Wonder if a Lidle for Fossum deal would be acceptable to both teams. I would think the way Kelivim has pitched since becoming a starter, he would bring more back than Fossum. Then again, I had Fossum on my roto team at the start of the year before releasing him by May, so I may have some bitterness there

I thought of a Lidle/Escobar for Fossum deal being possible earlier in the season, but I've soured on Fossum this year, not unlike mathesond. Maybe if Lidle could pick up Fossum it would be alright (his numbers last year were promising). I hope that if the Jays NEED to move Escobar they cna pick up something better than Fossum.

Brian Sabean once said, angrily, of Gammons: "That guy's right once out of 100. Who needs him?"

Jordan, if Fossum is a favorite of sabermetric types, why would the Red Sox trade him? I'm not saying the trade won't happened or anything, though.

Hijack: There is a nice article about Aquilino's heritage and some of Latino's handicaps in //bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/news?slug=mlbpa-garciahopestofulfillhis that is a small window in yahoo baseball page, starts with Karim as a 15 year old phenom, then Aquilinos.

I am a rookie poster here and thanks to Matheson I have been lurking and reading this site everyday for over 6 weeks.

Add me the list of fans who don't want Fossum. Hey Matheson , out of our 16 team roto league and approximatly 160 pitchers , nobody wants Fossum since you waived him.

I DO NOT SEE J.P picking up Fossum either.

I Agree with J.P action so far of getting the best talent available for Escobar and Lidle.

The next few days till the trading deadline will be very interesting.

If Boston's trading Fossum, it has less to do with Ricciardi driving a "hard bargain" a lot more to do with Boston souring on the intial value it placed on him: young, a starter, and cheap.

Offseason weight training didn't add any bulk, and to my knowledge he still can't throw an effective third pith, which I believe is a changeup.

Shane I agree Fossom is a DL waiting to happen, he is to frail

I'm highly in favor of trading for Fossum. He's 25, has a chance to be a #2 or #3 starter, is in the majors now, has a strong K rate, is left handed and will be real cheap for a few years.

Even with his struggling 2003 season included he's still has put up solid ratios in Boston, and has great numbers in the minors.

MLB - 216 Innings, 4.40 ERA, 7.6 K9, 3.2 BB9, 1.0 HR9
AAA. - 25 Innings, 3.96 ERA, 10.1 K9, 2.2 BB9, 0.4 HR9
AA. - 117 Innings, 2.82 ERA, 10.0 K9, 2.2 BB9, 0.4 HR9
A.. - 163 Innings, 3.24 ERA, 8.8 K9, 2.3 BB9, 0.4 HR9

Said another way, Jason Arnold isn't putting up those numbers in the minors and most everyone is high on his prospects for the Jays.

Here's some comparibles to Fossum:

Player/K9/BB9/HR9
Fossum - 7.6/3.2/1.0 - ML Career
Fossum - 7.6/3.7/1.1 - 2003

Player/K9/BB9/HR9 (2003)
M. Clement - 7.5/3.3/1.2
W. Miller - 7.5/3.3/0.8
R. Wolf - 7.9/3.0/1.0
H. Nomo - 7.6/3.8/0.9
Wakefield - 7.9/3.6/1.0
Pettitte - 7.8/2.3/1.2
Millwood - 7.5/3.3/0.6
A. Eaton - 7.5/3.3/0.6
B. Zito - 5.9/3.6/0.9 (not that comparible, just interesting to me)

The more I dig the more I want Fossum.

Pistol, good/bad numbers aside, and forget that his conditioning/body type may or may not allow for sustained success beyond the fifth/sixth innings, isn't the fact that he has not come up with a third effective pitch make him less desireable, if you believe you're acquiring a 'starter' not a career reliever? let alone have a chance at him becoming a "#2 or #3 starter"?

If you look at Fossum's performance beyond 75 pitches, it's uniformly terrible. Unless there's an impactful change in his physical makeup and endurance, I don't see him as much more than a 3 or 4 inning middle man. Now the off-season weight training didn't make a difference but do we know that he had qualified supervision and followed a diet which would help him see results? If you do things right it's very unusual that you wouldn't see results, particularly if you're 6'1 and only 165 lbs.

Not that Fossum can't be very useful to a major league team in a middle innings or lefty setup role, but if I'm trading a capable starter I'd rather try to get a starter back. If Boston adds another significant player to that deal, I'd say do it. I think the BoSox are eager to sign up Escobar as a #3 starter for the coming years too.

