You keep Delgado and Wells. Period. The other stuff -- Bobby V's wisdom notwithstanding -- is year-by-year.

This is the Giants Plan -- two superstars (Bonds and Kent, until this year) and mix and match. It's the right way to do things in the new baseball economy.

Delgado and Wells have every chance to be the 1B and CF on MLB's next All-Decade Team.

Yes ... I know, the "A-Rod Argument." But that comes down to management not paying Ken Caminiti, Andres Galarraga, Todd Van Poppel and Chan Ho Park "stupid money."

Choice 1 - I accept the discounted contract, but I structure it in reverse 18/15/12 for 2005-2007 - the kids coming through the system are going to get more expensive, not cheaper

Choice 2 - If Delgado doesn't sign, Kielty is the future 1B - But he did in my adventure, so Kielty is the LF - Rios and Gross battle it out for the 3rd OF spot, and Reed stays as 4th (3rd until Riosand Gross are ready with Howie as the 4th) - Cat should be gone sooner rather than later - and Phelps/Griffin wage war over the DH spot - the losers of the Griffin/Phelps and the Rios/Gross battles become trade bait, although losers could mean least effective or most overrated by other teams

Choice 3 - Hudson stays around for the foreseeable future. I don't see Adams being a factor until 2005 and by then Hill will knocking on the door right behind him - they can wage a similar battle to the ones in the OF and at DH, with the loser becoming trade bait - Woody can hold the fort until then

Choice 4 - I go into 2004 with four kids - I hope that one of these 'kids' is acquired in the next week, and since names like Lilly(not really a kid in any sense other than financially speaking) and Fossum are being bandied about, this is a more than remote possibility - Fossum would go nicely with Hendrickson, Halladay, Thurman and Arnold, with McGowan and Bush waiting in the wings for those who inevitably falter

Choice 5 - Aquilino Lopez and Trever Miller have earned the right to be back in 2004. Pete Walker, Bob File, Jason Kershner and Cliff Politte could possibly earn that same right in the second half...mix in a new Rule 5er and that has the makings of a passable bullpen - try Politte setting up A-Lo

With Cat gone, four kids in the rotation and a bullpen on the cheap, the Jays would be quite a bit under their 50 million operating budget - more than enough room to address any immediate needs once the youngsters have been evaluated - maybe Keith Foulke would look at a one year deal??

I sign Delgado, if I get any kind of hometown discount. If I get him to 12/12/18 with an extra 3 million deferred, I don't even think twice.

Ignoring potential trades, Johnson plays LF, Rios Center, and Wells in RF with Phelps DH'ing. If the right trade (starting pitching) comes up, Wells can play Center with Gross in right or if Phelps is moved Gross/Johnson can share DH and LF.

In the middle infield, I think all three young players stay with the big club and decisions can be made from there. I expect that it would be O-Dawg at second and Hill at short and Adams a good pinch hitter and backup at both positions. Chris Woodward, at this time, cna be traded to the D-Rays to play with Brent Abernathy :-)

In the rotation, it's Halladay-________-Arnold-Bush-McGowan. The blank is a good no. 2 that is brought in via the trade route with Kielty and Griffin... or Gross... or Phelps... or Rios; whichever is expendable. If Bush or McGowan don't cut it, I think Hendrickson will be a servicable back end starter as will Thurman but for now they help anchor the...

Bullpen; I like the current structure, in that the late innings are flexible and there is no closer (and maybe not even a real 'ace' reliever). Hendrickson, Miller, and Kershner will all be good enough to coincide as lefties in the 'pen (none of them LOOGY's) I think. That trio isn't Plesac, Borbon, Heredia. Also hanging around is Aquilino and Cliff as the main late inning guys. Corey Thurman could be the number one spot starter, and a long reliever. The seventh, and final, member of the 'pen can be just about anybody. A cheap right hander brought up through the organization or nabbed in the Rule V. Aquilino brings the slider(s), Lurch has the big hook, Miller and Kershner are two different types of tough lefties, Thurman can show off his stuff in shorter stints than starts and Politte is the veteran anchor.

And Halladay and Wells each bring home a WS MVP (it's my adventure...)

