In the Farm Report thread, David linked to this feature on Harden's friend and neighbour, Vince Perkins, whose progress, while not as spectacular, remains impressive.

"For the past few years, we've really helped each other a lot," said Harden, who started the season with 15 2/3 perfect innings between Class AA and Class AAA. "I was struggling with my command and he was a little wilder. I just figured it out last year. He's slowly figuring it out, too."

While I think Harden is going to be an outstanding pitcher, I fear that he will regret sounding as confident as he did in that article. Eventually, he will get lit up and have to make some adjustments.

Though I suppose you never know: perhaps he will just keep on overwhelming opposing hitters, and will become the greatest pitcher of his generation. Somebody has to be.

One thing is for sure: if they ever have one of those international baseball tournaments where major leaguers are allowed to play for their home countries, Canada will have a good #1 starting pitcher.

While I think Harden is going to be an outstanding pitcher, I fear that he will regret sounding as confident as he did in that article.

He just said that he doesn't "expect" to get lit up. That's great. I would hope that no major league pitchers DO expect to. There's a fine line between confidence (Harden) and cockiness (It's Lima-time!). The latter can be destructive but the former is just as valuable in a pitcher's arsenal as a 12-6 curve and probably more so. I hope that Harden is able to keep that confidence after the first time he gets lit up, unexpectedly of course.

It's stubbornness that would be the really evil character trait. If he starts to get rocked and refuses to make adjustments, well, then that's a problem. We'll have to see.

"It's stubbornness that would be the really evil character trait. If he starts to get rocked and refuses to make adjustments, well, then that's a problem."

Some of the A's commentators have pointed out that Harden's fastball velocity has gone down 3-5 mph since he came to the majors. At which time pitchng coach Rick Peterson also changed his stance on the mound. Coincidence? Peterson will not comment on it, but has said repeatedly that Harden is tipping his slow pitches.

Either Harden will be punished for this, or more likely he will be even more unbeatable when he irons out those problems...(And I will be even more mad that I lost in BBFL's sweepstakes to claim him of waivers).

I've seen half of Harden's starts -- in addition to the one I saw in Tacoma -- and I've been impressed with the utter lack of hard-hit balls against Harden. So far, each team he's faced has looked like they were guessing, and even when they've guessed right, they've been late, because his motion is so smooth and easy. When I saw Harden in the minors, his velocity was less than it has been so far in the bigs. One can never tell with radar guns, but it seems Harden is throwing harder now. His splitter is also vastly improved from when I saw it; he couldn't locate it anywhere near the strike zone. Now he's throwing like it should be thrown: it starts out a strike, then drops out of the zone, so even if it's hit, it's going to be a weak grounder.

That said, he's going to get peppered sooner or later, as 99 percent of young pitchers do. My hunch is it won't be this year, however. Rather, like Barry Zito when he came up, Harden will continue to dominate this year, but then he'll have a fairly rough first half of 2004, before he settles down somewhat. By 2005? Let's just say that Roy Hallady's chances of winning a Cy Young will be that much diminished.

Anyone know if Harden lines up against the same opponent twice before the end of the season? To me, that'll be one of his first tests. Potentially, since he may have a tendancy to tip his pitches, Harden could be the pitching equivelant to Phelps inability to hit anything that doesn't come fast and straight...Though from reading about his ability and willingness to learn and adjust accordingly, I have a feeling that those flaws will most certainly be worked on and eliminated by the end of spring '04.

So, if you a choice, who would you prefer to have on your team long-term: Rich Harden or Mark Teixiera?

(I am in a keeper strat league with a top pick this year and I am trying to make this decision based on merit rather than emotion.)