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Oh, those pesky Devil Rays.

Tampa has a banged-up lineup that should be contained by the Jays' starters this week -- although all bets are off in Joe Kennedy starts, as far as the Jays are concerned. The cross-body-throwing lefty has been pure Kryptonite to the Blue Jays since he entered the league.

As for the rest of Tampa Bay's pitching staff, the "Tigers Conundrum" applies: Does a weekend against the Tigers soften up a pitching staff before a series against actual big-league hitters, or does it inject a little confidence into the rotation that will help them out against a squad like the Jays? Time will tell.

Though it's far from a foregone conclusion, a sweep will position the Jays above .500 and might start a little buzz around the GTA and the baseball world. Let's hope the Jays keep up their league-leading approach at the dish...

On to the Advance Scout!

* Although the Rays have the Jays' number in St. Petersburg, Tampa is only 12-26 all-time at SkyDome ....
* Killer instinct needed: Five times this season, Tampa Bay has taken games 1 and 2 of a three-game series -- but they have no sweeps ...
* Joe Kennedy, always a thorn in the Jays' sides, got absolutely bombed in his last start against Minnesota: 4-plus innings, 13 hits, 10 runs ... This after a complete-game one-hit shutout of the Tigers. "I went from the best game of my career to my worst...That's very drastic," said the thoughtful young lefthander ...
* Lou Piniella after the Twins' 11-6 romp on Wednesday: "You can't get this type of pitching we're getting from our starters and expect to win anything ... [H]ow many options do we have? They've got to get better." ...
* Rocco Baldelli continues to rip singles and doubles despite his otherworldly 4/36 BB/K rate. He's hitting .349, with 52 hits already ...
* Lightning-fast swing therapy: Former Phillies manager, former Jays bench coach and current Tampa hitting coach Lee Elia sat Carl Crawford out on Tuesday night, and instead worked one-on-one with the left fielder's swing. Crawford has been 7-for-17 (.412) since ...
* Although it was in a losing effort, Dewon Brazelton pitched seven strong innings against the Twins on Thursday -- seven hits, four runs (three earned), and only two walks ... Ron Gardenhire said that he "thought the kid threw the ball very well...Our guys were coming back and saying his ball moves all over the place"... Brazelton's out pitch? A solid changeup ...
* Kyle Lohse described the Tampa hitters as "a free-swinging team" ... Good news for the Jays' poison 'pen ...
* Aubrey Huff is on pace for another good season: He's at 288/362/575, with 10 home runs ... He already has 6 homers in May ...
* Damion Easley is back after suffering a bruised right kneecap -- from Carlos Delgado's face ...
* Yahoos at Tropicana Field cheered lustily for John Rocker's return on Friday night ... But the crowd turned on Rocker after he walked the only two batters he faced ... "As you can see, I'm not in midseason form," said Rocker, who really should never have a microphone in front of him ... For what it's worth, Rocker added that "Maybe I'm a little wiser than I was four, five years ago ... I just see things in a different light than I used to" ...Rocker pitched in the low 90s. He said he needs to be 94-plus to be effective ...
* Junkballing Jim Parque carried a no-hitter into the seventh on Friday. But it was against the Tigers ... Still, six-plus innings with one hit is impressive ... Parque said he wasn't going to get excited until "the ninth with two outs, 0-2 count"... Friday was his first start since coming off the DL for tendonitis in his pitching shoulder ...
* Jason Tyner was called up on Friday and has gone 3-for-8, all on doubles ...
* Opponents are hitting just .198 against closer Lance Carter ...
* Piniella played Javier Valentin instead of the slumping Toby Hall in two of the three Tiger games ... Piniella: "I like the results"...
* Fed up with what he called a lack of "personal discipline," Sweet Lou instituted a "Long Pants To The Ballpark" rule, even at home. Although the Rays adhere to a dress code on the road, many had been arriving at the park in St. Petersburg in shorts and flip-flops ...
* Rey Ordonez was placed on the DL with a left knee sprain ... Antonio Perez was called up to back up Felix Escalona ...
* Jorge Sosa was demoted after being bombed by the Tigers (!) for six runs in an inning and a third on Sunday ... Tampa is expected to call up Jared Sandberg to replace him, despite lousy numbers in AAA Durham ...
* Damian Rolls is out with a fractured thumb, but hopes to return after Tampa's current road trip ...
* Al Martin, Seth McClung and Baldelli are among the Rays to express SARS-related fears ... Baldelli said he was looking forward to touristy destinations, including "that tall needle, whatever it's called...I heard it was a cool place to visit and there's a lot of stuff to go check out ..." But not Piniella: "I'm going to Toronto and enjoy the city as I always do...It's a wonderful city." According to the St. Petersburg Times, Piniella enjoys Toronto restaurants and "Woodbine, a racetrack on the northwestern outskirts of Toronto" ... Baldelli has never been to Canada ...
* Troubled ex-super-prospect Josh Hamilton has declared himself out for the season due to unspecified personal problems ... Hamilton's mother said "he's just taking some personal time, like everyone else" ... Hamilton himself said earlier in the month that professional pressures and family issues were affecting his health, not drug, alcohol or legal problems ... Get well, Josh. Batter's Box is pulling for you ...


Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH

7 Crawford
4 Shumpert
3 Lee
8 Baldelli
9 Huff
DH Valentin/Martin
5 Easley
2 Hall
6 Escalona

vs. RH

9 Tyner / DH Martin
7 Crawford
8 Baldelli
DH/9 Huff
3 Lee
4 Anderson
2 Hall/Valentin
5 Easley
6 Escalona

Pitching Probables

Tuesday: LH Kennedy vs. Sturtze
Wednesday: RH Brazelton vs. Lidle
Thursday: LH Parque vs. Davis

Bullpen Usage

Long: Venafro L, Bierbrodt L
Short: Harper R, Colome R
Setup: Levine R, Rocker L
Closer: Carter R
Advance Scout: Devil Rays, May 13-15 | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Jurgen - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#102297) #
that tall needle, whatever it's called

Hee hee.

More good work, Mike.
_Spicol - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#102298) #
that tall needle, whatever it's called

Isn't it called Mark Hendrickson?
Coach - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#102299) #
The cross-body-throwing lefty has been pure Kryptonite to the Blue Jays

Joe Kennedy is 5-0 against Toronto, 12-22 against everyone else. That's ridiculous. Maybe tonight some of the RH bats will come to life against him. All Sturtze needs to do to win tonight is repeat the solid six innings he tossed against his former mates April 24 (one earned run, six hits, a walk, three strikeouts) and turn it over to the well-rested Toronto bullpen.

I'm not going to predict a sweep, but even two out of three will leave the Jays at 20-21 after a quarter of the season, on a 13-6 roll since bottoming out against these very Rays April 23. Mark Hendrickson was terrific that night (a 7-inning shutout) but gave up a couple of fluke hits in the eighth, and took the loss shortly after Escobar entered the game. Afterward, the tall needle correctly said the team needed a defining moment -- that may have been it.

The inevitable blowup between Rocker and Piniella is going to be fun. If there's a pool, give me May 22 during the Texas series, when the crowd will be all over Rocker.
_Jonny German - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#102300) #
As bad as his BB/K rate is, Baldelli has shown a little improvement. He had 15 Ks before he drew his first walk. 4/21 since then is still a rotten BB/K rate and he's headed for the 200 K neighbourhood, but as long as we're doing straight projections I'll take the ~250 hits. Someone said something similar about Vernon Wells recently - Can you fault the guy for not taking a walk when he's hitting everything in sight? The hardline sabremetric school of thought probably says "Absolutely", but personally I enjoy watching him demonstrate that baseball can't be entirely quantified, packaged, and predicted with precision. Of course I'm also high on him as he's been a needed bright spot as a waiver pickup for the K-Town Mashers of the BBFL.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#102301) #
An interesting Baseball Prospectus article on Baldelli posted at ESPN.
_Jurgen - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#102302) #
RE: PETCO The system is too involved to explain in full here, but it's proven amazingly prescient in projecting the 2003 season so far -- predicting a breakout for Jose Cruz Jr., a collapse for Jeremy Giambi, and continued health woes for Ken Griffey Jr. among other things -- so let's give it a spin.

It hasn't even been two months yet, guys.

I woke up with bit of a stiff neck this morning. Did PETCO predict that too?
_benum - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#102303) #
PETCO is a company that sells stuff for your animal friends (as well as being an infamous thread on Baseball Primer).

PECOTA is the system that is being referenced above.
On that note...what message are you responding to Jurgen? It's not on this thread.
_benum - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#102304) #
Ah...nevermind. Ignore the message above.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#102305) #
Sorry for the hijack here. I'd like to discuss first-pitch swinging.

Because it seemed to me that Josh Phelps was swinging an awful lot on first pitches (and, to my mind, chasing a lot of crap), I did a little digging into some numbers. Now, please bear in mind the obvious huge caveat that goes with small samples.

