There's some rain in the Baltimore area, but they should be able to get the game in, it's currently dry downtown.

By the way, tune the TV to TBS... Mike Hampton has a no-hitter through six.

Hey the Fan Internet feed appears to be hosed. What's the URL for the other local station that carries it?

Hampton's through seven innings now, still no hits.

Doof. You scooped me, Craig. I just posted, on a separate thread, about Hampton. It's not thru seven innings.

Stop that!

Here is a radar photo for the Baltimore region. It looks like we are good to go, though there is some rain in the area.

I'm listening on CJCS.

Nice typing, JG: it's 'now' thru seven innings. That's it. I'm leaving.

Hampton snared two line drives up the middle, one of them only a handful of pitchers could have made.

Thank you Robert Dudek! Thought I might have had to do some work today instead...

Yay, Vernon!

Do you think Leo Mazzone knows what he's doing?

No helmet necessary for Helling -- Wells hit it way over his head for a 2-run HR.

CJCS went to a commenrcial break mid-inning (probably because the broadcast came on abruptly just before gametime). 2-0 for the good guys after Vernon hits a 2-run blast (est 427 feet). Delgado was hit by a pitch and Myers has just walked.

Double digits today?

Marlon Byrd, base hit. End of no-no.

CJCS real audio has gone screwy.

Damn I love the internet! Thanks Robert.

Actually my feed way out here in the West is still good.

Hampton went from no-hitter to no-decision, as Smoltz, who had converted just 67 of his last 69 save opportunities, allowed the tying runs.

The "old" Escobar, as starter, setup man or closer, was notorious for getting ahead of hitters, then showing all his pitches, out of the zone, until the count was full. The "new" Kelvim seems to have finally accepted that it's OK to use your fielders, even on 0-2 or 1-2, and -- surprise! -- he isn't walking people.

Not long ago, we talked about the "phantom" play at second base, and the Jays just got another break from the umps, who called Cat safe on a potential DP because the shortstop was off the bag. Wells beat the relay at first, so everyone was safe. V-Dub is on with a fielder's choice, and Deivi Cruz is charged with an error for not getting the lead out. Another walk to Delgado (they sure don't want to pitch to him) loaded the bases for Myers, and Crash delivered a 2-run single. It's 4-0 and counting...

It is like the twilight zone listening to the game on CJCL and following on MLB Gameday. I just heard Myers driving in 2 on the radio. When I look at MLB Gameday, I see that Phelps has struck out and Hudson grounded out, both after the Myers single.

That makes for about a five minute delay.........

It's easier to teach a hard thrower how to pitch than it is to teach a pitcher how to throw harder.

(Try saying that ten times fast!)

Yay, Greg!

Wildrose,

What's your western radio feed?

Cristian I'm using Roberts link, I had to click on it a few times , but its working.

Helling is up to 90 pitches through 4 innings.

Yay again, Vernon!

Here's why I've always felt Escobar would be a better starter than a reliever.

This year: pitches 1-15 1.096 ops
15-30 .509 ops
30-45 .460 ops

The splits 2000-2002: 1-15 .753 ops
15-30 .677 ops
30-45 .624 ops

Escobar has a great arm, but he struggles initially to find his proper arm slot, when he gets locked in his great stuff takes over. Pat Hengten was another hurler who struggled in the early going due to this anomaly. You'd think warming up in the pen would alleviate this problem , but with some guys it just doesn't.

...I've always felt Escobar would be a better starter than a reliever

I think most people felt that way. The move to the bullpen was to try to prevent that mysterious arm ailment.

That that!And that!

test

Italics go away!

Escobar is out after 90 pitches.

Beautiful. He should have no problem pitching on three days' rest.

At what point do we start thinking about keeping Escobar around next year? That's three great starts in a row, but a lot of people are still lumping him in with Stewart and Lidle as trade bait in July. I know his reputation for showing (brief) flashes of greatness, but we need pitching so badly, how can we let a guy like this go?

A comprehensive victory for the Jays.

I would say keep him for this season, offer him arbitration and take the draft pick(s) when he signs a multi-year contract somewhere else.

Lidle is not bad either. Instead in going for a fourth starter that ideally could be a co-ace, must people want to build around Doc as if good pitching has no cost. Doc, Kelvin and Cory is a very good foundation that will cost around 20M and be very much manageable.
I'm for the Aquilino as starter experience...

Think Billy Koch has lost his job yet?

