Does anyone know how to predict when the Jays radio will have a pre-game show? I thought it was just weekend games that they had a half-hour pre-game show, but tonight when I tuned in at 10pm Tom was in the middle of an interview with Stewart so I assume they came on the air earlier. The pre-game shows are often my favorite part of the broadcast, especially the interviews with the manager, and I'm disappointed that (a few years back?) they stopped having them before every game.

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A couple questions.

1: What's wrong with Phelps? Why is he missing another game?

2: What's the story behind the $2 tickets on Wednesdays? Has anybody heard about this? How do you go about getting them? I should be able to make the game on Wednesday if anybody is interested joining Hannah and I.

Cheers,

MP

Well if nobody else is awake, let me address your concerns:

Stephen, as far as I know they have a pre-game show for every game that doesn't start at 7:05 PM EST on a weekday. Because that would mean cutting "Prime Time Sports" short on the FAN Radio Network, and you just don't mess with Bob McCown.

M.P., nothing is wrong with Phelps. There are a few things wrong with Carlos Tosca, but he's not too bad overall.

The $2 Wednesday games are a promotion by a delivery company I've never heard of, Expedite Plus. The dates are May 14 and 28, June 11 and 25, any seat in the 500 level or the 200 level outfield for 2 bones. Purchase them through the normal channels. You also get free refills on pop & popcorn in the Dome as part of this promotion. I can't go.

Now if you'll excuse me I need to go see if I can pick up Big D Davis in the BBFL.

Every time the Jays have a game like this I think to myself:
"If this is the game that Doug Creek earns his outright release from the club then the game is not a total waste"

Well how about that... Tosca decided tonight was another good chance to demonstrate some of the things wrong with him. And how.

First he leaves Davis in too long. The man is a 6 inning pitcher. Do not ask for more than six, especially when he's facing a good hitting team for the second consecutive start. Next time, consult John Gibbons, who had the good sense to pull Davis after 6 in his first Blue Jay start.

Having left Davis in too long, Tosca reaches for Brian Bowles, fresh up from AAA, with one out, runners on 1st & 2nd, the good guys down 2-1. Now I know it would be too much to ask for him to bring in Politte at this point, as no manager in the major leagues is that sabremetrically inclined yet. But how about his second best reliever, Aquilino Lopez? Or how about Mr. Sinkerball Jeff Tam and your best chance at the DP? Nope. Brian Bowles and his 0 major league innings this year.

Carlos watches in astonishment as Bowles promptly gives up a single to David Eckstein. Three pitches is enough of a 2003 break-in for Bowles, and he starts pushing the Random Compulsive Reliever Panic Buttons, bringing in Doug Creek. The Cripple is determined to show that his recent improved performance was a temporary anomaly, and he drives his point home by not just giving up a 2 RBI single, but then throwing the ball into centrefield and allowing the runners to move up.

Not to be outdone by his pitcher, with first base now open Tosca declines to issue the IBB to the dangerous righthanded hitter Salmon. Salmon shows his gratitude by slapping a double. Tosca, being the clever strategist that he is, orders the IBB to the dangerous lefthanded hitter Anderson. And then he pushes the Reliever Panic Button one more time... and brings in... Jeff Tam... who goes fly ball, ground ball, done.

6-1 Angels. Thank you Carlos.

As the only Blue Jays fan in Southern California (and as a graduate of the parent high school of Bowles), I was able to attend one of my six Jays games a year. Tickets are a lot harder to come by this year in Anaheim. No more announced crowds of 15,000. Friday and Saturday games are sold out.

I was very disappointed at some of the things I saw tonight:

• Before Hudson was caught stealing on the Woodward strike out, Woody hit a foul ball that was down the third base line but questionable as to whether it could be caught. It ended up a couple rows back but the O-Dog was spinning his head around like a top trying. Before the next set of signs, Butterfield pointed to his own eyes while communicating to Hudson reminding him to pick up Nickels.
  
