Like their big-league brethren, many of the Jays' more interesting minor-leaguers cooled off somewhat in June, but not to the extent of taking the shine off their prospect status. If anything, many of the hitters have simply consolidated their gains and showed that they're for real. The pitchers are a step or two behind, but we knew that would be the case already. Here are some snapshots of the Jays farmhands who most bear watching. Comments and compliments are welcome as always; criticisms will be forwarded to the Vancouver-Whistler Olympic Bid Committee.
Syracuse Skychiefs (AAA)
Jimmy Alvarez, 2B/SS, 23
152 AB, 22 R, .250/.327/.362, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 18 BB, 40 K, 9 SB, 1 CS
Last season at Tennessee, Alvarez walked 79 times in 497 AB; this year, he’s on pace for 58 free passes in that many at-bats. His OBP is also down 55 points from last season. The younger Jorge Sequea has come up beside Jimmy in the passing lane and might yet pull away. The level jump from AA is a tough adjustment, though, and Alvarez has spent some time on the DL this year, so it’s too soon to draw conclusions. He can still be a useful utility guy.
Jason Arnold, RHP, 24
3-3, 4.03, 10 G, 10 GS, 58 IP, 61 H, 21 BB, 44 K, 6 HR, 17.5% KBF
Word out of Skydome is that Arnold will play out the season in Syracuse before likely getting a September call to Toronto. That’s just as well, because he’s certainly not dominating the International League yet. His command did improve in June, after he adjusted to the new league: just 11 walks in his last 37 innings after walking 10 in his first 21. But his strikeout numbers have slowed somewhat. My prediction of a June 2004 arrival-for-good still stands.
Brian Bowles, RHP, 26
0-2, 0.98, 11 saves, 24 G, 0 GS, 27 IP, 20 H, 15 BB, 21 K, 0 HR, 17.5% KBF
Just providing an update on the guy who’s leading the Skychiefs in saves, and a reminder that he offers no real help to a beleaguered Jays bullpen.
Kevin Cash, C, 25
211 AB, 18 R, .256/.306/.384, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 15 BB, 48 K
He’s slowly coming around, but probably too slowly to make a real difference in ’03. His OPS is up 54 points since May 31, and he’s starting to regain his pitch recognition skills from last year. The long-ball power cord is still disconnected, though: after 236 AAA at-bats last year, Cash had 10 round-trippers. It’s a little disturbing that he’s posting a line remarkably similar to Jimmy Alvarez’s. It’ll be summer 2004 before his bat is ready for Toronto; depending on what the Jays do with Wilson and Myers, his glove may get him into a Blue Jays uniform before then.
Simon Pond, 3B, 26
44 AB, 9 R, .364/.404/.682, 5 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 6 K
The hits just keep on coming for Pond, who’s been slowed only by a brief DL trip since his promotion to Syracuse; with Tony Zuniga also disabled for the moment, he’s getting steady play and making the best of it. Don’t get too excited about the power: those three homers all came in the same game. But it seems clear that the organization is going to keep promoting Simon until he can’t handle the opposing pitching, and that hasn’t happened yet. And as for the arguments he’s too old to be a prospect, well, Kevin Cash is 25. He has an iron glove, so 1B and DH are his only positions, and they’re kind of filled in Toronto right now. Pond remains an intriguing shooting star.
Jorge Sequea, SS, 22
75 AB, 13 R, .293/.346/.413, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 9 K, 1 SB, 2 CS
Sequea came over in the off-season from the Tigers’ organization, where he posted a .267/.343/.380 line at AA Erie (41/79 BB/K rate) in 2002. He improved that to a .342/.400/.459 line at 111 New Haven ABs this season, with an 11/21 BB/K rate (granted, he was repeating the Eastern League). He’s held his own nicely since his promotion to Syracuse, and he’s only 22. The Jays may have themselves quite an interesting find here; score another one for the talent hawks in the front office.
Mike Smith, RHP, 25
4-4, 4.82, 15 G, 12 GS, 74 IP, 76 H, 37 BB, 49 K, 7 HR, 11.3% KBF
Okay, I’m just about ready to admit defeat on this one. When you can strike out just a tenth of the batters you face at Triple-A, the writing’s on the wall. The only difference between Smith this year and Pasqual Coco last year was that Coco was repeating the International League (and Smith wasn’t lightening any wallets). The Jays will give him one more season to improve, I suspect, before cutting bait.
Rich Thompson, CF, 24
79 AB, 11 R, .291/.371/.329, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K, 8 SB, 0 CS
He can sure get on base, and he can sure steal bases, and that’s the extent of his offensive skills (I don’t know what Thompson’s like defensively, but if he plays center he can’t be all that bad). He’s now stolen 23 bases in 26 tries this year between AA and AAA. He’s a combined pinch-hitter/pinch-runner at best, unless bundled elsewhere in trade. I’m still rooting for him.
Corey Thurman, RHP, 24
5-2, 4.12, 12 G, 12 GS, 59 IP, 61 H, 21 BB, 52 K, 4 HR, 20.3% KBF
He got hammered in his last start on June 30, throwing off what has otherwise been a pretty attractive line for this former Rule 5er. He might best be served by getting back to Toronto now and learning from some of the best in the game – including guys named Patterson and Halladay – than by sticking around at AAA, where he might be suffering from Vernon Wells Syndrome: an inability to stay focused in the bushes after you’ve tasted success in The Show. I think he’ll perform better than this after his promotion, which should come as soon as he strings together two good starts in a row.
Jayson Werth, C/OF, 24
77 AB, 11 R, .234/.307/.416, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 9 BB, 21 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
This is not going according to plan. In order to swap Werth for pitching (either big-league for a pennant chase or minor-league for future growth), the Jays need the catcher-outfielder to demonstrate a potent bat; a 723 OPS in Triple-A (in just 77 at-bats, admittedly) won’t cut the French’s. He’s been hurt physically, and the roster yo-yoing he’s been forced to endure this season has to have hurt him mentally. But even last year at Syracuse, he hit just .257 and struck out 125 times. It might be worthwhile scaling back our collective expectations of what Werth will bring in trade, unless something really clicks for him in the second half.
