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A few random thoughts on a slow Thursday.



I don't understand Howie Clark. How can anybody have an OPS of .686 in Syracuse, and an OPS of 1.210 in Toronto? My guess is that a lot of pitchers are dumb, macho idiots: when they see a rookie come up, they try to throw their best fastball by him. And Howie Clark, presumably, has enough bat speed to catch up with someone's fastball. Why not throw the newbie breaking stuff first? After all, you don't normally reach the highest levels of pro ball unless you can hit a fastball: the minor leagues are full of pitchers with lots of heat but no command.

I'd rather not trade Shannon Stewart right now, unless the Jays get something really good in return (such as a top-rank pitching prospect, or an actual starting pitcher). Sure, Reed Johnson can do Stewart's job - the two men have remarkably similar skills - but the Jays need depth in the outfield. And Stewart is a good hitter, is well-liked, and likes playing in Toronto - he shouldn't be tossed aside like an old newspaper just because his replacement has had a good month. (Richard Griffin wants the Jays to dump him, so there's a good reason to keep him, right there.)

I dislike the very idea of Esteban Loaiza.

Juan Acevedo could become this generation's Doyle Alexander. Think of it: a successful pitcher with other teams signs with the Yanks, and is released in a fit of pique after a rough stretch. The Jays sign him and slowly bring him back to life, and he helps the team down the stretch and for a couple of years after that. (Let me pause while I adjust my rose-coloured spectacles.) I don't know whether Acevedo will help - thousands of Yankee fans have strong opinions on the subject - but he's a low-risk investment. When the alternatives are Jeff Tam and Tanyon Sturtze, there's really nothing to lose.

Anyone want to start an Aquilino Lopez Death Pool? I say his arm falls off on August 15. What do you think?

Y'know, Woodward and Hudson have a lot in common with Trammell and Whitaker (though they're not as good). Woody's a hard-working, non-controversial shortstop with some power; Hudson is a hard-working but slightly flakey second baseman with good speed and line-drive gap power. Woody and the O-Dog are roughly the same calibre of player, just as the Tiger duo were. They work well together, and I'm impressed that both have managed to keep from falling into sophomore slumps. This says something about their willingness to work hard and make adjustments.

I'm not so sure that Guillermo Quiroz is going to pass Kevin Cash. Quiroz's average is slowly sinking: he's down to .290, while Cash's average is up to .260. Quiroz is hitting for much more power, of course, but didn't Cash hit for more power in AA than he's showing now? Cash is a long way from being ready for the majors, but let's not give up on him just yet. It's not as though the Jays need catching help right now...

I've been lazy. I've only voted for Delgado about 12 times. Time for me to get back to punching those virtual ballots.

People are starting to notice that the Jays' schedule might be a factor in the pennant race. The Jays have 18 games remaining against Baltimore, a team that they traditionally beat like a gong, and have yet to play Cleveland or Detroit. The Yankees and Red Sox probably have suffered neck strains from spending so much time looking over their shoulders. Arrrrr!

So, who will the Yankees trade for, and how high will the team's payroll be when they're finished? Analysts point out, correctly, that the Yankees don't have many prospects to trade. But they still have their bottomless wallet: teams out of contention that are looking to save money will be willing to accept any warm body in trade in order to receive some payroll relief (as the Jays did last year when they dumped Mondesi). Look for the Marlins to offload a couple of good players in return for a couple of warm buckets of spit.

Happy Thursday, everyone!
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Craig B - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#99750) #
Anyone want to start an Aquilino Lopez Death Pool? I say his arm falls off on August 15. What do you think?

I think he'll be fine. Relievers should be able to pitch 80-90 innings a year if they're handled properly, and Lopez isn't throwing a ton of pitches... just 17 per inning or 19 per appearance. A couple extra pitches here or there isn't going to hurt him, and even in two whole innings yesterday he only threw 23 pitches; not even enough to get tired.

Oh yeah... Delgado's ahead by 70,000 votes now; you can probably save your mouse hand.
_King Rat - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#99751) #
I don't get the impression that Griffin wants the Jays to trade Stewart. I read his latest piece as his most bizarre attack on Ricciardi yet, insinuating that trading Stewart would be a cost-cutting move in its entirety. I say that if the Jays are still in it after the All-Star break and a solid starter is available for Stewart plus a prospect, they should do it. If not, hang on to him and get the draft picks.
_King Rat - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#99752) #
There's still the other Jays to vote for-Wells is the only one with even a ghost's chance though. Besides, if Giambi gets hot his vote may surge, and noone wants to see him start the All-Star Game. Other than the pinstriped barbarians, of course.
Pistol - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#99753) #
I thought Griffin was trying to say the Jays should keep Stewart yesterday, although the logic was strange.