The numbers below represent what players did when they made contact on an 0-0 pitch: AB on 0-0, all AB, AVG and SLG (I chose AVG over OBP since I didn't want HBP's on 0-0 to be treated in the hitter's favour -- Phelps has been plunked 3 times on 0-0 pitches).

Stewart 26/168, 259/423
Catalanotto 9/134, 333/778
Wells 27/160, 296/519
Delgado 17/130, 412/647
Phelps 27/132, 232/407
Hinske 12/128, 167/250
Hudson 16/103, 500/688
Woodward 14/99, 214/357

Phelps, despite swinging and missing at a lot of 0-0 pitches (more below), still has the highest ratio of AB where he puts an 0-0 pitch into play. That in itself would not be a crime if he were more productive doing so.

The numbers below represent the three different outcomes on 0-0 pitches. I show PA, balls in play, first pitch strike (i.e., 0-1 counts), first pitch ball (i.e., 1-0 counts).

Stewart 184, 26, 75, 83
Catalanotto 141, 9, 74, 58
Wells 170, 27, 72, 71
Delgado 159, 17, 57, 85
Phelps 145, 27, 63, 55
Hinske 142, 12, 65, 65
Hudson 112, 16, 50, 46
Woodward 99, 14
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#102306) #
Damn: had a brain fart and hit the Post button by accident.

Let me finish.

Sorry for the hijack here. I'd like to discuss first-pitch swinging.

Because it seemed to me that Josh Phelps was swinging an awful lot on first pitches (and, to my mind, chasing a lot of crap), I did a little digging into some numbers. Now, please bear in mind the obvious huge caveat that goes with small samples.

The numbers below represent what players did when they made contact on an 0-0 pitch: AB on 0-0, all AB, AVG and SLG (I chose AVG over OBP since I didn't want HBP's on 0-0 to be treated in the hitter's favour -- Phelps has been plunked 3 times on 0-0 pitches).

Stewart 26/168, 259/423
Catalanotto 9/134, 333/778
Wells 27/160, 296/519
Delgado 17/130, 412/647
Phelps 27/132, 232/407
Hinske 12/128, 167/250
Hudson 16/103, 500/688
Woodward 14/99, 214/357

Phelps, despite swinging and missing at a lot of 0-0 pitches (more below), still has the highest ratio of AB where he puts an 0-0 pitch into play. That in itself would not be a crime if he were more productive doing so.

The numbers below represent the three different outcomes on 0-0 pitches. I show PA, balls in play, first pitch strike (i.e., 0-1 counts), first pitch ball (i.e., 1-0 counts).

Stewart 184, 26, 75, 83
Catalanotto 141, 9, 74, 58
Wells 170, 27, 72, 71
Delgado 161, 17, 57, 87
Phelps 149, 27, 63, 59
Hinske 142, 12, 65, 65
Hudson 112, 16, 50, 46
Woodward 110, 14, 53, 43

I'm not sure what conclusions we can be drawn from the above, if any. And I caution that I've used neither a New Republic nor a NY Times fact checker, so some of these numbers may not be correct (though I promise none are complete fabrications).

Phelps appears to have have the lowest ratio of 1-0 counts, just behind free swingers Catalanotto and Hudson. Delgado has a 1-0 count more than half the time (and is batting 375/527/911!). Hinske is second highest which further makes the mystery of his slump that much more curious (could be the wrist has been more injured than advertised?).

All in all, Phelps' numbers coincide with my visual observations -- he's not working the count to a favourable situation and, perhaps, chasing pitches on 0-0. What can be done with these observations, I can't rightly say. It's one thing to tell a hitter to be more selective, but having them integrate that into their offensive approach without throwing off their game is another matter altogether.
_Dr B - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#102307) #
I also saw some muttering that Josh Phelps' batting stance this year was slightly more 'tilted' from last year and that he need to make some slight mechanical adjustments. Not that this has much to do with his plate selectivity, but it might mean he would give it more of a thump when he does take a swing.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, May 13 2003 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#102308) #
Not that I haven't hogged enough bandwidth already, here's an interesting number: 1.57. That's Phelps' GB/FB ratio, which is quite a bit higher than last year's 0.97.

This number does, perhaps, partly explain his drop in homeruns. I must say that it totally contradicts what I would have guessed, though. Phelps seems to have quite a big uppercut and I would have expected the GB/FB ratio to be quite a bit less than 1.
Advance Scout: Devil Rays, May 13-15 | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.