New Haven Ravens (AA)
Russ Adams, SS, 22
41 AB, 4 R, .293/.383/.317, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 BB, 8 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
You look at Russ Adams and get the feeling he’s going to hit .290 with a .380 OBP wherever he plays, all the way up the majors. In his first 40 AA at-bats, he’s virtually duplicating what he did in 200 ABs at Dunedin, minus the power that will come (to a degree) in time. He still projects as a terrific leadoff hitter for the 2005 or ’06 Blue Jays. His defence has also steadied, just 2 errors in 10 games at shortstop in New Haven, and hardly any in his last few weeks at Dunedin. The Jays challenged him with the promotion to the Eastern League, and they have to be delighted with his response so far.
David Bush, RHP, 23
1-1, 3.31, 3 G, 3 GS, 16 IP, 15 H, 6 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, 24.2% KBF
After his first Double-A start, a four-inning stint, Bush was pulled from the game with tightness in his elbow, and a similar tightness briefly afflicted hearts and throats in the Jays organization. Bush’s second start was pushed back, and when it came, he got knocked around a little. But his last outing was reassuringly strong, and there’ve been no reports of flare-ups, so we can breathe a little easier. The K/IP and K/BB numbers remain very strong; in fact, David’s numbers in limited AA action very closely resemble those of his teammate Dustin McGowan, below. Bush is coming along very well, but there’ll be a little red flag over his elbow for the next few starts yet.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 24
3-0, 0.00, 5 G, 0 GS, 5 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 HR
With Juan Pena (below) taking over the closer duties for the Ravens, DeJong has moved into a de facto setup role, one that allowed him to vulture three wins in his first five appearances. He’s throwing fine these days, lots of strikeouts but too many walks, just as at Dunedin.
I’ll say at this point, though, that I don’t like the idea of DeJong getting locked into the bullpen. I can understand putting a prospect into a relief role to protect his arm or break him into a new level; Dave Bush started out that way last year. But DeJong has been relieving since his arrival in the organization last summer, and he seems to have too wide a repertoire to be plugged into the old Cliff Pollitte 8th-inning role. He’s a four-pitch guy without one overwhelming pitch in his arsenal; it seems to me that would be far better suited for a starting position. DeJong, like Bush, was a starter in college; why not try him there again? This may be the organization’s long-term plan, and they’re simply giving DeJong some low-pressure innings to get used to the Eastern League. That’s fine, but I sure would like to see him tried out in the rotation soon.
Shawn Fagan, 1B, 25
181 AB, 33 R, .287/.393/.376, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 31 BB, 42 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
Rafael Ramirez once said: “You cannot walk off the Island.” Note to Shawn Fagan: You cannot walk out of Double-A either. Eventually, you need to add power, especially at first base.
Dave Gassner, LHP, 24
5-2, 3.35, 20 G, 11 GS, 80 IP, 80 H, 20 BB, 50 K, 7 HR, 15.0% KBF
Humour me, okay? Gas has been tried out in the bullpen recently; that will be an interesting experiment to monitor.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 24
269 AB, 35 R, .260/.340/.450, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 34 BB, 64 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
I’m liking everything here -- the power, the patience -- except the lack of contact. Almost one in every four at-bats ends in a strikeout for Griffin. I recognize that the K comes with the HR, but if Griffin is having trouble with the whiff against Eastern League pitching, the American League will eat him alive. The batting average has to get into the high 2s or low 3s before Griffin can be considered a true hitting prospect. Considering he hit just .267 in A-Ball last year, this might seem like a tough assignment. But John-Ford is making strides; before this year, he had a total of 13 home runs in three professional seasons. And he was a .400 hitter in college. He’s going to take a little longer, that’s all, than will his New Haven roommate…
Gabe Gross, RF, 24
275 AB, 43 R, .309/.418/.455, 19 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 48 BB, 47 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
The Package is coming together nicely. A .300 average, more walks than strikeouts, developing power: half of those 19 doubles should be flying out of the park in a year or two. I sure would like to find a report on Gross’s defence -- my impression is that he has good range and a strong arm, but that’s not the most comprehensive scouting report ever. Otherwise, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be a Skychief within the next month or two.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 21
1-0, 5.84, 3 G, 3 GS, 12 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, 30.3% KBF
Don’t be alarmed by the ERA -- McGowan has had two great starts and one horrible one at AA, inflating his IP/H numbers as well. Focus instead on the K/IP and K/BB numbers -- very impressive, though in an admittedly teeny sample size. So far, Dustin has shown a remarkable ability to elevate his game to the level to which he’s been promoted: his numbers seem to improve at every stop along the minor-league way. He has many learning curves ahead of him yet, of course, and the Jays will not rush him: he’s only 21 and he should get a full year at Double-A. But he’s getting closer to Toronto all the time.
Juan Pena, RHP, 26
0-0, 2.45, 5 Saves, 7 G, 0 GS, 7 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 1 HR
Look what we found on the free-agent wire, Ma. Some of you might remember Pena from his brief ’99 sojourn as a 22-year-old with the Red Sox (2-0, 0.69, 13 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 15 K), which included a shutout of the Blue Jays. Pena came down with tendonitis that season, but had recovered by the following spring when a freak accident changed his career.
In his final spring 2000 start against the Reds, Pena threw a pitch that Sean Casey lined back off the base of Pena’s wrist. Bizarrely, the impact of the line drive tore the medial collateral ligament in the pitcher’s right elbow, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. On his return, the Red Sox tried to reinstall him as a starter, but he couldn’t manage it and they eventually cut him. The Blue Jays swooped in, signed him, and sent him directly to the AA bullpen, where he’s been performing very well.