  
• Tosca's relief patterns, as described by Jonny, were maddeningly reminscent of the Royals series. I too, was surprised to see Davis out there in the 7th and I also was hoping that Lopez or Tam would come in but instead, I saw the high socks of Bowles warming up. In addition, Tosca probably destroyed whatever was left of Creek's confidence by having the lefty intentionally walk another lefty in GA and then promptly removing him. OTOH, Scioscia showed confidence in Kennedy, who before a couple nights ago, hadn't started against a LHP all year and left him in there against Creek and he delivered. Of course, Tam had a rare good outing but these La Russian substitutions are maddening and they haven't seemed to work at all this year.
  
  
• Vernon Wells forgetting how many outs there were and also, his failure to pick up Butterfield. By then, the game was pretty much decided but it's upsetting to see the lack of concentration the boys showed out there.
  

They did show good patience early on against Sele - there was a stretch where six of seven hitters worked full counts. Tough luck on a nifty play by Glaus off a Wells' sharp one-hopper in the third to end that threat.

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The weird thing is how the media occasionally compares Tosca to Earl Weaver. When Weaver was a) well past his prime and b) had a truly awful team like the 1986 Orioles, he still only used 267 relievers. I wouldn't be shocked if Tosca managed to break that before the All-Star Game.

MP

Elijah, thanks for the game report! It's great to have a correspondent in SoCal. I can only agree with yours, Jonny's and everyone's assessment of Tosca: until he stops playing Reliever Roulette, his pitchers won't be able to establish any sort of groove, and will always wonder if the first baserunner they allow means the end of their night.

I suppose that if there's anything positive to take out of this, it's another useful start from Doug Davis. He was hardly overpowering -- 5 walks, 2 Ks -- but he didn't make too many mistakes either, and this was the Angels' second look at him in less than a week. I'd be interested to know what approach Gil Patterson is taking with Davis; the only comments I've heard Davis make is that the change of scenery has been beneficial to his confidence, which is pretty much what you'd expect. If Davis in fact ends up being this year's Pete Walker, then JP has done another great job of acquiring freely available talent.

I disagree - Davis was not left in too long. If anything he was taken out too quickly. I think it's important to get past this innings crap and focus on 1) how the pitcher is actually thrwoing the ball 2) how the opposing hitters are adjusting to the pitcher and 3) how many pitches he's thrown in the game.

I think it's pointless to jump on Tosca for every reliever move he makes that doesn't work. I agree it's not the best time to bring in Bowles, but if Tam had come in and had given up hits you guys would have been harping on that too.

Lopez was the logical choice, but since he's now the set-up man, conventional wisdom would have saved him for the 8th (especially with Politte tired from the Texas series). In other words, Tosca hasn't really been doing anything that a lot of managers don't do. The "problem" with the pen is that there aren't enough quality relievers for every situation, and that isn't really Tosca's fault.

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Apparently they adjusted to Davis just fine.

I can't argue with how long Davis was left in.. 101 pitches overall, and he only faced 27 batters. After 6 he had only faced 24 guys, so I probably would have sent him out in the 7th, given that Politte probably wasn't available, and nobody else in the pen has been spectacular.

I'm a huge fan of Dr. Mike Marshall's. Here's what he told BP on the subject:

MM: I would never use a pitch count, pitch counts are irrelevant. What is relevant is how many times the batter has seen him. I would not ask my pitchers to face a batter a fourth time in a game. I train pitchers to throw the best pitch possible in a situation. We'd work on pitch sequences, when to throw the fastball, curveball, screwball, depending on the type of hitter they're facing. I did research on this for myself in 1975. You've got four types of hitters, right-handed, left-handed, full and spray hitters. You find out what works with each individual hitter, mix it up three times through the lineup, then take a seat.

I'd love to see more research done on Marshall's ideas.

MP

Davis gave up a routine grounder that Woodward bobbled on the last batter he faced.

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Davis gave up a routine grounder that Woodward bobbled on the last batter he faced.

