"the club will hasten our return to the days when the Jays were the No. 1 show in this town."

As much as I'd like this to be true, it ain't ever gonna happen

Peter Gammons' rumours have indeed proven about as reliable as his hockey counterpart, Al "My Sources Have No Reason To Lie" Strachan.

Nevertheless, I've been working hard lately, so I'm going to indulge a bit -- and give myself the next 24 hours to slap on the blinders and think about Schilling rumours.

Curt Schilling. Great googly moogly!

Yep, Arizona needs to get younger and cheaper. Scott Cassidy for Schilling...

I wish there were Johan Santana rumours.

As much as I'd like this to be true, it ain't ever gonna happen

Heh... no reason lightning can't strike twice.

Once the Leafs have a couple of bad seasons in a row, the bandwagoneers will go crashing off so fast they'll tilt the earth off its axis.

I wish there were Johan Santana rumours.

Johan Santana was seen holding hands with Mike Piazza....

(Sorry, couldn't resist :-) )

http://www.baseballblog.blogspot.com
I wish there were Johan Santana rumours.

NO!

This definatly needs to be taken with a grain of salt as Schilling has been rumored to be headed to a ton of teams. The Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Atlanta, Astros and even the Cards have all been said to be potential destinations of Schilling. Unfortunaly I dont remember where I heard some of these else I'd post links or some such. Every contender that has a bit of change is rumored to be getting Schilling. I think he even starts some of these just to see what people think of it. It would be awesome for the Jays to get their hands on him but I dont think any east contender would allow it to happen. He would certainly solve the problem of the fifth starter though.

It would be awesome for the Jays to get their hands on him but I dont think any east contender would allow it to happen.

Could they stop it? The other contenders have much more money, but certainly they don't have a lot of prospects to ship off. Fossum or Nick Johnson both have injury problems which must surely set there trade values plummetting. Not sure what the Jays really have to offer that they'd be willing to give up actually, as their best prospects are in the lower levels. If Schilling is traded, it should take a mighty amount, though given that they discarded Byung-Hyun Kim for surprisingly little. Schilling will have a ton of suitors if and when he is made available.

Who knew it was so easy to make Aaron cry? Why not some Morneau and Mauer rumours while we're at it?

I heard that the Twins were looking to add a reliable veteran second baseman and had offered Bobby Kielty for Pokey Reese...

In the upper levels of the minor the Jays seem only to have people as filler or people who are untouchable. There doesnt seem to be much trade bait (although I dont know as much about the Jays minor league system as I should). You're right in that most of the top level talent seems to be in either A or AA and I wouldnt want Ricciardi to give up 4 or 5 major talents that will help in a few years for two years of Schilling now. Yes, it would certainly make the Jays a much stronger team, a 1000 run offense with two bonafide aces. Both the Yanks and the Sox dont have upper-tier prospects to trade for him but not a whole lot of organizations do. Most of the teams that have upper-level prospects (for example: the Indians) are rebuilding and wouldnt trade those people away anyways. If Schilling is traded they might be forced into taking some lesser prospects.

A possibility would be the Giants. They have Ainsworth, Williams, Foppert and Bonser. They might be willing to trade 2 of those for Schilling and solidify their chances for the playoffs.

I'd give more for Santana than for Schilling. This would allow the Jays to improve for this year and for the future. Would Santana - Orlando Hudson be wildy unrealistic? It seems like the Twins undervalue Santana, given that they don't let him start. Maybe this is just their philosophy for young pitchers. Anyways, as much as I'd miss the O-Dog I do like the thought of Santana in the rotation, an outfield of Stewart - Wells - Johnson, Cat at second. Doesn't mortgage the future, doesn't hurt the offence this year, doesn't have budget problems. And there are plenty of alternatives if Johnson should come crashing back to earth.

Ben,

Guys who I would consider to fall somewhere between "filler" and "untouchable," all of whom made Jordan's recent list of prospects:

1. Kevin Cash, AAA Syracuse.

A 25 year old catcher who turns 26 in December. Cash has a stellar defensive rep, but is hitting .256/.309/.366 in his second tour of duty in Syracuse. Last time around, he showed better power and plate discipline but with a lower batting average, compiling a .220/.299/.424 line in 236 AB. His career numbers entering 2003 were .260/.342/.461.