Despite his gaudy K numbers, Pena’s not a power guy: he throws a live fastball in the upper 80s (if that, post-surgery), plus a curveball and changeup; his trademark on the mound was command, intelligence and pitchability. I’m not a radar-gun slave, but I’m still skeptical that a young right-hander who can’t approach 90 will succeed in the bigs. Pena could be a short-term relief option, maybe even this season if he continues to pitch well, but I wouldn’t consider him blue-chip.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 21
212 AB, 39 R, .283/.378/.533, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 29 BB, 50 K
On the one hand, Quiroz’s bat has cooled off dramatically: his BA has plummeted and his OPS has dropped from 968 a month ago to 911 today. On the other hand, Quiroz’s batting eye has been amazing: 16 walks in June after just 13 in April and May combined. That stat, more than anything else, tells me that GQ is for real at the plate. He’s had hot starts and cold finishes before – most of his 2002 batting success occurred in April of that year -- but Quiroz is proving that even if he’s not making contact, he can contribute at the plate. With his throwing arm as sound as ever, Guillermo has to be considered as the new front-runner for the job of Future Toronto Catcher. Still, keep an eye on that BA….
Dominic Rich, 2B, 24
195 AB, 22 R, .231/.306/.282, 0 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB, 24 K
Something ain’t right here. A solid .300 hitter throughout his college career at Auburn, Rich hit .345 for Dunedin last year before batting .273 in a late-season promo to Tennessee: his combined BB/K ratio was 75/72. So what exactly is going on in Dominic’s second trip around AA? He suffered a groin injury earlier this season that was supposed to have healed, but maybe it’s still bothering him. If he was simply scuffling along at .255, I might think he had just reached his ceiling much earlier than expected, but this degree of futility suggests either a hidden injury or a slump of Grossian proportions. Gabe came out of it, so Rich can as well.
Alexis Rios, CF, 22
280 AB, 45 R, .354/.412/.514, 18 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 40 RBI, 24 BB, 50 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
Like his Futures Game teammate Quiroz, Rios also has started returning to earth this month: his BA is down 24 points since May 30, his OPS down 83 points. He also added 20 strikeouts in June against just 7 walks. No surprise or shame in that; he was flying very high. But his power has remained fairly steady, especially in the doubles and triples categories, and he’s avoided protracted slumps. I don’t think his numbers have finished bottoming out, but I also don’t think there’s much farther to go. My guess is he’ll finish this year in New Haven and start next year at Syracuse, but if he maintains a 900+ OPS through July, the call may come sooner than that.
Dunedin Blue Jays (High-A)
Tyrell Godwin, CF, 24
251 AB, 33 R, .255/.325/.295, 0 HR, 27 RBI, 22 BB, 33 K, 11 SB, 5 CS
Runs are hard enough to come by in the Florida State League, but with the trade of Jason Perry and the promotion of Russ Adams, the D-Jays are particularly short on offence these days, such that Godwin is one of their premier offensive threats. He’s finally staying healthy, but he’s not putting up the kind of numbers he needs to break out of A-Ball, which he really needs to do at his age. If he hovers around a 600 OPS all year, his future with the organization may be in doubt.
Jesse Harper, RHP, 22
7-3, 2.72, 16 G, 14 GS, 79 IP, 68 H, 18 BB, 57 K, 3 HR, 17.5% KBF
Jesse remains a borderline pitching prospect, but he’s really improved his numbers over the last month. His ERA dropped slightly, his KBF rose 2.5% points, and he gave up fewer hits -- but the really impressive stat is his 20/2 K/BB ratio in June. If he keeps that up, he’s going to get himself added to a few need-to-watch lists.
Brandon League, RHP, 20
0-1, 5.87, 2 G, 1 GS, 7 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 4 K, 0 HR
Limited action for the Jays’ high-school phenom has produced unimpressive numbers so far, but you can tell even less from two appearances than you can from three. Remember, League is just 20 years old; expect his career path to resemble Dustin McGowan’s somewhat.
Justin Maureau, LHP, 22
1-3, 6.67, 17 G, 3 GS, 27 IP, 32 H, 19 BB, 21 K, 0 HR, 15.3% KBF
Poor Justin. Starting or relieving, it’s just not clicking for him so far this year. In fairness, Maureau’s early-career struggles are more typical of professional rookies, even those drawn from the college ranks, as teams like the Jays tend to favour – we’ve been rather spoiled with the fast starts displayed by much of the 2002 draft class. Justin might need a trip down to Charleston at some point to work out the kinks, but nobody is thinking about giving up on him yet.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 21
2-4, 1.88, 7 G, 7 GS, 28 IP, 21 H, 13 R, 6 ER, 22 BB, 21 K, 0 HR, 16.9% KBF
Okay, the ERA looks good, but that’s because Vince has suffered from remarkably poor defence in his 7 starts: he’s given up 13 runs, only 6 of them earned. Looking at the secondary numbers reveals the real story: his command is simply not there. Walking 22 hitters in 28 innings not only gets you in trouble on the bases, but it also gets your defence resting back on its heels, and could be a contributing factor to the high number of unearned runs. Also, note the remarkably small innings-per-start average: all those BBs and Ks are driving up his pitch counts and forcing him out of games early. Strike-zone command is job #1, 2 and 3 for Vince.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 24
1-0, 0.71, 1 save, 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K, 1 HR, 29.5% KBF
Peterson was worked pretty hard in college, and as a result the Jays are proceeding very carefully with him. So far, the results have been amazing. Notice that he’s not being used as a closer: he’s finished only 3 of 9 games in Dunedin, and finished only 6 of 10 games (1 save) at Charleston before his promotion; he’s not being groomed to close. Here’s someone else I’d like to see get a crack at the rotation, especially at his age, but with his overwork history, it’s likely the Blue Jays will leave him in the bullpen all year, perhaps stretching him out to 2- or 3-inning stints as the season goes on. Not a name to forget.