I never thought the Jays wanted to trade Escobar simply because he sucked. That's kinda a weird reason to trade a player. ("Hey, this guy sucks. But do you want to give us something good for him?") I thought it was more a salary issue, which was an Ash era decision. (To J.P.'s eyes, Escobar is a young pitcher with a lot of potential but a shaky record who's nonetheless making almost twice as much Hudson, Mudler, or Zito.) The fact that he's currently pitching well means he's probably worth a hell of a lot more in a deal. I think he's still worth trading for that top prospect (Greinke?) M.P. doesn't think anyone will be willing to deal.

Since the game is over, I thought I'd offer an alternative to eating countless Fudge-O's, or whatever you guys do in your spare time (Note: This is not a mock. I just finished off a box of Fudge-O's five minutes ago).

Here is a link to a radio feed of tonight's Auburn game. Today's match up pits our very own Thomas Mastny (0-0) against Jamestown's Travis Chick (0-1). At least it's more nutritious than a whole box of cookies...

Funny today we never hear about Kelvim's mysterious nerve ailment from his days as a starter in 2001. Despite a myriad of medical investigations nothing definitive was ever discovered.

I suppose either the problem has dissipated or the Jays are hiding the issue to enhance his trade value. I haven't seen any evidence that the numbness has returned. He certainly looked healthy in his recent 120 pitch outing.

If the guy is indeed healthy can we really afford to trade him? His run as a starter in 2001/2003 cannot be ignored.

Blast! Don't follow the link, it's a trap!

The Auburn game doesn't seem to be broadcast on that particular station tonight. I apologize for the mistake.

http://economics.about.com
I never thought the Jays wanted to trade Escobar simply because he sucked. That's kinda a weird reason to trade a player. ("Hey, this guy sucks. But do you want to give us something good for him?") I thought it was more a salary issue, which was an Ash era decision. (To J.P.'s eyes, Escobar is a young pitcher with a lot of potential but a shaky record who's nonetheless making almost twice as much Hudson, Mudler, or Zito.) The fact that he's currently pitching well means he's probably worth a hell of a lot more in a deal. I think he's still worth trading for that top prospect (Greinke?) M.P. doesn't think anyone will be willing to deal.

I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong, but, again, a deadline deal for Escobar probably won't bring in a lot. I don't see how Escobar is more valuable than say, Ray Durham was last year.

If you traded him today, you'd probably get more just because there's more time left in the season and there are more potential bidders. I can't see J.P. doing that, tho.

Like anything else we do, we need to look at the evidence and consider past performance: in this case the past performance of the deadline trade market.

Mike

I think the Jays would be better off holding onto players, offering them arbitration, and then letting them sign a multi year deal somewhere else. The draft picks are likely to be better than any prospect a team would be willing to give up.

And even if someone accepted arbitration it wouldn't be a big deal as the Jays are extremely flexible with their payroll next year and the contract would only be one year.

With Escobar split between the bullpen and starting last year and this year does anyone know what compensation type free agent he'd be?

The Syracuse game starts at 8 PM ET. Jason Arnold versus Dave Burba.

I couldn't connect using the Syracuse feed, but here is the Indianapolis feed (click on "Listen Live" icon at the top right of the page).

Syracuse leads 2-0 as recent call-up Sequea has just doubled in the 2 runs.

With Escobar split between the bullpen and starting last year and this year does anyone know what compensation type free agent he'd be?

No one could know until the end of this season, when all of the stats are compiled.

Ten games over .500; not bad. Since that 10-18 record at the end of April, the Jays have gone 31-13, a .704 pace. Even assuming they aren't going to be that good the rest of the way, it looks like they'll win 90 games. Is it reasonable to project this as a .600 team from now through September? That would equal 95 wins, which might get them into the tournament. I'm assuming they stand pat, or even improve a little by trading Stewart for a prospect, then acquiring a rental pitcher (Ponson? Colon?) with the money saved. So I agree with Pistol and others that holding on to Lidle and Escobar looks like the best way to go. Until recently, I thought it would be foolish to make a qualifying offer to Kelvim -- what if he accepted it?

It's no big deal to let either pitcher (or both) walk next winter and take the draft picks. One reason J.P. got Lidle so cheap (SS Rouse, hitting .291 in AA, and P Mowday, struggling in Low-A) was that he was in the final year of his contract. Some of the big names that will be in a similar position next year, unless they sign extensions, are Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Matt Morris, Matt Clement, Odalis Perez, Kris Benson, Russ Ortiz and Freddy Garcia. Ricciardi should be able to package kids for at least one of them. Don't forget Curt Schilling; Tom Cheek said on the broadcast today that even the Blue Jays players are excited about that rumour, which supposedly resurfaced in the clubhouse.

