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Here's an interesting "pinch hit" from one of our regular readers. Gerry takes a lighthearted look at some of the first-half numbers.


Stats, Stats and more Stats

by Gerry McDonald

Some notes from the Jays statistics at ESPN.COM, at the halfway point. Many of these stats will not be surprising to the ZLC, but the degree to which the Jays vary from other teams, in some categories, was surprising to me.


Team Pitching and Defense

Jays team ERA, at 4.82, ranks 9th in the AL.

The Jays have conceded more runs (434) than every team except Tampa Bay (441) and Texas (516). Can A-Rod pitch?

How are the Jays 9th in ERA but 12th in runs allowed? The Jays have given up 47 unearned runs, the most in the AL. Other generous teams are Tampa Bay (40 unearned runs) and Detroit (43).

The Jays have made 65 errors. Cleveland and Detroit are the worst at 67. The Jays might be unlucky in that many of their errors turn into runs.

Offsetting this is the Jays' Zone Rating, which is tied for fifth in the league. So the Jays' fielders do get to a lot of balls, they just make more errors when they get there.

The Jays have allowed 100 opposition HR's. Only Texas is worse.

The Jays have a 1.37 ground ball/fly ball ratio, the most extreme to ground balls in the AL. Four other teams are in the 1.30's. Therefore infield defense is more important to the Jays than for other teams.

Seattle is the most extreme Fly Ball team at 0.97. Anaheim is close at 0.98.

Toronto and Texas have issued 28 IBB's. Next on the list are Oakland and Tampa Bay at 20. Tosca playing the percentages? Or running scared?

Toronto pitchers have not committed a balk yet this year (Boston and Yankees are also at zero). This comment ensures a balk call this week.

Jays have allowed the most stolen bases in the AL this year (65). The Jays have the worst caught stealing ratio at .22. Seattle (.42) and Cleveland (.40) are the best. Incidently, Josh Bard's reward is a trip to AAA so Victor Martinez can get his major league shot.


Team Offense

Jays OBP at .360 is second to Boston (.366)

Jays SLG at .489 is second to Boston (.498)

Detroit's OBP and SLG are .288 and .342 respectively.

Jays batters have 545 strikeouts, the most in the league. Not the sabermetric way? JP would not be happy with this.

Jays are second in runs scored, but look at the range...

Boston 511
Toronto 503
Yankees 452
Seattle 405

The three AL East teams are in their own class. Toronto and Boston are 25% ahead of all others, except the Yankees.

Jays have 12 stolen bases. Oakland is next with 19. Third lowest are the White Sox and Rangers with 31 each. This supports the Jays red light system, as discussed on Batter's Box earlier this year.

Jays have been caught 14 times. They are the only team with a negative differential. The next lowest differential is Oakland at 19-7, for a +12 difference.

Jays have only 4 sacrifice hits. The next lowest are the Yankees at 10. This is extreme avoidance of the sacrifice. Are the Jays trying to go one better than Oakland?

Jays have been HPB 45 times, well ahead of KC and Texas at 36.

The leaders in intentional base on balls received are Boston with 34, the Yankees with 31, and Oakland with 29. The Jays are middle of the pack with 19. This suggests the Jays hitters don't have the respect of the league yet.


Individual

Roy Halladay has given up 17 HR's. Tied for second at 11 are three pitchers. Know who? Answers are below.

More walks than K's? - Creek and Davis

K/9 IP greater than 9? Escobar 9.67 and Lopez 9.06

Who is the most extreme ground ball pitcher on the Jays staff? If you guess Jeff Tam you are second with a ratio of 1.64. The leader's ratio is 1.85. Answer below.

The Jays most extreme flyball pitcher has a ratio of only 0.54. Sturtze, Lopez and Davis are in the 0.90's. Know who? Answer below.

Jays errors leaders? Woodward (15), Hudson (9), Hinske (7), Delgado (6)

Catchers ERA (non judgemental) Myers 4.12; Wilson 5.80, offset by errors, Myers (6) Wilson (1)

Catcher SB % - Myers 30% ; Wilson 17%

More walks than K's as a hitter - Stewart 24/23

Not Blue Jay material? (BB/K <.33) Phelps 22:70; Werth 1:18; Wilson 16:49

Lowest OPS with > 100 AB's - Hinske .689; Bordick .697

SB leader - O-Dog with 4 (caught 2). Worst - Johnson 0 for 3


Answers:

11 HR's - Hendrickson, Sturtze and Politte

Most extreme GB pitcher is Halladay. It is a little odd that Doc has given up the most HR's. I guess he needs to keep the ball down. What would his ERA be if he played with a slow grass infield? Skydome probably hurts him. I did not have a chance to run his ERA on grass fields for the last year. Anyone?