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 23
5-4, 2.28, 15 G, 15 GS, 83 IP, 59 H, 35 BB, 61 K, 5 HR, 17.9% KBF
Big Bad Chad’s first 80-odd innings at Dunedin look remarkably similar to his first 80-odd innings last year at Charleston: 74 IP, 48 H, 32 BB, 70 K. Unusually few hits, alarmingly many walks, just enough Ks to keep people honest. Pleiness is a big man with a small man’s repertoire: 90 mph fastball, good slider, decent change, and that elusive “pitchability” again: hitters just have a really hard time getting wood on the ball. Hey, whatever works – but he’ll need to start striking some more guys out if he wants to move up fast.
Mike Snyder, 1B, 22
294 AB, 34 R, .269/.325/.371, 15 2B, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 24 BB, 58 K, 3 SB, 0 CS
The Jays have so few hitting prospects at Dunedin that you simply have to include on this list the team leader in home runs (5), especially when he has more ribbies than the next two guys combined. Snyder won an organizational award last year for his batting line at Charleston (.286/.378/.424, a 76/107 BB/K ratio), but he’s having trouble duplicating that this year. Still, he’s improved since an early-season slump, the power is undeniably coming along, and he does know the strike zone pretty well. He’s worth watching.
Charleston Alley-Cats (Low-A)
Rodney Medina, OF, 21
242 AB, 35 R, .252/.314/.409, 11 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 21 BB, 30 K
Charleston’s best power guy is putting on quite an extra-base show in the pitcher-friendly Sally, but it’s his second trip around this circuit. Similar numbers at Dunedin would get me a little more excited, but he’s still quite young and he has very few strikeouts for that many XBHs. Continue to monitor.
Miguel Negron, OF, 20
109 AB, 13 R, .303/.330/.422, 8 2B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB, 16 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
Alexis Rios circa 2002. Seriously. At Dunedin last year, Rios hit .305/.344/.408, with a 27/55 BB/K rate; it was his first useful season with the bat. In 2003, he listened to what the Jays were telling him about strike-zone judgment, learned it, and exploded at New Haven. Negron, the Jays’ first-round pick in 2000, is a very different animal from the man picked first in ‘99: at 6’1”, 162 lbs, no one’s going to mistake Negron for the towering Rios. But no one’s ever doubted Miguel’s physical tools, just the ability to convert them into on-field results. If he learns what Alexis learned – and with 2 walks in 109 ABs, he has a lot to learn -- this could get interesting.
Justin Owens, 1B, 23
231 AB, 25 R, .242/.365/.320, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 44 BB, 71 K, 4 SB, 3 CS
See Shawn Fagan.
Sandy Nin, RHP, 22
4-4, 2.65, 14 G, 14 GS, 78 IP, 74 H, 13 BB, 60 K, 1 HR, 19.2% KBF
No one talks much about him, but Nin just keeps plugging away, displaying tremendous command of the strike zone and keeping runners off base. He slowed down slightly in June, but not enough to be a source of concern. I’d love to see what he could do at Dunedin, and we may get the chance before the year is out.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 22
3-3, 2.81, 14 G, 12 GS, 64 IP, 51 H, 18 BB, 36 K, 4 HR, 13.8% KBF
The curtain may be coming down on this particular show: Ramirez has relied on a low H/IP total to keep him out of trouble so far. But the hitters are figuring him out, the KBF is dropping, and he needs to adjust fast before the next flock of young hurlers arrives in town.
John Wesley, RHP, 22
1-1, 1.54, 2 G, 2 GS, 11 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR
Nice start in Low-A Ball for another big pitcher. Used in relief in his professional debut at Medicine Hat last year, John is being converted to the rotation two levels higher at Charleston, and is hanging in okay. Let’s see how things look after another month. With 6’6”, 230-lb Wesley and 6’6”, 240-lb Pleiness, I don’t think many batters will be charging the mound when the Alley-Cats are in town.
Auburn Doubledays (Short-Season A)
I’m not going to offer any commentary on these guys; it’s just too early to draw anything from their performances, and most of what needed to be said about many of them was said in the 2003 draft commentary. I’ll aim to have a little more detail in August. I will provide their stats, with this caveat: at 11-4, the Doubledays are off to the best start in the NY-Penn League, and they’ve played some pretty woeful outfits along the way. Don’t get too excited about these numbers -- 40 professional at-bats tell you virtually nothing. These numbers are just here for your perusal.
For the same reason, I don’t have anything to pass on from Pulaski; I find Rookie League stats are worth looking at when the season is over, or if something remarkable is taking shape, but otherwise there’s too much danger of being misled by the raw numbers.
Josh Banks, RHP, 20
1-0, 3.86, 3 G, 3 GS, 11 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 16 K, 0 HR
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
0-0, 3.38, 3 Saves, 7 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 16 K, 0 HR
Vito Chiaravolloti, 1B, 22
39 AB, 12 R, .359/.545/.641, 5 2B, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 13 BB, 10 K
Mike Galloway, OF, 22
44 AB, 15 R, .409/.536/.659, 2 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 10 BB, 11 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Aaron Hill, SS, 21
32 AB, 7 R, .469/.561/.625, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
Erik Kratz, C, 23
36 AB, 9 R, .306/.432/.611, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 8 BB, 9 K
AJ Porfiro, OF, 23
57 AB, 13 R, .386/.438/.561, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 6 BB, 10 K
Ryan Roberts, 3B, 22
48 AB, 14 R, .313/.431/.521, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 12 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
Marcos Sandoval, RHP, 22
2-0, 1.38, 3 G, 3 GS, 13 IP, 5 BB, 5 BB, 10 K, 0 HR
Charles Talanoa, RHP, 22
1-1, 2.92, 3 G, 3 GS, 12 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 0 HR
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 21
3-1, 2.77, 4 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 21 K, 0 HR
Syracuse Skychiefs (AAA)
Jimmy Alvarez, 2B/SS, 23
152 AB, 22 R, .250/.327/.362, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 18 BB, 40 K, 9 SB, 1 CS
Last season at Tennessee, Alvarez walked 79 times in 497 AB; this year, he’s on pace for 58 free passes in that many at-bats. His OBP is also down 55 points from last season. The younger Jorge Sequea has come up beside Jimmy in the passing lane and might yet pull away. The level jump from AA is a tough adjustment, though, and Alvarez has spent some time on the DL this year, so it’s too soon to draw conclusions. He can still be a useful utility guy.