Skychiefs have scored 8 runs (7 base-hits, 2 errors) in their current inning and are still batting. Indianapolis has really kicked the ball around. 8-0 is the score (this inning has gone on forever, will Arnold be rusty?)

http://economics.about.com
Until recently, I thought it would be foolish to make a qualifying offer to Kelvim -- what if he accepted it?

I thought it was foolish to offer Kelvim arbitration last winter. I really blew the call on that one.

Mike

Congratulations to Gil Patterson and coaching staff in creating an anatomical miracle, that is the unification of a 10 cent head and a million dollar arm and producing a good starting pitcher,(for now) I just hope Kelvim can keep it going, no matter what, I am just going to sit back and enjoy the ride

As the official rabble-douser of Batter's Box, it's my solemn duty to pour some cold water on undue optimism. In that spirit, I present the Jays schedule between now and Sept. 3

Jun 20-22: @ MON
Jun 23-26: vs BAL
Jun 27-29: vs MON
Jun 30-Jul 2: @ DET
Jul 3-6: @ BAL

Six games against the Expos, who are hanging tough in the NL East, but admittedly are not the same without Vlad. Seven games against the O's, who aren't pushovers but are beatable. And three against the Tigers, who are both. That's the end of the cream-puffery for a while.

Jul 8-10: vs BOS
Jul 11-13: vs NYY
Jul 17-20: @ BOS
Jul 21-22: @ NYY
Jul 23-24: vs CHW

Seven against the Red Sox, five against the Yankees. Both teams, we can be assured, have circled these series with red markers, following the broom-beatings laid on them by Toronto last month. Jason Giambi's on fire and Bernie Williams is expected back around the All-Star Break. For Boston, Pedro is back and will not be skipping any turns against the Jays this time. And for good luck, here come the ChiSox, who put the boots to Toronto in their previous meeting. Thirteen very tough games.

Jul 25-27: vs BAL
Jul 29-31: vs TB

Late-summer vacation, though Tampa is leading the season series and always seems to give the Jays problem disproportional to their talent. Then comes the deluge.

Aug 1-3: @ ANA
Aug 4-6: @ TB
Aug 8-10: vs TEX
Aug 11-14: @ SEA
Aug 15-17: @ OAK
Aug 19-21: vs SEA
Aug 22-25: vs OAK
Aug. 26-27: @ BOS
Aug. 29-31: @ CLE
Sep. 1-4: vs NYY

Whoof. Starting with that California-Florida-Ontario-Washington State jaunt at the beginning of the month, this is easily the toughest stretch the Jays will face all year, including the first 20 games of the season. Right about this time, I expect Carlos Tosca's windmilling pitching changes in May and June to come home to roost.

September is pure cream-puffery, and the Jays should be able to do some damage. If they've survived July and August within striking distance of the playoffs, then they have an excellent shot at the playoffs (which, without a solid second starter, they will quickly leave). But I have my doubts that they'll survive August, and even July could be a stretch for a young team with tired pitching.

None of this should be construed to mean I'm not excited by this club, because I am. They're really impressed me, winning the games they had to win, keeping an even keel, and coming together much faster than expected. Throw a Schilling into this mix and crazy stuff could happen. But there's a six-game losing streak (or two) lurking in the next several weeks, and those are very hard to recover from in the heat of summer. Count me, unfortunately, still among the unswayed.

Realistically, I have to agree with Jordan. The pitching just isn't there. I still think that Kelvim will break all our hearts.

The only advantage the Jays have is that they aren't expected to win anything. The Yanks and Sox are, and either or both might melt down under the weight of their own expectations. If Steinbrenner blows a gasket and does something stupid, the Yankees might become beatable. But I think somebody will eventually point out to The Boss that his team is still in first place, and Torre will stabilize the situation.

Please just let me dream!

I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong, but, again, a deadline deal for Escobar probably won't bring in a lot

M.P.--I don't think they should wait until the deadline if they can get something good now, because he won't be around next year. A handful of good starts doesn't justify Excobar's $4 M+ salary. I'd still rather let him walk than offer arbitration.

Lidle's too much of a bargain to deal for anything less than spectacular (it'd be like trading Catalanotto), especially since I think there's a chance they could resign him for under $3 M a year.