2. Simon Pond, AAA Syracuse.

I'm not sure if Pond would have any value on the trade market. A 26 year old third baseman who turns 27 in October, Pond has a terrible defensive reputation and was hitting .338/.440/.513 in New Haven before being promoted to Syracuse last week. Last year, he hit .284/.357/.479 in A Dunedin; I won't print his career numbers, because they're dragged down by a bunch of terrible seasons in his late teens and early twenties.

3. Jayson Werth, nomad.

A good defensive outfielder who can also catch (hey, maybe he can be taught to play third base too!), Werth hit .257/.354/.445 last year in Syracuse at the age of 23; he turn 24 last month. He's bounced around this year between Dunedin (on rehab), Syracuse, and Toronto, and hasn't really compiled a lot of at-bats anywhere.

Werth is the first of many on this list who has the lustre of a former first-round draft pick.

3. John-Ford Griffin, AA New Haven.

A 23 year old OF/1B who turns 24 in November. Griffin has a poor defensive reputation and is hitting .262/.335/.462 this year; his career line entering 2003 was .291/.375/.430.

4. Gabe Gross, AA New Haven.

Another 23 year old outfielder who turns 24 this October. Gross has a better defensive rep than Griffin and is hitting .294/.402/.452. His career line entering 2003 was .253/.350/.414.

All of the last three guys bring something to the table but are a little old to be considered top prospects considering that their stats are only modestly impressive.

5. Dominic Rich, AA New Haven.

A 23 year old second baseman who turns 24 in August, Rich has been bothered by injuries this year and is hitting .216/.298/.275. His career line entering 2003 was .299/.389/.396.

Rich probably isn't worth trading right now, as his value may never be lower, but he doesn't play shortstop (as far as I know) and he hasn't shown enough power to make Orlando Hudson worry about his job security.

6. Cameron Reimers, AA New Haven.

A 24 year old right-hander who turns 25 in September. Reimers is having by far the best year of his career (75.1 IP, 68 H, 2 HR, 22 BB, 43 K, 2.99 ERA). Entering 2003 his career line was 484 IP, 546 H, 50 HR, 116 BB, 297 K, 4.46 ERA.

Every year the Jays seem to have a guy like this who posts a nice ERA in AA despite not really being a very good pitcher. I suppose other teams are probably too smart to want them, so maybe Reimers counts as filler after all.

7. Dave Gassner, AA New Haven.

A 24 year old lefty who turns 25 in December, Gassner is a better prospect than Reimers but is still no great shakes. He's compiled a 69.2 IP, 67 H, 7 HR, 19 BB, 45 K, 3.23 ERA line so far this year. His career line entering 2003 was 250 IP, 244 H, 46 BB, 170 K, 3.28 ERA.

Gassner's 2003 ratios are almost the same as Vinnie Chulk's 2002 ratios, and Chulk has cratered this year in Syracuse. Again, I don't know if Gassner has any trade value, but if he does, I'd be selling.

I can't be bothered to go through the low minors in detail. As far as I can see there isn't a single good hitter in Charleston, although Miguel Negron, Maikel Jova, and Rodney Medina have been adequate. Out of the good pitching prospects in Dunedin and Charleston, I would be most willing to trade DJ Hanson and Jesse Harper (surprise).

However, here's one more guy I'd willingly deal if the right offer came along:

8. Russ Adams, A Dunedin.

Yeah, you heard that right. I'll spare you a repeat of my Russ Adams diatribe (post 9 and below), but suffice it to say that I'd happily flip him for a three-month rental of a good pitcher if the Jays are still in the thick of things.

By process of elimination, I think the "untouchables" are Thurman (only because he's ready to pitch middle relief), Arnold, Quiroz, Rios, Bush, McGowan, League, Perkins, Pleiness, and Nin, although no one is really "untouchable." (Did I forget anyone?) I'm quite confident in JP's ability to fill holes in the lineup -- what did he lose in return for Hinske, Cat, Myers, and Wilson? -- but his track record on acquiring pitchers is mixed, so I think they need to be developed from within. Quiroz and Rios are the youngest hitters for their leagues who are actually having good seasons, which is why I'd make an exception for them.

By the way, does anyone know what's up with Chad Ricketts? Is he recovering from Tommy John, or did he get released?

