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As most fans of the game will know, there are 108 stitches in a baseball. Unless, of course, it's a crappy Chinese-made baseball like the one I just bought, which has 97 for some reason.


OK, yes, I'm betting the reason is cheapness.

Anyway, that feeling... that you're not quite getting everything you bargained for... is probably affecting the front office of Edgardo Alfonzo's new team, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants signed Alfonzo to a four-year deal worth $26 million in the offseason, and many people (including myself) thought they got a good deal, inking a star player in what is still his prime (he's 29 this year). Instead, Alfonzo is hitting .219/.295/.325, and is struggling defensively (his .739 Zone Rating is near the bottom of MLB third basemen).

Where are his struggles coming from? Everywhere; he is struggling against righties and lefties, at home and on the road, leading off, close and late, hitting second or down in the order, when he hits the first pitch and on 3-2 counts, against groundball pitchers and flyball pitchers, during the day and at night. And it's not getting any better... he's hitting .197/.244/.250 in June. But nothing can illustrate his problems so poignantly as the fact that the local media are agitating for Pedro Feliz to play more at third base. Ouch.

Barry Bonds stole his 500th base, of course, and there was much rejoicing. Some of the names trailing Barry on the all-time stolen bases chart are amazing... Ron LeFlore, Billy North, Willie Davis, Tris Speaker, Omar Moreno... serious basestealers all. Much has also been made of Barry being second in active players in stolen bases (though a potential Rickey return might bump him down to 3rd soon). Interestingly, Barry is *not* the active leader in career slugging percentage, though he has a .596 career mark trails only five retired players... Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Foxx and Greenberg. Barry's actually tied with Manny Ramirez for second among active players behind Todd Helton.

Helton, incidentally, is in a dogfight for an All-Star starting berth with Jeff Bagwell. The two of them are separated by something like 200 votes, with over 379,000 each so far.

A recent piece in the Long Island paper Newsday caught my eye...


Former Mets manager Jeff Torborg, fired by the Florida Marlins last month, worked last night's
game for ESPN. He said George Steinbrenner called him the day after he was fired and offered him a job
in the Yankees' organization. "It was very flattering," said Torborg, who spent nearly 10 years as a
Yankees coach. "At the present time, I'd like to sit and take some time off, do some broadcasting."
With tensions rising between Joe Torre and Steinbrenner, there has been speculation that Torborg
could replace a fired Torre. Torborg begs to differ. "My managing days are over," he insisted.


SO close. Hopefully The Boss will track down Torborg soon and get him to reconsider... as the Good Doctor would put it, that would just about make the nut.

An entry now from the Persistence of Memory Department. Remember how at the start of the month I mentioned that Tim Spooneybarger was complaining of being overused in relief by the Marlins? Well, he had to shut down a side session on Tuesday due to pain (unspecified) and was going to see an orthopedist yesterday.

I guess the "friend" of Juan Gonzalez who told Jayson Stark last week that Gonzalez would "waive his no-trade for Omar [Minaya]. He loves Omar" wasn't as close a friend as one might have had reason to expect. Now since a Gonzalez deal would get in the way of freeing Terrmel Sledge (oh yeah... FREE TERRMEL SLEDGE!) you'd think I'd be against it, but I'm always happy to see Montreal reach out to their fans and try to make a popular signing. And speaking as a recovering Expos fan, those who criticize Minaya's approach as mortgaging the future of the franchise for a desperate roll of the dice are certainly correct. But to an Expos fan, knowing that the team is likely to be broken up for scrap in another far-off city in the near future (if not in 2004) means it doesn't matter what you do to the future of the franchise.

Mike Sweeney's neck hurts (beware! beware!) and my brain hurts, so that's it for Notes.
Notes : Feeling Shortchanged | 45 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#99103) #
For you DIPS believers out there I found this to be interesting:

Halladay's ERA - 3.57
Lidle's ERA - 5.12

Halladay's DIPS ERA - 3.74
Lidle's DIPS ERA - 3.75

The DIPS ERA used here is the 'quick and dirty' calculation, and doesn't include park factors.
_Mr. Burns - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#99104) #
http://www.tammiefritsch.com/cels/burns.html
Unless, of course, it's a crappy Chinese-made baseball like the one I just bought, which has 97 for some reason.

Back in my day slave child labor took pride in their work!