And despite our hopes and dreams, I don't think the trade market will be particularly good for Stewart. Teams want Beltran because he hits for power and average, has good speed, and is good with the glove. He could hit anywhere in the top four spots on most clubs. (Usually, the players who fans don't want to see leave are the ones who net the most in return... remember how nobody else wanted Cruz, either?) Stewart doesn't play good D, never hit for power, and he can't run like he used to with those nagging leg injuries. We here at Battersbox might know the value of OBP*1.4+SLG, but that doesn't mean the rest of baseball does. Of all the clubs that have a shot at the playoffs, I think only KC could use a LF of Stewart's description.

That said, I think it would be demoralising for the team if Lidle, Escobar, and Stewart were traded for guys who might help in 2005. (Carlos D. in particular might fall apart considering he probably won't even be here anymore.) Maybe it's best for J.P. to test the waters, try to snag that prize prospect who may or may not be available, and if they can't simply stand pat and see how far the team can go as is.

(I think we can all agree that it's no longer in the club's best interest to trade Escobar, Lidle, or Stewart simply to rid themselves of the salary obligations.)

I'm assuming they stand pat, or even improve a little by trading Stewart for a prospect, then acquiring a rental pitcher (Ponson? Colon?) with the money saved.

Coach--J.P. reputedly scoffed at getting Ponson last year. (Wasn't it Cruz for Ponson, or something like that?) Surely he's not going to be swayed by this small sample size.

Honestly, I don't think Toronto has the bullpen to be a real threat in September, and I'd rather add prospects than subtract.

http://economics.about.com
That said, I think it would be demoralising for the team if Lidle, Escobar, and Stewart were traded for guys who might help in 2005.

Agreed. I think the demand for all 3 of these guys will be light for the following reasons:

Stewart - I think the demand for outfielders is going to be quite small and the supply quite high, lowering the price. Stewart is a consistent .300 hitter with good speed and he gets on base quite a bit. If a GM needed an outfielder, I'm sure he'd be interested in Stewart.

Lidle - On most playoff teams he's a #3 guy. I could see him being useful on a team like the 2001 or 2002 Diamondbacks where they have two superstar pitchers then they have nobody. It's always useful to have a quality pitcher for games 3 and 6. I just don't think there'd be a huge demand for him.

Escobar - He definately has value but I'm not sure how much a contender would be interested in him because of his inconsistency. I see him being a player you pick up at the beginning of the year and hope he has an Esteban Loaiza sized breakout.

Mike

http://economics.about.com
I think there will be atleast 11 buyers at the trade deadline. Those teams are:

Boston
The Yankees
Minny
Oakland
Seattle
Atlanta
Houston
The Cubbies
St. Louis
L.A.
San Fran

There will probably be another team or two like the Mets who are 7 or 8 games out but figure they can make those games up. The Phillies may be that team this year.

A lot of these teams will want to acquire bullpen help. Here's how BP rates their pens:

HOU #1
LA #2
SEA #4
CHC #5
OAK #6
MIN #9
ATL #11
NYY #13
SFG #26
STL #27
BOS #29

Oakland usually picks up a reliever or two at the deadline. I could see the Yankees on down trying to pick one up. So there should be atleast 5 teams looking for bullpen help. I doubt the Jays will be selling relievers. I couldn't imagine them parting with Lopez, but it's always possible.

Had Politte pitched as well this year as he did last year, J.P. probably could have done well to trade him at the deadline. Now I think he's a lot more valuable to the Jays than what he'd fetch at the deadline.

Here's what I see the teams going for (other than bullpen help) at the deadline:

Yankees - They need depth, even after acquiring Sierra. A player like Berg or Bordick would be useful to them, but JP seems to really love both players, so he'll probably hang onto them. If they got really bold they could take a run for Mike Lowell or go for a left fielder (Stewart?) but I think they'll keep playing Ventura and Matsui. If either of those players get injured, they'll be in the market at those positions big time. If Clemens, Mussina and Wells stay healthy, there's no way they go for a starter.

Red Sox: The Red Sox are one team that may be able to use Cory Lidle. That way they could keep Kim in the pen, strengthening them all around. I can't imagine J.P. trading a pitcher to a division rival, but you never know. Their hitting is solid. They could probably use a backup middle infielder as well.

Minnesota: Second base, second base, second base! I can't imagine the Jays trading O-Dog, tho. Rivas is an okay backup, so they don't really need one of the Jays bench players. Their starters haven't been great this year, but I imagine the front office will keep faith with them.

