Yeah, don't mind me. Chopped liver here, that's all.... :-)

Seriously, great article, Aaron, and thanks for the plug!

If the Jays can leverage Halladay's rare gift for an increased workload, then there's no doubt he's worth every penny they'll pay him in a new, lucrative contract. He's arguably Cy-worthy this year even though Loiaza's ERA is a full run lower, by virtue of his more innings pitched. If he can cut down on the home runs again, he'll be right up there with Pedro Martinez as the best pitcher in the AL, in my opinion.

I agree. I'd rather have 90-95 pitches of Doc every fourth day than 100-110+ pitches every fifth day. The key will be finding three more starters who can fall into the same routine. I think Escobar is capable of it. And maybe a guy like Vasquez. Imagine if you could put those three guys out as your front three, fill in a fourth, and only have to start a 5th guy occasionally. There is of course no excuse for the Jays to not always skip the 5th spot anytime there's an off-day.

The way I see it, you can alternate month to month between a 4.5 man rotation and a four man cycle. Maybe that way you maximize the innings of your best starters without having them go on three days rest more than 7 or 8 starts at a time. Or if that's too much, reduce the cycle to two weeks giving them 3 or 4 starts on 3 days rest followed by 2 or 3 on four days rest. And of course off-days would allow them to have four or five days rest depending on where they fall.

Cutting down the homers for Doc will be tough as he throws so many strikes and being a two pitch pitcher won't allow him to strike out that many the second or third or fourth time through the order.

But as long as he has that outstanding control, especially with the curve, it won't matter much unless he starts giving up vintage Jose Lima homerun totals.

I'd like to see, right now, a "4-day" rotation of:

Halladay
Escobar
Lidle
Lopez
Swingman~Hendrickson

I'd also like to see Wayback learn the same cut-fastball Loaiza learned here. Good old Gil.

I think the ZLC should officially invite Aaron to a game at the Skydome. If not this year or next year, then in two years for the SABR convention.

Robert, I've tried to get him down before... he was a bit dismayed by the extent of the car trip from Minneapolis. We'll get him yet, though.

There's a SABR convention in Toronto in 2005? No way! Robert, do you have any details (dates, etc.)?

Craig will know much more about it, but it is my understanding that indeed SABR is going north of the border.

Yes, it's coming here in 2005. Few details yet, but I'm going to get involved with the organizing at some point.

Can I get a count of SABR members here? A show of hands?

http://economics.about.com
i'm one.

Mike

I will be joining up soon.

All I know about baseball is that I don't know enough.

Put me down for joining SABR and attending the conference.

http://economics.about.com
You certainly get your money's worth when you become a member. The daily SABR-L digest you get over e-mail tends to have a lot of really intelligent stuff in it.. most of the more intelligent posters from rec.sport.baseball post there, along with a few of the Prospectus guys. Bill James posts a message every month or two. Plus they're constantly sending you books and things like that. One of the books they sent me a couple of years ago: Memories of a Ballplayer: Bill Werber and Baseball in the 1930s has become one of my favorite baseball books. The book is not at all exceptional.. it's just a bunch of stories about games he played in, players he played with and against, that kind of thing. But it's a fun read.

They have a student discount, so if you're still in school (like me), make sure you get the discounted rate.

Mike

I can probably wrangle a student discount if I'm an articled student at that point. Unfortunately, the job market for recent law student grads out here in BC with slightly above-average grades is soft. Grr. If only I wasn't stubborn about wanting to stay in Lotusland.

I hear that Shrike. You'd think things would be better in Alberta but they are not.

Can I get a count of SABR members here? A show of hands?

I am