The Jays currently have an extra starter. I guess the plan will be to eventually trade Kelvim for something and then move Arnold up either into the rotation or long relief some time in the second half.

Of course there's also the possibility of dealing Lidle or Sturtze (if he gets better).

The Jays currently have an extra starter.

Never has such a poor rotation been so inadvertently praised!

I know what you mean, but from where I sit, the Jays have 2 starters and 3 jobs entirely up for grabs.

Speaking of New Haven, here’s the latest on the Ravens’ five most explosive hitters, in ascending order of astonishment:

John-Ford Griffin
111 AB, .279/.357/.532, 10 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 14 BB, 28 K
Gabe Gross
113 AB, .310/.410/.478, 8 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 17 BB, 15 K
Simon Pond
114 AB, .377/.496/.596, 11 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 24 BB, 16 K
Guillermo Quiroz
94 AB, .351/.402/.670, 9 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 8 BB, 25 K
Alexis Rios
85 AB, .424/.505/.694, 7 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 12 BB, 11 K

Other people are starting to take notice of the AA centrefielder and his monumental start to the season as well. Here’s Baseball America’s take on Rios.

As for dealing a starter, it's well-known that Lidle usually struggles in the first half and catches fire thereafter. Considering that he's actually off to one of his best starts ever (5-2, 4.94, 51 IP, 51 H, a very impressive 9/43 BB/K ratio), and taken with his career second-half numbers (25-8, 3.01, 1.10 WHIP, 296 IP, 249 H, 76 BB, 164 K), Lidle could be one the most valuable trading chits available at the deadline.

I'd leave him in Syracuse the rest of the year, unless he's really dominating at the end of July. I think he'd be better off moving slowing up the chain, rather than possibly being called up too early and having to be sent down again. Even if he's better now than a current Jays starter, another couple wins for the Jays this year means nothing in the grand scheme of things.

To add context to that 24% strikeout rate, here are the league averages for AA, AAA and the Majors from last year (note: intentional walks are subtracted from PA):

American League 16.4%, National League 17.4%, International League 16.7%, Pacific Coast League 17.9%, Eastern League 17.4%, Southern League 18.0%, Texas League 17.3%

Most of the A-ball leagues have been hovering near 20% for the last few years (with the notable exception of the Florida State League, which has been in the same territory as the AA and AAA leagues).

I agree with Pistol for learning purposes and for business reasons. Unless he has nothing left to gain at AAA, I see no good reason to start the clock for arbitration eligibility purposes.

Thanks, Robert -- with those numbers in mind, here are the K/BF percentages of other Blue Jays pitching prospects:

Brandon League (Low-A SAL): 19%
Sandy Nin (Low-A SAL): 19%
David Bush (High-A FSL): 19%
Dustin McGowan (High-A FSL): 19%
Chad Pleiness (High-A FSL): 20%
Dave Gassner (AA Eastern): 22% (22 IP)
Jordan De Jong (High-A FSL): 28% (18 IP)
Vince Perkins (Low-A SAL): 36%!

Prior to this season, I figured Cash would be the primary catcher and Griffin/Wells/Gross would be the starting OF in 2005 for the Jays and didn't consider Rios and Quiroz too much.

Now with those two hitting the cover off the ball should they be considered in the mix as well and let time sort out who will play (similar to the Twins RF/DH mix), or do you think that they will become trade bait? Or will Cash/Griffin/Gross become tradable now?

David Cameron at StrikeThree.com also singles out Rios today as evidence of a young player's ability to progress by leaps and bounds.

Here are Jason Arnold's strikeout and walk rates at his various minor league stops (league average in parentheses):

2001 A- (New York-Penn) 243 BF, 6.3%, 30.5% (8.6%,19.8%)
2002 A+ (Florida State) 330 BF, 6.9%, 25.2% (8.8%,17.7%)
2002 AA (Eastern......) 80 BF, 6.6%, 26.3% (8.5%,17.4%)
2002 AA (Texas........) 239 BF, 9.5%, 22.4% (8.5%,17.3%)

This year's experience at AA seems to have been nothing more than a refresher course, as Arnold already showed himself to be better than the average AA pitcher in 2001. His performance the rest of the year at Syracuse should tell us a lot about whether or not he's likely to be an ace.

the possibility of dealing Lidle

I hope Cory goes to a contender, has another great second half and gets $30 million for four years as a free agent. He's a terrific pitcher, but he won't be back in 2004; there's no room in the Toronto budget.

No need to rush Arnold; assuming he masters AAA, call him up when the SkyChiefs season is over. If he pitches once or twice in late September, even in relief, he'll get used to the Show, which will help him relax as Lidle's replacement next April. Or June, if watching the arbitration clock is that important.

Rios isn't a prototype Jays hitter, but his improvement is incredible. Credit the coaching staff; a lot of what "Lexi" is doing with Ken Joyce sounds like Mike Barnett's influence on Delgado. It seems to have rubbed off on Quiroz, too.

Pistol, I'd hesitate to trade either catcher. Lately, Cash doesn't seem so far ahead, but both may become useful major leaguers. Rios (or any of the prospects) could eventually be dealt -- before the 2005 season, if Rogers and Godfrey let J.P. spend a little money, a package of young hitting talent might fetch a big-league pitcher.

If Arnold replaces Lidle, who replaces Arnold? The team will still needs a quality #3 starter.

Jurgen, there will be plenty of pitchers available again this winter with one-year commitments like Lidle and Sturtze. J.P. will fish in the same pools (trade and free agency) for one or two experienced arms, and Arnold will be eased into the 2004 rotation as #3 or #4.

Coach,

given the recent debates about the pitch count/injury corelation, can you recall how Cito used his pitchers? It seems to me that he adhered pretty strictly to the 100 pitch rule, that may have been a product of having awesome bullpens for most of his tenure but maybe he also wa trying to protect the health of his pitchers. ?

I think that Pat Hentgen racked up some high pitch count totals.

There will be no Triple-A deubt for Arnold this evening. Both ends of the Syracuse vs. Durham double dip have been cancelled due to rain, which is no big surprise if you live on the east coast. The two teams don't play each other again in '03, so the two games will not be given new make up dates. The next possible start could be Tuesday against Norfolk.

ESPN is listing the first game of the Syracuse doubleheader as cancelled. The second game says TBA but if the first wasn't played that doesn't bode well for the second.

Syracuse needs a dome stadium. Unbelievable.

Weather permitting, Arnold will get his AAA debut tonight against Norfolk. It's a 6:00 ET start and can be heard here.