Coming into this game, I figured that the Jays organization was deriving at least one, but potentially two, benefits from this whole situation. If they had been able to win an entertaining game in front of a full house and a big media spotlight, that would have been a great showcase for the team, leading to all kinds of potential attendance benefits down the road. Obviously, it didn't happen. What is it about having 40 000 people in the stands that makes the pitching staff roll over onto their backs?

The other benefit is that of goodwill and civic-ness, and it didn't depend on winning or losing. The impression that will stay with everyone is that, during the SARS crisis, when everyone was shouting "Unclean!" at Toronto, when political leaders were doing their very best not to lead, the Jays stepped forward to champion the city and bring everyone together. Such an effect does not go amiss during a time when so many blowhard radio callers and internet posters are predicting the demise of baseball in Canada.

(Off topic: the thing that strikes me most about the SARS outbreak is... I'll tell it this way. There are a bunch of (excellent) websites I am in the habit of visiting, including www.televisionwithoutpity.com and www.tomatonation.com, and others in the family of sites to be found at www.damnhellasskings.com . One of the founders of this little group has been calling herself 'Sars' (short for Sarah) for years, and imagine how weird this must be for her. For a while on Tomato Nation, she put up a 'SARS Headline of the Day' thing, purely out of self-defence against all the e-mails she was receiving. What would the people do here if the Coach virus or the Gitz virus started killing people all over the world?)

I've read that the tickets being sold at $1 last night cost the Jays about $500k. That doesn't sound correct does it. Isn't that assuming that the tickets would have been sold at regular prices? Or does the team not get 100% of the ticket revenues?

http://economics.about.com
Damn Perkins has been riding off of my coattails for years. :)

MP

One of the founders of this little group has been calling herself 'Sars' (short for Sarah)

In the early 1980's there was a breath mint, sort of like Altoids, called AIDS.

On an earlier thread, someone anonymously tossed out the comment, sarcastically I hope, that there's no such thing as bad press.

Ask the people at Enron about that ...

What is it about having 40 000 people in the stands that makes the pitching staff roll over onto their backs?

Hendrickson may have done the opposite; I thought he responded to the magnitude of the moment by being too aggressive. He threw a lot of perfect strikes to both A-Rod and Gonzo in the first inning before losing both AB on pitches that were too "good". Again in the third; he got Gonzalez with a nasty changeup, which he might have thought to use against Rodriguez on the eighth or ninth pitch of the previous at-bat. The worst pitch Mark threw was to Greene, but mostly he didn't have bad stuff, just questionable strategy.

Tosca found the limits of Kershner's durability -- he didn't bounce back well after his long outing Sunday, and last night was his fourth appearance in five days. Lopez was terrific; one pitch he wanted back (out of 46) is a pretty good outing. Creek and Miller did their jobs; Tam was game, but like Gitz, I fear he's just overmatched. The only "rollover" I saw was by Escobar, and what else would you expect?

The Texas Rangers take a cut of the gate revenue (I forget what percentage), and the owners of SkyDome probably get a cut as well. I assume the revenue they'd receive would be based on the original price of the ticket.

The $500,000 figure is probably inflated by the paper loss Rogers would take on the game, but unless they had something worked out with the Rangers and SkyDome, the team would have still lost a significant amount of money on the game.

It's unfortunate that Escobar can refuse to go down to the minors.
("Any player who has been in the major leagues for five full seasons may not be assigned to a minor-league team without his written consent.")

There's always a slim chance that someone would pick him up before he cleared waivers and went down to AAA.

I've read that the tickets being sold at $1 last night cost the Jays about $500k. That doesn't sound correct does it. Isn't that assuming that the tickets would have been sold at regular prices? Or does the team not get 100% of the ticket revenues?

No, I don't think it really cost the club that much money, but it's consistent with the way MLB and its clubs report financial losses to make themselves look bad to the player's union and communities they want to have build stadiums for them.

The bullpen has been absolutely disastrous, and I have to think that it's maybe a blindspot of Ricciardi and Co.

Last night's game was my fault - every time I turned the TV on,
the Rangers scored more runs. Every time I turned it off, the Jays scored more runs.

I wonder if Escobar is claiming that he struggled last night because he wasn't in a save situation?

If the Jays waive Escobar, he'll (a) be picked up by another American League team; (b) start pitching great; (c) save two key games in a three-game series against the Jays; (d) be the subject of a column by you-know-who. It'll be Tony Batista II (The Revenge of The Aggrieved Pitcher). I'd suggest moving him into a less demanding role, moving Lopez into Politte's role, and making Politte the closer. Escobar still has a lot of talent, and may very well be suffering from a crisis of confidence (which isn't surprising, given that it's Escobar).

