A few days late (thanks to a crashed hard drive and a Long Weekend out of town) and more than a few words long (5,500, at my last count), here's the July edition of the Blue Jays' Farm Report. In almost all cases, I've used the stats from August 1 for consistency, although in some places I've used August 5 numbers when a guy has just been called up or has made tremendous strides. I'm rushing this one into production slightly, so keen-eyed readers' comments, corrections and updates will be welcomed. Enjoy.
Syracuse Skychiefs (AAA)
Jimmy Alvarez, SS/2B
256 AB, .273/.363/.414, 10 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 37 BB, 67 K, 11 SB, 4 CS
This time last month, Jorge Sequea was pulling ahead of Alvarez in the 2004 Likeliest 25th Man Sweepstakes. Jimmy has now reasserted himself with a great July that raised his OPS 80 points and saw a much-improved BB/K rate. He’s back on track and should be given a crack at heading north next spring.
Jason Arnold, RHP
4-5, 4.33, 15 GS, 87 IP, 88 H, 36 BB, 65 K, 12 HR, 17.1% KBF
Kent referred to Arnold as a work in progress, and that sums it up nicely. By way of illustration, compare Jason’s stats to that of another Syracuse hurler:
Vinny Chulk
6-7, 4.25, 16 GS, 82 IP, 83 H, 33 BB, 61 K, 11 HR, 16.7% KBF
So close to identical it’s almost scary, but Arnold’s ceiling is far higher than Chulk’s, a soft-tosser whose likeliest position in the big leagues will be middle relief. I fully expect that at some point – and it may not be till next April, upon his return to Syracuse – Arnold’s going to make a last few adjustments, put it all together and reel off a string of solid starts. He looks like a slow starter and a strong finisher; I like those guys.
Kevin Cash, C
299 AB, .264/.322/.415, 26 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 25 BB, 73 K
Cash has made strides with the bat recently, finally pushing his slugging percentage over .400 and doubling his home run total in the last month. Nonetheless, his strike-zone judgment, a strength last season, has really suffered this year, and a measly 5 homers doesn’t justify whiffing in a quarter of his at-bats. But his calling card is still his defence, and it’s still outstanding. Had Greg Myers been dealt at the deadline, we would probably have seen Cash in Toronto soon afterwards. As it now stands, with Tom Wilson really fading in the second half, Cash looks positioned to open next season in a L-R combo with Myers, working his way towards full-time duty over the course of the season. What happens after that depends on a fellow named Guillermo Quiroz.
Gabe Gross, RF
75 AB, .267/.368/.413, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 10 BB, 22 K
Gabe’s stats are among those already slightly outdated by the delay in posting. Already in August he’s pushed his OPS up to 800 – pretty remarkable, considering how much he struggled upon arrival in Syracuse. We still need at least 100 ABs to start analyzing Gross’s performance at AAA and the timetable it implies, but his rapid improvement bodes well. I’m not excited by the 10/22 BB/K rate, though, especially since his rate so far in August is 0/8. I think his ETA remains mid-2004.
Juan Pena, RHP
0-1, 7.56, 3 SV, 8 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 2 HR, 18.9% KBF
Not the answer at closer. Pena struggled mightily upon his promotion to Syracuse before going on the DL July 21; I’m not sure with what, but I imagine it’s related to his previous arm surgery.
Simon Pond, 3B
128 AB, .320/.360/.531, 15 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 14 K
He’s slowed down considerably from his hot start, but he’s still hitting steadily enough (10 doubles in July). If he can maintain an 800+ OPS through August, I think the Blue Jays might try to find a place for him on the roster next season. A few more walks would help his cause considerably.
Jorge Sequea, 2B
173 AB, .266/.337/.376, 13 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 16 BB, 26 K, 3 SB, 4 CS
Jorge has dropped behind Jimmy Alvarez, at least offensively, but he’s maintaining a decent eye at the plate. Both of these guys could end up on the Toronto-Syracuse shuttle next season.
Mike Smith, RHP
7-5, 4.56, 20 G, 16 GS, 104 IP, 107 H, 47 BB, 63 K, 10 HR, 13.8% KBF
Looks like Pasqual Coco v. 2.0. to me.
Jayson Werth, OF
129 AB, .264/.326/.465, 14 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 12 BB, 35 K, 7 SB, 1 CS
More outdated stats: a white-hot start to August has knocked Jayson’s OPS all the way up to 873, and that was on top of a great July that saw him rescue his top-prospect status from the precipice. Werth’s BB/K ratio is still pretty unimpressive, and considering his rangy build and big looping swing, it may remain so. But guys who can play catcher or centerfield, steal bases and hit home runs are extremely intriguing when they show off their skills like Jayson’s doing. I still think Werth is a top contender to be dealt, but if Frank Catalanotto isn’t in the plans for next year, the club may give Jayson 400 ABs in right field in 2004 to showcase him for a deal. He’s already done a fine job rebounding from a dismal start to 2003.
New Haven Ravens (AA)
Russ Adams, SS
171 AB, .275/.337/.339, 4 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 16 BB, 29 K, 5 SB, 1 CS
As of this writing (Aug. 5), Adams’ average was all the way up to .293 (.348 OBP), and he seems to be recovering from that nosedive he experienced soon after his promotion. My only concern, and it’s not a great one at this stage, is his walk rate, which has dropped to the organization-minimum 1 in 10 at-bats. But Adams’ strike-zone judgment is the last thing I’m worried about him losing, so I’m sure that will come around. It’s important to remember that unlike more spectacular fellow prospects like Gil Quiroz and Alexis Rios, Adams’ numbers will tend to understate his impact. The organization eventually expects Russ to (a) play terrific middle-infield defence, (b) put up a .365 OBP in the leadoff spot, (c) steal at least 20-25 bases while hardly ever getting caught, and (d) score about a zillion runs. He should be doing all those things in Toronto absolutely no later than September 2005.
David Bush, RHP
4-1, 2.36, 8 GS, 45 IP, 41 H, 14 BB, 39 K, 3 HR, 20.1% KBF
Oh, this is nice. Update: he’s now at 5-1, 2.05, after a stellar one-hitter over seven shutout innings on the weekend (1 BB, 9 Ks, moving his ratio to 15/48); Bush has now thrown 20 consecutive scoreless innings at Double-A, just one full year after being drafted; don’t underestimate how incredible that is. One last stat line, his career numbers from Auburn, Dunedin and New Haven combined: 165 IP, 129 H, 33 BB, 171 K. The race between Bush and Dustin McGowan to be the first to reach Toronto is on; let’s root for a flat-footed tie.
Paul Chiafreddo, C
132 AB, .280/.373/.439, 4 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 16 BB, 34 K
Chiaffredo makes his first and quite possibly last appearance on these lists. He’s here because he’s a catcher who’s displaying a strong bat and decent strike-zone judgment. He’s not been here before because he’s 27 and this is his third straight season at Double-A; last year at Tennessee, he hit a sterling .194 with a 13/81 BB/K rate, which was pretty much in line with his career numbers. He may be a late bloomer – Kevin Cash is 26 – but more likely, this is his 15 minutes of Farm Report fame.
