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Well into August, the Jays finally see their expansion cousins for the first time. What to expect: Quality starts, great defence and a good bullpen that becomes great in the back end. In Rafael Soriano and Shigetoshi Hasegawa, the M's have the equivalents of a young Duane Ward and an overhanded Dan Quisenberry -- both in terms of statistics and usage versatility.

What not to expect: Offensive explosions, especially from the bottom of the order. There are some glaring holes in the Mariner lineup, and Jeff Nelson's views on the inability (or unwillingness) of management to fill them have become well-documented.

It's a tough draw for the slumpers in the Jays' lineup, but I like Garcia vs. Halladay tomorrow night. Mark Hendrickson pitches for the first time in front of friends and family tonight, and we at the Box wish him well.

I should also mention that here at Batter's Box, we have our very own jewel of the Pacific Northwest...and he's named John Gizzi. Hopefully he can add to this series' Scout with some local insight.

On to the Advance Scout!

* Lurches beware: The Mariners are 28-12 against lefty starters this season ...
* Bob Melvin is proud of his club's ability to manufacture runs, as they did in beating Andy Pettitte 2-1 on Saturday: "We scored both runs with situational hitting. That's been our strength this year -- we've won a lot of close games" ... Strangely, he didn't mention words like "pitching" and "bullpen" ...
* It was not in rarefied Halladay air, but Joel Pineiro (tonight's opponent) did have an eight-game personal winning streak going until he was rocked at Jacobs Field on Wednesday ... After two stellar back-to-back outings consisting of 16 shutout innings (with only five hits allowed total), Pineiro was a pinata against Cleveland, getting whacked for seven runs on ten hits in 2 2/3 IP ... Pineiro: "They hit everything...I have no excuses" ... When asked about the demise of his streak, Pineiro vowed to "start another one" tonight against the Jays ...
* Bret Boone's in a bit of a funk at the moment, going 3-for-24 (.125) over his last six, with one walk and 8 K's ... He's still slugging an outstanding .567, including .550 at spacious Safeco Field ... He comfortably leads the team with 92 RBI ... Mike Cameron surprised Boone with a USA Today article listing him as the frontrunner for AL MVP ... Boone: "I'm not crazy about personal awards, but it's very flattering...You play to win. Everything else is extra" ... Boone credited his off-season workout program for his durability this season: "My body feels about as good as it's going to feel in August" ...
* Ichiro's been Ichiro this year at 336/375/459 ... He's battling a few droughts, though: no walks since July 30; no steals since July 29; and no homers since July 25 (that was his career-high 10th) ... John McDonald had to make a great play on Wednesday to turn a double play against Ichiro. It was just the second GIDP all season for the speedster ... His throwing arm continues to surprise unsuspecting opponents, as he fired a laser to second base to force Jorge Posada in yesterday's game, turning an apparent Aaron Boone single into a frustrating fielder's choice ...
* Edgar Martinez hit three dingers in April, and then an outstanding 10 in May ... But he's only added seven home runs, total, since then ... He's been swinging the bat well, just not for power: 333/436/394 in August ...
* Tomorrow's opponent, Freddy Garcia, has pulled off the difficult accomplishment of losing six straight decisions on a very good team ... Heading into his June 1 start against the Twins, Garcia had a disappointing 5.54 ERA. He then seemed to get back on track over the course of June, going 5-0, 2.05 with 39 hits allowed in 44 IP ... But then came July, when we was simply horrendous: 0-4, 9.45 with 41 hits allowed in 26 2/3 IP ... Then he got absolutely smoked by the White Sox in his first August start -- but was much better last Thursday, giving up just two runs in 6 1/3 while getting outdueled by Billy Traber ... Melvin defended Garcia after Thursday's performance, given the trade rumours and clamouring of the press to send Freddy to the bullpen: "He's pitching with his back to the wall before he even goes out there...I give him credit, he had a nice performance" ... Garcia was decidedly less charitable to himself: "Yeah, I did better because I pitched more than two innings...But I gave up two home runs and it cost us the game" ... Garcia said he'd be willing to go to the bullpen if that's what it would take to work out his kinks ... Garcia was able to harness his control better in his last start by reducing his velocity -- an approach suggested by (who else?) Jamie Moyer ...
* Ben Davis is downright frosty, hitting just .114 over his last month ... He hasn't homered since May 27 ... He also badly bungled a bunt on Friday night that led to five unearned runs ...
* His platoon partner, Dan Wilson, has been mediocre at 252/289/341 ...