1. First, I don’t think $15 MM/year will be a hometown discount, but we shall see I suppose. I’ll take him at that price, but I worry about the knees and that he may start declining as he’s getting near 35
2. OF – Wells in center, Kielty in left, Gross in right, Johnson – 4th OF. DH - Phelps
3. Hudson and whoever ends up the better of Hill and Adams (and given the success of draft picks it’s likely only 1 ends up being a good player and the other is a utility player)
4. Halladay is a given. I think the Jays will be able to rely on 2 of Arnold, Bush, McGowan, and Thurman (and Fossum!) in the middle of the rotation. A 5th starter type can be found cheaply if no one internally works out. The other starter (or will the Jays of the future go with only 4?) will be acquired by trade - I’ll trade Rios for this pitcher (assuming it’s at least a legit ‘#2’ starter.
5. Lopez, Miller, and Politte will likely be holdovers. If a couple of the pitchers in #4 don’t work out they can hit the pen. Hendrickson will head to the pen and a couple can be dug up if necessary.

So my lineup is something like this:
7 – Kielty
5 – Hinske
8 – Wells
3 – Delgado
DH- Phelps
9 – Gross
4 – Hudson
6 – Hill
2 – Cash/Quiroz (keep them both and split time)

Bench:
Adams
JFG
Johnson
2nd catcher

Pitching:
Halladay
Starter from Rios trade
McGowan
Bush
Arnold
Thurman
Starter from Escobar trade
Cheap free agent for 5th starter
(assumes 3 of the last 6 don’t work out for whatever reason)

Pen:
Lopez
Politte
Miller
Hendrickson
Starters from above that don’t work out
Trade for top setup pitcher (like Dotel, though not necessarily him)

It's a real shame that more wasn't done with that team.

There has been a near-miraculous improvement in record time, while paring $30 million from the payroll, but it's not enough for Valentine. What an idiot.

Choice 1: If Delgado wants to stay that badly, of course you let him, but he's probably going to get a Thome-like offer somewhere and I just can't match it. Assuming he does offer the discount, if the average attendance and the TV ratings rise in 2004 and again in 2005, there could be enough revenue to pay Carlos and Doc. That's a delightful fantasy, but if the reality is choosing between them, I'll take Halladay.

Choice 2: Next year, I'm fine with Kielty-Wells-Cat-Johnson, but I'm thinking twice about how much to pay Frankie, so he might not be back. I can pick up a Reggie Sanders-type free agent stopgap for a million. By 2005, Gross is in RF, Rios in LF, Kielty's the super-sub. Phelps may end up being trade bait; given a choice, you'd have to prefer a DH who could fill in capably at some position. Johnson, whose play is no fluke, may hang around, allowing Kielty to be in the 1B/DH mix with Griffin.

Choice 3: After one more season, assemble an "O-Dawg's Greatest Hits" video of his best defensive plays and assorted triples, and shop him. Adams will be the SS by 2005 and Hill will shift to 2B, with Woodward backing up both spots. Dominic Rich is not out of the picture, so there's plenty of depth, and I'm sure I can interest a run-and-gun team in Hudson.

Choice 4: Pitch the big fella every fourth day and let him win 30 games. Rent a #2 for 2004 for a few million and hope he works out better than Lidle; Javier Vazquez would be nice. Arnold will probably be inconsistent for a while, but he's in my rotation next year. I'm not giving up on Hendrickson, I'm bullish on Thurman, and I believe that someone immediately useful will be added in the inevitable Lidle and Escobar deals. Another modestly-priced free agent on a one-year deal (the Sturtze gamble) is worth a try as insurance, but that might not be necessary by 2005, when the other youngsters begin to arrive.

Choice #5: Lopez, Miller, Politte and Kershner are economical keepers, as long as Cliff's arm is sound. Walker, if healthy, is in the mix for at least one more year. There's no way I'm throwing big money at someone with a reputation, so next year it's another patchwork approach. Dave Bush isn't far away; after a late 2004 callup, he's my 2005 closer.

No doubt, Bobby V has a better plan, he just won't be sharing it.

Choice One: Delgado

This is going to be tough, especially if Carlos has another year in 2004 like he had this year. Do you say he's 31 so sell high, get a good young slugger and a couple of arms in return and put the money saved towards pitching? This is my preferred option, even if it means eating $4 or $5 million of the 2004 ticket. You get your return for Delgado then spend the $15 million saved on two or three high quality arms and/or offensive players on the free agent market (and there's a pretty good market between now and 2004 and 2006).

