Tim Whittaker seems to be Kevin Cash Lite. He signed as an undrafted free agent in 2001 (two years after Cash), and posted a nice .299/.364/.433 line in 140 PA in Auburn that year, following it up with a promising .308/.373/.440 line in 303 PA last year in Charleston. This year in Dunedin, he's slipped to .287/.364/.357 in 179 PA. At 24 years of age, Whittaker needs to kick it into high gear to have a chance of making it past Toronto's logjam of catching prospects. I wish him well, but I wouldn't want to be facing those odds.

The Rios quote is interesting. He did "hit" a homerun, but struck out his other two AB's, maybe he meant "'fouling fastballs away' off all day, and then striking out'"?

Vermilyea's pitching way way too good, too good to be true, he's going to fall in front of the team bus or something.

Dustin McGowan had a good outing last night

7IP 4H 1ER and 4 Ks

rios and adams got 2 hits each, adam's start in AA has been very encouraging. Rich and Griffin have both increased their respective BAs recently. New Havens batting is scary even without Gross.

Josh Banks put up a nice 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 HR line, but Jeremy Harper and Brian Reed couldn't hold a 4-1 lead and the Doubledays lost 5-4 to Johnson City. Banks is up to 26.2 IP, 25 H, 4 BB, 32 K, 0 HR on the year; it's still early, but bad pitchers don't often put up numbers like that.

Sandy Nin got cuffed around to the tune of 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR in a 4-0 loss to Kannapolis. I still think he deserves a promotion to Dunedin; he's up to 98 IP, 92 H, 13 BB, 71 K, 3 HR. The K rate isn't as high as you'd like, but you have to like the 5.5 strikeouts per walk. I'd put my money on him over Neomar Flores any day.

Nothing else of significance happened in the Jays' minor league games last night, as far as I can tell, but maybe Coach will have something to fill in.

Gotta love that Auburn team. Vermilyea, Banks, Marcum, Isenburg, and Buzachero (an '02 draftee) all off to good pitching starts while a number of others are doing well in the K/BB area but not so well in ERA. That doesn't even touch the hitting where '03 draftees Hill, Chiaravolotti, Porforio, Roberts, and Snavely are raking. Plus Acey, Tingler, and Reimen aren't doing too badly for Pulaski.

Porfirio was actually a 30th rounder in 2002. He's repeating in Auburn -- last year he hit .221/.322/.311 in 122 AB.

As a 23 year old outfielder turning 24 in December, his chance of making it to the Show is small. Reed Johnson hit .290/.404/.469 in 324 AB in the Sally League and .316/.381/.504 in 133 AB in the FSL at the same age, and he was hardly a top prospect. I wish Porfirio good luck; he'll need it.

The others are reasonably exciting, although one has to be sanguine about college hitters in short-season ball. Auburn's batting stats were good last year as well, if my memory serves me, and very few of the hitters from that 2002 team are doing well this year. In fact, I can't think of a single one other than Russ Adams who hasn't disappointed. Jason Waugh was wretched in Charleston but has been OK in Dunedin since his promotion.

The pitchers are a different story.

John

Well in the next week both New Haven and Auburn will be in OH, so here's hoping I can make it Akron and Mahoning Valley to catch both of them at least once....That Mahoning Valley trip is going to be a haul for me....at least 2 1/2 hours....I really want to see this Auburn team play though....although maybe I shouldn't as the Skychief went 0-3 when I got to see them in Columbus---yea they won the day I didn't go..... I am amazed at how few position players they have on that Syracuse team....during the DH in Col...they had 9 players then when Gross came up they had 10 for the last 2 games....then had another DH.....I hope my observations on Arnold provided at least a little insight....

Syracuse, New Haven, Dunedin, and Pulaski had the night off yesterday.

Charleston lost 2-1, wasting a pretty good outing from DJ Hanson: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR. Then again, Hanson shouldn't have expected much support from an offence that included such luminaries as Justin Owens (.229), John Schneider (.203), Zeph Zinsman (.209), Brad Hassey (.174), and Erik Rico (.179).

Auburn got back on track by beating Jamestown 4-2. A typical outing for the Doubledays: Aaron Hill went 2 for 3 and three pitchers combined to rack up 14 strikeouts against zero walks and five hits, none for extra bases:

Pitcher           IP   H  R ER BB  K HR
Thomas Mastny     5.0  5  2  0  0  8  0
Mark Sopko        3.0  0  0  0  0  4  0
Bubbie Buzachero  1.0  0  0  0  0  2  0

Well, maybe it's not typical, but it's not really a surprise, either.