Jason Arnold, RHP, 24
3-3, 4.03, 10 G, 10 GS, 58 IP, 61 H, 21 BB, 44 K, 6 HR, 17.5% KBF
Word out of Skydome is that Arnold will play out the season in Syracuse before likely getting a September call to Toronto. That’s just as well, because he’s certainly not dominating the International League yet. His command did improve in June, after he adjusted to the new league: just 11 walks in his last 37 innings after walking 10 in his first 21. But his strikeout numbers have slowed somewhat. My prediction of a June 2004 arrival-for-good still stands.
Brian Bowles, RHP, 26
0-2, 0.98, 11 saves, 24 G, 0 GS, 27 IP, 20 H, 15 BB, 21 K, 0 HR, 17.5% KBF
Just providing an update on the guy who’s leading the Skychiefs in saves, and a reminder that he offers no real help to a beleaguered Jays bullpen.
Kevin Cash, C, 25
211 AB, 18 R, .256/.306/.384, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 15 BB, 48 K
He’s slowly coming around, but probably too slowly to make a real difference in ’03. His OPS is up 54 points since May 31, and he’s starting to regain his pitch recognition skills from last year. The long-ball power cord is still disconnected, though: after 236 AAA at-bats last year, Cash had 10 round-trippers. It’s a little disturbing that he’s posting a line remarkably similar to Jimmy Alvarez’s. It’ll be summer 2004 before his bat is ready for Toronto; depending on what the Jays do with Wilson and Myers, his glove may get him into a Blue Jays uniform before then.
Simon Pond, 3B, 26
44 AB, 9 R, .364/.404/.682, 5 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 6 K
The hits just keep on coming for Pond, who’s been slowed only by a brief DL trip since his promotion to Syracuse; with Tony Zuniga also disabled for the moment, he’s getting steady play and making the best of it. Don’t get too excited about the power: those three homers all came in the same game. But it seems clear that the organization is going to keep promoting Simon until he can’t handle the opposing pitching, and that hasn’t happened yet. And as for the arguments he’s too old to be a prospect, well, Kevin Cash is 25. He has an iron glove, so 1B and DH are his only positions, and they’re kind of filled in Toronto right now. Pond remains an intriguing shooting star.
Jorge Sequea, SS, 22
75 AB, 13 R, .293/.346/.413, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 9 K, 1 SB, 2 CS
Sequea came over in the off-season from the Tigers’ organization, where he posted a .267/.343/.380 line at AA Erie (41/79 BB/K rate) in 2002. He improved that to a .342/.400/.459 line at 111 New Haven ABs this season, with an 11/21 BB/K rate (granted, he was repeating the Eastern League). He’s held his own nicely since his promotion to Syracuse, and he’s only 22. The Jays may have themselves quite an interesting find here; score another one for the talent hawks in the front office.
Mike Smith, RHP, 25
4-4, 4.82, 15 G, 12 GS, 74 IP, 76 H, 37 BB, 49 K, 7 HR, 11.3% KBF
Okay, I’m just about ready to admit defeat on this one. When you can strike out just a tenth of the batters you face at Triple-A, the writing’s on the wall. The only difference between Smith this year and Pasqual Coco last year was that Coco was repeating the International League (and Smith wasn’t lightening any wallets). The Jays will give him one more season to improve, I suspect, before cutting bait.
Rich Thompson, CF, 24
79 AB, 11 R, .291/.371/.329, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K, 8 SB, 0 CS
He can sure get on base, and he can sure steal bases, and that’s the extent of his offensive skills (I don’t know what Thompson’s like defensively, but if he plays center he can’t be all that bad). He’s now stolen 23 bases in 26 tries this year between AA and AAA. He’s a combined pinch-hitter/pinch-runner at best, unless bundled elsewhere in trade. I’m still rooting for him.
Corey Thurman, RHP, 24
5-2, 4.12, 12 G, 12 GS, 59 IP, 61 H, 21 BB, 52 K, 4 HR, 20.3% KBF
He got hammered in his last start on June 30, throwing off what has otherwise been a pretty attractive line for this former Rule 5er. He might best be served by getting back to Toronto now and learning from some of the best in the game – including guys named Patterson and Halladay – than by sticking around at AAA, where he might be suffering from Vernon Wells Syndrome: an inability to stay focused in the bushes after you’ve tasted success in The Show. I think he’ll perform better than this after his promotion, which should come as soon as he strings together two good starts in a row.
Jayson Werth, C/OF, 24
77 AB, 11 R, .234/.307/.416, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 9 BB, 21 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
This is not going according to plan. In order to swap Werth for pitching (either big-league for a pennant chase or minor-league for future growth), the Jays need the catcher-outfielder to demonstrate a potent bat; a 723 OPS in Triple-A (in just 77 at-bats, admittedly) won’t cut the French’s. He’s been hurt physically, and the roster yo-yoing he’s been forced to endure this season has to have hurt him mentally. But even last year at Syracuse, he hit just .257 and struck out 125 times. It might be worthwhile scaling back our collective expectations of what Werth will bring in trade, unless something really clicks for him in the second half.