Isn't Quiroz 4-5 years younger than Cash? Advantage Quiroz.
_Tie - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#99754) #
Hey folks, I've been trolling here for about a month, and am thrilled to find this site. Nice Job.

RE : Lopez, I was wondering the same thing lasty night as Tosca kept him in for the ninth with the 5 run lead. Is there a reason to give him a second inning in that game at the risk of making him unavailable for today? I think this is a case perhaps where he was the only pitcher able to earn a save in the game, so Tosca left him in. Or maybe he is that afraid to bring in Tam or Strutze (more likely this is the case). Still, you have Politte if the first 2 or three runners get on, why not conserve Lopez as much as possible, as somewhere in the next couple of days we will NEED a shutout inning or two from him you have to think. Perhaps he would miss today's afternoon game whether he went 1 or 2 innings, and in that case I can see the merit in leaving him in and reducing the chance of a miraculous comeback, but I would still like to see him begin to get rest whenever possible.

I don't know why, but I root for Acevedo, even when he was a Yankee (and that's saying a lot).
_Lurch - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#99755) #
Trade Stewart.

Lopez will be fine.

Quiroz is a future Posada. Cash is a future Huckaby.
_Mick - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#99756) #
I dislike the very idea of Esteban Loaiza.

I hate to dunk your head in the proverbial bucket of ice, Dave, but I've just started on compiling the Midseason Andujar Update, and E-Lo looks like the clear leader at the turn ...
Coach - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#99757) #
Howie Clark was injured all spring and "got his work in" against live pitching in AAA. His slow start was expected, so once he was fully healthy and got into a good groove, he was back in the Jays' plans, like he was when they signed him. The guy can hit a double on a pitchout -- probably a single on a pickoff throw -- but he doesn't play any of his six positions well enough to be a regular.

The Yankees might have been the winners in the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes, but that event may be postponed, as the Royals, incredibly enough, are suddenly back in the playoff picture. (Someone please explain why the Twins prefer Rick Reed to Johan Santana). K.C. is facing the same tough decisions as Toronto -- it's hard to trade the present for the future, even if it makes economic sense, when you're in a pennant race. Fans don't understand.

If the Jays keep Stewart, Lidle and Escobar for the second half, they won't get as much in return when all three inevitably depart in the offseason, but it would be a public commitment to winning, or at least trying to win, this year. Unfortunately, standing pat may not be good enough in the East, and there's no way J.P. will be allowed spend more money to add that starter we all covet, unless he trades Stewart.
_DS - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#99758) #
Anybody think that JP might be able to convince Delgado to defer some money to win? If JP feels they have a real shot, and is unable to convince Rogers to hand out more money, perhaps he can go to Delgado for the needed funds. I'm sure Delgado would have no problem considering the direction this team is heading. Normally I would consider this a bad move to start defering money to players, but if it's a one time thing with only one player, I think it could be plausible.
Joe - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#99759) #
J.P. probably won't talk to Delgado about deferring now. After all, deferring money is probably the only way Delgado will be here in two years' time.
_Cristian - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#99760) #
Woody and the O-Dog sounds like a bad childrens' show. Possibly about a hardworking bird and his wisecrackin' canine chum.
Dave Till - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#99761) #
Coach, thanks for the info on Howie Clark. Now his numbers make more sense; it's good to hear that he's actually a good hitter.

From what I've read (here and elsewhere), the Jays are going to postpone payroll decisions until July. If the Jays are still in contention at that time (and the Yanks haven't bought a new team), I think Ted Rogers will probably be willing to pony up some extra cash.

I think the Jays should be willing to let their free agents walk, and take the draft picks (unless they can get somebody really good at the trade deadline). They're probably better off reloading their system through the draft.


I hate to dunk your head in the proverbial bucket of ice, Dave, but I've just started on compiling the Midseason Andujar Update, and E-Lo looks like the clear leader at the turn ...


I'm not sure what the Midseason Andujar Update is; I assume it's got something to do with his favourite saying, "Youneverknow."

Call me uncharitable, but I still think that Loaiza might be either (a) scuffing baseballs, or (b) trying harder because he's looking for a new contract.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#99762) #
if Giambi gets hot

King, doesn't sound like you've been paying attention.