Buzachero's inching ever-closer to that elusive 50% KBF.

Here are some team pitching stats from the New York-Penn League. As you can see, Auburn is the only team whose pitchers are fanning ten batters per game.

Lowell is a Boston farm team.

BB/G	Team
----  ---------------
1.67	LOWELL
2.57	AUBURN
2.61	BATAVIA
2.74	HUDSON VALLEY
2.75	BROOKLYN
2.85	ABERDEEN
3.19	ONEONTA
3.29	NEW JERSEY
3.52	WILLIAMSPORT
3.54	MAHONING VALLEY
4.00	STATEN ISLAND
5.07	VERMONT
5.11	JAMESTOWN
5.15	TRI-CITY

K/G   Team
----  ---------------
10.00	AUBURN
8.54	TRI-CITY
8.07	BROOKLYN
7.48	ABERDEEN
7.41	ONEONTA
7.33	STATEN ISLAND
7.25	MAHONING VALLEY
7.19	WILLIAMSPORT
7.11	LOWELL
7.07	JAMESTOWN
7.04	NEW JERSEY
6.93	BATAVIA
6.67	HUDSON VALLEY
6.57	VERMONT

K/BB	Team
----  ---------------
4.27	LOWELL
3.89	AUBURN
2.94	BROOKLYN
2.66	BATAVIA
2.62	ABERDEEN
2.43	HUDSON VALLEY
2.33	ONEONTA
2.14	NEW JERSEY
2.05	MAHONING VALLEY
2.04	WILLIAMSPORT
1.83	STATEN ISLAND
1.66	TRI-CITY
1.38	JAMESTOWN
1.30	VERMONT

HR/G	Team
----  ---------------
0.21	BROOKLYN
0.25	NEW JERSEY
0.29	VERMONT
0.30	ONEONTA
0.30	STATEN ISLAND
0.32	AUBURN
0.37	ABERDEEN
0.44	HUDSON VALLEY
0.48	WILLIAMSPORT
0.50	TRI-CITY
0.50	MAHONING VALLEY
0.63	LOWELL
0.64	BATAVIA
0.68	JAMESTOWN

hey John
is there any way of finding out how this years auburn team compares with last years in terms of pitching and hitting.
that K/IP ratio is nasty, for the whole team to do that means either they are all way too old or we have the making of some very good "prospects" if you can call rookie ball players that.
i expect vermilyea's stats inflate team numbers tho

Damn Lowell. Somebody needs to take out Theo Epstein, he's a huge threat to the Jays future.

the A's fans must think the same about JP. I suppose i just means GMs will have to find new ways of getting that edge over the competition.
heres to JP finding one.

but agreed. someone needs to tell theo he's plagiarizing!

Lurch: I wonder if Theo is deliberately drafted control artists while JP is going for strikeout pitchers, or whether these numbers are just how things happen to have fallen out. Personally, I'd take JP's guys, but Lowell's walk rate is still quite impressive.

Ken: Unfortunately, I don't know of a site that keeps track of old minor league team stats. You could theoretically go to www.sports-wired.com, look up one of last year's Auburn pitchers (e.g. David Bush), click on "See David's teammates," open the stats pages of each of those guys in turn, and, finally, add up the numbers. I ain't gonna do it! I can tell you, however, that there's no way that Auburn's staff last year was striking out 10 batters per game.

Auburn's pitchers are most definitely old for their league. I have a vague belief that age is not as important a predictor of future success for pitchers as it is for hitters. I think there is some research out there to support that belief, but I couldn't tell you where it is. I imagine that JP must think the same thing.

Vermilyea (and Buzachero) inflate the team K stats, but then you could pick the top two strikeout pitchers on any team and say the same thing. However, even if you drop both of those guys, your strikeouts per game only drop to 8.8, which would still lead the league. If you take a look at the Auburn stats page, you'll see that it's not just Vermilyea. Practically everyone on that team is striking out a man every inning.

I think short-season pitchers can legitimately be called prospects. If you'd been courageous enough to list Auburn's top pitchers among Toronto's top ten prospects in the offseason, your list would stand up well against the competition. Bush, League, Perkins, Nin, Peterson, and Hanson are all doing well this year. Only Justin Maureau has flamed out, as far as I can recall.

John

no way i'm doing that!

true the team stats are very impressive, i can only hope that the current team does progress as well as the players from last years. Maureau has been dissapointing this year for sure but he can definately not be written off, control problems can be resolved. Banks looks like alot like Bush and if he performs like Bush has in his second year then that's a great example of the jays drafting, again. The guy i'm interested most in is Chad Mulholland, i have a feeling he will be a good prospect next year. He had good college numbers but pitched a lot of innings and i think that the org is giving his arm a rest for this year.