MB
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#99105) #
Lidle's DIPS ERA - 3.75

I am guessing that most self-respecting members of the ZLC don't believe in clutch hitting as a true skill (attributing good or bad clutch hitting to chance). I am certainly one of them.

But what about clutch pitching, or unclutch pitching, as the case may be? Is Lidle's 1.5 run discrepancy between DIPS ERA and real ERA entirely due to chance? Is there a "skill" element at play here whereby something he is doing is causing him to pitch more poorly in higher leverage situations?

I'm not saying that I have any idea, but I know several have suggested that there is some kernel of truth to Lidle being at least a part of the cause of his own inflated ERA (meltdown with men on base?).

Lidle is certainly the anti-Delgado this year. Lidle is ridiculously non-clutch. Delgado is ridiculously clutch.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#99106) #
Barry's actually tied with Manny Ramirez for second among active players behind Todd Helton.

ASTERISK!!!!!
_Mick - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#99107) #
Edgardo Alfonso ...

Power-hitting Venezuelan 2B with a below-average glove, a little over-hyped in a big city who leaves the organization for which he became an All-Star, and just a few years after a nice .310/25/100 type year, completely falls apart.

Wait, wait ... rewind ... replay ...

Power-hitting Dominican 2B with a below-average glove, a little over-hyped in a baseball-crazy city who leaves the organization for which he became an All-Star, and just a few years after a nice .310/25/100 type year, completely falls apart.

... Carlos Baerga.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#99108) #
Mick, I respectfully disagree with your implied Alfonzo/Baerga comp.

Alfonzo had a reputation as a very good defender, most notably pre-injury at second base. Baerga was never considered more than an average defender.

Offensively, Alfonzo has always been able to take a walk, resulting in decent OBP's. Baerga was always a hacker. I would argue that they fit into very different profiles as hitters.

Alfonzo's career: 3900 AB, 292/367/445
Baerga's career: 5000 AB, 291/330/425

Baerga's last useful season was at age 26. Alfonzo posted an 850 OPS last year at age 28.

I can't recall an injury being used to explain Baerga's decline. In Alfonzo's case, perhaps his back problems are behind his poor play this season (I haven't heard it offered up as an excuse, but truthfully I haven't paid that close attention).
_DS - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#99109) #
Cleveland is a baseball-crazy city?
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#99110) #
http://economics.about.com
Alfonzo's age 28 comp list:

Carlos Baerga (942)
Travis Fryman (930)
Marty McManus (922)
Carney Lansford (918)
Ryne Sandberg (916)
Red Kress (914)
Richie Hebner (913)
Ken Keltner (911)
Gregg Jefferies (907)
Bobby Doerr (904) *

Mike
_Brent - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#99111) #
Although I didn't see that game, I happened to catch the highlights, and it seemed to me that Lidle had some extremely bad luck in last night's game. The Score showed 4-5 plays where a ground ball just sneaked by Woodward in the SS-3B hole. If Woodward were to be positioned 3 feet to his left, he could have had a shot at those balls, or at least he would have kept them in the infield. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the exact case in which DIPS corrects for? Through no fault of his own, Lidle gave up a few hits.

Perhaps we should get Voros over here.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#99112) #
Carlos Baerga (942)

Ouch. I don't see it, but the numbers are right there.
Craig B - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#99113) #
ASTERISK!!!!!

Helton's SLG is probably helped about 40-50 points in his career over what it would have been in a neutral park, as near as I can eyeball it. 40 points would be enough to move him down to eighth or so on the active list, into Frank Thomas-Brian Giles territory.

People who think they understand park factors are eager to discount any performance registered at Coors Field as meaningless, or somehow tainted. This is foolishness. We need to adjust such performances, yes, but a .613 career slugging percentage is an incredible figure wherever you are playing.

There have always been extreme hitter's parks and pitcher's parks; no one is saying that Ted Williams' records are tainted, and Chuck isn't screaming "ASTERISK!!!" like a panicky little girl whenever someone brings up Sandy Koufax.
Coach - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#99114) #
Count me among the perplexed where Alfonzo is concerned, but he's not the only problem in the land of the Giants. L.A. isn't going anywhere -- they could sure use a LF and a leadoff man -- and don't look now, but the Diamondbacks have won eight in a row. Then there's the right fielder, who was supposed to have a career year hitting in front of Bonds. Effectively "trading" Cruz (216/311/304 in May and 225/304/394 in June) for Myers, Catalanotto and Bordick is some of J.P.'s best work.

