Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Advance Scout: Orioles, June 17-19

We're finally here, Gentle Readers: The first three of nineteen -- count 'em, 19 -- games with our divisional opponent, the Orioles. Their hitting might cause a problem or two for the shakier members of the Jays' staff, but Baltimore's rotation might make the Toronto brain trust a little more forgiving in their critiques of the unbalanced schedule.

Offensively, the O's have surprised. The Flanagan/Beattie Franken-GM have preached patience at the plate, and most Orioles not named Deivi have responded. According to Peter Gammons, the Orioles gave up on Sarge's son because Gary Jr. wouldn't buy into the new philosophy.

And then there's Melvin Mora. There have been naysayers posting here at the Box, but I stand by the following: Mora has played like an All-Star, he will be an All-Star, and he should be an All-Star. Yeah, I was probably also one of the guys who guffawed when some "sucker" wound up with him in the 19th round of the rotisserie draft. But all Mora's done is work counts, rip line drives all over the field (and even out of the park on occasion), and supply reliable defence no matter where he's played.

But the Orioles have surrendered some serious hit totals, mostly from the starting staff; Oriole hurlers have been tagged to the tune of .280 by opposing hitters -- and they have yet to face the Jays!

Memorial Stadium and its "Oriole Magic" did in Toronto clubs time and again in the '80s, but Camden Yards has been one of the Jays' favourite opposition venues since it opened. Ponson will be a challenge in the shadows of Thursday's 3:00 matinee, but starts by Halladay and Escobar similar to what they've shown recently should get the Jays' road trip off to a flying start.

On to the Advance Scout!