I'm not sure that looking at 47 ABs in 2002 and 30 ABs this year is enough to say that he can't go beyond 75 pitches.

From pitches 91-105 he has an OPS allowed of .489 in 27 ABs in 2002 and .535 in 17 ABs in 2003.

I think it's a lot of randomness of small sample sizes here.

That's just one point that i'm saying...regardless of his stats or how late he's gone in games to date. A guy who has failed to come up with a third effective pitch, is this the "starting" pitcher you think you're acquiring?

Boston didn't just decide to finally trade him because his gangly body is destroying morale in the showers.

A guy who has failed to come up with a third effective pitch, is this the "starting" pitcher you think you're acquiring?

Yes.

Although I didn't know about the destroying morale problem......

Well a pitcher can make due with two pitches if they're very good pitches and he has good command of them (see Roy Halladay). Fossum is no Roy Halladay though. He's Mark Hendrickson with a better curveball. And he's a LESS efficient pitcher than Kelvim Escobar which is saying something, averaging 16.9 pitches per inning.

As far as endurance, his pitches per game started career is 89.8. Escobar's is 100.5. Fossum averages 5.1 innings per start while Escobar averages 6.1. I think it's pretty apparent that Fossum has a problem getting deep into games, or at least being trusted to get deep into games. I don't think a starter that averages less than 6 innings is of much use. He's also only two years younger than Escobar so counting on any physical development isn't advisable.

Fossum might be a good pitcher in time but I would never trade Escobar straight up for him.

"Fossum might be a good pitcher in time but I would never trade Escobar straight up for him"

But would you trade 2 months of Escobar for 2/3 years of Fossum?

I would, if I thought Fossum could start and pitch deep into games. This is a case like Shannon Stewart where you're trading a player for a player who figures to be just as good, if not better in the long run. I see no evidence to point to Fossum ever being as good as Escobar is today. He probably is better than he's shown this year but if he can't get past the 6th inning on most nights, his value to the Jays is considerably below the value of Escobar to the Jays.

If you want further evidence of Fossum having fundamental endurance problems, he spent 32 days on the DL between June and July with shoulder problems. Shoulder injuries on relatively young pitchers are pretty concerning and don't respond well to surgical procedures either. See Sirotka, Carpenter, Prokopec, etc.

Since coming back, Fossum has only made two appearances in two and a half weeks. It's obvious that Boston isn't attempting to stretch him out into a starter again and they feel he's superfluous to their current team. They're in doubt about his ability to be a starter and are trying to trade him before permenantly downgrading his value by turning him into a long reliever.

Since Boston (under Epstein) have yet to show any willingness to trade away anything of real value (unlike Billy Beane, say) you would have to be wary of anything they dangled in trades. If they really are willing to let Fossum go, one has the suspicion that they themselves think he isn't very good.

I see no evidence to point to Fossum ever being as good as Escobar is today.

Who cares? It would be nice if he were but that's not the point. If he sticks around, it's unlikely that Escobar would be coming back to Toronto at the end of the year and even if he did, he'd be getting a raise on his $3.9M. So, it comes down to exactly what Gerry touched on, isn't 2 months of Escobar worth Fossum? He's cheap, already above average, servicable at very worst and with a possible big upside.

The Hatteberg signing by Oakland is apparently $5 million over two years, with a $2.7 million team option for 2006.

That is, in my view, a terrible signing.

Again, one has to wonder if Beane's ego is getting in the way of his judgement. As much as I hate to bring up Moneyball (since it seems to be all the rage to do so lately), the Hatteberg chapter paints the picture of Beane being so brilliant to be able to scoop this undervalued player for cheap when no one else wanted him. And it was a very good move...at that time. But if Beane were to ditch Hatteberg now that he's older, declining and more expensive, it might be perceived that those proclamations of brilliance were all BS.

FWIW, Hatteberg has almost zero power vs. lefties (329 SLG lifetime vs. 435 against righties). If Oakland only platooned him, they might be able to get more production out of 1B. Still, you can find half a 1B/DH platoon for much cheaper than $2.5M.

Really, outside of this year I think Fossum's numbers are very encouraging. I'd make this deal right now, as I don't see a better offer coming down the pike. And I'd like to get some kind of return for Escobar.