* Our old friend, John Olerud, frighteningly just turned 35 ... Johnny O's on-base percentage is still a respectable .378, but that's his lowest season total since he was a 24-year-old on the '92 Jays ...
* Wednesday's opponent, Ryan Franklin, has been alternating good and bad starts of late ... Bad news for the Jays: He got rocked in the Bronx on Friday night ... Franklin got a 1-1 fastball "just where I wanted on the inside" against Nick Johnson. Problem was, it was also just where Johnson wanted it -- and he crushed it for a grand slam ... The late-blooming Franklin, 30, is in just his third full season ... He's no fireballer, as he has yet to strike out more than five in a game this season ...
* Fodder for Jeff Nelson and his demand for offensive help? In spite of his "useful guy off the bench" impression in Oakland last season, John Mabry has not been the answer for the Mariners' pinch-hitting needs ... He's only dreaming of the Mendoza line at this point, going 162/305/324 ...
* Pesky utilityman Mark McLemore may have finally hit the wall in his 39th year, as he's at 213/300/302 on the season ...
* Pesky utilityman Rey Sanchez, however, has filled in admirably for Carlos Guillen ... He's 12-for-34 (.353) as a Mariner -- all singles ...
* Like McLemore, Willie Bloomquist isn't the answer at third base ... His season totals are muddling along at 238/311/317 ...
* The Jays are lucky to catch Mike Cameron at home, where he's only 234/315/438 ... Understandably, Cameron found it "puzzling" that the Mariners would deal Jeff Nelson to a potential playoff opponent ...
* Thursday's opponent, Gil Meche, is apparently over his July funk ... He's come through with three straight solid performances, including a two-hit masterpiece over eight innings on national television on Saturday ... He walked just one Yankee while striking out seven ... Eight innings was the most he's pitched in an appearance ... Meche: "For me, that was the biggest game I've ever pitched" ... Meche has come a long way since his season-long disability in 2001 and his year at AA San Antonio in 2002 ... He's still just 24, though ... Shigetoshi Hasegawa was particularly impressed with Meche's fastball on Saturday, which reached 97-98 mph: "Maybe he should be the closer" ...
* Randy Winn is hot of late, particularly from the right side ... He's hitting .400 on his current six-game hitting streak, with three doubles and a homer ...
* Armando Benitez struggled and gave up a run in his first inning of work as a Mariner ... In fairness to him, it was in Yankee Stadium ...
* OK, so he didn't pitch well in the All-Star Game. But here's Hasegawa's stats over his last twenty-two appearances: 25 IP, 20 H, zero runs (earned or unearned), 4 BB, 7 K ... That, my friends, is groundball-tastic. In fact, it's just silly ... His ERA on the season is down to 0.66, with a WHIP of 0.95 ... He's broken Edwin Nunez's club relief shutout-innings streak, set in 1988 ... According to Pat Gillick, Hasegawa prefers the longer outings he was once accustomed to ... He has no ego about closing. "Being the closer doesn't matter...Look at my fastball -- it's just 89, 90. I don't have a typical finishing pitch. I don't have a money ball" ... Hence the Benitez trade, so that the pitchers can be flip-flopped if necessary ...
* Rafael Soriano, not yet 24, has also been ridiculously lights-out in the 'pen ... Since July 8: 20 IP, 7 H, 1 R (a home run), 1 BB, 26 K ... That's just sick ... On the season: 31 2/3 IP, 17 H, 6 BB, 40 K, 1.42 ERA, .156 opposing average ... Soriano said he "wasn't rattled" by the crowd at Yankee Stadium -- and it showed; he was dominant in the Bronx ...
* Kazuhiro Sasaki made a rehab appearance with AAA Tacoma over the weekend, and could return against the Jays ... He's been sidelined since the start of interleague play with broken ribs ... Sasaki got lit up to the tune of two home runs pitching for Class A Everett last week, and consequently he and Bob Melvin have been vehemently disagreeing as to his big-league readiness ... Melvin couldn't have been happy with the radar gun readings showing Kaz topping out at 86 mph, or his A-ball ERA of 22.50 ... The "unsettled" nature of Sasaki's potential return was the basis for the Benitez trade, according to pitching coach Bryan Price ... Sasaki did, however, have an encouraging bullpen session with Melvin and Price on Thursday, throwing 71 pitches with good split-finger action ... Then he successfully closed out the game for AAA Tacoma yesterday with a shutout inning ...
* Both Sasaki and injured/discredited third baseman Jeff Cirillo will rejoin the team tonight, but won't be activated just yet ...]
* Carlos Guillen is working out again, but hasn't been able to take fielding or hitting practice due to his painful inflamed pelvis ...
* Dave Niehaus, 68, who's called Mariners games since the club's inception in 1977, wants to call a World Series before he retires ... Not to say he's a homer, but observe his signature call for a Mariners grand slam: "Break out the rye bread and mustard, Grandma! It's grand salami time!" ... O-kaaaay ...

Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH

9 Ichiro
6 Sanchez
4 Boone
DH Martinez
3 Olerud
8 Cameron
7 Winn
2 Wilson
5 Bloomquist

vs. RH

9 Ichiro
6 Sanchez
4 Boone
DH Martinez
3 Olerud
8 Cameron
7 Winn/Mabry
2 Davis/Wilson
5 McLemore/Bloomquist

Pitching Probables

Monday: RH Pineiro vs. Hendrickson
Tuesday: RH Garcia vs. Halladay
Wednesday: RH Franklin vs. Thurman
Thursday: RH Meche vs. Escobar

Bullpen Usage

Long: Mateo R, Putz R
Short: Benitez R
Setup: Soriano R, Rhodes L
Closer: Hasegawa R
Advance Scout: Mariners, August 11-14 | 8 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Chuck Van Den C - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#95003) #
Johnny O's on-base percentage is still a respectable .378, but that's his lowest season total since he was a 24-year-old on the '92 Jays ...

On an even more negative note, Olerud is slugging just .410, and that's only after a recent flurry of homeruns got him over the .400 hump.

Curiously, he's at 286/395/487 at home and 259/360/333 (with just one homerun) on the road.
Coach - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#95004) #
That's a scary bullpen that will only get better if Sasaki's OK; Mateo's also been terrific. Considering the more volatile nature of the Toronto 'pen, and the likelihood of close, low-scoring games, a split would be an encouraging way to begin the Fearsome Fourteen. Even that may depend on Escobar outduelling Meche, as it's a stretch to predict wins tonight or Wednesday.

Mark Hendrickson pitches for the first time in front of friends and family tonight

Let's hope he responds as well as Sparky did in Anaheim. The pride of Mt. Vernon was a two-sport star in high school and had a great hoops career at Washington State, leading the Cougars in rebounding four straight years to rank second on their all-time list. One thing's for sure, his ERA against the Mariners is about to go down. It's 135.00 after his nightmare big-league debut in relief a year ago.

Another homecoming of sorts is that of Aquilino Lopez, who pitched in Tacoma last year. He annoyed the Seattle brass when he aged five years one day, and Jays fans are grateful they cut him loose.

Bob Melvin is proud of his club's ability to manufacture runs

Melvin is doing just as well as I thought he would as a rookie manager. He deserved, but rarely got, credit for assisting impulsive hunchplayer Bob Brenly in the Arizona dugout. The M's needed a change; Lou was fed up when they did nothing at last year's deadline. Some might say worse than nothing, as they brought in Creek and Offerman. Instead of whining about players he doesn't have, like a third baseman, Melvin's figuring out ways to win with the guys he has.

What's Pat Gillick's status? Is he coming back for another year?
_DS - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#95005) #
Was Lopez left unprotected specifically because of the age increase, or was it due to his redundant status on the roster? I don't think the Mariners are missing him too much.
_Chuck Van Den C - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#95006) #
What's Pat Gillick's status? Is he coming back for another year?

Is there any evidence that he's even there now? ;)
_Mark - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#95007) #
Chuck, interesting point on the home/road splits. There was an article in the Ottawa Sun today suggesting that Olerud's recent hot streak was has been due to a change in the hitting background in center field at Safeco. Apparently the entire Mariners team has been hitting well since the background was changed. But if Olerud's road numbers are a lot worse that can't be the whole story.
_Jurgen - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#95008) #
Curiously, he's at 286/395/487 at home and 259/360/333 (with just one homerun) on the road.

BP's Triple Play with the Dodgers mentions something eerily similar with Hideo Nomo at Chavez Ravine.

In Johnny's case, however, I think we can chalk it up to sample size:

Olerud '02
Home .275/.384/.443 (.827 OPS)
Away .325/.422/.536 (.957 OPS)

Olerud '01
Home .285/.382/.495 (.877 OPS)
Away .319/.420/.451 (.870 OPS)

Olerud '00
Home .250/.348/.405 (.753 OPS)
Away .320/.435/.473 (.908 OPS)

From '00 to '02, Olerud's OPS is about 100 points higher on the road.
_Jurgen - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#95009) #
Coach:

Reading the two great Mariners' blogs, Mariner Musings and U.S.S. Mariner (co-authored by BP's Zumsteg and Cameron), it's clear they remain less than enthusiastic about Melvin--although they seem to be giving him more credit of late.
Coach - Monday, August 11 2003 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#95010) #
Jurgen, I picked the M's to win the World Serious this year, and Melvin was one of the reasons. When Lou went into the tank last summer, so did his team. I figured if you bring in a manager who wants to be there and get a left fielder as a bonus, you have to improve. I didn't expect a complete meltdown by Garcia or the Sasaki injury, and I thought Gillick would find a third baseman somewhere, so now I'm not sure they can go all the way, but if this ship sinks, it won't be the skipper's fault.
Advance Scout: Mariners, August 11-14 | 8 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.