* From the Baltimore Sun's "Scouting Report" on the Jays today: "So much for Toronto being penciled into third place again this season. The Blue Jays have jumped into a fray usually reserved for New York and Boston" ...
* The Orioles are 4-8 in interleague play thus far, even though they just took two of three from mighty Milwaukee ...
* Last Wednesday, the Orioles rallied back from 6-0 and 7-2 deficits to pull to within a run, but a rain delay of nearly two hours in the eighth killed the O's momentum ...
* Melvin Mora had his 23-game hitting streak snapped by the Brewers on Friday, although he walked, got hit by a pitch and scored ... Last Thursday, his 23rd game of that streak was a dramatic one, as he homered in his final at-bat to keep it going ... Said Mora, "I'd have taken a blooper. I wasn't looking for a homer -- that was extra"... He has 21 multi-hit games, including a ridiculous seven in a row in late May ... It's hard to argue with 360/465/585 ... He's become a fan favourite, with extended ovations during at-bats ... Plus, he's committed just one error despite playing five positions, including 14 games in the middle infield ...
* Tonight's opponent, Omar Daal, will likely bear a striking resemblance to fresh meat to Jays hitters ... He's been touched up for 97 hits in just 74 and two-thirds innings ...
* Although he missed three weeks due to injury, B.J. Surhoff has contributed about as well as could be expected at 321/366/438 ...
* Old friend Tony Batista snapped out of a 2-for-20 funk with three hits on Sunday, including a home run ... He's already committed 10 errors at third ...
* Jay Gibbons, selected by the Jays in the 14th round in '98, is red-hot, on an eight-game hitting streak and going 14-for-26 (.538) over the last seven ... He had three homers and and two doubles over the weekend, and is slugging .508 ... He hit his first career grand slam against Milwaukee on Friday night: "I can't remember ever hitting one in my life" ... With 50 RBI, he's on pace to smash his career high of 69 ... Gibbons: "That's my job, to drive in runs" ... For what it's worth, Gibbons leads the major leagues in RBI's out of the 5-hole ...
* Tomorrow's opponent, Rick Helling, tossed five shutout innings on Thursday's multiple-rain-delay game against the Cubs ... The former power pitcher has just 40 strikeouts in 74 innings ...
* Thursday's starter, Sidney Ponson, has had a lot of run support, but is nevertheless holding opposing hitters to a .231 average en route to a 9-3 record ... His last two starts have been outstanding, allowing just one run in each ... In his last start, the roly-poly Aruban retired the first hitter, endured a rain delay of nearly two hours, and then threw six strong for the victory ...
* Surprising 24-year-old Luis Matos has hit in eighteen of his twenty games this season since his May call-up ... His average finally dipped below .400 with his 0-fer on Sunday ... He's at 381/409/548, and is 6-for-8 on the basepaths ...
* Geronimo Gil (pronounce both g's like h's), is 2-for-his-last-18 (.111) and is slugging a mighty .336 on the season ...
* Fellow light-hitting catcher Brook Fordyce just had his 8-game hitting streak snapped ...
* Amazingly, Deivi Cruz has been hot, going seven-for-his-last-15 (.467) ... He has nine home runs (compared to seven all last season), with only three walks and 15 strikeouts in 215 at-bats ... Jeff Conine said that Cruz has stepped in admirably for Mike Bordick: "[Bordick] was one of my better friends on the team and steady as they come at shortstop, so sure, I was a little disappointed. That being said, though, Deivi's been outstanding. We couldn't be happier with the defence at shortstop this year." ...
* Jorge Julio has not been dominant in the closer role this season ... His problem has been control, both within and outside of the strike zone ... Although he's only surrendered one homer, he's given up 26 hits and 16 walks in just over 26 innings pitched ...
* After his lights-out 2002, Buddy Groom has diminished his trade value with some shaky outings ... He recently went through a stretch of 5 multi-run appearances out of 10 ... Opponents are batting .267 off him, after he started the season with 11 scoreless outings and a .105 opposing average ... There's no significant lefty/righty split, either ... Interestingly, Mike Hargrove left Groom in to face Richie Sexson -- because the righthanded Sexson's power numbers are significantly lower against lefties ... Groom got the K ...
* Rick Bauer got sent back to the Ottawa Lynx with the return of Rodrigo Lopez from the disabled list on Sunday ... Bauer accepted his demotion: "I've just been really inconsistent" ... Travis Driskill beat out Bauer for the mop-up job with a strong outing on Thursday ... "I'm here. That's the best thing I can say," said a relieved Driskill, whose happiness was tempered with sympathy for his close friend Bauer ... Meanwhile, Bauer finally gets a chance to start: "I always wanted to be a starter. Too bad it's the wrong place" ...
* Old friend Pat Hentgen has apparently been demoted to long relief, although he hasn't come out of the 'pen since April ... Rodrigo Lopez took his last scheduled start ...
* Bench coach Sam Perlozzo attended his mother's funeral on Sunday, and may not be back tonight ...
* Jerry Hairston Jr. won't be back until around the All-Star break with a fractured foot ...
* Marty Cordova is on the 60-day DL after extensive surgery to remove bone chips from his shoulder ...
* For Father's Day, Hargrove got an offer from his youngest daughter, Shelly, to be taken to dinner ... "I'll be paying for it," grumbled Hargrove ...
* What's Cal Jr. up to these days, you ask? ... He's the proud owner of the Low-A Aberdeen IronBirds, who play at 6,000-seat Ripken Stadium ... The team's average attendance in his first season: 6,104 -- and walk-up tickets will once again not be available this season ... Adam Loewen is expected to start what could be an excellent Orioles career with the IronBirds ... Next project for Cal: Expanding the scope of the Cal Ripken World Series for 12-year-olds ... Plans include a 15-team tournament in Aberdeen, with 10 American and 5 international teams ... The best part for the kids? Construction is underway on a Little-League-size replica of Camden Yards ... He hasn't picked a contractor for the warehouse yet -- seriously! ... Said Cal: "We've spent a lot of money changing the stadium for the little guys" ...

Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH

4 B Roberts
8 Matos
7 Mora
3 Conine
9 Gibbons
5 Batista
DH Surhoff
6 Cruz
2 Fordyce

vs. RH

4 B Roberts
8 Matos
9/7/6 Mora
3 Conine
9/DH Gibbons
5 Batista
7/DH Surhoff
6 Cruz/DH Segui
2 Fordyce/Gil

Pitching Probables

Tuesday: LH Daal vs. Halladay
Wednesday: RH Helling vs. Escobar
Thursday: RH Ponson vs. Hendrickson

Bullpen Usage

Long: Driskill R, Hentgen R
Short: W Roberts R, Ryan L
Setup: Groom L, Ligtenberg R
Closer: Julio R

Posted by Mike D on Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 02:30 AM EDT.

Advance Scout: Orioles, June 17-19 | 33 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_Darryl - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#99843) #

http://www.bluejayway.ca
Another new member of the bullpen for the Orioles series. Jays signed Juan Acevedo today

Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#99844) #

http://economics.about.com
And then there's Melvin Mora... Yeah, I was probably also one of the guys who guffawed when some "sucker" wound up with him in the 19th round of the rotisserie draft.

That's Mr. Sucker to you! HA HA!

Another new member of the bullpen for the Orioles series. Jays signed Juan Acevedo today.

