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Many of Mike's fellow owners endorsed the Moffatt Plan of beating Snellville 11-1 last week, but something happened -- they played the games. The Gashouse Gorillas, still on fire, melted down the Reykjavik Fish Candy 8-3 to move 42 games over .500 and extend their lead to a dozen over my Toronto Walrus. Seems like every week, I win my match, only to lose ground in the standings. I'm not complaining; edging AGF 7-5, while Baird Brain and Billie's Bashers suffered rare defeats, gives me a bit of a cushion in second. Both Mebion Glyndwr and Red Mosquitos are charging into contention, with five teams now bunched within 2.5 games of third in the race to make the championship playoff round.

It's far from over; after 11 weeks, we've reached the midway point of the regular season. 
 #  Team                     W-L-T    Win %   GB
 1  gashouse gorillas       89-37-6   .697    --
 2  Toronto Walrus          77-49-6   .606    12 
 3  Baird Brain             70-53-9   .564    17.5 
 4  AGF                     72-56-4   .561    18 
 5  Billies Bashers         70-55-7   .557    18.5 
 6  Mebion Glyndwr          72-58-2   .553    19 
 7  Red Mosquitos           68-56-8   .545    20 
 8  Springfield Isotopes    62-63-7   .496    26.5 
 9  Nation Builders         62-64-6   .492    27 
10  Chatsworth Halos        61-66-5   .481    28.5 
11  Sub-Urban Shockers      59-64-9   .481    28.5 
12  Jicks Rays              59-65-8   .477    29 
13  Reykjavik Fish Candy    59-66-7   .473    29.5 
14  K-Town Mashers          60-70-2   .462    31 
15  Eastern Shore Birds     59-69-4   .462    31 
16  Hannibals Cannibals     56-69-7   .451    32.5 
17  Moscow Rats             54-70-8   .439    34 
18  Thunderbirds            53-74-5   .420    36.5 
19  Geoffs Grumpy Group     53-75-4   .417    37 
20  Garces_not_on_roids     44-80-8   .364    44
My team had a weird week. We almost always win SV and K/BB, but Mariano Rivera beat my three-closer staff singlehandedly. Matt Morris, who often gets me two wins and great peripherals, was limited to 2/3 of an inning (54.00 ERA) by the dreaded knot beneath the right shoulder blade. However, I had eleven .300 hitters for the week, with eight OBPs over .400 and eight who slugged .600 or better. Ichiro stole more bases than my entire team, so I didn't sweep the offensive categories, but 5-1 was a pleasant surprise. Some might say a fluke -- I'm dreading the moment when the unconscious Deivi Cruz wakes up to discover he's not Honus Wagner.

Does anyone have the skills, time and inclination to do a strength of schedule analysis? I don't, but I'm curious. As occasionally happens in real baseball, maybe the stats will confirm my impressions. Not that there are any easy matchups in this league, it just "feels" like I've faced a lot of the top contenders lately, and this week against Gwyn is no exception. What I really want to know is whether Snellville's second half gets tougher. Go Chatsworth!
Posted by Coach on Monday, June 16 2003 @ 09:28 AM EDT.
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Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#13570) #
http://economics.about.com
Somebody ought to donate a prize if Reykjavik can keep up this incredible pace.

Yeah.. you guys should call it the Robb Nenn award for Bullpen Implosion.

My team was **last** overall in hitting last week. LAST! Normally we're about third or fourth. I've contacted Congressman Billy Tauzin (R-La) to start a congressional committee to look into why my team is throwing games. He hasn't gotten back to me. Damn Republicans.

Mike
[ Reply to This ]
_Scott Lucas / N - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#13574) #
Congratulations to the Nation Builders as the biggest gainers of the week, moving from 9th up to 5th in the overall Roto standings.

5th in the Roto standings, but 9th in the real standings with a losing record. #$*&! Pythagoras!

Anyhoo, I did a strength of schedule analysis for my own benefit a few weeks ago. I'll be happy to do it again and post it here, probably later in the day, after work.

Keep in mind that after 19 weeks, everyone will have the same strength of schedule, as each team will have played every other team once.
[ Reply to This ]
_Spicol - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#13575) #
Keep in mind that after 19 weeks, everyone will have the same strength of schedule, as each team will have played every other team once.

True, but with the turnover on some of these rosters, teams in April are far different than teams in August. I have 11 new players, for example, and I think I'm much better now than then.
[ Reply to This ]
_Jonny German - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#13576) #
BBFL Second Half Strength of Schedule

As usual, Coach's gut feel is not to be taken lightly. Following the mighty Glyn this week, his Walrus have only one matchup remaining against a team currently over .500. In fact, they've got the easiest schedule over the rest of the season, with a current opponent's winning percentage of .462. Mebion is at the other end of the picture at .530, but they should be fine given their strong performance in the Roto standings thus far.