The only way I change my mind is if Rogers agrees to up the payroll from $50 million to $60 million by 2005. Because if I can't afford to keep Halladay, Wells, Hinske, Kielty, and three or four experienced pitchers on the payroll, Delgado isn't going to do us much good anyway. If Rogers is willing to play ball, I welcome keeping one of the most feared sluggers in the league on the team for another three years or so for about $4 to $6 million less than he's making now. Maybe this option IS realistic because we heard Godfrey express interest in keeping Delgado around a while ago. It would certainly help the team from a marketing standpoint.

Choice Two: The Outfield/DH

Cat is offered arbitration and brought back in 2004 in the $3 million range. He's traded by mid-season with a platoon of Gross and Johnson taking over right field. Depending on Rios' performance, Kielty becomes a tradeable option in left field since Rios looks like another Vernon Wells (at least offensively) if he adds power in the next year. Phelps is still around and you give him the majority of at bats at DH. Johnson becomes a super utility type player providing days off for people at all locations.

Choice Three: Middle Infield

I don't know if either Hill or Adams will make passable major league shortstops. Hill has the better arm but doesn't have a shortstop's body which might slow him down in the long run. Woodward and one year Bordick-like signings are the insurance. I think you keep Hudson at second for his defence alone and accept that he's a decent hitter but probably not much more.

Choice Four: Rotation

Halladay is a must keep, obviously. Sign him to a four year deal now.

I *don't* wait on the kids because we have no idea how long we'll be waiting. This is the number one reason for allowing Delgado to slip away because we might be able to get 70% or 80% of his production through a good first base platoon (heck make Tom Wilson the righty half of it) or a free agent signing (Derek Lee). I have confidence that the Jays can still mount a decent offence without the big name at first. Give playing time to Phelps, Kielty, Wilson, whoever. Or sign someone like Magglio Ordonez for right field ($9 or $10 million range?) and go with young first basemen like Kielty/Phelps. There are options to replace the offence.

The Jays need to spend money to bring in two relatively young, experienced arms with a track record to compliment Halladay. Then they can afford to go cheap and wait on their fourth and fifth starters and I don't mind if Arnold, Thurman, Hendrickson, McGowan, Bush, trade aquisition A through E, all get put through their paces there.

But I want projectability in the first three. The Jays didn't have that this year until Escobar joined the rotation and still might not with Lidle pitching so poorly. I resign Escobar as a #3 starter (won't cost them a draft pick) and look for a true #2 or #1A (like Javier Vasquez) to compliment Halladay. This becomes much easier with a ton of salary space open from dealing Delgado.

Lidle doesn't come back unless his price falls so far that he's less than $3 million next year.

Choice Five: Bullpen

Politte, Lopez, Miller, and Kershner have earned another year. I sign two veteran guys with track records like Kerry Ligtenberg who get overlooked for $1 or $2 million and put one of them in the closer's role. David Bush could move more quickly as a reliever, Bob File could make a come back, or another Pete Walker might come available. If a "proven" closer becomes available for less than $3 million, I consider it seriously to help stabilize the pen. Even Billy Beane has done that for Oakland the past two years.

1. Regarding Delgado, there are two factors I'd need to consider before making a decision: how good is Josh Phelps going to be, and will Delgado be willing to take a hometown discount? If Carlos keeps performing at this rate, somebody's going to be willing to throw $95 million over six years at him, and the Jays can't afford that - but, if they don't sign him, they're possibly looking at seeing him play for a divisional or Wild Card rival. (Boston and Oakland could use Delgado, for example.) I'd offer him arbitration, and 3 years at $45 million, or thereabouts; if he wants to go for megabucks, I'd have to let him go.

2. Outfield: Wells in centre, Kielty in left, Johnson/Gross in right. I don't think the Jays need Cat any more, unless Gross is going to need to spend all of 2004 in AAA. If Gross starts the year in AAA, the Jays probably should give Werth a full shot - I don't think he can cut it, but the Jays need to find out for sure (as they did with Joe Lawrence). After 2004, two or more of Griffin, Gross and Rios will be ready, and the problem will be solved.