Really? What is the team going to do with all these waiver wire pickups (Davis, Acevedo, and Service).

I'd like to see some type of American Gladiators style competition for the last couple spots in the pen. Put it in the Skydome or the ACC during an off day. I know I'd buy a few tickets.

Or maybe they can just come over to my house and play . I don't think that would be as exciting for the kiddies, tho.

Mike

Reply to This ]

Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#99845) #

http://economics.about.com

The last paragraph should have read:

Or maybe they can just come over to my house and play American Gladiators for the NES. I don't think that would be as exciting for the kiddies, tho.

Mike

_Cristian - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#99846) #

Acevedo will be a good pickup for the Jays if he can manage to ruin Roger Clemens' day a few more times this season.

_Lefty - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#99847) #

Going into the season the Yankee's rated out Acevedo higher than Osuna. I figured they must know something I didn't cuz I had and still have Osuna higher than him.
But Aceveda did have a very good year last season with the Tigers and in pressure situations. I think Tosca should put peg him just below Lopez for now and see how he works out.
However, I am wondering if the Jays picked him up in case of Pollitte imploding.
Anyway its going to take a while to sort out this mess of relievers. If one or even two can take control of their situation the Jays may have solved their problems.
Now a number 4 starter please JP.

_Mick - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#99848) #

Minor hijack:
I rarely read Jayson Stark because ... well, because it's painful ... but today marks what I believe to tbe the first Huck Flener sighting of the 2003 calendar year.

Very exciting.

_Mick - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#99849) #

... Ponson will be a challenge in the shadows of Thursday's 3:00 matinee ...

Well, considering ...
"Baltimore pitcher Sidney Ponson ... missed a game last [month]to go home to Aruba, along with Detroit's Eugene Kingsale and L.A.'s Calvin Maduro. They were honored by their country, knighted by the queen of the Netherlands. Aruba is a dependency of the Netherlands."

So matinee or not, this is clearly a knight game. Oh, for an Orioles/Expos twinbill featuring Sidney and Zach -- a true Day/Knight doubleheader.

_Cristian - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#99850) #

Mick,

For someone who doesn't read Jayson Stark, you seem to have his writing style down pat.

"So matinee or not, this is clearly a knight game. Oh, for an Orioles/Expos twinbill featuring Sidney and Zach -- a true Day/Knight doubleheader"

robertdudek - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#99851) #

"And then there's Melvin Mora. There have been naysayers posting here at the Box, but I stand by the following: Mora has played like an All-Star, he will be an All-Star, and he should be an All-Star.

Recently I watched a bit of the 1984 All-Star Game on ESPN Classic Canada. Along with names that will ring through baseball history (Brett, Valenzuela, Morris among them) was a less familiar one - Jerry Mumphrey.

I have no idea what kind of half-season Mumphrey had in 1984, but I'll wager that in 10 years we will regard Melvim Mora as this year's Jerry Mumphrey. He's a good player, but not an All-Star.

...

Cal Ripken might end up having more influence on the game of baseball (taking playing career and retirement) than anyone since Jackie Robinson.

Gitz - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#99852) #

Ah, the 1984 all-star game, where Charlie Lea surrended a home run to George Brett, where Dave Winfield took a .370 average into the break, and where the announcers mentioned, 194 times, the fog and wind at Candlestick Park. If memory serves, the final score was 3-1, or perhaps 3-2, with the AL continuing its short winning streak, their previous long losing streak of unknown length having ended the year before thanks in part to Fred Lynn's grand salami against Atlee Hammaker.

As usual, I have a story to match the thread: I went to the all-star workout in 1984 (always better than the game; I went to the 1987 workout when the game was at the Oakland Coliseum, and that game was a 2-0 extra-inning yawner), and was able to see the 1984 U.S. olympic team, which featured, among others, Mark McGwire, Jim Abbott, Shane Mack, and the immortal Sid Aikens. Which player, out of those four, do you think I managed to get an autograph from?

Coach - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#99853) #

Give me the 6'6", 250-pound Service in the steel cage match over the pipe-cleaner-thin Davis and Acevedo, who wears even bigger pants than I do.

Several guys are auditioning all the time on this pitching staff, and why not? The main reason Thurman and Smith were sent back down is that the Jays would prefer that they develop as starters in AAA, and when both Hendrickson and Davis earned reprieves, they weren't needed in Toronto after all. Experienced short men like Service and Acevedo are certainly worth trying; it's another coup for J.P. if either succeeds.

