Instant karma's gonna get you. This article (which I lifted from our friends at Fanhome) lauding Jays pitching prospect Vince Perkins ran in yesterday's Charleston Daily Mail. That night, Perkins got rung up like a Walmart sale: 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings (Dick Scott was in the stands; maybe a little stage fright?). That pushed his ERA all the way up to 1.83. No big deal: Vince was overdue for a thumping, and he still struck out 6 in 3 innings. His promotion to Dunedin isn't too far away.
Nonetheless, I think the author of the piece, as well Vince's manager, might be letting their enthusiasm run away with them a tad.
There's a lot to be excited about, of course. Perkins, who won't turn 22 till September, has been tearing up the Sally League and is a consistent presence on Baseball America's Hot Prospects list, a notoriously mercurial ranking of the most dynamic minor-leaguers. He comes across in this interview as well-spoken, intelligent and grounded: he knows where his weak spots are (strike-zone command, natch) and what he has to do to address them. He's in growing control of a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a slider and a changeup, and that's quite a repertoire for someone that young.
Still, I hesitate to say, as his manager does, that Perkins might be ready for New Haven. From Low-A to AA is one helluva jump, perhaps comparable to going from AA to the majors. Even the High-A Florida State League could be a challenge. Vince has had two short-season stints at Auburn in the NY-Penn League, a circuit that's almost as pitcher-friendly as the South Atlantic he's currently dominating. The hitters down there can't touch good breaking stuff, but the hitters in AA surely can. Vince walked 44 batters in 72 innings at Auburn last year (0.61 BB/IP ratio), and though his command has improved, he's still walked 22 in 44 IP this year (in case you're wondering, 27.7% K/BF last year, 35.7% so far this year). He's an excellent prospect, no question, but he's in Low-A Ball, and there's a lot of tougher innings and better hitters ahead of him.
So I don't think there's any need or call to rush him. The Jays are being patient with their youngest pitchers -- Dustin McGowan has spent a year at each level so far, and that likely will continue; Brandon League can expect the same treatment. Perkins will probably be in Dunedin by mid-season, but I'd be quite surprised if he advanced beyond there in '03 and for part of '04. In fact, I'll even go out on a limb and throw out some guesstimate ETAs for some of Toronto's pitching prospects (assuming that injuries won't take their toll, which they certainly will), with their ages on arrival in parentheses:
David Bush -- June 2005 (25)
Jordan De Jong -- June 2005 (26)
Chad Pleiness -- September 2005 (25)
Dustin McGowan -- April 2006 (24)
Vince Perkins -- September 2006 (25)
Brandon League -- April 2007 (24)
Francisco Rosario -- ??
In terms of farm-produced pitchers at the big-league level, Toronto's best hope right now is that Roy Halladay, Jason Arnold and Corey Thurman are key members of the Opening Day 2005 rotation, possibly with Bush and De Jong breaking camp in long and short relief, respectively. Since (with great respect) that's probably not a championship rotation, JP undoubtedly will be looking to acquire at least one more high-level pitching prospect in the near future. Fact is, you can never, not at all, have too much pitching.
Nonetheless, I think the author of the piece, as well Vince's manager, might be letting their enthusiasm run away with them a tad.
There's a lot to be excited about, of course. Perkins, who won't turn 22 till September, has been tearing up the Sally League and is a consistent presence on Baseball America's Hot Prospects list, a notoriously mercurial ranking of the most dynamic minor-leaguers. He comes across in this interview as well-spoken, intelligent and grounded: he knows where his weak spots are (strike-zone command, natch) and what he has to do to address them. He's in growing control of a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a slider and a changeup, and that's quite a repertoire for someone that young.
Still, I hesitate to say, as his manager does, that Perkins might be ready for New Haven. From Low-A to AA is one helluva jump, perhaps comparable to going from AA to the majors. Even the High-A Florida State League could be a challenge. Vince has had two short-season stints at Auburn in the NY-Penn League, a circuit that's almost as pitcher-friendly as the South Atlantic he's currently dominating. The hitters down there can't touch good breaking stuff, but the hitters in AA surely can. Vince walked 44 batters in 72 innings at Auburn last year (0.61 BB/IP ratio), and though his command has improved, he's still walked 22 in 44 IP this year (in case you're wondering, 27.7% K/BF last year, 35.7% so far this year). He's an excellent prospect, no question, but he's in Low-A Ball, and there's a lot of tougher innings and better hitters ahead of him.
So I don't think there's any need or call to rush him. The Jays are being patient with their youngest pitchers -- Dustin McGowan has spent a year at each level so far, and that likely will continue; Brandon League can expect the same treatment. Perkins will probably be in Dunedin by mid-season, but I'd be quite surprised if he advanced beyond there in '03 and for part of '04. In fact, I'll even go out on a limb and throw out some guesstimate ETAs for some of Toronto's pitching prospects (assuming that injuries won't take their toll, which they certainly will), with their ages on arrival in parentheses:
David Bush -- June 2005 (25)
Jordan De Jong -- June 2005 (26)
Chad Pleiness -- September 2005 (25)
Dustin McGowan -- April 2006 (24)
Vince Perkins -- September 2006 (25)
Brandon League -- April 2007 (24)
Francisco Rosario -- ??
In terms of farm-produced pitchers at the big-league level, Toronto's best hope right now is that Roy Halladay, Jason Arnold and Corey Thurman are key members of the Opening Day 2005 rotation, possibly with Bush and De Jong breaking camp in long and short relief, respectively. Since (with great respect) that's probably not a championship rotation, JP undoubtedly will be looking to acquire at least one more high-level pitching prospect in the near future. Fact is, you can never, not at all, have too much pitching.