3. Middle infield: have we officially given up on Woody as a stopgap until one of Adams or Hill is ready? He hasn't played the last few games - is he hurt, or has Tosca given up on him? I think it's reasonable to assume that either Hill or Adams will make it all the way as a shortstop, and then sign a one-year stopgap to fill the hole until the kid is ready. I'd sign Hudson to a three-year deal; he's now a superior defender, he makes an offensive contribution, and he seems to work hard.

4. Rotation: I'd sign Halladay to a three-year deal when he becomes a free agent - he's obviously a great pitcher, and great pitchers are worth every penny they're paid. Unfortunately, this will probably eat up most of the spare dollars available, so I doubt that I could afford Escobar, or risk offering him arbitration. I'd take Fossum for him, straight up, if that's the offer - I doubt they'll do better for him, and it will be fun to see Kelvim in Fenway, as he'll either do really, really well or really, really badly.

As for the rest of the rotation: since I've signed Delgado and Halladay to three-year deals, they'll be around in 2005 or 2006 when the kid pitchers are ready. In the meantime, I'd take Lidle's money and find somebody like Lidle, only better, as a stopgap. I don't think the Jays will be ready in 2004, so a rotation of Halladay/new guy/Hendrickson/Walker/Thurman (or Arnold) is as good as we need.
In 2006, sign a pitcher if there's still a hole.

5. Bullpen: I'd go with volume at this point - get a whole bunch of pitchers in as NRI's, and find the ones who can contribute. The Jays can't afford to spend megabucks on relievers, and spending money on a bullpen isn't an effective strategy anyway. I could stock Syracuse with possibilities, and then keep the ones who work out (as Kershner may be doing right now).

My roster in 2004:
C Myers/Wilson
1B Delgado
2B Hudson
SS stopgap (or Woody, if he snaps out of it)
3B Hinske
OF Wells/Kielty/Johnson/Werth
DH Phelps
P Halladay/new guy/Hendrickson/Walker/Thurman or Arnold
bullpen Politte/Miller/Lopez/cast of thousands

2005 or 2006:
C Cash/Quiroz
1B Delgado
2B Hudson
SS Hill or Adams
3B Hinske
OF Wells/Gross/Griffin/Rios
DH Phelps
P Halladay/Arnold/McGowan/Bush/Thurman
maybe bring in a big name at this point to push over the top
bullpen: by committee, I guess

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Here's my pet delusion, at least for the outfield. Take the money saved from no longer having to pay Stewart, Lidle, possible Escobar, and Catalanotto. Then go out and sign Vladimir Guerrero.

Insane, I know, but it gives you a 1-year window with both Delgado/Guerrero. Just take a minute and salivate at the thought of the offense, go ahead, it's just a fantasy, no one will get hurt.

If things don't improve financially for the team, no shiny new TV deal or spike in attendance, then let Delgado walk. You get payroll relief, but Vladi neatly replaces Delgado's bat, and at a more skilled defensive position.

A 5-year deal for Guerrero takes you through his age 32 season, I believe, which shouldn't be a huge risk for a player of his skill.

Maybe, just maybe, such a signing bolsters TV and crowd numbers and generates revenue for the team, and re-vitalizes the city as a baseball hotbed. Of course, Vladi's back casts a huge shadow on his future, but then maybe we get him at a discount. :)

It's nice to dream.

I thought that if Delgado were to be let go that a big time deal for Vladdy could, just maybe, be possible for the Jays. I don't think anyone will command that 18 million anytime soon, so maybe you get Vladdy over Delgado for about 3 million less. With Vladimir not exactly being a fan of the spotlight, maybe Toronto would be alright with him, and they'd have the money because of Delgado's deal expiring.

Choice #1: Trade Carlos before he hits free agency. The man is worth what he's paid (or at worst, he hasn't been overcompensated by too drastic an amount) but pitching > hitting; the $$$ that'd go towards retaining his services could easily fetch the team a darned good starting pitcher and perhaps a capable reliever.

Choice #2: Gross is further along than Ford-Griffin or Rios and should make an appearance in the bigs in '04. Werth should be employed as trade bait, perhaps to a team that still values his catching skills (no gold glover, but he can play that position). Phelps plays first, Kielty plays OF and leads off (my '04 outfield is Kielty in left, Vernon in centre and Gross in right). Frankie Cat, as good as he is, will never hit lefties; keep him at DH as long as he's affordable.