Jordan DeJong, RHP
3-4, 6.00, 17 SV, 6 G, 0 GS, 15 IP, 19 H, 13 BB, 14 K, 0 HR, 14/75 KBF
I wrote elsewhere about how JP Ricciardi is not especially patient, and is quite willing to promote players in order to challenge them and determine whether they can help out the organization. In most cases, the rapid promotions are successful, or at least undamaging. I’m starting to think Jordan DeJong might be an exception. After a stunning debut in the Rookie Pioneer League last summer, Jordan started strong with Dunedin this season but ran into difficulties as summer wore on, giving up more hits and losing command of the strike zone altogether. Nonetheless, the Jays promoted him to Double-A, and the move has been altogether bad. The 17 saves belie a pitcher who’s allowing more than two baserunners an inning and whose KBF ratio is mediocre for a reliever. I’m hoping that this is just a lengthy period of adjustment, but DeJong is not an overpowering guy: he’s got four good pitches that, when he throws them for strikes, makes him very tough; when he can’t throw them for strikes, as is now pretty clearly the case, he gets rocked. I think DeJong was promoted too soon, and he’ll need to go back to A-Ball to find his command again, and maybe his confidence.
Dave Gassner, LHP
6-4, 3.00, 30 G, 14 GS, 111 IP, 107 H, 28 BB, 68 K, 8 HR, 14.9% KBF
He’s my guy until such time as he proves he’s nothing more than a left-handed Pete Bauer. That time is not yet here. You go, David!
Tyrell Godwin, CF
Dunedin
322 AB, .273/.348/.332, 16 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 8 HBP, 29 BB, 39 K, 20 SB, 7 CS
Tyrell did what he had to do: he showed the Blue Jays he could stay healthy over the course of a season and posted the organization-minimum number of walks. Add to that a knack for getting plunked at the plate and making contact with the bat, as well as some decent base-stealing skills, and you can see why Godwin was promoted to New Haven to fill the roster spot created by John-Ford Griffin’s injury. It’s a good move: Godwin is certainly old enough (24) to be in AA, and whatever power he might have was being drained by the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Godwin can hit, run and play the field in decent measure; if he can maintain this performance at Double-A and find enough power to crack even a .400 SLG, he could become a more serious contender for prospect status.
John-Ford Griffin, LF
373 AB, .279/.361/.461, 23 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB, 85 K
A strong Double-A campaign for Griffin was halted by a stress fracture in his foot last week; I don’t know what the severity of the injury is, but stress fractures are a tad more serious than strained hammies. Griffin was reportedly dealt away by the Yankees because they thought he’d only ever be a singles hitter; just another reminder that the Bombers aren’t omniscient. Power has been John-Ford’s calling card this season, to a degree that may even have surprised the Jays. The walks have been terrific, and the average has really come around since early this season, but those strikeouts still bother me, even for a power hitter. I’d hate to see Griffin hit the major leagues and become Travis Lee. No need to panic, though. He remains a very intriguing hitting prospect, unique among Jay farmhands for that combination of power and patience.
Dustin McGowan, RHP
5-0, 3.42, 9 GS, 47 IP, 49 H, 7 BB, 48 K, 1 HR, 24.2% KBF
Like Bush, we shouldn’t forget how quickly McGowan has matured from raw hard thrower to dominant top prospect. This is his fourth pro season, and his K/BB rate has never topped 2.7/1; so far this year, at Dunedin and New Haven combined, it’s 3.5/1. I fully expect McGowan and Bush to debut at Syracuse next April, though it’s always possible – though I think unlikely – that they could come so fast that one or the both of them head north next spring in the bullpen. Stranger things have happened.
Adam Peterson, RHP
0-1, 4.15, 11 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 10 H, 5 BB, 9 K, 0 HR
Bush and DeJong are the only other members of the 2002 draft class to make it to New Haven already, and Adam Peterson might not have advanced this far had concerns about college overwork not led him to a bullpen assignment. His performance so far places him between Bush and DeJong, not as dominant as the former nor as scattered as the latter. After a brilliant performance out of the pen in Dunedin, Peterson has been holding his own with the Ravens, though 8 innings tell us pretty much next to nothing. The Blue Jays likely will wait to see his final AA numbers before deciding what to do with him next.
Guillermo Quiroz, C
307 AB, .287/.367/.515, 22 2B, 0 3B, 16 HR, 34 BB, 67 K
After a blistering April that left him with an 1.100 OPS on May 1, everyone knew Guillermo Quiroz was going to cool down. And although he did, he held pretty steady thereafter:
June 1: .312/.386/.582
July 1: 283/.378/.533
August 1: 287/.367/.515
His current 882 OPS would be terrific for a corner outfielder; for a catcher, it’s fantastic. Quiroz has sort of a history of hot starts and cold finishes, and he needed to prove he could produce consistently over a full season. He did, and his stock within the organization (and outside of it) has never been higher. The Jays will either sell high or groom him to be the Opening Day catcher in April 2005.
Cameron Reimers, RHP
9-3, 2.65, 22 G, 20 GS, 125 IP, 127 H, 31 BB, 78 K, 6 HR, 14.8% KBF
His relatively few strikeouts mark Reimers as a suspect prospect, especially with a 1/1 IP/H ratio and a walk rate that should be lower than it is. His KBF rate is about as low as you’ll see on any prospect list. Cam looks like minor-league rotation filler at this point, and his ERA should soon rise accordingly. Any similarity between Reimers’ numbers and those of Dave Gassner should be dismissed immediately.
Dominic Rich, 2B
277 AB, .253/.324/.332, 17 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 21 BB, 32 K
It’s looking more and more like a lost season for Rich, who led the Florida State League in batting last season and held his own upon promotion to Tennessee. But either because his springtime groin injury ruined his year or because AA pitchers successfully adjusted to him, 2003 has been rough. Rich is not terribly athletic and isn’t gifted defensively, so his bat and his grit are going to have to push him to the majors. Right now, he’s low on fuel.
Alexis Rios, CF
397 AB, .335/.386/.494, 27 2B, 9 3B, 6 HR, 29 BB, 70 K, 8 SB, 2 CS, 18 DP
After saying nothing but nice things about Alexis all season, I’d now like to sound a few notes of caution. Unlike Quiroz, Lexi’s descent from his mammoth April has been both slow and steady. He still retains a marvelous 880 OPS, but his power has been leveling off, and far more problematically, his BB/K ratio has declined to 29/70 after a 5/20 July. The doubles and triples have been great, but the raw home run power is still only occasional. And his 18 double plays lead the Ravens. Alexis projects as a high-average, low-walk player – he clearly understands the strike zone better than ever before, but his style is still to hack first and take walks later. Modify your expectations of his arrival time in Toronto: his major-league EqA is still just .247. He remains a top, if not the top prospect, in the system, but he’ll need at least a year in Triple-A before he sniffs Skydome.
Dunedin Blue Jays (High-A)
Jesse Harper, RHP
10-3, 2.74, 21 G, 19 GS, 105 IP, 90 H, 25 BB, 78 K, 4 HR, 18.3% KBF
Jesse is hanging out right at the edge of being interesting. Pitching prospects in the FSL need to have lights-out numbers, especially in the strikeout categories; it’s a pitchers’ league and the hitters are still pretty overmatched. Harper keeps the ball in the park, doesn’t allow a lot of hits and has decent control, all to the good; what he lacks is the ability to simply dominate hitters, as reflected in his relatively low K totals. But that KBF keeps climbing, slowly but surely, and his July BB/K was 7/21. He’s doing something right, and he’ll keep my attention until such time as he doesn’t.
Aaron Hill, SS
Dunedin
26 AB, .269/.355/.308, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
Auburn
122 AB, .361/.446/.492, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 16 BB, 20 K
After ripping apart the NY-Penn League, Toronto’s first-round choice in the 2003 draft has been promoted all the way up to the FSL – a big jump, but one justified by the ease with which Hill was manhandling opposing pitchers in short-season ball. After eight games at Dunedin, he’s sporting a .269/.355/.308 line, a fine start. The early line has Hill as the favourite to play shortstop for the Jays later this decade, with Russ Adams flipping over to second, but we’ll see about that. So far, so good.