After all, what do the Jays need? Starting pitching that can help in the close to immediate future. To me, Fossum fits that bill pretty well.

Who cares? It would be nice if he were but that's not the point. If he sticks around, it's unlikely that Escobar would be coming back to Toronto at the end of the year and even if he did, he'd be getting a raise on his $3.9M. So, it comes down to exactly what Gerry touched on, isn't 2 months of Escobar worth Fossum? He's cheap, already above average, servicable at very worst and with a possible big upside.

I care very much as someone who hopes to see the Jays continue to win more games than the previous years and not slide backwards. Casey Fossum was above average (in fact very good) in his big league time last year. He is not above average this year, especially not as a starter. There has to be something more and it has to be significantly more in order for me to like a trade with Boston.

We can't ALWAYS be afraid of spending money. We spent $5.3 million this year on a guy who is probably a 3rd or 4th start on good teams. We were willing to spend $6 million to trade for Russ Ortiz who isn't any better than Escobar. We spent a million on a guy who has never been a good starter. Assuming that we can get Escobar under contract in the $5 or $6 million range, is that preferable to giving up prospects for a number two pitcher? Why is it not possible to do both and then have a good team for the next two or three years and give the young pitchers the time they need to develop low in the rotation and the pen?

Because as far as I've seen, we've maxed out on offence. We're not going to get any better than we've been this year...maybe ever. We're second in the league right now...we can't do much more there. So if the best you can do with a second place offensive team is 3 or 4 games over .500 then pitching is not a place where you can afford to be cheap.

Appropos of nothing, Fossum was sent down to AAA by the BoSox.

Also from the latest Gammons:

Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi watched the Cape Cod League this week, while working on deals for Kelvim Escobar and Cory Lidle. Ricciardi seemed frustrated that things were moving slowly, with the Braves, Cardinals, Red Sox, White Sox and others in line for Escobar. Everyone knows that the Jays and A's would like to do a three-way that would send Escobar to the Cardinals, J.D. Drew to the A's and Ted Lilly and a prospect to Toronto, although Oakland is now reluctant to include right-hander Joe Blanton, who in his Midwest League stint pitched 133 innings, allowed 132 baserunners, struck out 144 and walked 19. "Blanton's command and stuff are so good that he's going to be a 200-250 inning horse," one A's official said, "and he's going to be in our rotation at this time next year."

The Red Sox made Casey Fossum available for Escobar, but the Jays consider the Boston offer "on the backburner." Toronto, like several other teams, is less enamored with Fossum now than in April. "He's got to make adjustments in his delivery to create more downhill angle," one GM said. "He throws uphill. One of our hitters said, 'the fastball's not there' when we recently faced him." The Red Sox staff hasn't had much luck getting through to the left-hander.

So all of a sudden the A's are more enamoured with Blanton (coincidentally following a 7 inning, 14 K outing) and promoted him to AA. And the Red Sox are actively trying to trade Fossum after refusing to budge on him for Bartolo Colon earlier in the year. Teams have soured on him and rightfully so.

I really hope the Jays do not settle for a crappy deal and at the very least take two draft picks for Escobar. Bringing him back for another year wouldn't be the end of the world either.

I really hope the Jays do not settle for a crappy deal and at the very least take two draft picks for Escobar.

Escobar likely won't be a Type A....one draft pick.

Escobar was type A last year. So was Lidle. I'm not sure what the stats are that determine those rankings, but I'm pretty sure Kelvim can equal what Lidle did last year.

Boston Herald: "Their interest in the Blue Jays' Kelvim Escobar remains sincere, but so far they have been unwilling to budge beyond offering left-hander Casey Fossum, while the Blue Jays want both Fossum and Double-A lefty prospect Jorge de la Rosa."

de la Rosa was an Eastern League All Star this year.

Jorge de la Rosa? What a great name!

Yeah, I'm trilling the name here in my office right now...

"Jorrrge de la Rrrrrrrrrrrooooooosssaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"

Jorge de la Rosa (Portland AA):

3.01 ERA, 89 IP, 79 H, 33 BB, 95 SO, 6 HRA

It looks like good stuff.

I'm reminded of a pre-season interview with Epstein where he noted that they will never make a trade unless they're certain they're getting the better end of it. In that light, it's not surprising that Boston insists on only giving up Fossum for Escobar. I say forget them.

If St. Louis actually had any pitching propsects, Escobar would have been gone long ago.