Choice #3: Hudson's cheap, serviceable and capable defensively and yet (as with Cat) hardly indispensable.

Choice #4: see #1; the money saved on Carlos goes towards pitching.

Choice #5: umm..bullpen discussions can get boring :(

I didn't read the original post that closely. My decisions were based for 2005 and beyond.

First I would like to point out that Valentin comment was more on the " what a shame that the superduo and the super ace are not going to receive the glory of postseason for their heroics" than "this GM is not doing enough..."
1- Delgado all the time. I would not call it hometown discount but a more realistic market price after your well paid prime passed...
2-My dream OF: Rios LF, Wells CF, Gross RF. In the meantime Kielty, Werth and Johnson...
3- IF: I see SS more like a hole to fill than too many on board. Delgado/ O'or Adams/ blank / Hinske or Hill.
4. Doc ( sign him now! ) Escobar ( three years deal. Hopefully ) Two of the super kids ( Mcgowan, Arnold, League )
5. The reliable four plus Thurman, Bush, and a better management.

I'd like to see Lopez start. Kershner, Politte, Miller, look like bullpen keepers.

I just want to start by pointing out that the "Choose Your Own Adventure" series was one of the greatest and most underrated kids' book lines around. I'll never understand why someone didn't buy the rights to it and turn it into a CD-ROM home game. The Cave of Time rocks. Mike, I salute you.

1. Delgado

I suppose the easy way out is to say "If he's affordable, sign him." I like Josh Phelps, Bobby Kielty and John-Ford Griffin. But none of these guys projects to be the monster Carlos is and should continue to be till he hits, say, 33 or 34. He's a tremendous hitter, a charismatic presence and a marketer's dream. Shelve the Chris-Woodward-as-Mountie commercials and package Delgado, Wells, Halladay and Hinske in your ad campaigns from noon till night.

Now ... will he be affordable in 2005? I'm assuming no hometown discount, though I imagine Carlos would at least listen to Toronto's offer before looking elsewhere. So where is the market going? The sense seems to be that the elite players will still get their paydays, and it's the reserve and middle-level players who are taking the brunt of the market contraction. Maybe so, but a lot of teams are going to look at David Bell and Tom Glavine after this season and wonder precisely what the Phils and Mets paid ~$20M for. I think even the top talent salaries will start to decrease, such that by the end of 2004, $12M a season might be all that even an elite first baseman could reasonably command. If not, or if there's a Tom Hicks out there determined to throw bad money after good, then of course the Jays are out, and Josh Phelps and John-Ford Griffin duke it out at first base. And even if $12M somehow does it, it's going to be a terribly tight squeeze.

Wells and Hinske will cost, what, around $4M each per season by the middle of their contracts? I can't track down the breakdown of their deals. And Doc can be expected to come in, at best, at maybe $8M a season, probably more. There's at least $16M taken up for three players; Carlos at $12M would bring it to $28M. Buy yourself a #2 starter in 2005 and there's another $7M, say. So you've got five guys pulling down $35M of a, say, $55M budget. Can you afford 20 more players in 2005 at an average of $1M each? If anyone could do that, it's JP. I'd say that keeping Carlos after his contract expires is now barely realistic. But that's more than it was even six months ago. If I'm the GM, and I can afford it without cancelling staff dental plans, Delgado returns.

2. The outfield

2004: Catalanotto, Wells, Kielty. Backups: Johnson, free agent
2005: Rios, Wells, Gross. Backups: Johnson, Kielty

At this point, I just can't deal either Rios or Gross. Their ceilings are too high; they could be putting up 850+ OPSes from 2005 to 2008 for circa the league mimimum; that's just too valuable to deal away, especially if Carlos comes back and money is short. Outfield is still not a deep position in this organization; if I need to deal prospects, they'll come from the middle infield, catcher and the A-Ball pitching staff. I can see trading Kielty, though: his numbers will be just good enough to generate serious interest. I'm projecting John-Ford Griffin for either 1B, DH or the trading block. And at some point, Jayson Werth, Brandon League and Dominic Rich are going to be packaged for a major-league arm.

