I prefer Hendrickson to Davis as a starter, and like both better than Escobar, but any scenario is possible. With the off-day Monday, they could have skipped Sturtze or one of the lefties this week. The main reason they didn't was to set up Doc to open the series at Yankee Stadium May 22, but it's also a vote of confidence in all five starters.

If I was running the Jays (my resume must not have gotten through) I would be taking any and all oppurtunities to showcase Kelvim. I think the best forum for that now is the rotation. Pen (as opposed to pencil) him in a #3 and let him throw until his arm falls off. I agree with Gideon though, in that the kids should fill out the rest.

I'm not in charge of the Jays either (I'm the same age as Theo, I'm qualified......) but I'd go with Hendrickson, Davis and Escobar for the 3-5 spots. Hendrickson and Davis to see if there's anything there for down the road and Escobar to try to see if you can create any trade value (or perhaps to keep as a starter, who knows).

You already know what you'll get out of Sturtze and Walker; nothing great, but won't kill you if they pitch.

Hendrickson and Davis occupy the same ecological niche, as they're both tall lefthanders without overpowering stuff. I don't see either of them as being part of the Next Great Jays Team, so it doesn't really matter how the Jays use them. I rate Davis slightly higher than Lurch, and both of them slightly higher than Sturtze.

I'd put Escobar in the rotation, and make sure that he precedes a rotation anchor who can be counted on to make it into the 7th. When Kelvim goes out there, Tosca will probably have to empty the bullpen to support him. And there's always a chance Kelvim could turn into Super-Kelvim, even if only long enough to fetch a trade for someone more consistent.

The biggest question is: where are the Jays going to find the two, or possibly even three, starters they need to contend? Lidle is likely gone after this season, unless he decides he loves being a #2 and is willing to take a cut to stay here, so Halladay and Arnold are the only upper-level pitchers who are likely to be around in 2005.

Even assuming that one of the C-level starters is good enough to hold a spot in the back end of the rotation, that still leaves two more slots. And Dustin McGowan, Brandon League, etc., etc., aren't likely to make it in time.

The biggest question is: where are the Jays going to find the two, or possibly even three, starters they need to contend?

I made the same point in an earlier thread, and Coach pretty much dismissed my concerns: there will be plenty of pitchers available again this winter with one-year commitments like Lidle and Sturtze

But I think we all agree the difference between Lidle and Sturtze is considerable. I don't think J.P. would have a problem finding more Sturtzes, but getting another Lidle or two, especially when everybody else is trolling for bargains, is going to be difficult.

Let's assume Arnold turns into a good major league pitcher in '04, which despite his minor league numbers is a pretty big assumption. Even so, if the rest of the rotation is filled out with Sturtzes, the Jays will be destined for another third place finish.

When will the then christened Toronto Jays be ready to compete with the big boys? Do we have to wait until '05 after Delgado's contract has expired?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/eqamin.html#toprarp
In 2005 the Jays won't be paying Delgado $20 million +/- so presumably they'd have some money to spend on pitchers.

Also, it looks like they may have a player or two to trade if the New Haven OF and Quiroz continue at their current pace (The Jays have 5 of the top 10 RARPs in the Eastern League so far this year...link on the homepage).

Plus, it's possible to draft a college pitcher this year that'd be ready to produce in 2005 (albeit on a relatively fast track).

I'm not as convinced as most are that Lidle is gone after this season. He's a good, but not great, pitcher. Based on last year's free agent market it seemed that only the top players are getting the big money and the middle free agents were squeezed so I could see Lidle getting a lesser contract like Rogers and Finley saw this year (although age and draft compensation may have also been a factor there). I think he'd be signable for a similar contract to the one he has this season, if not less.

An '04 rotation showcasing Halladay, Lidle, and Arnold has the potential to match up well against most--it's not up to the lofty standards of the A's, but it's probably as good as Minnesota's top three. And if they can solidify the pen, keep the offensive alive, and convince the Commissioner to go back to a balanced schedule, that might be enough to make a serious run at the Wild Card. And if those three plus Wells, Cat, Hinske, Phelps (now at 1B) are still around too, '05 looks awfully good.

Besides, when Stewart and Escobar are gone, and Cat now in LF and one of the kids in RF, wouldn't they have money to sign Lidle to a $20M three year deal? (How much do you think he's worth? Coach speculated he could get as much as $30M for 4 years.)

I still have some hopes that Justin Miller may prove to be an effective major leaguer though I will admit that it is a risky proposition.

I hope the Jays make a play for Lidle because, current success notwithstanding, the current rotation is terribly weak. Here
are the OPS against, IP, K and BB of Sturtze and Hendrickson for 2003
I haven't included Davis numbers because the sample size (for the Jays at least) is even smaller.

Sturtze 877 38IP 19K 19BB

Hendrickson 897 43IP 23K 10BB

If they haven't quite been awful, they've been close. You would probably think Hendrickson has a bit more upside if only for his better control numbers, his inexperience, and his form of late. I have no doubt that the Jays could pick up more pitchers like the two above quite easily, but these are the sort of pitcher you can use to pad out your rotation and the Jays have too many of them. They need some quality and that's much harder to find. Cory Lidle (OPS 704 so far) is a *much* better pitcher than Sturtze or Hendrickson and the Jays should make a play to keep them if possible.

When does Delgado salary finish? Not that I really would like to see Delgado go, but the Jays need pitching more than they need his bat. Would you rather have Lidle or Stewart for that matter? Normally I would say Stewart, but the Jays are *desperate* for pitching. Still, one of Hendrickson, Sturtze, Escobar or Miller might turn in to a good major league pitcher and they'll have a bit more time to prove themselves.

I'd rather have Lidle than Stew if the team resigns Cat to play LF.

The unexpected development of Alexis Rios has put the Jays in a happy position: they now have five young outfielders or outfield prospects (Wells, Werth, Griffin, Gross, Rios). This means, I think, that Stewart will not be back, and that Cat will not be with the team beyond 2004.

J.P. will probably try to bundle Stewart and Escobar as a package for a potential starting prospect or two. I suspect that Rios may also be dealt away, as (a) his development was unexpected, and (b) he's a product of the Ash era.

I can't see the Jays using the Delgado money to sign any free agent pitchers. While I generally don't believe MLB's reported losses, I genuinely think that the Jays are losing money hand over fist, thanks to currency problems, low attendance, and the Jays/Skydome leasing problem. The Jays may have to shave millions off their payroll in order to remain financially viable.

If Rios keeps putting up the numbers he is, he isn't going anywhere. His upside is greater than both Gross and Griffin. If they dismiss his performance based on who drafted him, this team does not deserve to have any success.

If I was to guess who was going to be moved, I would think it would be Griffin. His defense ranks behind both Gross and Rios, and his bat isn't any better than either of them. It's a great problem for a team to have.

I should backtrack a bit - I was probably being unfair to the J.P. regime when I said that Rios was more likely to be traded because he's a product of the Ash era.

However, I think it is true that the new braintrust knows more about Gross and Griffin than they do about Rios, and hadn't included Rios as part of their plans for the future. (If they had, they would not have traded for Griffin - instead, they would have acquired more young pitching.) If Rios keeps hitting .400, they'll probably have to keep him - but, otherwise, they'll go with the players they know.

I agree that it's better to have too many outfield prospects than too few.

Further to the question of who's the odd man out in the rotation, Tanyon Sturtze may want to familiarize himself with the best seats in the bullpen after last night's performance against Tampa. Carlos Tosca, today's Sun reports, is ready to do "make any necessary changes ... to do what's best for our ball club."