Jeff Tam and Tanyon Sturtze are being challenged to step up by the mere presence of the new guys; I had just about given up on Sturtze until his fine effort the other day. Now, I'd have him standing by as the long man whenever the lefties start. When Tosca needs a strikeout or popup in the sixth or seventh, he can make a Service call; if it's a DP grounder he wants, Tam's his man. Acevedo, if he pitches like he can, will ease the workload for Lopez and is a potential insurance policy for Politte. Once they've determined who should be odd man out among the many bullpen righties, maybe they'll add another lefty to go with Miller, who is currently being used only on days with a "y" in them.

the roly-poly Aruban

Ponson is a fun-loving, immature kid whose work ethic always left a lot to be desired, something like Bad Kelvim. This year, he's grown up a little and figured some things out, something like Good Kelvim. I don't think either one is ever going to achieve Maddux-in-his-prime consistency, but I had written both off and recently, they've surprised me.

Gitz - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#99854) #

Mick matching the style of Jayson Stark? Say it isn't so! If anyone ever compares me to Gammons, I'm retiring -- which brings up the subsequent issue of whether a writer published in an ESPN fantasy forum and in a small, useless business magazine can rightly be considred "employed" or, perhaps, a writer.

Gitz - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#99855) #

Acevedo has earned a permanent spot in my Hall of Wrath. He is the single reason why my fantasy squad's pitching numbers, which has Halladay, Mulder, and Zito as anchors, are mediocre. He didn't pitch many innings, but oh boy, were the ones he pitched remarkably pungeant, like an Al Jolson corpse, or any other corpse for that matter.

_John N. - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#99856) #

Aquilino Lopez has moved into 18th place on BP's "Top 30 Major League Relievers" as ranked by ARP.

Although this has absolutely no practical significance, it's been a long, long time since a Blue Jay appeared on that list.

_Mick - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#99857) #

Cristian, there's simply no reason to resort to flat-out insults like that. (Although, that's sort of my point ... if I can write something off the top of my head in 90 seconds -- half of which was Googling for the knighthood information -- that a Proven Veteran Columnist gets paid the big dough to ruminate on twice a week ... yeah.)

Gitz, until Gammons stops incessantly quoting bands nobody's ever heard of and demonstrates an ability to riff on James Joyce, you will remain forever the Anti-Gammons.

Mike D - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#99858) #

Mick's use of the word "Google" as a verb reminded me of a joke I saw a stand-up comedian make not too long ago:

"Everyone has an embarrassing story about 'beer goggling,' right? Well, these days plenty of people engage in 'beer Googling,' which means that even when the object of your affection isn't that attractive, you're so drunk that you immediately go home and download their senior thesis off the Internet."

_Jordan - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#99859) #

like an Al Jolson corpse

Begin the thawing of Jim Nabors.

Mike D - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#99860) #

Within the past 24 hours, the Jays have gained a half-game on both Boston and New York without even having to swing a bat!

Devil Rays 11, Yankees 2 (1st game). Final.

_Mick - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#99861) #

Devil Rays 11, Yankees 2 (1st game). Final.
The key stats:
J Weaver (L, 3-6) 5 10 6 6 1 1 2 87-53 5.77

How far has Weaver's star fallen in the past year? If the Fort Worth Star-Telegram is to be believed -- dicey, that -- the Rangers refused a Weaver-for-Urbina deal and are holding out for Brandon Claussen and another player.

_Dr B - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#99862) #

Juan Acevedo. Why??

He's been rubbish this year. His OPS against is .942 which means he has been getting mashed. His peripherals are poor also.

He was good last year (in a pitcher's park mind you). His OPS against was .675, but his peripherals were weak. He struck out only 43 in 74 innings.

Over three years he has a good OPS against of .739, but he strikes out few people and has a K/BB rate of less than 2. Over his career he has struck out very few.

ESPN classifies him as a flyball pitcher. He also doesn't strike many people out. Sounds like Mr Gopherball to me. If he continues pitching like he has this year, then he'll be hands down the worst reliever in the Jays pen (no mean feat).

While I was quite happy to see the Jays take a flyer on Scott Service (who does actually strike people out, and always has). I think Juan Acevedo is likely to be a bust. A low risk bust perhaps, but none of these acquisitions are free. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you still have to pay the rest of his year's salary don't you? (about half a million in Acevedo's case). Wouldn't it be better to keep the money and spend it on someone good?

I hope I'm proved wrong.