John

http://www.nashuapride.com/roster/player19.asp
Chad Ricketts is playing in the independent Atlantic League, for the Nashua Pride - the homepage link is his player page. He has given up 7 hits and walked 4 in 3.2 innings. And yes, he had Tommy John surgery last year.

Thanks, C.R. I'm sorry to hear that the Jays released him; he looked like a decent back-of-the-bullpen guy when they got him in the ill-fated Prokopec deal. I guess the economics of baseball dictate that you don't wait around for a minor-league vet to recover from TJ.

I suppose that the Jays could flip a few grade-C prospects for a starting pitcher. I'd be willing to bundle Cash, Pond, Werth and maybe Rich into a package. At some point, the Jays will have to make room on the 40-man roster for some of their younger prospects, and would risk losing them anyway.

I assume that pitchers such as Schilling would lose interest in the Jays as soon as the bats start to cool off. (Of course, the bats might not cool off... time to adjust my rose-coloured glasses again...)

The situation Schilling was in when he was traded from Philly to Arizona in 2000 is almost identical to the one he's in now: 1.5 years left on his contract, compensated relatively cheaply for a star pitcher ($10M this season and $12M next with much of it deferred), injured slightly during the season and will the ability to demand a trade after the season if traded, as a veteran in the middle of the multi-year contract. Then, like today, he came from a team trying to jettison salary. The difference now, of course, is that he's 3 years older.

That 2000 trade cost Zona Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vincente Padilla and Nelson Figeroa.

Lee was a disappointment for the DBacks. Still young, but lost most of his lustre in the seasons following his mildly successful 1998 rookie year. Daal wasn't much either, he had a 7.22 ERA in 96 IP at the time of the trade. Padilla was in the pen for Arizona and at 22, is the only one in the deal who could have truly been labelled a prospect. Figeroa was a 26 year old rookie, who had pretty good results in the minors but wasn't ever thought of as much more than a #3 or #4 starter. He hasn't even amounted to that, but that was the thinking at the time.

To get to the point...it didn't take much to get Schilling then and it wouldn't even take that to get Schilling today. I see no reason why Toronto couldn't grab him without affecting the long term plan. Perhaps a Reed Johnson or Jayson Werth with a Mark Hendrickson and a B-prospect like Markwell or Bowles would get it done.

The crux of it would be if Curt were willing to waive his right to demand a trade at the end of the season.

Schilling...what a name thrown out there. It is fun to dream. I think it's a pretty safe bet that they Yanks and the BoSox won't get him. One team I would worry about: Oakland. They always land one of the bigger names on the market, and they always have a bunch of talent to throw around. Beane is not afraid to throw talent around because he has oodles of it, and if the A's stay 6 back of the M's as they are now, Schilling will be that "4th" starter. They never should have given up Lidle, he was one of their main men in July/August/Sept when they get red-hot. Having three pitchers instead of four this year could prevent them from having one of their patented runs. And Beane always makes his move in mid-July. Let's hope J.P. can outdo his mentor.

My idea for a proposed trade breaks down along Spicol's lines, but I the Jays might have to be a tad more generous; maybe a Cash or Whittaker instead of Bowles/Markwell, or maybe a Thurman instead of Hendrickson.

"Would Santana - Orlando Hudson be wildy unrealistic?"

Probably. I think despite the Twins handeling of Santana they do indeed understand how good a pitcher he is and would be very reluctant to trade him. The Twins do need an upgrade at 2B though, and Hudson is cheaper and they'd be able to hold onto him longer than a Vidro or Alomar. He isn't as good nor ever will be as good as Vidro, but he swings a better bat than Alomar does at this point. But from the Twins track record my guess is Luis Rivas will still be at 2B come October. They could also use and upgrade a SS.

One team I would worry about: Oakland.

They do have the resources but are more likely to pick up offense (they are 10th in runs scored) than pitching (2nd in ERA). They really need to ditch Scott Hatteberg.

As for Mike D's post, I plead for JP to not touch the catchers. Cash is a very valuable asset and to trade while his value is low wouldn't be smart. I think highly of Whittaker and want to see what he turns in to. He likely has the best bat of the 3 catching prospects Toronto has (yes, I've seen Quiroz' stats this year...just wait) and he's the insurance in case Cash doesn't turn it around.