The frightening part is that the bullpen is actually better than last year's model. Doug Creek and Jeff Tam can actually occasionally get major league hitters out, though only some of the time. Some of last year's minor-league suspects couldn't even do that.

The problem J.P. is facing that there isn't a lot of pitching help in the minors, or anywhere for that matter. I suspect that he knows that his bullpen acquisitions weren't anything special, and is trying to put a brave face on things for public consumption. At least, I hope he knows this.

http://economics.about.com
The bullpen will eventually turn it around. While I disagree with both the composition of it and a couple of the players in it, they're not **that** bad. While I disagreed with the signing of Creek, he may be turning it around.

I imagine Escobar's personal situation is probably a huge drain on his performance. I know I wouldn't be the same at work if I had *that* hanging over my head.

This team will still get its 85 wins. I haven't seen anything that would dispute that. I've been getting frustrated with the team because there are days it shows that it has 95 win potential if it would stop beating itself. But blowing so many leads is frustrating to watch and I know it's got to be hell on the team. This team is a lot more frustrating than the 1998-2001 Expos teams I cheered for, who were just plain lousy.

MP

Is MP Moffatt the Iraqi information minister in disguise? You haven't seen anything in the past 27 games that would dispute the Jays will win 85 games? Hell, on the 3 days the Tigers won this year, they've demonstrated 162-game win potential.
It'll take a heck of a lot more than a "keep on keeping on" laissez-faire attitude to reach the .500 mark.

Clarification - When he said 85 wins, he was counting spring training.

If they waived Escobar and someone else picked him up, it would be a good thing. What's he getting, something like $4Million?

The only reason to keep him was to flip him at the deadline. This is obviously not going to happen now. If they can't/won't waive him, I would recommend putting him in long relief/spot starting. It's the only way to get his numbers close to respectable for the trade deadline (and that's if he's lights-out).

http://economics.about.com
No, I just figure that in the long run, the pitching staff and D is going to improve, and that improvement in absolute terms will be much larger than any possible decline on the other side of the ball.

If the over/under is 80.5, I'll gladly put even money on the over.

MP

I'm on board with MP, but I'd be more inclined to say they'll be over .500 the rest of the way (a much safer bet) rather than over .500 at the end of the year. I still think my prediction of 83 wins will be achieved... mostly thanks to the brilliance of the offense so far, which gives me great encouragement.

http://economics.about.com
I'd be shocked if the Jays finished 7 (or more) games under at the end of the season, so I think going atleast .500 the rest of the way is given... unless JP gets charitable and makes an Eric Hinske for Fernando Tatis trade. As an Expos fan, I wouldn't mind that. :)

Unfortunately it doesn't look like it will matter a whole lot becuase anywhere between 70 and 95 wins will probably put the team in 3rd. I bet the Jays would sell a lot more tickets at 85 wins then they would at 75 wins, tho.

MP

Let me assure everyone: there is no such thing as the "Gitz virus," unless chronic unemployment and gnashing your teeth at the U.S. is a virus, in which case it only affects me. All is well.

If the Jays waive Escobar, the Tigers, and 28 other teams, would claim him in a second. You don't just throw away million-dollar arms, even when they're attached to six-cent heads and four-cent shoulders and various other cheap ligaments and tendons and bones, etc.

I also think the Jays will approach 83 wins, but they better get going, and the rotation better get better, too. No bullpen can do well if they're being summoned in the third inning of every other game. It'd be a shame if all that offence goes to waste -- a la the Rangers.

You don't just throw away million-dollar arms, even when they're attached to six-cent heads and four-cent shoulders and various other cheap ligaments and tendons and bones, etc.

I agree. Waiving Escobar is not the solution. Sure, he's headed for Halladay '00, but I also think there's a shot he can be overhauled like Halladay '01. This sex scandal is certainly making things worse, but if the O.J. trial taught me anything it's that the rich and famous seem to have an uncanny ability to skirt any feelings of guilt. Maybe I'm just cynical, but I'm tempted to think he'd be less affected by it if the allegations are true.

Pollitte has been the closer of the future for almost a year now, and it's obviously time to see whether he's the new Duane Ward or Mike Timlin.

Anyone else notice ESPN.com's headline?

"Dollar bill goes a long way for Blue Jays fans"

What the hell is a "dollar bill"?

Waiving Escobar is not the solution. Sure, he's headed for Halladay '00, but I also think there's a shot he can be overhauled like Halladay '01.

I don't think he's remotely close to being mature enough to agree to go down to A ball and work his way back up like Halladay did.

I would waive him in a second.