Brandon League, RHP
3-3, 3.21, 8 G, 7 GS, 42 IP, 39 H, 15 BB, 19 K, 0 HR, 10.5% KBF
Very fine, considering that Brandon is just 20 years old and is in his fourth league in two seasons (Pioneer, NY-Penn, Sally, FSL). Obviously the strikeouts haven’t arrived yet, and his control isn’t as sharp as he doubtless would like, but for a guy barely out of his teens going up against older and tougher competition, this is terrific. Watch for him to climb the organizational ladder at the same rate his strikeouts climb; but also keep in mind that League is at least three years away from the majors, and JP probably doesn’t feel like waiting that long. If packaging League can help bring back ML-ready pitching, the Blue Jays will do it in a second.
Justin Maureau, LHP
3-4, 5.59, 27 G, 3 GS, 37 IP, 44 H, 25 BB, 28 K, 0 HR, 15.3% KBF
It’s also looking like a lost season for Justin Maureau, which is unfortunate considering how badly the Blue Jays need a solid lefthander. Right now he’s just drowning out there, and it’s possible he could get a breather by going down to Charleston and trying again. His arm is too good to give up on, but the renaissance may have to start in 2004.
Vince Perkins, RHP
5-5, 1.61, 61 IP, 20 R, 11 ER, 37 H, 38 BB, 48 K, 1 HR, 19.0% KBF
A few things of importance here. First, Vince’s ERA is misleading, as almost half of the runs he’s allowed have been unearned. Second, you won’t see too many prospects whose hits and walks allowed are almost identical: his stuff is impressive, but his control really is a problem. Third, a move to the bullpen would neither be unexpected nor entirely a bad thing: some guys just have limited repertoires more suited to relief roles. Perkins just got hammered last night, as it happens, 6 runs in 2 IP with 5 walks. But there are hopeful signs: his KBF rate has risen in the last month from 16.9% to 19.0%, and his July BB/K was an improved 16/27. Perkins didn’t dominate the Sally League by accident: his stuff is real. He’s take longer to arrive, but he’ll arrive.
Chad Pleiness, RHP
6-5, 2.85, 19 GS, 110 IP, 93 H, 47 BB, 79 K, 9 HR, 16.8% KBF
Things are going in the wrong direction for Big Bad Chad: fewer strikeouts, higher ERA, too many walks. He lacks one outstanding pitch, and that may be coming back to bite him a little. He still has a great deal of promise, but like his teammate Vince, he needs to turn those BBs into Ks. He might get a trial in New Haven next year in order to push him harder.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP
Dunedin
0-0, 1 SV, 0.00, 3 G, 9.0 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 26.4% KBF
Auburn
5-1, 2.37, 9 G, 2 GS, 30 IP, 22 H, 5 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 44.5% KBF
Hello. After toying with the NY-Penn League, including striking out almost half the batters he faced, 2003 9th-rounder Vermilyea got kicked upstairs to the Florida State League. As you can see, he’s hardly breaking a sweat there either. Vermilyea is not a fireballer – his fastball is consistently around 90 – but movement and command of four other pitches – slider, splitter, curveball and nascent change – have made him virtually untouchable thus far. He’s stated a preference for bullpen work, which is nice, but I’ve stated a preference to work for the Hawaiian State Bar too. Vermilyea was moved to the starting rotation at Auburn before his promotion, and although he’s worked out of the pen in Dunedin thus far, he’s been making longer, multi-inning appearances there. It’s way too early to tell about his role or the pace of his advancement, but in the meantime, these numbers make for prettier viewing than a meteor shower.
Jason Waugh, OF
172 AB, .308/.390/.459, 9 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 24 BB, 33 K, 0 SB, 3 CS
Here’s another new name on these lists, but Jason Waugh is unlikely to drop off anytime soon. A 2002 11th-round draft pick out of St. Mary’s College of California, Waugh had a middling pro debut at Auburn last year, .243/.327/.403 in 255 AB – though with 14 doubles, 9 homers and a 31/50 BB/K rate, his peripherals were strong. He was moved up to Charleston to start 2003 and struggled: .209/.262/.295 in 139 ABs with a 10/30 BB/K rate. So the obvious solution was to promote him again, right? The Blue Jays did, and Waugh exploded. His .459 slugging percentage is very good for the FSL, and 24 walks in 172 ABs is solid. This didn’t come out of the blue: in his final season at St. Mary’s, Jason posted a whopping .399/.447/.734 line with 14 HRs and an 18/21 BB/K rate in just 203 at-bats. Keep an eye on Waugh; he looks like a sleeper.
Charleston Alley-Cats (Low-A)
D.J. Hanson, RHP
6-10, 3.27, 20 GS, 104.2 IP, 91 H, 50 BB, 73 K, 4 HR, 16.7% KBF
It’s been a step-back season for DJ, a 1999 6th-rounder from high school who missed all of 2001 with an injury. His comeback season in Auburn last year was terrific, 50 strong innings with a sub-1 WHIP and more K’s than IP. But he’s struggled with his control at Charleston this season and hasn’t had the same strikeout rate. He’ll likely have to repeat this grade before graduating to Dunedin.
Rodney Medina, OF
350 AB, .271/.339/.434, 17 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 36 BB, 41 K
Medina continues to build on his status as the Alley-Cats’ best hitter, and even if that’s like being the most talented member of A-Ha, it’s still noteworthy. His BB/K ratio in July was 15/11 and his OPS rose 50 points. Rodney is showing pretty good power for the Sally, although it’s his second season in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bumped up to Dunedin any day now, especially with Tyrell Godwin’s promotion.
Miguel Negron, OF
109 AB, .303/.330/.422, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 16 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
Negron, the bargain-basement first-round pick written off by most of us years ago, was making good progress before injuring his hamstring in mid-June. We’ll check in on him again next month.
Sandy Nin, RHP
4-7, 2.58, 19 GS, 108 IP, 104 H, 13 BB, 76 K, 3 HR, 17.6% KBF
Warning signs. Nin’s June slowdown has continued into July, and his KBF rate has fallen from 21.5% on June 1 to 19.2% on July 1 to 17.6% on August 1. He’s still demonstrating phenomenal command, but increasingly he’s not fooling many batters. Nin is small, just 6’0” and 170 lbs, so he may be tiring from the innings and the long summer. A bullpen assignment might be in his future.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP
5-3, 2.74, 19 G, 17 GS, 92 IP, 80 H, 25 BB, 52 K, 6 HR, 13.8% KBF
Ramirez remains a fringe prospect, but his BB/K rate in July was a decent 7/16, and he continued to allow fewer hits than IP. With that low strikeout rate, Ismael is conducting a tightrope act, and he could fall off any time. We’ll be here if he does.
Charles Talanoa, RHP
Charleston
1-1, 4.24, 4 GS, 17 IP, 20 H, 9 BB, 13 K, 0 HR, 16.4% KBF
Auburn
2-2, 4.22, 5 GS, 21 IP, 19 H, 8 BB, 25 K, 0 HR, 27.4% KBF
The Jays’ 14th-round pick in 2000 out of a California community college, Talanoa is a brute (6’5”, 230 lbs) who spent two years in Medicine Hat, the latter of which showed great potential (79 IP, 77 H, 23 BB, 91 K). He was dominating hitters at Auburn, so the organization bumped him up to Charleston, where he’s been doing decently. He’s someone to keep an eye on.