The only guy I'd rather see in pinstripes than Torborg is Bobby Valentine.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#99115) #
http://economics.about.com
There have always been extreme hitter's parks and pitcher's parks; no one is saying that Ted Williams' records are tainted, and Chuck isn't screaming "ASTERISK!!!" like a panicky little girl whenever someone brings up Sandy Koufax.

What always kills me is how people will discount the performance of home run hitters in the 90's but very few people discount the performance of 1960's pitchers.

The other thing that bugs me is how sportswriters will say that home run records are tainted by steroids, but nobody ever mentions how all the base stealers of the 1960's were popping all kinds of uppers to improve their speed and reaction time.

Mike
Coach - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#99116) #
Craig happens to be conducting an experiment in our DMB league, where he has Bonds and Helton playing home games at Coors. He doesn't have much pitching, but with Abreu, Tejada and Vidro also in the lineup, it doesn't matter. Last time I checked, his team was 42-15, best record in a 24-team league, and had scored 476 runs, a little over eight per game!
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#99117) #
I remember the one fleeting season when Edgardo Alfonzo started getting BPITW (best player in the world) talk. He was on the cover of SI with his infield mates being tagged as the "best infield ever". They argued that catchers wouldn't be included and they would challenge for that title. They insisted that if catchers would be included, their catcher being Mike Piazza, they'd win the debate hands down. I really liked Alfonzo as a seocnd baseman for the Mets. Now he has helped destroy my fantasy teams and I dislike him for hurting my hopes of a Barry Bonds World Series this year.
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#99118) #
I remember the one fleeting season when Edgardo Alfonzo started getting BPITW (best player in the world) talk. He was on the cover of SI with his infield mates being tagged as the "best infield ever". They argued that catchers wouldn't be included and they would challenge for that title. They insisted that if catchers would be included, their catcher being Mike Piazza, they'd win the debate hands down. I really liked Alfonzo as a seocnd baseman for the Mets. Now he has helped destroy my fantasy teams and I dislike him for hurting my hopes of a Barry Bonds World Series this year.
_Mick - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#99119) #
Cleveland is a baseball-crazy city?

Was. Was. In Baerga's prime, the only way I -- or anyone -- ever got tix to the Jake was when someone you knew who had season tickets was hospitalized or jailed.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#99120) #
... and Chuck isn't screaming "ASTERISK!!!" like a panicky little girl whenever someone brings up Sandy Koufax.

Not true. I was the panickiest of little girls during a thread discussing the all-time great pitchers. I attempted to temper the adulation for Koufax by presenting his ERA+ which takes into account the huge help he got from his home park and the era in which he pitched.

And as for Helton in specific, I assumed (wrongly) that my shrieking of ASTERISK followed by several exclamation marks would be seen as sarcasm. I guess I should stick the more conventional smiley emoticon. I recognize that Helton is a terrific player and that the way to deal with Coors-based numbers is NOT to simply dismiss them at hand.

I'd like to think that I'm not perceived as one of the unwashed masses, but I guess I still have to earn a stripe or two around here first.
Pistol - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#99121) #
Perhaps a couple candidates to trade for:

Brad Penny -
96.7 innings
6.8 K/9
3.0 BB/9
0.6 HR/9
4.19 ERA
3.52 DIPS ERA (13th in MLB)

Adam Eaton -
84.7 innings
8.2 K/9
3.5 BB/9
0.7 HR/9
4.46 ERA
3.64 DIPS ERA (16th in MLB)

Both are in their mid 20s and I believe are entering their early arbitration years. I suspect both players are 'tradable', and since their numbers indicate they've been unlucky perhaps the price wouldn't be as high.

FWIW - Here are the top 20 DIPS ERA leaders this season (using Voros' quick and dirty, in season, calculation):

Schmidt, Jason
Prior, Mark
Brown, Kevin
Loaiza, Esteban
Clemens, Roger
Williams, Woody
Batista, Miguel
Mussina, Mike
Wood, Kerry
Zambrano, Carlos
Ponson, Sidney
Seo, Jae Weong
Penny, Brad
Wells, David
Millwood, Kevin
Eaton, Adam
Miller, Wade
Pettitte, Andy
Mulder, Mark
Halladay, Roy
_Brent - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#99122) #
How much stock do you guys put in DIPS anyways?
_Jurgen - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#99123) #
Florida and San Diego have a lot of good young pitching. Eaton would be a great acquisition, a potential co-ace beside Halladay. (Penny, too, for that matter.)