3. The middle infield

2004: Woodward/Hudson
2005: Woodward/Adams
2006: Hill/Adams

I'm not as confident about this. I'm not sure if the O-Dog has hit his offensive ceiling yet, but I don't think he'll ever reach .280/.350/.450 consistently. He's terrific defensively, though, and makes the kind of highlight-reel catches that can eventually turn into Gold Gloves. So he should have a lot of perceived value and I'd trade him, but I don't know if I'd do it before mid-'05, because the replacement probably won't be ready. Russ Adams has just arrived at AA, and it's too soon to tell how he'll do over a full season there. He'll almost certainly open 2004 at AA, though, and I think he should make it to Syracuse by the end of that season. That could be enough to get him to the majors as early as spring '05, which is also when Cat will be gone and I'll need a new leadoff guy. Somewhere in 2005, I'll make the change from Hudson to Adams.

Hill is probably a better shortstop than Adams, and is the logical candidate to replace Chris Woodward as soon as humanly possible. But he's just too young to project a timetable for; he looks like he might move faster than Adams, but it's way too early to tell. Frankly, 2005 is optimistic. Woody may well remain the shortstop largely by default, though there's also a wildcard: I don't think Jorge Sequea has finished growing yet, and if he's no worse with the glove than Woody, then I give him a long look next spring training. Dominic Rich is not in my plans.

4. Rotation

Obviously, I start with Roy. After that ... well, in terms of in-house solutions for 2004, I'd be content to put Corey Thurman into the rotation in spring training and give him as many starts as he can handle. Mark Hendrickson has to show me a lot more before I give him the ball regularly in 2004, and I'm not sure I'm going to see it. I do want to see what Jason Kershner could do with five innings of work every five days. Also, I'm not going to forget about Justin Miller, though I'm also not really counting on him to be healthy and effective. By July, Jason Arnold should be ready to take a regular turn in the rotation. So between Thurman, Hendrickson, Kershner, Miller and Arnold, I figure I can count on two starters' worth of outings, at most. Therefore, I need two more guys to fill the '04 rotation.

If Kelvim is on my roster by the end of 2003, then I offer him arbitration: either he comes back for $4.5M or so, or I take the money he would've cost and get myself a decent #3 guy for one season. Then I scrape up whoever's available in spring training to fill the other slot. This will still be a patchwork rotation, but I'm not seriously expecting to contend this year, so I'm not going to go to the Bank of Godfrey and ask for an advance. Not yet, anyway. Dave Bush and Dustin McGowan will spend most of 2004 at Syracuse. I'm counting on one of them to make the grade.

2005:

Roy Halladay ($8M)
Free-agent #2 starter ($7M)
Jason Arnold
Corey Thurman
Bush/McGowan

I like that rotation.

5. Bullpen

Yeah, I can't really get into the bullpen either. Suffice to say that everyone currently sitting out there beyond the right-field fence not named Aquilino will be drawing a paycheque somewhere else. Bob File would be a nice reclamation project. Dave Bush might be eased into the rotation via the bullpen in late '04 or '05. Adam Peterson and Jordan DeJong deserve the chance to work out their kinks, but neither will likely be reliable before mid-2005 at the earliest. Wild card: I'd put Vince Perkins into the bullpen at Dunedin and watch what happens; if it clicks, he gets fast-tracked to Syracuse. Other than that, we'll have to wait and see. But I'll say this: I'm not going to assemble a closer-by-committee. Rotating closers may make all the sense in the world economically and sabrmetrically, but they just don't seem to work in practice except as a stopgap or emergency measure. I'm still open to the concept, and I certainly don't intend to pay Ugueth Urbina $5M for the role, but if I can manage it, I'm getting one guy to be the go-to reliever in the late innings (not exclusively the 9th, though).

6. Front office

I'm hiring all the members of the ZLC to be Advisors, Kibbitzers and Ministers Without Portfolio. Always surround yourself with people smarter than you are.

Outfield is still not a deep position in this organization; if I need to deal prospects, they'll come from the middle infield, catcher and the A-Ball pitching staff.

I think outfield is deeper in our farm system than middle infield.

Outfield: Gabe Gross, Alexis Rios, John-Ford Griffin, and Jayson Werth (if he's still considered a prospect)
Middle Infield: Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Jorge Sequea and Dominic Rich

Sequea and Rich are still big question marks, at least bigger than Werth or Griffin. In the majors we have Kielty, Wells, and Johnson versus Hudson and Woodward. So if we were to deal prospects from a position of strength, it'd probably be from one of the catchers or outfielders. Of course, more teams are looking for middle infielders, so if one of Hudson or Woodward play well enough to stay, one of Hill or Adams will probably be traded for pitching.