Tracy Thorpe, RHP
1-1, 3.63, 11G, 0 GS, 17 IP, 17 H, 9 BB, 11 K, 2 HR, 14.2% KBF
Another monster (6’4”, 250 lbs), Thorpe played some football before being taken in the 2000 draft’s 11th round out of a Florida high school. He was coming into his own in his third pro season (2002) when he tore the labrum in his pitching shoulder last June. The surgery was successful and he’s come back sooner than expected, but his numbers reflect the difficulties pitchers face immediately following surgery. 2003 will probably be spent finding out if Thorpe left his 97-mph fastball on the operating table; if not, we can expect to see better results next spring.
John Wesley, RHP
2-5, 3.48, 8 GS, 41 IP, 38 H, 13 BB, 32 K, 2 HR, 18.9% KBF
What is it with the Jays and big-boned pitchers? Wesley the Crusher (6’6”, 230 lbs) throws in the mid-90s and has a decent curve and splitter in his arsenal as well. After a brief but excellent debut at Medicine Hat last season, John’s doing just fine in Charleston this year. Someone else to tag and track.
Auburn Doubledays (Short-Season A)
Josh Banks, RHP
5-1, 2.97, 9 GS, 39 IP, 42 H, 6 BB, 46 K, 1 HR, 27.8% KBF
The 2003 2nd-rounder is doing great. Maybe a few more hits than he’d like, but 40 professional innings gives you about as much useful information as the scrolling newsbar on CBC Newsworld. His ceiling is high and his advancement should be rapid.
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP
0-1, 2.14, 10 SV, 19 G, 0 GS, 21 IP, 15 H, 4 BB, 35 K, 1 HR, 42.1% KBF
Easy winner of the Best Jay Farmhand Handle, Bubbie was a starter at Tennessee Tech but has been used exclusively as a reliever since joining the Jays last year. He’s a classic short pitcher (5’11, 180), and there have been some character issues raised, but you cannot argue with a 4/35 BB/K rate. He might be brought along more slowly if he needs to do some growing up, but the arm sure looks good from here.
Vito Chiaravolloti, 1B
134 AB, .351/.457/.612, 12 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 24 BB, 35 K
Simply insane numbers. I wrote an entry elsewhere detailing Vito’s history and how his selection looks like a steal. Jason Perry, who ripped up the Pioneer League before settling into mediocrity at Dunedin and subsequently being traded, isn’t necessarily a good comp: Auburn may be just one step up from rookie ball, but it’s a big step, and the NY-Penn tends to be a pitcher’s league. That’s not to say we have the next Carlos Delgado on our hands, but even after 100 ABs, Vito may already be the best corner-infield prospect in the organization. He’ll move to Dunedin soon enough, and that’s when the picture will start to become a little clearer.
Danny Core, RHP
4-0, 3.52, 10 G, 0 GS, 30 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 23 K, 2 HR, 19.4% KBF
In among all these amazing stats, Dan’s numbers look relatively pedestrian, but he’s still off to a fine start. It’d be more impressive if he was starting, though.
Mike Galloway, OF
108 AB, .324/.422/.500, 7 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 16 BB, 31 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
A Canadian kid, from St. Thomas, Ontario, Galloway went to the University of Miami (the Ohio version) and posted a 1.228 OPS in his senior year. The Blue Jays grabbed him in the 14th round in 2002 and sent him to Medicine Hat, where he scuffled in a brief audition. No scuffling at Auburn, though: great power, good eye at the plate, and playing a fine centerfield to boot. Nice beginning.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP
4-1, 1.50, 8 GS, 36 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 37 K, 1 HR, 25.8% KBF
The last lefty who looked this good in his pro debut with the Blue Jays was Justin Maureau. That’s not meant to be a knock against Isenberg, who’s also off to a terrific start, but only as a gentle reminder that pitching prospects can disappear faster than loudmouthed tough guys in horror movies.
Shaun Marcum, RHP
0-0, 1.88, 2 SV, 9 G, 0 GS, 14 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 20 K, 1 HR, 37.7% KBF
The last reliever who looked this good in his pro debut with the Blue Jays was Jordan DeJong. Okay, I’ll knock it off. Marcum’s 2/20 BB/K rate certainly hints at something special. The organization needs good bullpen arms, and he may rise faster than some of his fellow 2003 draftees as a result.
Tom Mastny, RHP
4-0, 2.62, 8 GS, 34 IP, 32 H, 6 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 26.2% KBF
Another guy with an outstanding walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Jays received a lot of praise for their 2002 draft, with Baseball America calling it in the best in the game, but the 2003 draft class is having an even better debut. There’s a whole lot to like in Auburn this year.
Juan Peralta, 2B/SS
178 AB, .275/.361/.376, 10 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 23 BB, 33 K, 9 SB, 3 CS
Even though he just turned 20, 2003 is Juan’s fourth season with the organization. A free-agent signing out of the Dominican, Juan weighs 150 pounds soaking wet and was briefly considered for the Tobey Maguire part in Seabiscuit. Peralta’s bat has been a little slow coming around, but his strike-zone judgment is remarkable for someone so young: coming into this season, he’d amassed 108 walks in 825 at-bats. With doubles power already and good baserunning skills, Juan will soon be turning some heads in the organization.
AJ Porfirio, OF
170 AB, .300/.372/.447, 4 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 19 BB, 37 K, 2 SB, 2 CS
He’s old for the league (24 in December) and this is his second go-round the NY-Penn, but 2002 30th-rounder Porfirio is certainly hitting his stride now: excellent extra-base power in the early going and a decent batting eye. He’d better hurry, though.
Ryan Roberts, 3B
134 AB, .313/.404/.478, 2 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 35 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
How does a .422/.514/.765 line grab you? That’s what Roberts posted in his last season (2003) at the University of Texas-Arlington, with a 42/31 BB/K rate in just 230 ABs. Add in 16 homers and 13 steals, and the question becomes how in the world he lasted till the 18th round this past June. Ryan may not have Vito’s raw power, but he’s pretty close to the complete package offensively. He gets very little attention, but he’s Auburn’s sleeper bat.
Pulaski Blue Jays (Rookie)
Jeremy Acey, 2B/SS
124 AB, .282/.401/.379, 9 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 HBP, 14 BB, 15 K, 5 SB, 2 CS
All I want to say about this guy is this: I’ve never seen anyone with more HBPs than doubles and nearly as many plunks as strikeouts. One of two truly unique stat lines in Pulaski.
Robinson Diaz, C
97 AB, .443/.462/.619, 12 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 10 K
You’ve heard all about Diaz already elsewhere at BB, so all I’ll add is that he turns 20 next month, he was a free-agent Dominican signing who entered the organization at 18, and that he’s yet another intriguing catching prospect in an organization that seems to roll them out on an assembly line.
Joey Reiman, C/1B
108 AB, .324/.436/.472, 14 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 HBP, 18 BB, 28 K
Speaking of outstanding catching prospects … I didn’t even know there was a Grand Canyon University until Toronto selected Reiman from it in the 16th round this past summer. Excellent strike-zone command and nascent power make me think his upside may actually be higher than Diaz’s.
Nick Thomas, 1B/OF
118 AB, .288/.404/.508, 9 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 23 BB, 31 K
Looks great so far. I’m running out of interesting things to say. Sorry.
