Interesting. Scott says Vermilyea will start next year. Vermilyea prefers to be a reliever, but the Jays will get him more innings as a starter. I assume he will start in the FSL and look to move to New Haven mid year if things go well.

5 pitches for strikes!?! Wow.

I think the success that Vermilyea has had so far is an example of how much there still is to learn about park effects and competition of college players. (sounds like a good question for JP)

I'm sure if the Jays were expecting this kind of perfomance out of Vermilyea they would have taken him much earlier than the 9th round.

I'm sure if the Jays were expecting this kind of perfomance out of Vermilyea they would have taken him much earlier than the 9th round.

I'm sure every team would have taken Vermilyea in the first 3 rounds. That type of performance can't be overlooked.

Wow...it says he throws a 93 mph fastball. I can't believe that any pitcher who throws 93 mph with four secondary pitches and has any kind of control can last until the 9th round. Either his peripheral numbers must not have been very good in college, or else he's added velocity in the minors.

I guess despite everything, we should keep in mind that Jason Arnold threw a no hitter in his first pro season and still hit that wall in AAA. It's great to see Jamie get off to the amazing start but like everyone else in Auburn he still has a lot of levels to prove himself at. And of course they have to get him to start with that assortment of pitches. We'll see if he can continue that kind of performance over longer stretches.

Either his peripheral numbers must not have been very good in college, or else he's added velocity in the minors.

Jamie was nothing special at all in College and his being drafted, maybe more than anyone else in the last few drafts, can only be attributed to excellent scouting.

In 2002, at the U of New Mexico, he was absolutely spanked to the tune of a 6.25 ERA in 131 IP. He did, however, have 107 Ks to only 39 BB. This year, he was better with a 4.27 ERA, 15 HR allowed, 26 BB and 112 Ks in 126.1 IP but those stats aren't what I'd call fabulous.

Spicol, you're right that they're not "fabulous" but you have to take those nubmers in context. Not only does UNM play at 5,000 feet at home (the incredibly dry air also makes for slightly lighter baseballs, which has a slight effect) they play their conference games in the Mounatin West, which gives a new meaning to the term "hitter's paradise".

The league ERA in 2002 was 6.61, and New Mexico's team ERA was *8.29*. Mountain West hitters averaged a batting average of .326. So if Vermilyea got beat around a lot, it wasn't as awful as it looked, as he was still more than two runs better-than-team and he did lead the conference in strikeouts. His numbers weren't a patch on Royce Ring's no matter how you slice them, but Ring played most of his games at sea level.

UNM were also easily the league's worst team in 2002, indicating that their fielding wasn't exactly terrific. But still,

The league ERA this year was 6.47 and UNM were better but still at 6.59. In the average Lobos game, *each* team scored 8.78 runs. Vermilyea's 4.27 ERA was second in the league, and he led in strikeouts again.

The 2003 Park Factor for all UNM home games was 1.44, meaning the Lobos scord and allowed 44% more runs in home games than in road games - this suggests a discount of 22% to ERA, making Vermilyea's ERA+ a relatively robust (6.59/(4.27*.78))*100 = 198.

I used the wrong number in the ERA calculation. Vermilyea's 2003 ERA+ at UNM was 194 and not 198.

Craig...I guess I was looking at the numbers out of context and he was obviously better than at first glance. But UNM and the MWC aren't even close to being included in discussions of college baseball powerhouses. With that in mind and with his 2002 having been pretty average, I still think that we can chalk this one up to the scouts...nothing in the college numbers suggests what he's done so far with the Jays was to be expected.

I agree, nothing in his college record suggests he's as good as he's been. The MWC isn't a bad conference, but it's hardly elite. Good job of scouting indeed!

Dang, the story's gone from the Web page, and the ADS archives are pay-per-view. Too slow off the mark to see it. If anyone happened to have captured the full text before it disappeared, I'd be much appreciative if you could send it along.