I would have seriously considered non-tendering him in the off-season but I was in the 'keep him and flip him' camp (a good closer can net you some very shiny trinkets from a desperate team).

The choice is putting ~3 million dollars back in your pocket or keeping Escobar in the hopes he'll turn it around (and then you have to come up with another contract at the end of the year; he's on a 1-year deal).

Current Blue Jay bullpen notwithstanding...it's not that hard to find a reliever who's better than Kelvim.

http://economics.about.com
"Dollar Bill" is that creepy guy at Queen and Spadina who offers favors for money. Don't know why Jays fans would be interested.

MP

I agree with Benum. Escobar will be a free agent at the end of the year. I don't think there's that many teams who would be willing to spend time and money on trying to turn him around when there's a very good chance he would bolt at the end of the season. I'm having a difficult time believing that a contending club would be interested, and what could a non-contender have to gain from giving him a shot?

If the Jays aren't able to find a taker in a trade right now, I'd put him on waivers and hope a team does come out of the woodwork. I don't see what the Jays could really gain by keeping him at this point, or even waiting until the deadline to move him. Even if he suddenly turns it everything around and posts an ERA of 3.00 the next three months, his ERA for the year will still be close to 5.00. His trade value would still not be that good, and the Jays have to pay him until he is moved. Is it worth it to pay him a couple million over the next three months just so he can be dealt for one or two fringe prospects later?

Current Blue Jay bullpen notwithstanding...it's not that hard to find a reliever who's better than Kelvim.

That's the Catch-22. He's one of the best they have.

If the rest of the pen wasn't a complete disaster, I don't think we'd be focusing our frustrations on Escobar.

There's no question, however, that he needs to get out of the closer's role.

I'm not sure how these things work: would the Jays only be obligated for $1 M if they waived him?

I like the idea of demoting Escobar.

He clearly needs to get out of town for a while and get his confidence (and mechanics?) back. If some other team grabs him off waivers (or he refuses the assignment) so be it. The likelyhood of him being a tradeable commodity in July is so remote that they should either try to fix what's broken, or make him someone else's problem.

BTW, they should dump Tam while they're at at. He's been horrible (HORRIBLE!)

Creek I'm ok with. He's shown some signs of turning it around. He struck out Arod on three pitches last night, so there's still hope he can contribute.

As others pointed out though, the cupboard is completely bare at Syracuse, so it's unclear who they'd bring up (I guess Linton and Justin Miller).

If they waived him and another team claimed him, the Jays would be off the hook for the remainer of his salary. If Escobar was released instead and another team signed him, the Jays would have to pay his entire contract, less the pro-rated major league minimum.

If Escobar refuses the assignment, does he become a free agent? And if so, are the Jays off the hook for the rest of his salary?

\If Escobar refuses the assignment, does he become a free agent? And if so, are the Jays off the hook for the rest of his salary?\

I believe so. If he were to be sent to the minors, I think he may need to clear waivers first. If a team claims him during that period, then the Jays are off the hook.

I doubt Escobar would agree to a minor league assignment. He's not going to be out any money if he refuses and there's several teams who would gladly give him a major league job for the league minimum.

Prediction ... in 2004, Kelvim Escobar will be the Opening Day starter for your Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

He will throw seven shutout innings and get the win in a game saved by John Rocker.

I think Ryan has it correct.

There's an old transactions primer here:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html

(I'm not sure if anything major has changed with the last CBA)

As i had mentioned earlier in this thread (courtesy of above linked espn article): "Any player who has been in the major leagues for five full seasons may not be assigned to a minor-league team without his written consent" Escobar qualifies for this 'veteran' benefit.

What would happen today (I suspect):
A) Escobar put on waivers
B) Escobar clears waivers
C) Escobar refuses to go down to minors
D) Blue Jays keep him or release him

The hope would be that a team claims him in step B and the Jays save the millions.

Mick,

I think the Tigers have a higher waiver claim than Tampa Bay, and they would certainly put in a claim for him. Escobar isn't washed up enough to play for the D-Rays. And can you imagine him pitching for Lou Piniella? Hurumph.

'Course, there is this small problem: Escobar remains a Jay, and I expect him to remain so for the foreseeable future.

Semi-literate Texan here.

Why does the rest of Canada hate Toronto?

http://economics.about.com
Pretty much the same reasons Americans hated NYC pre-9/11.

And not **all** Canadians hate Toronto. There's a family in Yellowknife that thinks it's quite nice.

MP

Actually, I grew up in London, Ontario and I love Toronto. Don't care for the Maple Leafs, but that's a different story.

An added bonus about naming Politte the closer would be to test Escobar's mettle, and find out whether he's really worth keeping.

It would either inspire him to "regain" his form or whatever, or crush him like a bug.