New Haven Ravens (AA)
Russ Adams, SS, 22
41 AB, 4 R, .293/.383/.317, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 BB, 8 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
You look at Russ Adams and get the feeling he’s going to hit .290 with a .380 OBP wherever he plays, all the way up the majors. In his first 40 AA at-bats, he’s virtually duplicating what he did in 200 ABs at Dunedin, minus the power that will come (to a degree) in time. He still projects as a terrific leadoff hitter for the 2005 or ’06 Blue Jays. His defence has also steadied, just 2 errors in 10 games at shortstop in New Haven, and hardly any in his last few weeks at Dunedin. The Jays challenged him with the promotion to the Eastern League, and they have to be delighted with his response so far.
David Bush, RHP, 23
1-1, 3.31, 3 G, 3 GS, 16 IP, 15 H, 6 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, 24.2% KBF
After his first Double-A start, a four-inning stint, Bush was pulled from the game with tightness in his elbow, and a similar tightness briefly afflicted hearts and throats in the Jays organization. Bush’s second start was pushed back, and when it came, he got knocked around a little. But his last outing was reassuringly strong, and there’ve been no reports of flare-ups, so we can breathe a little easier. The K/IP and K/BB numbers remain very strong; in fact, David’s numbers in limited AA action very closely resemble those of his teammate Dustin McGowan, below. Bush is coming along very well, but there’ll be a little red flag over his elbow for the next few starts yet.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 24
3-0, 0.00, 5 G, 0 GS, 5 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 HR
With Juan Pena (below) taking over the closer duties for the Ravens, DeJong has moved into a de facto setup role, one that allowed him to vulture three wins in his first five appearances. He’s throwing fine these days, lots of strikeouts but too many walks, just as at Dunedin.
I’ll say at this point, though, that I don’t like the idea of DeJong getting locked into the bullpen. I can understand putting a prospect into a relief role to protect his arm or break him into a new level; Dave Bush started out that way last year. But DeJong has been relieving since his arrival in the organization last summer, and he seems to have too wide a repertoire to be plugged into the old Cliff Pollitte 8th-inning role. He’s a four-pitch guy without one overwhelming pitch in his arsenal; it seems to me that would be far better suited for a starting position. DeJong, like Bush, was a starter in college; why not try him there again? This may be the organization’s long-term plan, and they’re simply giving DeJong some low-pressure innings to get used to the Eastern League. That’s fine, but I sure would like to see him tried out in the rotation soon.
Shawn Fagan, 1B, 25
181 AB, 33 R, .287/.393/.376, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 31 BB, 42 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
Rafael Ramirez once said: “You cannot walk off the Island.” Note to Shawn Fagan: You cannot walk out of Double-A either. Eventually, you need to add power, especially at first base.
Dave Gassner, LHP, 24
5-2, 3.35, 20 G, 11 GS, 80 IP, 80 H, 20 BB, 50 K, 7 HR, 15.0% KBF
Humour me, okay? Gas has been tried out in the bullpen recently; that will be an interesting experiment to monitor.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 24
269 AB, 35 R, .260/.340/.450, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 34 BB, 64 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
I’m liking everything here -- the power, the patience -- except the lack of contact. Almost one in every four at-bats ends in a strikeout for Griffin. I recognize that the K comes with the HR, but if Griffin is having trouble with the whiff against Eastern League pitching, the American League will eat him alive. The batting average has to get into the high 2s or low 3s before Griffin can be considered a true hitting prospect. Considering he hit just .267 in A-Ball last year, this might seem like a tough assignment. But John-Ford is making strides; before this year, he had a total of 13 home runs in three professional seasons. And he was a .400 hitter in college. He’s going to take a little longer, that’s all, than will his New Haven roommate…
Gabe Gross, RF, 24
275 AB, 43 R, .309/.418/.455, 19 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 48 BB, 47 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
The Package is coming together nicely. A .300 average, more walks than strikeouts, developing power: half of those 19 doubles should be flying out of the park in a year or two. I sure would like to find a report on Gross’s defence -- my impression is that he has good range and a strong arm, but that’s not the most comprehensive scouting report ever. Otherwise, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be a Skychief within the next month or two.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 21
1-0, 5.84, 3 G, 3 GS, 12 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, 30.3% KBF
Don’t be alarmed by the ERA -- McGowan has had two great starts and one horrible one at AA, inflating his IP/H numbers as well. Focus instead on the K/IP and K/BB numbers -- very impressive, though in an admittedly teeny sample size. So far, Dustin has shown a remarkable ability to elevate his game to the level to which he’s been promoted: his numbers seem to improve at every stop along the minor-league way. He has many learning curves ahead of him yet, of course, and the Jays will not rush him: he’s only 21 and he should get a full year at Double-A. But he’s getting closer to Toronto all the time.
Juan Pena, RHP, 26
0-0, 2.45, 5 Saves, 7 G, 0 GS, 7 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 1 HR
Look what we found on the free-agent wire, Ma. Some of you might remember Pena from his brief ’99 sojourn as a 22-year-old with the Red Sox (2-0, 0.69, 13 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 15 K), which included a shutout of the Blue Jays. Pena came down with tendonitis that season, but had recovered by the following spring when a freak accident changed his career.
In his final spring 2000 start against the Reds, Pena threw a pitch that Sean Casey lined back off the base of Pena’s wrist. Bizarrely, the impact of the line drive tore the medial collateral ligament in the pitcher’s right elbow, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. On his return, the Red Sox tried to reinstall him as a starter, but he couldn’t manage it and they eventually cut him. The Blue Jays swooped in, signed him, and sent him directly to the AA bullpen, where he’s been performing very well.