I hope Hudson gets no-arbitration deal like Hinske and Wells did, defence up the middle IS important and not all of them can be superhuman like Wells. I'm sure O-Dawg is sorry that he's not an all-star, but I think we'll just have to settle for the usefulness he enjoys now. It's hard to believe the lack of credit the he gets here. He's been 2X the player Cat has, for 1/4th the price.

As for future shortstop, how's Fernandez these days? We might deal for Cabrera if we want to make a run.

while they still have arguably the game's most feared first baseman

Giambi plays for Toronto?

Jurgen, that's why Jordan said "arguably." You could argue Delgado is as feared as Giambi; you may not be right, but you can make a case for it.

I'd rather have Delgado in his mid-30s than Giambi. He's not likely to age as poorly as Giambi will: Jason's not in the best shape, while Delgado is more trim and muscular -- but not Jose-Canseco or Ruben-Sierra muscular. Those are the kind of players who break down and lose value quickly, not the Delgado-type players (though the atrophy of his knees on the turf is a legitimate concern). Giambi is not in as bad as shape as Mo Vaughn, but it's not unreasonable to suggest -- and I have no idea what will happen, and if I did I would be buying the Yankees from my Vegas winnings -- that Giambi will lose it as quickly as Big Mo did.

So, by the end of Giambi's contract, and when you consider Jeter's likely fade into averageness, the Yankees could very well be looking at around $35 million of essentially lost money. But they're the Yankees, so at the same time Vladimir Guerrero will be in his fourth year of his seven-year/140 million deal he'll sign with the Bronx Bombers next year, and, while Giambi and Jeter may not, Vlad'll be earning his salary while lacing up the spikes in 2007.

Sorry, that was Mike D. who made the Delgado statement. And even though Mike hops from Vegas to the Greek Islands every two months or so, I'll defend him.

It's the last time, though.

Choice One

I'd gamble and see if you can talk them down. Otherwise, no. If Boston or Oakland wants to pay him $50 M plus, let them. It wouldn't be horrible if Ted opens his wallet, and it doesn't affect the club's ability to sign Halladay AND acquire another top tier starter... but more on this later.

Choice Two

So, Carlos walks. I love Cat, but unless he's willing to sign on for about the same as this year, Kielty means he can probably walk too.

'03
1B/DH Delgado
DH/1B Phelps
LF/1B/DH Kielty
CF Wells
RF Johnson/Gross/Werth

'04
1B/DH Phelps
DH/1B/LF Kielty
LF/CF Rios
LF Griffin
CF/RF Wells
RF Gross/Werth

Choice Three

I second the sign Orlando Hudson chorus. Obviously, he doesn't deserve Wells/Hinske money, but he's got a great glove and a good bat.

Start playing Hill and Adams at SS, and otherwise keep Bordic/Woodward.

Lurch:

We might deal for Cabrera if we want to make a run.

I wouldn't want to risk his back on turf. But I think New York would be crazy not to sign him (he's a free agent, no?) and move Jetes to 3B.

Choice Four

The Jays will be lucky if they can sign Halladay for $24 M over 3 years. Even in this market, I don't think he'll come cheaper than $30 M. Do it anyways.

Also, I think Roy needs a co-ace. Screw trading prospects. Go out an get Millwood this offseason knowing you're not resigning Delgado next year. That'll cost you another $30 M.

On the plus side, Lidle and Escobar might be affordable this off season. Keep shopping them, obviously, but also work to try to get them back on the cheap.

Thurman can probably handle the last spot/long relief (assuming the club is still going with the modified four man rotation).

The Jays aren't Oakland, and can't expect all their pitching prospects to turn out and be aces. Besides, the kids might be better off in the bullpen in '04 and '05. Which brings us to...

Choice Five

Lopez and Politte are keepers, obviously. And I think Arnold is a good bet to be effective, if not dominant, in the pen in '04. McGowan and/or Bush and/or League might find a home there, too. That still leaves a lot of work to do... I wonder what you'd have to give Houston to get Dotel? (Adams?) You still need a quality lefty or two (come on, Keith!), but you've got the start of a good pen--at least a better pen.