It's hard to get a read on both clubs, however. For the past couple of years they've gone into Spring Training thinking they have a legitimate shot, only to fall to pieces before the season really gets rolling. Are the Padres willing to trade Eaton, Lawrence, Peavey, or Perez? Would the Marlins part with Penny? I imagine either would cost the Jays top prospects.
Craig B - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#99124) #
Heehee, sorry Chuck, that wasn't fair. Fun, but not fair. There's no way I'd be rough on you if you weren't a regular, anyway; I don't rough up the casual visitors.

Didn't remember the Koufax thing, and I admire your conistency.

In general, though, most "saber" types (especially) simply dismiss Coors stats out of hand, which is as you say the wrong way to deal with it. In the near term, Helton is likely to be denied his rightful place as a great player because of people who refuse to take Coors at face value... and that's a shame.
robertdudek - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#99125) #
Brent,

I'm not sure I understand your question.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#99126) #
There's no way I'd be rough on you if you weren't a regular, anyway; I don't rough up the casual visitors.

Hey, no problem. Rough me up for anything stupid that I say. There's certainly no shortage of opportunity.

Just don't put words in my mouth.
_Mick - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#99127) #
Just don't put words in my mouth.

I dunno Chuck ... remember that time you said Coach was a know-nothing dummy? (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

For the "unwashed">>> :-) :-)

Emoticons rock.
_Joe Morgan - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#99128) #
Just don't put words in my mouth.

You tell him, Chuck!
_A - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#99129) #
Cleveland is a baseball-crazy city?
I did a tour of baseball stadiums in the north-eastern US in the summer of '99...I took in games at Fenway and Yankee Stadium (plus a number of others) but the only place we couldn't get advanced tickets was Cleveland. We ended up paying double the price of a box office ticket but when the team has soldout 434 consecutive games it's not much of a surprise.
_A - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#99130) #
Correction: HAD soldout 434 consecutive...as of the game I attended at the Jake in July, 1999
_Geoff North - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#99131) #
Anyone care to calculate Glendon Rusch's DIPS? He'd probably be a pretty cheap pickup, and Aaron thinks he's pitched much better than his record shows...
Pistol - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#99132) #
I put a lot of stock in DIPS (in case you can't tell). IIRC DIPS is more predictive of future ERA than the previous years ERA. It took me a little while to believe that a pitcher has no control over balls in play, but if you look at enough different pitchers you'll find that it's pretty random.

Personally, I use it for fantasy purposes to see who's over or under valued, and what young pitchers are for real and who's a fluke. I don't use DIPS, but my own formula based on DIPS theory where I only factor in K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. It's simpler and I can calculate it in my head. It's not as exact as DIPS, but it's pretty similar.
Pistol - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#99133) #
Just curious, but how much would you be willing to give up to get an Adam Eaton?

Personally, outside of Quiroz and Rios there isn't any one position player in the minors that I wouldn't trade straight up for him.
_Jurgen - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#99134) #
I think Eaton would cost them something along the lines of Quiroz, Rios, or McGowan. If I was SD, that's what I'd want in return.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#99135) #
http://economics.about.com
Is there anywhere on the net you can get up-to-date pitching stats in text/spreadsheet format? If so, I could easy calculate DERA for every player in Excel in about 2 minutes.

Mike
Pistol - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#99136) #
Mike - I use CNNSI.com for stats. You can highlight, copy (control-C) and paste (control-V) right into a spreadsheet.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#99137) #
http://economics.about.com
Here are the 20 pitchers with over 20 innings pitched which have the largest difference between their DERA and their ERA.

I can't get the formatting of this to be readable. Can someone help me out?

NAME TEA G GS IP ERA DERA
Lopez_Albie KCA 15 0 22.7 12.69 7.34
Powell_Jay TEX 22 0 26.3 10.27 5.09
Orosco_Jesse SDN 34 0 21 8.57 4.21
Rusch_Glendon MIL 15 15 76.3 8.61 4.43
Johnson_Randy ARI 4 4 23.3 6.95 3.01
Ryan_BJ BAL 33 0 21 6.43 2.53
Wright_Jaret SDN 26 0 30.3 8.91 5.97
Bierbrodt_Nick TBA 13 5 35.3 9.69 6.78
Jones_Todd COL 33 1 39.3 8.24 5.50
Jimenez_Jose COL 38 0 35 6.69 4.04
Cruz_Juan CHN 16 0 25.3 6.40 3.83
Lewis_Colby TEX 14 14 61.3 8.66 6.09
Vizcaino_Luis MIL 35 0 28.7 9.72 7.18
Acevedo_Juan NYA 25 0 25.7 7.70 5.27
Condrey_Clay SDN 9 6 34 8.47 6.05
Yan_Esteban TEX 15 0 23.3 6.95 4.62
Schoeneweis ANA 29 0 25 5.40 3.30
Groom_Buddy BAL 27 0 21.7 5.81 3.74
Mendoza_Ramiro BOS 28 0 38.3 6.81 4.80
Saarloos_Kirk HOU 16 2 21.7 5.39 3.48