I was at the Red Wings game Wednesday night. I don't think Restovich is quite ready for prime time, but he just killed a first pitch fastball to straightaway center (408 feet at Frontier Field, I think) and missed a homerun by about a foot. Just thought I'd bring that up.

Seattle: They really need a third baseman. Will they be in the Lowell sweepstakes? I'm not sold on Randy Winn, but I don't know if Pat will replace him. They could use a second catcher because Davis isn't spectacular. The problem is Davis is a switchhitter without a real platoon differential, so a platoon wouldn't work all that well. I can't see them sitting Davis on the bench full time, so they'll probably stick with him. They've got more than enough pitching.

Oakland: Their offense this year has been pretty lousy. They need outfield help and will probably push for Beltran hard. They really need a first baseman as well. They could use Stewart as an OF/DH if they're willing to move Erubiel to 1st. I'm sure they'll acquire atleast one big bat, if not two. We all know about their pitching.

Atlanta: Usually pretty quiet at the deadline and will probably stay that way. I doubt they'll kick Castilla off of 3rd. I don't expect them to do anything unless someone big gets hurt. Their starters are just slightly above average, but I can't see them making a move there.

Houston: They need a shortstop badly. I don't know if they have anyone in mind. I don't think the O's would trade Mora. If they're into small sample sizes, they could go for A-Gone from Florida. Graffinino or Valentine from the White Sox wouldn't be a bad pickup. I don't know if they'd be interested enough in Bordick to make a serious offer. We know that JP is comfortable talking to the 'Stros front office. They don't need a starter.

Cubbies: They'll probably win the Lowell sweepstakes. They could use a 2B and a catcher too, but I can't see them filling more than one hole. Top four starters are quite good.

St. Louis: Wonder if they'd be interested in Ken Huckaby? :) They could use another bat, as a washed up Tino Martinez, Orlando Palmeiro, and Miguel Cairo have all had a significant number of plate appearances. They'll probably address the pen first. I'm not sure which position players they'd be interested in. They could also use a good #3 pitcher like Lidle. Do the Cardinals have anyone the Jays would be interested in?

L.A.: All four of their infielders are terrible. They'll probably upgrade at atleast a couple of positions, with 2nd and short being the most likely. Lo Duca is the only player who is hitting yet they're still playing well. I guess they're the anti-Jays. I doubt they'll try to pick up a pitcher when they have so many other holes to fill.

San Fran: Alfonzo has been a bust at 3rd, but he should pick up in the second half. Neifi is hitting slightly better than expected. They could use another experienced arm, but they have a ton of good young starters. Given their payroll limits, I can't imagine them doing anything drastic.

*WHEW*. That was really long. I should have just sent this to Coach and made him turn it into an article.

Mike

Tampa Bay, Texas and Cleveland make that stretch a little less formidible that the first 20.

http://economics.about.com
*WHEW*. That was really long. I should have just sent this to Coach and made him turn it into an article.

Err.. that should have said asked him to turn it into an article. I get really presumptious when I'm tired. :)

Mike

Cubbies: They'll probably win the Lowell sweepstakes

Nope. Jose Hernandez has come back. And it didn't cost them Cruz.

Honestly, I could see Stewart going to KC or Oakland, but that's about it. Since he's limited to LF or DH, nobody else could fit him in without sitting an expensive player to make room.

http://economics.about.com
Nope. Jose Hernandez has come back. And it didn't cost them Cruz

I hadn't seen that news anywhere... but I searched for it, and you're right. That just came off the wire 20 minutes ago. Good call.

It should be interesting to see Belhorn in Coors.

Mike

Minnesota: Second base, second base, second base!

Everyone is always on Luis Rivas's case but Guzman is barely better, perhaps even worse. If the Expos do start to deal at some point, maybe the Twins could look at adding Cabrera. The Twins and Expos actually seem like they might match-up well when it comes to trading time; The Expos can't take on any salary and the Twins have a lot of affordable but talented players. The Expos could possibly take one of the Twins spare outfielders in a deal (Mohr, Keilty) and move Wilkerson to 1B and put Cordero's wife beating a** on the bench.

Although Minya seems like he is infected by the Mets syndrome (Steve Phillips R.I.P.) where he feels he must add a major name in any deal he makes.

It all depends on what Escobar wants in terms of salary next year. If it's $4 or $5 million then I have a hard time saying no to a starting pitcher with his stuff (still maintaining 9 K's per 9 innings as a starter). Starting pitching doesn't grow on trees and as much as I like Jason Arnold and Corey Thurman, I'm not very comfortable pinning the hopes of 2004 on them.