Jayce Tingler, OF
134 AB, .276/.400/.343, 7 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 25 BB, 9 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
Okay, here’s the other wacky stat line. I’ve never seen a batter with nearly 2.5 times as many walks as strikeouts. That’s just weird. He’s 5’8, 153 pounds, and has probably been mistaken for the ballboy on more than one occasion. But he gets on base, and that will make him an organizational favourite.
Syracuse Skychiefs (AAA)
Jimmy Alvarez, SS/2B
256 AB, .273/.363/.414, 10 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 37 BB, 67 K, 11 SB, 4 CS
This time last month, Jorge Sequea was pulling ahead of Alvarez in the 2004 Likeliest 25th Man Sweepstakes. Jimmy has now reasserted himself with a great July that raised his OPS 80 points and saw a much-improved BB/K rate. He’s back on track and should be given a crack at heading north next spring.
Jason Arnold, RHP
4-5, 4.33, 15 GS, 87 IP, 88 H, 36 BB, 65 K, 12 HR, 17.1% KBF
Kent referred to Arnold as a work in progress, and that sums it up nicely. By way of illustration, compare Jason’s stats to that of another Syracuse hurler:
Vinny Chulk
6-7, 4.25, 16 GS, 82 IP, 83 H, 33 BB, 61 K, 11 HR, 16.7% KBF
So close to identical it’s almost scary, but Arnold’s ceiling is far higher than Chulk’s, a soft-tosser whose likeliest position in the big leagues will be middle relief. I fully expect that at some point – and it may not be till next April, upon his return to Syracuse – Arnold’s going to make a last few adjustments, put it all together and reel off a string of solid starts. He looks like a slow starter and a strong finisher; I like those guys.
Kevin Cash, C
299 AB, .264/.322/.415, 26 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 25 BB, 73 K
Cash has made strides with the bat recently, finally pushing his slugging percentage over .400 and doubling his home run total in the last month. Nonetheless, his strike-zone judgment, a strength last season, has really suffered this year, and a measly 5 homers doesn’t justify whiffing in a quarter of his at-bats. But his calling card is still his defence, and it’s still outstanding. Had Greg Myers been dealt at the deadline, we would probably have seen Cash in Toronto soon afterwards. As it now stands, with Tom Wilson really fading in the second half, Cash looks positioned to open next season in a L-R combo with Myers, working his way towards full-time duty over the course of the season. What happens after that depends on a fellow named Guillermo Quiroz.
Gabe Gross, RF
75 AB, .267/.368/.413, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 10 BB, 22 K
Gabe’s stats are among those already slightly outdated by the delay in posting. Already in August he’s pushed his OPS up to 800 – pretty remarkable, considering how much he struggled upon arrival in Syracuse. We still need at least 100 ABs to start analyzing Gross’s performance at AAA and the timetable it implies, but his rapid improvement bodes well. I’m not excited by the 10/22 BB/K rate, though, especially since his rate so far in August is 0/8. I think his ETA remains mid-2004.
Juan Pena, RHP
0-1, 7.56, 3 SV, 8 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 2 HR, 18.9% KBF
Not the answer at closer. Pena struggled mightily upon his promotion to Syracuse before going on the DL July 21; I’m not sure with what, but I imagine it’s related to his previous arm surgery.
Simon Pond, 3B
128 AB, .320/.360/.531, 15 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 14 K
He’s slowed down considerably from his hot start, but he’s still hitting steadily enough (10 doubles in July). If he can maintain an 800+ OPS through August, I think the Blue Jays might try to find a place for him on the roster next season. A few more walks would help his cause considerably.
Jorge Sequea, 2B
173 AB, .266/.337/.376, 13 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 16 BB, 26 K, 3 SB, 4 CS
Jorge has dropped behind Jimmy Alvarez, at least offensively, but he’s maintaining a decent eye at the plate. Both of these guys could end up on the Toronto-Syracuse shuttle next season.
Mike Smith, RHP
7-5, 4.56, 20 G, 16 GS, 104 IP, 107 H, 47 BB, 63 K, 10 HR, 13.8% KBF
Looks like Pasqual Coco v. 2.0. to me.
Jayson Werth, OF
129 AB, .264/.326/.465, 14 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 12 BB, 35 K, 7 SB, 1 CS
More outdated stats: a white-hot start to August has knocked Jayson’s OPS all the way up to 873, and that was on top of a great July that saw him rescue his top-prospect status from the precipice. Werth’s BB/K ratio is still pretty unimpressive, and considering his rangy build and big looping swing, it may remain so. But guys who can play catcher or centerfield, steal bases and hit home runs are extremely intriguing when they show off their skills like Jayson’s doing. I still think Werth is a top contender to be dealt, but if Frank Catalanotto isn’t in the plans for next year, the club may give Jayson 400 ABs in right field in 2004 to showcase him for a deal. He’s already done a fine job rebounding from a dismal start to 2003.
New Haven Ravens (AA)
Russ Adams, SS
171 AB, .275/.337/.339, 4 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 16 BB, 29 K, 5 SB, 1 CS
As of this writing (Aug. 5), Adams’ average was all the way up to .293 (.348 OBP), and he seems to be recovering from that nosedive he experienced soon after his promotion. My only concern, and it’s not a great one at this stage, is his walk rate, which has dropped to the organization-minimum 1 in 10 at-bats. But Adams’ strike-zone judgment is the last thing I’m worried about him losing, so I’m sure that will come around. It’s important to remember that unlike more spectacular fellow prospects like Gil Quiroz and Alexis Rios, Adams’ numbers will tend to understate his impact. The organization eventually expects Russ to (a) play terrific middle-infield defence, (b) put up a .365 OBP in the leadoff spot, (c) steal at least 20-25 bases while hardly ever getting caught, and (d) score about a zillion runs. He should be doing all those things in Toronto absolutely no later than September 2005.
David Bush, RHP
4-1, 2.36, 8 GS, 45 IP, 41 H, 14 BB, 39 K, 3 HR, 20.1% KBF
Oh, this is nice. Update: he’s now at 5-1, 2.05, after a stellar one-hitter over seven shutout innings on the weekend (1 BB, 9 Ks, moving his ratio to 15/48); Bush has now thrown 20 consecutive scoreless innings at Double-A, just one full year after being drafted; don’t underestimate how incredible that is. One last stat line, his career numbers from Auburn, Dunedin and New Haven combined: 165 IP, 129 H, 33 BB, 171 K. The race between Bush and Dustin McGowan to be the first to reach Toronto is on; let’s root for a flat-footed tie.
Paul Chiafreddo, C
132 AB, .280/.373/.439, 4 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 16 BB, 34 K
Chiaffredo makes his first and quite possibly last appearance on these lists. He’s here because he’s a catcher who’s displaying a strong bat and decent strike-zone judgment. He’s not been here before because he’s 27 and this is his third straight season at Double-A; last year at Tennessee, he hit a sterling .194 with a 13/81 BB/K rate, which was pretty much in line with his career numbers. He may be a late bloomer – Kevin Cash is 26 – but more likely, this is his 15 minutes of Farm Report fame.
Jordan DeJong, RHP
3-4, 6.00, 17 SV, 6 G, 0 GS, 15 IP, 19 H, 13 BB, 14 K, 0 HR, 14/75 KBF
I wrote elsewhere about how JP Ricciardi is not especially patient, and is quite willing to promote players in order to challenge them and determine whether they can help out the organization. In most cases, the rapid promotions are successful, or at least undamaging. I’m starting to think Jordan DeJong might be an exception. After a stunning debut in the Rookie Pioneer League last summer, Jordan started strong with Dunedin this season but ran into difficulties as summer wore on, giving up more hits and losing command of the strike zone altogether. Nonetheless, the Jays promoted him to Double-A, and the move has been altogether bad. The 17 saves belie a pitcher who’s allowing more than two baserunners an inning and whose KBF ratio is mediocre for a reliever. I’m hoping that this is just a lengthy period of adjustment, but DeJong is not an overpowering guy: he’s got four good pitches that, when he throws them for strikes, makes him very tough; when he can’t throw them for strikes, as is now pretty clearly the case, he gets rocked. I think DeJong was promoted too soon, and he’ll need to go back to A-Ball to find his command again, and maybe his confidence.