Mike
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#99138) #
http://economics.about.com
Thanks for the tip! I ended up using the Miscellaneous Pitcher Statistics at Baseball Prospectus.

Mike
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#99139) #
http://economics.about.com
Oops.. more stupid HTML tricks.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#99140) #
http://economics.about.com
Thought you'd also be interested in the Toronto numbers. This is only for players with atleast 20 IP.

Lopez_Aquilino TOR 3.32
Escobar_Kelvim TOR 3.40
Halladay_Roy TOR 3.83
Lidle_Cory TOR 3.84
Hendrickson_Mark TOR 4.68
Miller_Trever TOR 5.10
Tam_Jeff TOR 5.16
Davis_Doug TOR 5.52
Sturtze_Tanyon TOR 5.54
Politte_Cliff TOR 6.68
Walker_Pete TOR 7.10
_Brent - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#99141) #
Robert,

It seems that everyone has an opinion on DIPS, but I was wondering how many people on this board respect DIPS enough to use it in the evaluation of pitchers. Since discovering DIPS, which wasn't very long ago, I have found the statistics to be moderately projectable, even moreso than ERA. But I've always had some burning questions about it: If it is truly projectable, as Pistol might have you believe, is it appropriate to look at minor league DIPS as a predicitve tool for future major league performance (level and park adjusted of course). And what other pitching statistics are comparable to DIPS?
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#99142) #
http://economics.about.com
And what other pitching statistics are comparable to DIPS?

At it's core DERA is simply a weighted average of K/9, BB/9, HR/9 rates, similar to how slugging average is a weighted average of 1B/AB, 2B/AB, etc. Analysts have used K/9 and BB/9 (and their conjuction K/BB) rates to analyze pitchers for years, so it's not all that much different. It's really just a way to get a few different pieces of information into one digestable stat, sort of like OPS or EQA.

Mike
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#99143) #
I remember the one fleeting season when Edgardo Alfonzo started getting BPITW (best player in the world) talk. He was on the cover of SI with his infield mates being tagged as the "best infield ever". They argued that catchers wouldn't be included and they would challenge for that title. They insisted that if catchers would be included, their catcher being Mike Piazza, they'd win the debate hands down. I really liked Alfonzo as a seocnd baseman for the Mets. Now he has helped destroy my fantasy teams and I dislike him for hurting my hopes of a Barry Bonds World Series this year.
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#99144) #
I remember the one fleeting season when Edgardo Alfonzo started getting BPITW (best player in the world) talk. He was on the cover of SI with his infield mates being tagged as the "best infield ever". They argued that catchers wouldn't be included and they would challenge for that title. They insisted that if catchers would be included, their catcher being Mike Piazza, they'd win the debate hands down. I really liked Alfonzo as a seocnd baseman for the Mets. Now he has helped destroy my fantasy teams and I dislike him for hurting my hopes of a Barry Bonds World Series this year.
_Donkit R.K. - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#99145) #
Look at that, connection problems make me do the same incredibly stupid thing twice, hours apart.
robertdudek - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#99146) #
Brent,

If I wanted to estimate how well a pitcher has really pitched, I would use 80% DIPS and 20% ERA. Then you have to adjust for parks and perhaps for quality of opposition, but even without that, you'd have a pretty good idea of what to expect from a pitcher the rest of the way.
robertdudek - Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#99147) #
Brent,

I haven't tested this, but I believe that the most predictive stat for a minor league pitcher is a formula combining his strikeouts per batters faced (less IW) and walks per batters faced (less IW and HBP), adjusted for league and possibly team context. A lot of weight should be placed on K/PA

Another plus for DIPS is that it is far far more useful for relief pitchers than ERA (which is almost completely useless for them).
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