Pistol - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#99863) #

Because he cleared waivers I believe the Jays only owe Acevado the minimum salary, prorated over the remainder of the season.

Low risk, but I don't think there's much upside as pointed out well above this post.

_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#99864) #

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you still have to pay the rest of his year's salary don't you? (about half a million in Acevedo's case).

Unless I'm mistaken, the Yanks signed Acevedo for $900K. By releasing him, they were responsible for the full amount. By virtue of signing him, the Jays are only responsible for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary, or 92/162 x $300K, or $170K.

Not sure what happens if the Jays now release him. Are they off free and clear, or do they now remain on the hook for the $170K. I am guessing it's the latter.

Even if Acevedo and Service tank, their presence should at least serve as a wake-up call to scrubs in the pen that their jobs are not safe. Sturtze, Tam, we're looking at you.

And I agree with Coach that it's better to coddle Thurman and Smith if they're deemed to have a future with this team, and throw those without futures to the wolves.

One pressing question: will Acevedo be able to find a hat that fits?

Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#99865) #

http://economics.about.com
I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think the Yankees are off the hook for the 170K the Jays are going to pay him. Does anyone know?

Mike

_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#99866) #

Devil Rays 11, Yankees 2 (1st game). Final.

Weaver's continued misery is Coach's schadenfreude.

The alien has left Sterling Hitchcock's body.

Giambi continues his Delgado imitation.

Mondesi delivers 1 of the team's 4 hits, continuing his season as one of the best Yankee hitters. [sarcasm]So why did we dump him anyway?[/sarcasm]

_Mick - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#99867) #

One pressing question: will Acevedo be able to find a hat that fits?

Oh, sure. As long as it's a Red Sox hat. Wait ... wrong thread ...

_Dr B - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#99868) #

Ok, thanks for the info. If it's only going to cost the Jays 170K then a flyer on Acevedo doesn't seem so bad. The one upside of Acevedo (this season aside) is that he has somehow managed to keep his OPS-against reasonable. I also agree with posters above that lighting a fire under the Tams/Sturtzes of this world is a good idea, and better yet, I like keeping Mike Smith in AAA. I am quite a fan of Mike Smith, but if he is *ever* going to reach his potential he'd be better off with a little more time in the minors.

_A - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#99869) #

I would never sign Acevedo for the 3 or 5 million that the Yankees were paying him, but for the upside that he showed last year, the 900K (stat from ESPN) the Jays are paying him it's well worth the risk involved...It's not like Cliff's coming through for us, Escobar is proving better as a starter than a closer and even if Lopez is a closer at some point in his career that time is not now.

_Jabonoso - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#99870) #

It could be a bit of a stretch, but now we can have a look for that elusive fourth starter in our very own pen with Aquilino and or Polittle. They have been successful starters not long ago, and maybe, just maybe Acevedo only pitches decently in the closer role. Put Service as set up man, and hope that you do not have many save situations ( having 6 runs per game and 4 starters that give you quality starts in and out give you that luxury ) For the post season we will adjust...

_Brent - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#99871) #

Hmm. The Juan Acevedo transaction surprised me a bit. As mentioned somewhere before, Acevedo had ERA+'s of 158, 114, and 118 the past three years respectively. This alone gives me a glimmer of hope that he can be a respectively cheap and worthwhile addition to the ballclub. However, there are a few zits that stick out. His K/BB ratios are not too pretty (although this year it sits at a respectable 1.9) and he's simply given up too many hits. To tell you the truth, I'd like to look at his DIPS info before I call the second point a "zit". Does anyone have a link for current DIPS?

_the shadow - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#99872) #

Senor Tosca will be rubbing his hands in glee with all these arms in the BP to play with, by the way where does Walker fit in all this

_Spicol - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#99873) #

I would never sign Acevedo for the 3 or 5 million that the Yankees were paying him, but for the upside that he showed last year, the 900K (stat from ESPN) the Jays are paying him it's well worth the risk involved

Yuh? The Yankees were paying him $900K. The Jays will pay him a prorated portion of the major league minimum, or about $170K. The Yanks are on the hook for the rest.

_Jurgen - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#99874) #

you're so drunk that you immediately go home and download their senior thesis off the Internet

Mike, who was the comedian?

Mike D - Wednesday, June 18 2003 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#99875) #

Not sure of the spelling, Jurgen, but I think his name is Andres du Bouchet. He's got a weekly gig here in New York.

Advance Scout: Orioles, June 17-19 | 33 comments | Create New Account

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