Dave Gassner, LHP
6-4, 3.00, 30 G, 14 GS, 111 IP, 107 H, 28 BB, 68 K, 8 HR, 14.9% KBF
He’s my guy until such time as he proves he’s nothing more than a left-handed Pete Bauer. That time is not yet here. You go, David!
Tyrell Godwin, CF
Dunedin
322 AB, .273/.348/.332, 16 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 8 HBP, 29 BB, 39 K, 20 SB, 7 CS
Tyrell did what he had to do: he showed the Blue Jays he could stay healthy over the course of a season and posted the organization-minimum number of walks. Add to that a knack for getting plunked at the plate and making contact with the bat, as well as some decent base-stealing skills, and you can see why Godwin was promoted to New Haven to fill the roster spot created by John-Ford Griffin’s injury. It’s a good move: Godwin is certainly old enough (24) to be in AA, and whatever power he might have was being drained by the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Godwin can hit, run and play the field in decent measure; if he can maintain this performance at Double-A and find enough power to crack even a .400 SLG, he could become a more serious contender for prospect status.
John-Ford Griffin, LF
373 AB, .279/.361/.461, 23 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB, 85 K
A strong Double-A campaign for Griffin was halted by a stress fracture in his foot last week; I don’t know what the severity of the injury is, but stress fractures are a tad more serious than strained hammies. Griffin was reportedly dealt away by the Yankees because they thought he’d only ever be a singles hitter; just another reminder that the Bombers aren’t omniscient. Power has been John-Ford’s calling card this season, to a degree that may even have surprised the Jays. The walks have been terrific, and the average has really come around since early this season, but those strikeouts still bother me, even for a power hitter. I’d hate to see Griffin hit the major leagues and become Travis Lee. No need to panic, though. He remains a very intriguing hitting prospect, unique among Jay farmhands for that combination of power and patience.
Dustin McGowan, RHP
5-0, 3.42, 9 GS, 47 IP, 49 H, 7 BB, 48 K, 1 HR, 24.2% KBF
Like Bush, we shouldn’t forget how quickly McGowan has matured from raw hard thrower to dominant top prospect. This is his fourth pro season, and his K/BB rate has never topped 2.7/1; so far this year, at Dunedin and New Haven combined, it’s 3.5/1. I fully expect McGowan and Bush to debut at Syracuse next April, though it’s always possible – though I think unlikely – that they could come so fast that one or the both of them head north next spring in the bullpen. Stranger things have happened.
Adam Peterson, RHP
0-1, 4.15, 11 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 10 H, 5 BB, 9 K, 0 HR
Bush and DeJong are the only other members of the 2002 draft class to make it to New Haven already, and Adam Peterson might not have advanced this far had concerns about college overwork not led him to a bullpen assignment. His performance so far places him between Bush and DeJong, not as dominant as the former nor as scattered as the latter. After a brilliant performance out of the pen in Dunedin, Peterson has been holding his own with the Ravens, though 8 innings tell us pretty much next to nothing. The Blue Jays likely will wait to see his final AA numbers before deciding what to do with him next.
Guillermo Quiroz, C
307 AB, .287/.367/.515, 22 2B, 0 3B, 16 HR, 34 BB, 67 K
After a blistering April that left him with an 1.100 OPS on May 1, everyone knew Guillermo Quiroz was going to cool down. And although he did, he held pretty steady thereafter:
June 1: .312/.386/.582
July 1: 283/.378/.533
August 1: 287/.367/.515
His current 882 OPS would be terrific for a corner outfielder; for a catcher, it’s fantastic. Quiroz has sort of a history of hot starts and cold finishes, and he needed to prove he could produce consistently over a full season. He did, and his stock within the organization (and outside of it) has never been higher. The Jays will either sell high or groom him to be the Opening Day catcher in April 2005.
Cameron Reimers, RHP
9-3, 2.65, 22 G, 20 GS, 125 IP, 127 H, 31 BB, 78 K, 6 HR, 14.8% KBF
His relatively few strikeouts mark Reimers as a suspect prospect, especially with a 1/1 IP/H ratio and a walk rate that should be lower than it is. His KBF rate is about as low as you’ll see on any prospect list. Cam looks like minor-league rotation filler at this point, and his ERA should soon rise accordingly. Any similarity between Reimers’ numbers and those of Dave Gassner should be dismissed immediately.
Dominic Rich, 2B
277 AB, .253/.324/.332, 17 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 21 BB, 32 K
It’s looking more and more like a lost season for Rich, who led the Florida State League in batting last season and held his own upon promotion to Tennessee. But either because his springtime groin injury ruined his year or because AA pitchers successfully adjusted to him, 2003 has been rough. Rich is not terribly athletic and isn’t gifted defensively, so his bat and his grit are going to have to push him to the majors. Right now, he’s low on fuel.
Alexis Rios, CF
397 AB, .335/.386/.494, 27 2B, 9 3B, 6 HR, 29 BB, 70 K, 8 SB, 2 CS, 18 DP
After saying nothing but nice things about Alexis all season, I’d now like to sound a few notes of caution. Unlike Quiroz, Lexi’s descent from his mammoth April has been both slow and steady. He still retains a marvelous 880 OPS, but his power has been leveling off, and far more problematically, his BB/K ratio has declined to 29/70 after a 5/20 July. The doubles and triples have been great, but the raw home run power is still only occasional. And his 18 double plays lead the Ravens. Alexis projects as a high-average, low-walk player – he clearly understands the strike zone better than ever before, but his style is still to hack first and take walks later. Modify your expectations of his arrival time in Toronto: his major-league EqA is still just .247. He remains a top, if not the top prospect, in the system, but he’ll need at least a year in Triple-A before he sniffs Skydome.
Dunedin Blue Jays (High-A)
Jesse Harper, RHP
10-3, 2.74, 21 G, 19 GS, 105 IP, 90 H, 25 BB, 78 K, 4 HR, 18.3% KBF
Jesse is hanging out right at the edge of being interesting. Pitching prospects in the FSL need to have lights-out numbers, especially in the strikeout categories; it’s a pitchers’ league and the hitters are still pretty overmatched. Harper keeps the ball in the park, doesn’t allow a lot of hits and has decent control, all to the good; what he lacks is the ability to simply dominate hitters, as reflected in his relatively low K totals. But that KBF keeps climbing, slowly but surely, and his July BB/K was 7/21. He’s doing something right, and he’ll keep my attention until such time as he doesn’t.
Aaron Hill, SS
Dunedin
26 AB, .269/.355/.308, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
Auburn
122 AB, .361/.446/.492, 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 16 BB, 20 K
After ripping apart the NY-Penn League, Toronto’s first-round choice in the 2003 draft has been promoted all the way up to the FSL – a big jump, but one justified by the ease with which Hill was manhandling opposing pitchers in short-season ball. After eight games at Dunedin, he’s sporting a .269/.355/.308 line, a fine start. The early line has Hill as the favourite to play shortstop for the Jays later this decade, with Russ Adams flipping over to second, but we’ll see about that. So far, so good.