Despite his gaudy K numbers, Pena’s not a power guy: he throws a live fastball in the upper 80s (if that, post-surgery), plus a curveball and changeup; his trademark on the mound was command, intelligence and pitchability. I’m not a radar-gun slave, but I’m still skeptical that a young right-hander who can’t approach 90 will succeed in the bigs. Pena could be a short-term relief option, maybe even this season if he continues to pitch well, but I wouldn’t consider him blue-chip.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 21
212 AB, 39 R, .283/.378/.533, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 29 BB, 50 K
On the one hand, Quiroz’s bat has cooled off dramatically: his BA has plummeted and his OPS has dropped from 968 a month ago to 911 today. On the other hand, Quiroz’s batting eye has been amazing: 16 walks in June after just 13 in April and May combined. That stat, more than anything else, tells me that GQ is for real at the plate. He’s had hot starts and cold finishes before – most of his 2002 batting success occurred in April of that year -- but Quiroz is proving that even if he’s not making contact, he can contribute at the plate. With his throwing arm as sound as ever, Guillermo has to be considered as the new front-runner for the job of Future Toronto Catcher. Still, keep an eye on that BA….
Dominic Rich, 2B, 24
195 AB, 22 R, .231/.306/.282, 0 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB, 24 K
Something ain’t right here. A solid .300 hitter throughout his college career at Auburn, Rich hit .345 for Dunedin last year before batting .273 in a late-season promo to Tennessee: his combined BB/K ratio was 75/72. So what exactly is going on in Dominic’s second trip around AA? He suffered a groin injury earlier this season that was supposed to have healed, but maybe it’s still bothering him. If he was simply scuffling along at .255, I might think he had just reached his ceiling much earlier than expected, but this degree of futility suggests either a hidden injury or a slump of Grossian proportions. Gabe came out of it, so Rich can as well.
Alexis Rios, CF, 22
280 AB, 45 R, .354/.412/.514, 18 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 40 RBI, 24 BB, 50 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
Like his Futures Game teammate Quiroz, Rios also has started returning to earth this month: his BA is down 24 points since May 30, his OPS down 83 points. He also added 20 strikeouts in June against just 7 walks. No surprise or shame in that; he was flying very high. But his power has remained fairly steady, especially in the doubles and triples categories, and he’s avoided protracted slumps. I don’t think his numbers have finished bottoming out, but I also don’t think there’s much farther to go. My guess is he’ll finish this year in New Haven and start next year at Syracuse, but if he maintains a 900+ OPS through July, the call may come sooner than that.
Dunedin Blue Jays (High-A)
Tyrell Godwin, CF, 24
251 AB, 33 R, .255/.325/.295, 0 HR, 27 RBI, 22 BB, 33 K, 11 SB, 5 CS
Runs are hard enough to come by in the Florida State League, but with the trade of Jason Perry and the promotion of Russ Adams, the D-Jays are particularly short on offence these days, such that Godwin is one of their premier offensive threats. He’s finally staying healthy, but he’s not putting up the kind of numbers he needs to break out of A-Ball, which he really needs to do at his age. If he hovers around a 600 OPS all year, his future with the organization may be in doubt.
Jesse Harper, RHP, 22
7-3, 2.72, 16 G, 14 GS, 79 IP, 68 H, 18 BB, 57 K, 3 HR, 17.5% KBF
Jesse remains a borderline pitching prospect, but he’s really improved his numbers over the last month. His ERA dropped slightly, his KBF rose 2.5% points, and he gave up fewer hits -- but the really impressive stat is his 20/2 K/BB ratio in June. If he keeps that up, he’s going to get himself added to a few need-to-watch lists.
Brandon League, RHP, 20
0-1, 5.87, 2 G, 1 GS, 7 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 4 K, 0 HR
Limited action for the Jays’ high-school phenom has produced unimpressive numbers so far, but you can tell even less from two appearances than you can from three. Remember, League is just 20 years old; expect his career path to resemble Dustin McGowan’s somewhat.
Justin Maureau, LHP, 22
1-3, 6.67, 17 G, 3 GS, 27 IP, 32 H, 19 BB, 21 K, 0 HR, 15.3% KBF
Poor Justin. Starting or relieving, it’s just not clicking for him so far this year. In fairness, Maureau’s early-career struggles are more typical of professional rookies, even those drawn from the college ranks, as teams like the Jays tend to favour – we’ve been rather spoiled with the fast starts displayed by much of the 2002 draft class. Justin might need a trip down to Charleston at some point to work out the kinks, but nobody is thinking about giving up on him yet.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 21
2-4, 1.88, 7 G, 7 GS, 28 IP, 21 H, 13 R, 6 ER, 22 BB, 21 K, 0 HR, 16.9% KBF
Okay, the ERA looks good, but that’s because Vince has suffered from remarkably poor defence in his 7 starts: he’s given up 13 runs, only 6 of them earned. Looking at the secondary numbers reveals the real story: his command is simply not there. Walking 22 hitters in 28 innings not only gets you in trouble on the bases, but it also gets your defence resting back on its heels, and could be a contributing factor to the high number of unearned runs. Also, note the remarkably small innings-per-start average: all those BBs and Ks are driving up his pitch counts and forcing him out of games early. Strike-zone command is job #1, 2 and 3 for Vince.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 24
1-0, 0.71, 1 save, 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K, 1 HR, 29.5% KBF
Peterson was worked pretty hard in college, and as a result the Jays are proceeding very carefully with him. So far, the results have been amazing. Notice that he’s not being used as a closer: he’s finished only 3 of 9 games in Dunedin, and finished only 6 of 10 games (1 save) at Charleston before his promotion; he’s not being groomed to close. Here’s someone else I’d like to see get a crack at the rotation, especially at his age, but with his overwork history, it’s likely the Blue Jays will leave him in the bullpen all year, perhaps stretching him out to 2- or 3-inning stints as the season goes on. Not a name to forget.