If you look at the DBacks roster, they have a bunch of 'filler' on the 25 man roster right now. If they were to trade Schilling, I would imagine that they would want some of the Blue Jays cheap major league ready players. The DBacks seem to fill holes through trades and free agent signings. It's rare that they choose to promote from within so I doubt they would want any Single A arms no matter how promising the arms may be. Of course, their money troubles dictate that they may need a change in philosophy soon. I think for Schilling the DBacks would ask for players along the VWells and O-Dog mold.

As for Oakland, the way to beat them is to not wait for the trade deadline. Oakland doesn't have the money to take on expensive players this early in the season and I doubt that Arizona would swing a deal where they cover a portion of Schilling's salary no matter how nice the Oakland prospect package happens to be. Although Rogers claims to be losing millions every year, I think that they could flex some financial muscle in this situation.

IIRC Schilling wasn't near the pitcher he was now when he was traded to the Snakes. Plus Lee was still pretty young so he was still a top prospect at that point so the package the Phils got was pretty good, it just didn't work out (which is typically the case when stars get traded).

Of course the trading landscape is a lot different today.

But even if the Jays wanted Schilling and there was a package in place do you really think the Jays would shell out about $5 million for the rest of this year? I could see SOME payroll being added, but not $5 million.

I imagine that the Jays ticket revenues are in excess of what they budgeted. It'd be nice if they used that 'found money' to improve the team.

Schilling may have felt comfortable with the end of the 2000 season with Buck Showalter's coaching staff - guys like Butterfield, Tosca, and Patterson were, I believe, a part of that staff. So perhaps there is a level of trust. Maybe Schilling isn't a big fan of Brenly? I don't know.

Or Schilling wants to pad his win totals with a fat offense and he's not getting that anymore in Arizona.

That being said, I'm with Coach - I can't see a trade happening. Nothing that big has happened with the Blue Jays since Roger Clemens. And I still can't believe that happened. I mean, it's like the Expos getting a big name pitcher in June or something and we know that has not and never will happen...

John, the acquisition of Aaron Hill, a similar player with more pop, does make Adams a potential trade chip, but I think the Jays want to play both those hands as long as they can. Likewise, the development of Quiroz (and Whittaker's bat) makes Cash seem expendable for the right price, but young catchers with big-league potential are keepers.

Spicol, that's a plausible scenario and excellent comparison to the last time this happened, but Schilling rumours are just an interesting diversion. Apart from trying to draw another bidder into the auction, there could be some truth to his interest in Toronto. You know he'd like the run support, with at least a chance for another ring, and there may also be a Roy Halladay connection. Last summer, Curt gave Doc plenty of advice he learned the hard way, about self-discipline and other required elements of greatness. If that mentorship has developed into a friendship, it could explain the "news" Gammons reported.

Of course, the D-Backs are under no obligation to trade him, and even if they get an acceptable offer from a team he likes, Schilling might scuttle it by insisting on a lucrative extension. If he prefers to test the free agent waters in 2005, waives his right to demand a trade after this season, and the Jays are really his first choice of where to play out his current contract, there's still the slight problem for J.P. of finding $3-4 million to pay him for August and September, plus $12 million for 2004. It's all highly unlikely, but it is fun to ponder.

I mean, it's like the Expos getting a big name pitcher in June or something and we know that has not and never will happen...

Ahem.

Don't feel slighted, Mark. Elijah was making a Bartolo Colon joke, that's all.

Besides, you were a great acquisition for the 'Spos -- it's not like Montreal gave anything up to get you...right?

http://economics.about.com
"the club will hasten our return to the days when the Jays were the No. 1 show in this town."

As much as I'd like this to be true, it ain't ever gonna happen.

Wait until the Leafs get really old and miss the playoffs for a couple years in a row. People will jump off the bandwagon so fast you'll think Harold Ballard still owned the team.

Toronto sports fans are incredibly fickle and will jump from one bandwagon to another really quickly. So enjoy getting cheap and easy Jays tickets while you can.. if they make the playoffs next year, it's going to be a lot more difficult.

Mike

I'm with the people who say it's highly unlikely it would happen...BUT, if it would, How about O-dog or Adams ( Calangelo's choice, basically) with Werth or Thurman?