Brandon League, RHP
3-3, 3.21, 8 G, 7 GS, 42 IP, 39 H, 15 BB, 19 K, 0 HR, 10.5% KBF
Very fine, considering that Brandon is just 20 years old and is in his fourth league in two seasons (Pioneer, NY-Penn, Sally, FSL). Obviously the strikeouts haven’t arrived yet, and his control isn’t as sharp as he doubtless would like, but for a guy barely out of his teens going up against older and tougher competition, this is terrific. Watch for him to climb the organizational ladder at the same rate his strikeouts climb; but also keep in mind that League is at least three years away from the majors, and JP probably doesn’t feel like waiting that long. If packaging League can help bring back ML-ready pitching, the Blue Jays will do it in a second.
Justin Maureau, LHP
3-4, 5.59, 27 G, 3 GS, 37 IP, 44 H, 25 BB, 28 K, 0 HR, 15.3% KBF
It’s also looking like a lost season for Justin Maureau, which is unfortunate considering how badly the Blue Jays need a solid lefthander. Right now he’s just drowning out there, and it’s possible he could get a breather by going down to Charleston and trying again. His arm is too good to give up on, but the renaissance may have to start in 2004.
Vince Perkins, RHP
5-5, 1.61, 61 IP, 20 R, 11 ER, 37 H, 38 BB, 48 K, 1 HR, 19.0% KBF
A few things of importance here. First, Vince’s ERA is misleading, as almost half of the runs he’s allowed have been unearned. Second, you won’t see too many prospects whose hits and walks allowed are almost identical: his stuff is impressive, but his control really is a problem. Third, a move to the bullpen would neither be unexpected nor entirely a bad thing: some guys just have limited repertoires more suited to relief roles. Perkins just got hammered last night, as it happens, 6 runs in 2 IP with 5 walks. But there are hopeful signs: his KBF rate has risen in the last month from 16.9% to 19.0%, and his July BB/K was an improved 16/27. Perkins didn’t dominate the Sally League by accident: his stuff is real. He’s take longer to arrive, but he’ll arrive.
Chad Pleiness, RHP
6-5, 2.85, 19 GS, 110 IP, 93 H, 47 BB, 79 K, 9 HR, 16.8% KBF
Things are going in the wrong direction for Big Bad Chad: fewer strikeouts, higher ERA, too many walks. He lacks one outstanding pitch, and that may be coming back to bite him a little. He still has a great deal of promise, but like his teammate Vince, he needs to turn those BBs into Ks. He might get a trial in New Haven next year in order to push him harder.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP
Dunedin
0-0, 1 SV, 0.00, 3 G, 9.0 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 26.4% KBF
Auburn
5-1, 2.37, 9 G, 2 GS, 30 IP, 22 H, 5 BB, 53 K, 0 HR, 44.5% KBF
Hello. After toying with the NY-Penn League, including striking out almost half the batters he faced, 2003 9th-rounder Vermilyea got kicked upstairs to the Florida State League. As you can see, he’s hardly breaking a sweat there either. Vermilyea is not a fireballer – his fastball is consistently around 90 – but movement and command of four other pitches – slider, splitter, curveball and nascent change – have made him virtually untouchable thus far. He’s stated a preference for bullpen work, which is nice, but I’ve stated a preference to work for the Hawaiian State Bar too. Vermilyea was moved to the starting rotation at Auburn before his promotion, and although he’s worked out of the pen in Dunedin thus far, he’s been making longer, multi-inning appearances there. It’s way too early to tell about his role or the pace of his advancement, but in the meantime, these numbers make for prettier viewing than a meteor shower.
Jason Waugh, OF
172 AB, .308/.390/.459, 9 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 24 BB, 33 K, 0 SB, 3 CS
Here’s another new name on these lists, but Jason Waugh is unlikely to drop off anytime soon. A 2002 11th-round draft pick out of St. Mary’s College of California, Waugh had a middling pro debut at Auburn last year, .243/.327/.403 in 255 AB – though with 14 doubles, 9 homers and a 31/50 BB/K rate, his peripherals were strong. He was moved up to Charleston to start 2003 and struggled: .209/.262/.295 in 139 ABs with a 10/30 BB/K rate. So the obvious solution was to promote him again, right? The Blue Jays did, and Waugh exploded. His .459 slugging percentage is very good for the FSL, and 24 walks in 172 ABs is solid. This didn’t come out of the blue: in his final season at St. Mary’s, Jason posted a whopping .399/.447/.734 line with 14 HRs and an 18/21 BB/K rate in just 203 at-bats. Keep an eye on Waugh; he looks like a sleeper.
Charleston Alley-Cats (Low-A)
D.J. Hanson, RHP
6-10, 3.27, 20 GS, 104.2 IP, 91 H, 50 BB, 73 K, 4 HR, 16.7% KBF
It’s been a step-back season for DJ, a 1999 6th-rounder from high school who missed all of 2001 with an injury. His comeback season in Auburn last year was terrific, 50 strong innings with a sub-1 WHIP and more K’s than IP. But he’s struggled with his control at Charleston this season and hasn’t had the same strikeout rate. He’ll likely have to repeat this grade before graduating to Dunedin.
Rodney Medina, OF
350 AB, .271/.339/.434, 17 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 36 BB, 41 K
Medina continues to build on his status as the Alley-Cats’ best hitter, and even if that’s like being the most talented member of A-Ha, it’s still noteworthy. His BB/K ratio in July was 15/11 and his OPS rose 50 points. Rodney is showing pretty good power for the Sally, although it’s his second season in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bumped up to Dunedin any day now, especially with Tyrell Godwin’s promotion.
Miguel Negron, OF
109 AB, .303/.330/.422, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 16 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
Negron, the bargain-basement first-round pick written off by most of us years ago, was making good progress before injuring his hamstring in mid-June. We’ll check in on him again next month.
Sandy Nin, RHP
4-7, 2.58, 19 GS, 108 IP, 104 H, 13 BB, 76 K, 3 HR, 17.6% KBF
Warning signs. Nin’s June slowdown has continued into July, and his KBF rate has fallen from 21.5% on June 1 to 19.2% on July 1 to 17.6% on August 1. He’s still demonstrating phenomenal command, but increasingly he’s not fooling many batters. Nin is small, just 6’0” and 170 lbs, so he may be tiring from the innings and the long summer. A bullpen assignment might be in his future.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP
5-3, 2.74, 19 G, 17 GS, 92 IP, 80 H, 25 BB, 52 K, 6 HR, 13.8% KBF
Ramirez remains a fringe prospect, but his BB/K rate in July was a decent 7/16, and he continued to allow fewer hits than IP. With that low strikeout rate, Ismael is conducting a tightrope act, and he could fall off any time. We’ll be here if he does.
Charles Talanoa, RHP
Charleston
1-1, 4.24, 4 GS, 17 IP, 20 H, 9 BB, 13 K, 0 HR, 16.4% KBF
Auburn
2-2, 4.22, 5 GS, 21 IP, 19 H, 8 BB, 25 K, 0 HR, 27.4% KBF
The Jays’ 14th-round pick in 2000 out of a California community college, Talanoa is a brute (6’5”, 230 lbs) who spent two years in Medicine Hat, the latter of which showed great potential (79 IP, 77 H, 23 BB, 91 K). He was dominating hitters at Auburn, so the organization bumped him up to Charleston, where he’s been doing decently. He’s someone to keep an eye on.