After a recent tear, Giambi is up to 390/506. His PRC/25 (Nelson Lu's park adjusted runs created per 25 outs) has him ranked 4th among all MLB first basemen, behind just Delgado, Sweeney and Helton.
_Elijah - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#99763) #
People are starting to notice that the Jays' schedule might be a factor in the pennant race. The Jays have 18 games remaining against Baltimore, a team that they traditionally beat like a gong, and have yet to play Cleveland or Detroit. The Yankees and Red Sox probably have suffered neck strains from spending so much time looking over their shoulders. Arrrrr!

I was taking a quick look at the Yankees and Red Sox schedules and I have to say that I don't think the Sox and Yankees' schedules look that much better. The Yanks haven't played the Tigers or Indians either and they've already played the A's and Mariners. It looks like George may have a beef in that the Jays and Sox only play 6 or 7 games against the A's and M's while they play 9 games or so against the Angels and Rangers.

If the Jays can wade through the Yankee/Red Sox land mines relatively unscathed in early July, the Blue Jays and Red Sox play mirror image stretches in mid-August against the two top teams in the AL West followed a quick two-gamer against the Sox in Fenway.

After that, the Jays only have the Yankees among the Tribe, Rays, O's and Tigers. But as easy as that may seem, the Red Sox only have the O's, White Sox, D-Rays and Tribe while the Yankees have the Tigers, O's and Rays. Meanwhile, the A's play the home-away round-robin against the tough AL West to conclude the season.

I still think the Yankees will eventually pull away from the Sox and Jays but it looks like it's going to come down to whichever team fattens up more. If A's can get on their annual second half roll, it may not matter, but if not, if the Jays and Sox can hang close to them going into September, it should be interesting.
Mike D - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#99764) #
Regarding the Yankees and Red Sox' straining of necks...I kind of like where the Jays are sitting, and I hope they stay an extremely close third for as long as possible. Coach, you're the old track announcer, but I enjoy seeing the Jays in position to strike. I think it would be harder for the Jays psychologically to have gotten to 40-31 by starting out like the Royals, losing their early grip on the division lead, and trying to hang on to their toehold in the pennant race.

Plus, if the Jays were 5-6 games ahead right now, the Yankees and Red Sox would both likely be breaking the bank to improve their clubs. Let them wonder about the Jays. We've got Catch-Up-22 to end the season (Det, TB, Bal, Det, Bal, TB, Cle) and make the final drive for the postseason.

Regarding "present" vs. "future"...Until the worldwide draft finally materializes, the Yankees of the world will have a tremendous edge in acquiring talent -- not just FA's, but also young international phenoms to whom they can shell out a big bonus. In other words, opportunities to win for the Torontos of the world might only come up every so often, and the "future" is a risky proposition given that we don't know how awesome of a team a big-market club might assemble by 2005.

Flexibility is the touchstone of great management. I have every confidence that JP will sell if and when the team drops below the point of no return, but buy if the Jays still contend.

As far as "winning now" goes, forget the "too bad Joe Fan doesn't understand the need to build for the future" reasoning. The fact is, the Yankees as constituted are vulnerable *this season.* Will the Jays have enough in the tank to hang with them? Maybe not. But youneverknow...
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#99765) #
http://economics.about.com
A couple things which have been somewhat lost in the analysis:

1. If the Jays are in the hunt, that's one more team the Yankees and the Red Sox have to worry about. That will increase their desperation certain teams will have to do *something*. That increases the chances that one of the teams will give up a prospect which could help them in the future, or the chance that they get stuck with a couple of bad contracts which handicaps them in the future. Both good things for the Jays.

2. If the Jays are seen as "buyers" and not "sellers", it should raise the price of veteran talent. This is a good thing for the Jays if they aren't seriously looking to acquire anyone. It's always a good thing to make your competitors pay more than they have to.

Mike
Gitz - Thursday, June 19 2003 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#99766) #
For anyone interested, Mike Hampton has a no-hitter thru seven innings. Braves lead the Phillies 2-0, courtesy of Hampton's pitching and two Gary Sheffield home runs.
_R Billie - Friday, June 20 2003 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#99767) #
Gary Sheffield continues to be a bright spot on a Basher team full of injuries.

I don't like Acevedo much really. His ERA last year was a mirage equal to the dimensions of Comerica park. He's going to take a beating in a park without very spacious dimensions since he's a dead flyball pitcher without many K's. Sort of the reverse Jeff Tam. The Yankees already found that out.
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