The only way I can see the Jays getting Schilling would be to somehow send Delgado and his salary to the Diamondbacks, but without Schilling or a healthy Johnson in Arizona there's no way Carlos OKs that deal.

If Toronto decides to keep rebuilding, I wonder if they can deal with Kansas City? Everybody seems to think it's a foregone conclusion KC will trade Beltran, but they're still close to Minnesota, and could conceivably make a push. Stewart and/or Escobar and/or Lidle would be huge additions. In return, they've got good young pitchers at the MLB level, and they've got Grienke in AA.

IIRC Schilling wasn't near the pitcher he was now when he was traded to the Snakes. Plus Lee was still pretty young so he was still a top prospect at that point

Schilling had been pretty amazing since 1997, putting up ERA+ numbers of of 143, 134 and 130 in the full seasons before he was traded. In 2000, he was at 124, 154 in 2001 and 136 last year. Save for 2001, he's the same pitcher he's been since he was 29. It was considered a pretty huge deal at the time.

Lee was thoroughly sucky. After 269/346/429 in his rookie season, he hit 237/337/363 (an 80 OPS+) in 375 sophmore AB and 232/308/397 (75 OPS+) for Zona before the trade. For a 1B in a neutral park, that's nothing short of horrible. They had Colbrunn and Durazo at the time...Arizona was quite glad to get rid of him.

But even if the Jays wanted Schilling and there was a package in place do you really think the Jays would shell out about $5 million for the rest of this year? I could see SOME payroll being added, but not $5 million.

You're right, this could be a sticking point. But as far as I know, $5M of this year's salary is deferred. Schilling is likely out until July so if he were traded near the deadline, it would be a 2-month cost of about $1.7M. There is that much room left in the budget. If you'll remember to the spring, JP talked about not spending the money saved on Shannon Stewart (about $1M) in case something came up at the deadline. Here's something. And I'm sure Ted could scrape up another $700K if it means a playoff push sooner than expected.

ALSO, the Jays could afford him next year since Mondesi would be off the books, Stewart and Lidle and perhaps Escobar are likely gone. If Cat is resigned, he'll be in line for a raise and arb cases will be expensive but there should be a lot left.

I admit, that this is unlikely to happen. But it would work. JP just has to leverage the relationship Curt already has with Gil Patterson and Brian Butterfield, two former Arizona coaches he has praised publicly.

Stewart/Lidle/O-Dog for Jeremy Affeldt would be wonderful I think. I really like the O-Dog, but we need pithcing help for now and for the future more than a decent second bagger. Should have made this trade when , it was speculated, they could have in the offseason.

Trading the O-Dog would close one hole by opening another. He's young, he hustles, he's playing well, and the Jays don't have anybody who can replace him right away. (Adams/Hill/Rich aren't going to be ready for another couple of years.)

If Hudson was in his prime right now, I'd consider moving him, but he's still getting better.

JP just has to leverage the relationship Curt already has with Gil Patterson and Brian Butterfield, two former Arizona coaches he has praised publicly, in order to get Curt to waive his trade rights.

Note to self: Start proofreading or else complete your thoughts, one or the other.

http://economics.about.com
Trading the O-Dog would close one hole by opening another. He's young, he hustles, he's playing well, and the Jays don't have anybody who can replace him right away. (Adams/Hill/Rich aren't going to be ready for another couple of years.)

I agree. I really don't see the need for the Jays to trade anyone on the big league roster right now.

Generally whenever you feel like you have to make a trade you end up getting hosed. I honestly think the Jays should standpat until near the deadline. If they're still in the thick of it then, maybe they could trade for a #3 type starter if they only have to give up a B/C level prospect. Sort of like the Chuck Finley trade at the last deadline.

If the Jays aren't in it, I'd just stand pat.. unless someone overwhelms you with an offer, which as I stated before I feel is really unlikely to happen.

Mike

Regarding Russ Adams, it's true that he hasn't been tearing up the Florida State League -- but he is putting up solid numbers, just nothing like what Rios, Quiroz, Gross, et al are doing a level higher in New Haven. At .281/.379/.391, with a 37/26 BB/K ratio and a 9/2 SB/CS rate, Adams is not struggling in the least. Not much power, but he was never projected to have much anyway.