Tracy Thorpe, RHP
1-1, 3.63, 11G, 0 GS, 17 IP, 17 H, 9 BB, 11 K, 2 HR, 14.2% KBF
Another monster (6’4”, 250 lbs), Thorpe played some football before being taken in the 2000 draft’s 11th round out of a Florida high school. He was coming into his own in his third pro season (2002) when he tore the labrum in his pitching shoulder last June. The surgery was successful and he’s come back sooner than expected, but his numbers reflect the difficulties pitchers face immediately following surgery. 2003 will probably be spent finding out if Thorpe left his 97-mph fastball on the operating table; if not, we can expect to see better results next spring.
John Wesley, RHP
2-5, 3.48, 8 GS, 41 IP, 38 H, 13 BB, 32 K, 2 HR, 18.9% KBF
What is it with the Jays and big-boned pitchers? Wesley the Crusher (6’6”, 230 lbs) throws in the mid-90s and has a decent curve and splitter in his arsenal as well. After a brief but excellent debut at Medicine Hat last season, John’s doing just fine in Charleston this year. Someone else to tag and track.
Auburn Doubledays (Short-Season A)
Josh Banks, RHP
5-1, 2.97, 9 GS, 39 IP, 42 H, 6 BB, 46 K, 1 HR, 27.8% KBF
The 2003 2nd-rounder is doing great. Maybe a few more hits than he’d like, but 40 professional innings gives you about as much useful information as the scrolling newsbar on CBC Newsworld. His ceiling is high and his advancement should be rapid.
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP
0-1, 2.14, 10 SV, 19 G, 0 GS, 21 IP, 15 H, 4 BB, 35 K, 1 HR, 42.1% KBF
Easy winner of the Best Jay Farmhand Handle, Bubbie was a starter at Tennessee Tech but has been used exclusively as a reliever since joining the Jays last year. He’s a classic short pitcher (5’11, 180), and there have been some character issues raised, but you cannot argue with a 4/35 BB/K rate. He might be brought along more slowly if he needs to do some growing up, but the arm sure looks good from here.
Vito Chiaravolloti, 1B
134 AB, .351/.457/.612, 12 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 24 BB, 35 K
Simply insane numbers. I wrote an entry elsewhere detailing Vito’s history and how his selection looks like a steal. Jason Perry, who ripped up the Pioneer League before settling into mediocrity at Dunedin and subsequently being traded, isn’t necessarily a good comp: Auburn may be just one step up from rookie ball, but it’s a big step, and the NY-Penn tends to be a pitcher’s league. That’s not to say we have the next Carlos Delgado on our hands, but even after 100 ABs, Vito may already be the best corner-infield prospect in the organization. He’ll move to Dunedin soon enough, and that’s when the picture will start to become a little clearer.
Danny Core, RHP
4-0, 3.52, 10 G, 0 GS, 30 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 23 K, 2 HR, 19.4% KBF
In among all these amazing stats, Dan’s numbers look relatively pedestrian, but he’s still off to a fine start. It’d be more impressive if he was starting, though.
Mike Galloway, OF
108 AB, .324/.422/.500, 7 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 16 BB, 31 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
A Canadian kid, from St. Thomas, Ontario, Galloway went to the University of Miami (the Ohio version) and posted a 1.228 OPS in his senior year. The Blue Jays grabbed him in the 14th round in 2002 and sent him to Medicine Hat, where he scuffled in a brief audition. No scuffling at Auburn, though: great power, good eye at the plate, and playing a fine centerfield to boot. Nice beginning.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP
4-1, 1.50, 8 GS, 36 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 37 K, 1 HR, 25.8% KBF
The last lefty who looked this good in his pro debut with the Blue Jays was Justin Maureau. That’s not meant to be a knock against Isenberg, who’s also off to a terrific start, but only as a gentle reminder that pitching prospects can disappear faster than loudmouthed tough guys in horror movies.
Shaun Marcum, RHP
0-0, 1.88, 2 SV, 9 G, 0 GS, 14 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 20 K, 1 HR, 37.7% KBF
The last reliever who looked this good in his pro debut with the Blue Jays was Jordan DeJong. Okay, I’ll knock it off. Marcum’s 2/20 BB/K rate certainly hints at something special. The organization needs good bullpen arms, and he may rise faster than some of his fellow 2003 draftees as a result.
Tom Mastny, RHP
4-0, 2.62, 8 GS, 34 IP, 32 H, 6 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 26.2% KBF
Another guy with an outstanding walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Jays received a lot of praise for their 2002 draft, with Baseball America calling it in the best in the game, but the 2003 draft class is having an even better debut. There’s a whole lot to like in Auburn this year.
Juan Peralta, 2B/SS
178 AB, .275/.361/.376, 10 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 23 BB, 33 K, 9 SB, 3 CS
Even though he just turned 20, 2003 is Juan’s fourth season with the organization. A free-agent signing out of the Dominican, Juan weighs 150 pounds soaking wet and was briefly considered for the Tobey Maguire part in Seabiscuit. Peralta’s bat has been a little slow coming around, but his strike-zone judgment is remarkable for someone so young: coming into this season, he’d amassed 108 walks in 825 at-bats. With doubles power already and good baserunning skills, Juan will soon be turning some heads in the organization.
AJ Porfirio, OF
170 AB, .300/.372/.447, 4 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 19 BB, 37 K, 2 SB, 2 CS
He’s old for the league (24 in December) and this is his second go-round the NY-Penn, but 2002 30th-rounder Porfirio is certainly hitting his stride now: excellent extra-base power in the early going and a decent batting eye. He’d better hurry, though.
Ryan Roberts, 3B
134 AB, .313/.404/.478, 2 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 35 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
How does a .422/.514/.765 line grab you? That’s what Roberts posted in his last season (2003) at the University of Texas-Arlington, with a 42/31 BB/K rate in just 230 ABs. Add in 16 homers and 13 steals, and the question becomes how in the world he lasted till the 18th round this past June. Ryan may not have Vito’s raw power, but he’s pretty close to the complete package offensively. He gets very little attention, but he’s Auburn’s sleeper bat.
Pulaski Blue Jays (Rookie)
Jeremy Acey, 2B/SS
124 AB, .282/.401/.379, 9 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 HBP, 14 BB, 15 K, 5 SB, 2 CS
All I want to say about this guy is this: I’ve never seen anyone with more HBPs than doubles and nearly as many plunks as strikeouts. One of two truly unique stat lines in Pulaski.
Robinson Diaz, C
97 AB, .443/.462/.619, 12 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 10 K
You’ve heard all about Diaz already elsewhere at BB, so all I’ll add is that he turns 20 next month, he was a free-agent Dominican signing who entered the organization at 18, and that he’s yet another intriguing catching prospect in an organization that seems to roll them out on an assembly line.
Joey Reiman, C/1B
108 AB, .324/.436/.472, 14 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 HBP, 18 BB, 28 K
Speaking of outstanding catching prospects … I didn’t even know there was a Grand Canyon University until Toronto selected Reiman from it in the 16th round this past summer. Excellent strike-zone command and nascent power make me think his upside may actually be higher than Diaz’s.
Nick Thomas, 1B/OF
118 AB, .288/.404/.508, 9 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 23 BB, 31 K
Looks great so far. I’m running out of interesting things to say. Sorry.
Jayce Tingler, OF
134 AB, .276/.400/.343, 7 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 25 BB, 9 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
Okay, here’s the other wacky stat line. I’ve never seen a batter with nearly 2.5 times as many walks as strikeouts. That’s just weird. He’s 5’8, 153 pounds, and has probably been mistaken for the ballboy on more than one occasion. But he gets on base, and that will make him an organizational favourite.