The flyball pitcher is Politte. If Cliff comes into the game, Tosca better have his best outfield out there.

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robertdudek - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#98742) #
The flyball pitcher is Politte. If Cliff comes into the game, Tosca better have his best outfield out there.

Tosca had better put 2 of his outfielders beyond the outfield wall.

It should be Catcher CS% - that is Myers has thrown out 30% of runners and Wilson has thrown out 17%.

I don't think strikeout to walk ratios are all that important at this level. Both Wilson and Phelps are getting on base a lot. Guys who strike out a lot don't really tend to have low OBPs. A lot of strikeouts usually means fewer double plays: the Jays have not GIDPéd excessively even though they've had tons of runners on base.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#98743) #
Nice work Gerry.

I concur with Robert WRT K/BB ratios. I think Ricciardi is much more interested in AB/BB ratios. I doubt strikeouts overly concern him (when considered in isolation).

What would his ERA be if he played with a slow grass infield?

Better to ask the question, what would Halladay's ERA have been if he hadn't hung so many curves?

Not Blue Jay material? (BB/K <.33) Phelps 22:70; Werth 1:18; Wilson 16:49

Actually, I think Wilson is the very embodiment of Blue Jay material.
* 881 OPS at a position where 700 is more the norm
* price tag right around $300K
* weak throwing arm considered relatively inconsequential in a take-and-rake world
_Jonny German - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#98744) #
Halladay's split for 2003:

Turf: 3.61 ERA in 72.1 innings, WHIP 1.22, BAA .256
Grass: 3.81 ERA in 56.2 innings, WHIP 1.17, BAA .269

In this small sample, he looks to be very close to equally good on grass or turf. He's been decidedly better on the road than at home, and I think the key factor is not the turf - it's that his home run rate is much worse in the SkyDome (10 in 57.1 IP compared to 7 in 71.2 IP).
Pistol - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#98745) #
The Jays have allowed 100 opposition HR's. Only Texas is worse.

The Jays have a 1.37 ground ball/fly ball ratio, the most extreme to ground balls in the AL. Four other teams are in the 1.30's. Therefore infield defense is more important to the Jays than for other teams.


I find this interesting. The Jays have the highest ratio of ground balls, yet they've still given up the most home runs.

I suspect that mainstream analysts overstate batters striking out being a problem and statheads understate the problems with batters who strike out a lot. There was blurp in Moneyball that started to discuss that, but it quickly went somewhere else leaving you hanging.
_A - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#98746) #
The only luck that figures into the Blue Jays unearned run total is the luck of Detroit and Cleveland...When you make THAT many errors as a team you should expect totals like 47 unearned runs.

I`ll give 2:1 odds to anyone who wants to bet against me on the proposition that Hinkse leaves July with 10+ errors (season total, he`s currently at 6).
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#98747) #
Is there anything like "clutch errors"?
Is there data for pitches per at bat for hitters and pitches per out for pitchers? it should be relevant for the sort of strategy the team has.
_Donkit R.K. - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#98748) #
How do y'all think Hinske is gonna play down the strecth. I think he'll revert to his early defense from last year and fill up the scoresheet with E-5's but what about hitting? Think he can find some of his power and get his average up to, even, the .260 range?
_jason - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#98749) #
I think his D will be fine. He's just rusty right now. Butterfield is a great infield coach, he'll make sure Hinske gets back to where he was. As for his hitting, yeah, maybe he can get his average up to the .260-.270 range. He seems to be getting his power back.
_Craig S. - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#98750) #
Jabonoso - There are stats kept for pitches/plate appearance for both pitchers and batters. You can find them as part of the ESPN expanded stats package:

Batters

Pitchers

Halladay and Lidle are both top 10 in fewest pitches made per PA, with Delgado the highest-ranked better around 20th spot.
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#98751) #
Thanks for the link Craig S, I tougth hitters were doing better than that, reading Tosca's comments. Yanks are far better in this respect.
_Craig S. - Tuesday, July 01 2003 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#98752) #
I was surprised, too. My impression from watching the games is that they'd been very good in this area.
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