On a side note, considering how well the Auburn team is doing this year and the fact that this years draft is incredibly similar to last years which BA ranked no1. How do you john, and ,rank the jays draft (i know its early) in relation to other team's and previous drafts eg 2002?
and when incidently are BAs ranking published?

Ken,

Very quickly, as I'm on my way out the door:

Comparing the performance of the 2003 draft class through today with the 2002 draft class through July 16, 2002, I'll take 2003 hands down. The 2002 class has continued to do well since then, but I'll still put my money on 2003, if more tentatively.

John

You know something's wrong with you when half of the posts on a thread are yours...

The Jays finally rewarded an Auburn picher with a promotion, but it wasn't Jamie Vermilyea or Josh Banks. Charles Talanoa made his first start for Charleston yesterday. His 4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 0 HR line isn't too impressive, but Charleston still won 4-1. I've spoken about Talanoa in another thread, and BA's Josh Boyd is bullish on him. I imagine that Talanoa got the call because he's been around for a couple of years; for whatever reason, the Jays seem to be hesitant to move new draft picks up the ladder.

Rodney Medina was the offensive star of the RiverDogs, going 2 for 2 with a homer, triple, and two walks. He's up to .258/.327/.434 on the year, with a 30/36 BB/K ratio; if he could add one hit per week, he might be mildly interesting. Medina is 23 and will turn 24 in October, by which time he may very well be the best Venezuelan player under contract to the Blue Jays.

Dunedin won 9-4 behind Mark Hendrickson, who was a giant among men literally but not figuratively: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 0 HR. The good guys racked up 16 hits, but none of them is a great prospect, so it's hard to get excited. Jason Waugh is up to .284/.346/.440 for Dunedin; he'd prefer if we didn't mention his Charleston stats.

Auburn scored five runs in the bottom of the eighth to beat Jamestown 5-2. Aaron Hill went 3 for 4, and a bunch of pitching prospects (James, Core, Romero, Marcum) fanned 9 and gave up five hits (one triple) and a lone walk. James is the only one of these four guys who hasn't been successful this year, and it's good to see him have a solid start.

Oh, and Pulaski lost 1-0. You can't win 'em all.

Rodney Medina was the offensive star of the RiverDogs, going 2 for 2 with a homer, triple, and two walks

A correspondent gently reminded me by email that Rodney Medina was the offensive star of the Alley Cats, not the RiverDogs. Please pardon the error.

Medina is 23 and will turn 24 in October, by which time he may very well be the best Venezuelan player under contract to the Blue Jays.

What about this fellow named Guillmero?

Oops ;)

I forgot that Quiroz is Venezuelan; I was thinking about Escobar. This is why I usually restrict myself to line scores.

Incidentally, let me forestall another correction. In comment #75913 I said that DJ Hanson is having a good year, which is a bit of a stretch.

I was hoping to find another thread for this link, but it fits best here.

Dayn Perry has posted an excellent article at BP comparing the minor league records of good major league pitchers (group A) and poor ones (group B) based on park-adjusted ERA. Essentially, he found little significant difference between the groups. In fact, group B had slightly better minor league K/IP, BB/IP, and (tautologically) K/BB ratios than group A. Group A had a modest edge in HR/IP and ERA.

Although Perry notes that the Group A pitchers spent significantly less time in the minors than the Group B pitchers, he does not discuss the possible confounding factors in this study, including the age of the pitchers and the time spent at each level. More significantly, he does not compare pitchers who had major league careers to those who did not. Such a comparison would clearly have more value.

Perry speculates that minor league HR/IP and H/IP may predict the differences between the two groups he studied. However, when I calculated the correlation coefficient (r-squared) between minor league HR/IP and major league ERA+, base on Perry's data, I got 0.07. Minor-league K/BB (0.001), K/IP (0.008), and BB/IP (0.0006) had even less predictive value. Innings pitched in the minors was the best predictor of major-league success, with a correlation coefficient of 0.10. I did not perform a multivariate analysis. As Perry did not provide data on H/IP, I cannot comment on any relationship between minor league H/IP and major league ERA+.

I am not sure what evidence there is to support the notion that minor league pitching performance can predict major league success, but this article certainly speaks to the contrary.

Hanson's been OK. His K rate is 6.5 per 9 innings, which isn't that good for the Sally League.

The Alley Cats have a couple good diamond-in-the-rough pitchers though... Felix Romero and Ramon Mora are both relievers, but both are striking out TONS of guys and have 3-1 K/W ratios.