Good point. In the 7th Davis:

• Got Bengie M to fly out
  
• Walked Fullmer (who is leading the league in AVG last time I checked)
  
• Threw a wild pitch
  
• Got Owens to hit a ground to short which was muffed by Woody
  

So Davis wasn't really doing **that** badly after all. I mean, it's not like he was giving up screaming line drives all over the place. I retract my statement about "they adjusted to Davis just fine".

MP

I think it's pointless to jump on Tosca for every reliever move he makes that doesn't work.

Right on, Robert. Even great bullpens (like Anaheim's, or Minnesota's) aren't automatic, but the manager has to treat them like they are. I think our collective impatience stems from frustration; Toronto's hasn't been very good, so whenever someone has an off night, it's "here we go again" for a lot of fans.

2) how the opposing hitters are adjusting to the pitcher

I generally agree with your criteria. In this specific case, I would have shaken Doug's hand after six, because it was 12 innings of great work -- in the same week -- against tough hitters. I share the view of Davis as a "six inning pitcher," but Jonny, that's an average. When they're doing the job, you normally let those guys go seven.

Bowles had to be used; he hadn't seen any action for several days. It might have turned out different if he had started the inning. Or not. Brian had an opportunity to stake a claim on the #11 spot, but didn't exactly seize it. Jeff Tam, in his fourth straight scoreless appearance, got five outs on nine pitches. This does raise the question -- if the Jays keep getting quality starts, will there be enough work to keep seven relievers sharp? It may seem like they're competing for one job, but here's a scenario where Bowles and Tam both stick around.

Let's say Escobar is ready to go six innings and is suddenly motivated to do his best. I know, it's a stretch. Let's say he has no recurrence of the hand numbness. That would be great -- Davis (or Mark Hendrickson, if doesn't show more consistency soon) could turn the bullpen from weakness to strength, with Doug Creek replacing (for example) John Rocker in Tampa. Addition by subtraction, if you ask me, and maybe J.P. can get an anonymous prospect in return, or a pinch hitter with a salary match.

I didn't consider Politte's unavailability before my rant, but I maintain that Davis should not have been out for the seventh and that Bowles was not a good choice as first man in. If Bowles needs work, give him a better chance to succeed by letting him start the 7th.

Yes, a "six inning pitcher" should not be automatically capped at six innings in every start. Yes, Davis had not thrown many pitches in his six and had not been hit hard. But he wasn't exactly breezing along either. He's a guy with a very small margin of error. Suppose it was Escobar who had just thrown 6 on ~90 pitches - yes, send him out for the 7th. He's got enough raw talent to make it work. Davis on the other hand must rely on craftiness, and he hasn't yet demonstrated that he's all that crafty at the major league level. As three of us have already stated, it's important to consider that he was facing the same tough lineup for the second consecutive start. Pat him on the back and bring in Bowles or Tam to start the 7th.

Tam may indeed have been knocked around as the first man in and maybe we would whine about that too. But it's less speculative to say he would have down the same to the 1st & 2nd hitters as he did to the 5th & 6th hitters, which was flyball & groundball and would have cost 1 run.

I agree that it's silly to jump on the manager for every bullpen move that doesn't work, and that a lot of this is just frustration. But Tosca has earned our frustration. On a good day he goes by the book, on far too many days he plays wide-eyed Reliever Roulette. Time for J.P. to swallow some pride and admit that his bullpen is lousy, see what he can do to improve it, and have a heart-to-heart with Tosca about getting the most out of what he's got. I like Coach's scenario and I think Escobar can pull it off.

Second guessing gives you perfect vision. However I was surprised, as I was watching the game, when Davis came out for the seventh. I did not know how many pitches he had thrown. Why was I surprised?

1. He has not had many starts this year
2. He was starting against the Angels for the second time in a week
3. He is a control pitcher. Power pitchers can get away with repeated exposure, control pitchers cannot

Tosca was asking for trouble and he got it.

The funny thing is is that Davis pitched very well in the 7th. Whether or not it would have been the right move to take Davis out after 6, leaving him in produced good results.

So, perhaps, Tosca asked for trouble and got it BY TAKING DAVIS OUT before he got a chance to finish the 7th.