Final Words

I think it's important to keep in mind that the offense doesn't need to be quite this impressive if the non-Roy pitching staff can prevent the occasional run. With a Millwood type and a couple of crafty RP pick-ups, I think the Jays can be serious threats to go wild (get it?) in '04.

Gitz, for someone who rightly jumps on those who abuse the English language, I can't believe you are defending "arguably".

You can "argue" Delgado is "better", but you'll lose the argument. "More feared"? Maybe, but only in the same world where Sosa is more feared than Bonds.

Giambi was a relative late bloomer, and he's two years older than Delgado. But here are their OPS+ stats for the last three seasons:

Giambi 188, 202, 174
Delgado 182, 141, 153

Besides, Jason looks like he's in much better shape this year.

I'm not going to argue with you about who's likely to be less geriatric in 2010. Right now, Giambi is better, and more feared. (And Thome is, too.)

Hey! I only abuse people who misuse "e-mail." Unless I know the person, and then I'm "arguably" the biggest snob around. Besides, I didn't actually say Delgado was better; I merely said you could argue that claim. And, in fact, I even said you might be wrong for suggesting it! ("First you didn't want me to get the pony. Now you want me to take it back. Make up your mind!")

On a completely-related-yet-equally-off-topic story, today I received an e-mail criticizing something I had written for my business magazine. In the article in question, I had said that "my MA in English puts me, in theory, in the upper-tier" for intelligence. Now, had I taken more than the usual five minutes I ration to write this trash, I would have mentioned in the article that the "in theory" really means "Because I have two college degrees I am supposed to be smarter than the average Yahoo. This just goes to show you that most theories smell worse than your average MLB commissioner. In other words, for those still in doubt, and because I can see now, in retrospect, that I was not clear, I'm trying to say that, despite my two college degrees from a bush-league Cal-State school, I'm not all that bright. Queries and complaints may be sent to Mick Doherty, who also has two degrees AND is a smart fella."

Oh, right, my point: in his e-mail, the writer claims that I am not, in fact, "inteligent." If you're going to rip on me for not being "inteligent" -- and certainly I provide better ammo than the above parchment -- then at least friggin' spell the word right. I put it to you, the good people here at Da Box: is that too much to ask?

No. But then I'm not particularly brite.

Which batter is more feared is a subjective judgement. How are you going to prove that Giambi is more feared than Delgado, or vice-versa? The best way would be to test pitchers' vital signs every time one of them comes up and average the results. That's not going to happen any time soon.

The next best way would be to take a poll of American League pitchers. Individuals do not always accurately assess their own emotions, so, while interesting, such a poll wouldn't approach scientific accuracy.

There's nothing wrong with using the word "arguably" in this (non-rigorous) context. It doesn't mean that someone can make some sort of case, rather it means that someone can make a reasonable case. That too is a subjective judgement.

I'm surprised that several people have Kielty becoming the 4th outfielder in 2005. Wasn't Shannon Stewart generally regarded as a good-hit useless-defense outfielder, whom the Jays would have kept as their left fielder if he wasn't expensive? After the trade, the consensus seemed to be that Kielty was an equal hitter and better defender (With some debate over his slump earlier this year, but the number of people who understood all that was not significant). So if Stewart's good enough to be a regular and Kielty is better than Stewart, it doesn't follow that you would keep Kielty but not give him 500 ABs a year. If we're that high on Rios, Gross, and the notorious JFG, then Kielty should be dealt. The man is more than a good bat off the bench, just ask Aaron Gleeman.

Personally, I would send Kielty packing either now (Billy Beane, you know you need him!) or next July, IF the return is good. I would also shop John-Ford. I don't dislike him, but I think his upside is considerably less than Phelps / Rios / Gross.

It will be very interesting to see the offers that Millwood gets this offseason, I think that will have a big influence on what it takes to lock up Halladay. The idea of the Jays signing Millwood sounds pretty good to me, but I think I'd rather sign Vazquez - isn't he a free agent after 2004? I'd happily trade for Vazquez right now, but I'd expect the asking price to be mighty high.

Big thanks to Gizzi and Dudek. They're arguably the best co-authors I've ever had.

Jose Lima--arguably the best pitcher in the AL since June.