I would counsel patience with Adams, and definitely counsel hanging on to him, for two reasons:

1. He's still very new to the pro game. Even college players need to adjust to the minor leagues; witness Gabe Gross's struggles last season at Knoxville. Adams spent only 30 games at Auburn (short-season NY-Penn) last year before skipping Charleston to go all the way to the Florida State League, which is a pitchers' league by and large. He impressed the hell out of the big-league players and coaches in spring training, and those guys don't get fooled easily. As for his defence, which had been concerning me (19 errors in 65 games), I just recently came across this chart put together by Jim Callis of Baseball America (scroll down about halfway), showing numerous top big-league shortstops and their brutal error totals in their first full seasons (check out Jeter's 56). And Adams hasn't made an error in about 15 games now. I'll come out and say that Russ Adams will hit .300, OBP .400, and steal 35 bases in the big leagues by 2006.

2. The Jays are filling in a lot of positions in their minor-league system. I don't just mean fielding positions -- Aaron Hill looks more projectable at shortstop than Adams, who seems destined for second, while Jason Perry is coming along nicely at first, and catching and the outfield are stacked -- but in terms of batting order. The Jays have sluggers, speedsters and big swingers, but they don't have anyone else who projects to be a leadoff guy. Stewart is gone after this year, Catalanotto no later than the end of 2005, if not sooner. Who leads off for the 2006 Jays? In an increasingly talented minor-league system, only Adams shows the combination of hitting, batting eye and speed that marks the truly great top-of-the-order guys. The organization needs Adams to become the player he's capable of being, and they'll give him time to do that. And I doubt JP would deal away his very first first-round selection in any event.

So hang in there with Adams -- he's going to be more than fine.

I just hope if the Jays do add something its a decent arm to the bullpen. Although, bullpen help seems to be as sacred a commodity as starting pitching right now.

Wait until the Leafs get really old and miss the playoffs for a couple years in a row. People will jump off the bandwagon so fast you'll think Harold Ballard still owned the team.

There won't be any playoffs for the Leafs to miss for at least a year if the imminent hockey strike is as messy as expected. Nice timing for the Jays attempts to rebuild the fan base, just as they are starting to win again the cities main attraction will be out of action.

If the Jays can't bring someone of Schilling's caliber aboard the S.S. Run Support, what other pitchers are likely to be available at the deadline?

P.S. I think the Jays offence is in need of a Batter's Box nickname.

I think the Jays offence is in need of a Batter's Box nickname.

The Ontario Power Corporation.

I think the Jays offence is in need of a Batter's Box nickname

Murderers Row North

Super Awesome Run Support, known to the rest of the league as SARS

Ha! Can we just declare Cristian the winner now?

As far as I'm concerned, yes. I laughed out loud for a few seconds on that one.

IIRC Schilling wasn't near the pitcher he was now when he was traded to the Snakes. Plus Lee was still pretty young so he was still a top prospect at that point

Schilling had been pretty amazing since 1997, putting up ERA+ numbers of of 143, 134 and 130 in the full seasons before he was traded. In 2000, he was at 124, 154 in 2001 and 136 last year. Save for 2001, he's the same pitcher he's been since he was 29. It was considered a pretty huge deal at the time.

Lee was thoroughly sucky. After 269/346/429 in his rookie season, he hit 237/337/363 (an 80 OPS+) in 375 sophmore AB and 232/308/397 (75 OPS+) for Zona before the trade. For a 1B in a neutral park, that's nothing short of horrible. They had Colbrunn and Durazo at the time...Arizona was quite glad to get rid of him.

D'oh! That'll teach me to rely on 'IIRC'. I was too lazy to look it up at work. Something about needing to work......

Couple good points - Adams is really the only true leadoff prospect. I didn't think of that when the trade possibility came up.

Also, the Jays have a ton of payroll flexibility next year so they could take on future money if it was to their benefit. IIRC (there I go again.....) only Delgado, Hinske, Wells, and Berg are under contract for next year. Everyone else could not be re-signed or non-tendered.

If the Jays can't bring someone of Schilling's caliber aboard the S.S. Run Support, what other pitchers are likely to be available at the deadline?

Bartolo Colon!

Make it a 3-way
Blue Jays: Stewart to Dodgers; minor prospect to CWS
Dodgers: Prospect(s) to CWS
CWS: Colon to Blue Jays

Little salary added, little future given up...

Hey I think curious george hit a homer with that one!