The chart below summarizes the strength of opposition over the rest of the season, over the next three weeks, and the current winning percentage of each team. Let me know if you would like to see the complete details.
					
		Remain	3 Weeks	Current	
1	Toronto	0.462	0.497	0.606	
2	Geoffs	0.477	0.467	0.417	
3	Moscow	0.483	0.458	0.439	
4	Billie	0.485	0.514	0.557	
5	Red Mos	0.486	0.532	0.545	
6	Gashous	0.488	0.514	0.697	
7	Reykjav	0.488	0.472	0.473	
8	Hannib.	0.492	0.448	0.451	
9	K-Town	0.493	0.429	0.462	
10	Eastern	0.494	0.491	0.462	
11	Chatsw.	0.498	0.536	0.481	
12	Thunder	0.500	0.451	0.420	
13	Nation	0.507	0.530	0.492	
14	Baird	0.512	0.539	0.564	
15	Spring.	0.515	0.576	0.496	
16	Sub-Urb	0.521	0.489	0.481	
17	Garces	0.521	0.535	0.364	
18	AGF	0.521	0.467	0.561	
19	Jicks	0.524	0.505	0.477	
20	Mebion	0.530	0.548	0.553
[ Reply to This ]
_R Billie - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#13579) #
Aye...the injuries are taking their toll on the Bashers. Adding to the long term whoas of star players like Schilling and Piazza, Stewart is just now returning while Junior Spivey takes his place on the DL, joining fellow middle infielder Ramon Vasquez.

It looks like Piazza isn't going to be doing much the rest of this year and Schilling may not be back until well after the All-Star break. The hold on a playoff spot is looking quite slippery at the moment.
[ Reply to This ]
Coach - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#13580) #
Keep in mind that after 19 weeks, everyone will have the same strength of schedule, as each team will have played every other team once.

That's far more equitable than, say, the American League.

With regard to keepers, it's not "up to four" -- everyone must keep exactly four, then we pre-rank them on top, so our own keepers are automatically re-selected in the first four rounds of next year's draft. I wish we had decided on five or six, as I'll be throwing some decent players back into the FA pool. If you don't have four obvious keepers, Walrus management will consider 2-for-1 deals near the July 27 deadline. Speaking of trades, if anyone needs SV and an OF bat, I'd package Politte or Baez and your choice of Hunter or Bradley for a reliable starter.
[ Reply to This ]
_Jurgen - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#13581) #
I'd package Politte or Baez and your choice of Hunter or Bradley for a reliable starter.

How about Tomko? He's been the model of reliability.
[ Reply to This ]
_Scott Lucas / N - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#13582) #
I see I've been beaten to the punch re strength of schedule. I think what I'd built was more of an RPI-like index. Maybe I'll redo it and post it if I get around to it today.

RE Kent's comment on four keepers, by coincidence I was mulling over who to keep and was having a very hard time narrowing the list to four. Still, I think four is plenty; it should be tough for owners (especially with good teams) to choose among their best players.

RE Spicol's comment about my comment about strength of schedule being equal after 19 rounds (True, but with the turnover on some of these rosters, teams in April are far different than teams in August. I have 11 new players, for example, and I think I'm much better now than then), you're right, of course, but I was speaking purely in terms of statistical calculations, which are done on the "macro" level of wins and losses, not individuals on rosters.

(The preceding sentence was sponsored by Peter Gammons.)
[ Reply to This ]
_Jonny German - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#13583) #
Sorry to trump you there Scott, when I'm at work I tend to jump on and off the internet quickly, running up my KAP with Ctrl-C and Ctrl-V for both reading and posting. My workplace is disturbingly Dilbertesque. I'd like to see your take, it sounds more involved than my simple averaging of current winning percentages.
[ Reply to This ]
_Jonny German - Monday, June 16 2003 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#13585) #
I'm in the market for an infielder, and I'm offering a selection of quality set-up men: Gabe White, Tim Spooneybarger, Mike Koplove. Jeff DaVanon is also available.
[ Reply to This ]
_Ricks Jays - Tuesday, June 17 2003 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#13586) #
Since everyone is offering players I will throw in Johnson, Stephenson, Alfonseca, Stynes, Cirillo, Lawton, Wayne??? You get the picture, and I'm looking for a 2nd baseman in return. I am also filing a protest, because of the harder schedule I'll have in the second half. With the eighth ranked stats I should be closer to the top! This fantasy baseball is a great game isn't it??
[ Reply to This ]
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