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 23
5-4, 2.28, 15 G, 15 GS, 83 IP, 59 H, 35 BB, 61 K, 5 HR, 17.9% KBF
Big Bad Chad’s first 80-odd innings at Dunedin look remarkably similar to his first 80-odd innings last year at Charleston: 74 IP, 48 H, 32 BB, 70 K. Unusually few hits, alarmingly many walks, just enough Ks to keep people honest. Pleiness is a big man with a small man’s repertoire: 90 mph fastball, good slider, decent change, and that elusive “pitchability” again: hitters just have a really hard time getting wood on the ball. Hey, whatever works – but he’ll need to start striking some more guys out if he wants to move up fast.
Mike Snyder, 1B, 22
294 AB, 34 R, .269/.325/.371, 15 2B, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 24 BB, 58 K, 3 SB, 0 CS
The Jays have so few hitting prospects at Dunedin that you simply have to include on this list the team leader in home runs (5), especially when he has more ribbies than the next two guys combined. Snyder won an organizational award last year for his batting line at Charleston (.286/.378/.424, a 76/107 BB/K ratio), but he’s having trouble duplicating that this year. Still, he’s improved since an early-season slump, the power is undeniably coming along, and he does know the strike zone pretty well. He’s worth watching.
Charleston Alley-Cats (Low-A)
Rodney Medina, OF, 21
242 AB, 35 R, .252/.314/.409, 11 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 21 BB, 30 K
Charleston’s best power guy is putting on quite an extra-base show in the pitcher-friendly Sally, but it’s his second trip around this circuit. Similar numbers at Dunedin would get me a little more excited, but he’s still quite young and he has very few strikeouts for that many XBHs. Continue to monitor.
Miguel Negron, OF, 20
109 AB, 13 R, .303/.330/.422, 8 2B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB, 16 K, 6 SB, 2 CS
Alexis Rios circa 2002. Seriously. At Dunedin last year, Rios hit .305/.344/.408, with a 27/55 BB/K rate; it was his first useful season with the bat. In 2003, he listened to what the Jays were telling him about strike-zone judgment, learned it, and exploded at New Haven. Negron, the Jays’ first-round pick in 2000, is a very different animal from the man picked first in ‘99: at 6’1”, 162 lbs, no one’s going to mistake Negron for the towering Rios. But no one’s ever doubted Miguel’s physical tools, just the ability to convert them into on-field results. If he learns what Alexis learned – and with 2 walks in 109 ABs, he has a lot to learn -- this could get interesting.
Justin Owens, 1B, 23
231 AB, 25 R, .242/.365/.320, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 44 BB, 71 K, 4 SB, 3 CS
See Shawn Fagan.
Sandy Nin, RHP, 22
4-4, 2.65, 14 G, 14 GS, 78 IP, 74 H, 13 BB, 60 K, 1 HR, 19.2% KBF
No one talks much about him, but Nin just keeps plugging away, displaying tremendous command of the strike zone and keeping runners off base. He slowed down slightly in June, but not enough to be a source of concern. I’d love to see what he could do at Dunedin, and we may get the chance before the year is out.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 22
3-3, 2.81, 14 G, 12 GS, 64 IP, 51 H, 18 BB, 36 K, 4 HR, 13.8% KBF
The curtain may be coming down on this particular show: Ramirez has relied on a low H/IP total to keep him out of trouble so far. But the hitters are figuring him out, the KBF is dropping, and he needs to adjust fast before the next flock of young hurlers arrives in town.
John Wesley, RHP, 22
1-1, 1.54, 2 G, 2 GS, 11 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR
Nice start in Low-A Ball for another big pitcher. Used in relief in his professional debut at Medicine Hat last year, John is being converted to the rotation two levels higher at Charleston, and is hanging in okay. Let’s see how things look after another month. With 6’6”, 230-lb Wesley and 6’6”, 240-lb Pleiness, I don’t think many batters will be charging the mound when the Alley-Cats are in town.
Auburn Doubledays (Short-Season A)
I’m not going to offer any commentary on these guys; it’s just too early to draw anything from their performances, and most of what needed to be said about many of them was said in the 2003 draft commentary. I’ll aim to have a little more detail in August. I will provide their stats, with this caveat: at 11-4, the Doubledays are off to the best start in the NY-Penn League, and they’ve played some pretty woeful outfits along the way. Don’t get too excited about these numbers -- 40 professional at-bats tell you virtually nothing. These numbers are just here for your perusal.
For the same reason, I don’t have anything to pass on from Pulaski; I find Rookie League stats are worth looking at when the season is over, or if something remarkable is taking shape, but otherwise there’s too much danger of being misled by the raw numbers.
Josh Banks, RHP, 20
1-0, 3.86, 3 G, 3 GS, 11 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 16 K, 0 HR
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
0-0, 3.38, 3 Saves, 7 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 16 K, 0 HR
Vito Chiaravolloti, 1B, 22
39 AB, 12 R, .359/.545/.641, 5 2B, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 13 BB, 10 K
Mike Galloway, OF, 22
44 AB, 15 R, .409/.536/.659, 2 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 10 BB, 11 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Aaron Hill, SS, 21
32 AB, 7 R, .469/.561/.625, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
Erik Kratz, C, 23
36 AB, 9 R, .306/.432/.611, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 8 BB, 9 K
AJ Porfiro, OF, 23
57 AB, 13 R, .386/.438/.561, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 6 BB, 10 K
Ryan Roberts, 3B, 22
48 AB, 14 R, .313/.431/.521, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 12 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
Marcos Sandoval, RHP, 22
2-0, 1.38, 3 G, 3 GS, 13 IP, 5 BB, 5 BB, 10 K, 0 HR
Charles Talanoa, RHP, 22
1-1, 2.92, 3 G, 3 GS, 12 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 0 HR
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 21
3-1, 2.77, 4 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 21 K, 0 HR
