Here are the standings (did I mention it's early?):

Rank Team Name             W-L-T  Win %  GB
 1   Billies Bashers       9-3-0  .750    -
 2   Red Mosquitos         8-3-1  .708    0.5
 3   gashouse gorillas     8-4-0  .667    1
 4   Jicks Rays            7-3-2  .667    1
 5   Sub-Urban Shockers    6-3-3  .625    1.5
 6   Springfield Isotopes  7-5-0  .583    2
 7   Nation Builders       7-5-0  .583    2
 8   Eastern Shore Birds   6-6-0  .500    3
 9   Garces_not_on_roids   6-6-0  .500    3
10   Reykjavik Fish Candy  6-6-0  .500    3
11   Baird Brain           5-5-2  .500    3
12   AGF                   5-5-2  .500    3
13   Hannibals Cannibals   6-6-0  .500    3
14   Mebion Glyndwr        5-7-0  .417    4
15   Toronto Walrus        5-7-0  .417    4
16   Moscow Rats           3-6-3  .375    4.5
17   K-Town Mashers        4-8-0  .333    5
18   Chatsworth Halos      3-7-2  .333    5
19   Geoffs Grumpy Group   3-8-1  .292    5.5
20   Thunderbirds          3-9-0  .250    6

Let the trash-talking begin!

http://economics.about.com
Jeez.. now JP and Keith will never give me a job now I'm in 10th. The Yankees are holding up better without Jeter than I am.

I must say, this league rocks. Having 20 teams with 20 diehard seamheads as owners makes this easily the most difficult league I've ever participated in. Thanks again for the opportunity.

MP

I like how active all the owners have been. Except for Jordan, who has been cruising in an airboat through the Everglades all week, but is 6-3-3 anyway. Once he starts managing his team on a daily basis, they'll come back to the pack.

http://economics.about.com
I also like seeing the differences in strategies people have. My team was built around an old (but speedy) outfield, Derek Jeter, and a bunch of starters who Yahoo designates as "relievers". I call it the "Diamondback" strategy, which I actually think could work really well in a league filled with SABR types. So unlike a lot of the other owners, I was gunning for SB and R on the offense side, and IP on the defense side.

This week
* None of my four outfielders is hitting better than .158
* My team stole 1 base all week.
* We all know what happened to Jeter.
* I still managed to lose in IP.

Honestly, I'm really, really lucky to be in 10th. A lot of my scrubs like Randall Simon had big weeks.

MP

Coach, it could be worse. You could be in 16th place.

The one thing that surprised me about the game was how quickly the score could change, even late in the week. I think I was up something like 8-2 after Friday, then watched in horror as every close category switched hands on Saturday. Jordan hung on in the close ones on Sunday, and here I am looking up at almost everyone.

I think I'm due for a slight drop in hitting-I can't see Grudzielanek doing this well all month, let alone all season. I'm glad I picked him up though-his first game was a very satisfying line score.

Beware the Rats-we bite.

Another reminder of how luck plays a factor in these first week standings. The only reason I'm in 6th rather than somewhere further down is because of an 0-4 day by Jermaine Dye. That and someone didn't put in Robert Fick on the one day he blows up.

My strategery on Draft Day: don't take Phil Nevin. Of course, then I end up taking Pedro Astacio and Ismael Valdes so I went for the chronically injured pitching staff route. And hopefully everyone will be back and healthy once winter finally ends...

Well I feel fortunate to be in the position I'm in considering I got absolutely nothing from Schilling and nothing from Sheffield and Jones until Sunday. Piazza was also serving a suspension for most of the week. I think I'm also going to regret the trades I made which removed my big advantage in offensive depth.

Replacing Durazo with Hatteberg at first base is going to hurt a lot as will losing Cameron's power and speed...though hopefully Stewart hitting over .300 will counteract that a bit. Losing Marcus Giles might haunt me too as I'm resorting to Eric Almonte to fill my empty position for two or three weeks until I can get a long term replacement. I have to hope Piniero and Fossum both prove to be worth it and I'm beginning to see that offence truly is more predictable than pitching.

Dropping Kevin Appier near the end of the week hurt a lot, especially since I took him right in the middle of the draft when a lot of reasonably valuable players were still available. He had a terrible spring and first start and I had to drop someone to make room for Chacon...although I could have dropped Fox I decided I would cut ties with Appier now rather than convince myself to keep using him.

I have a lot invested in young pitching right now...Piniero, Fossum, Chacon, Myers, Day, Callaway. A band of second rate closers. But if Schilling doesn't start stepping up I don't like my chances to repeat this week's performance too many more times. In retrospect, I deserve braincramp of the year award for taking Schilling in the first round ahead of Pedro in a keeper league of all things. Say thank you Jicks Rays. :)

P.S. Jonny, thanks for all that work!

Weird, I just spent 15 minutes trying to "fix" Jonny's table (in Netscape, the [pre] tag doesn't seem to work) but then I changed browsers; it's probably been fine in IE all along. Thanks for doing this, Jonny -- it gives everyone an idea of our needs, and it sure does suggest you and Snellville had a high-powered opening matchup. Baird Brain and AGF are obviously very strong ".500" clubs; either would have beaten most of us, according to the chart.

It's reassuring to know I'd be first in Roto pitching, and 7th overall. That's the team I thought I drafted, and my hitting should improve a little. You have to like Jordan's split -- the best hitting team in the league, with the worst pitching, puts him squarely in the middle of the Roto pack. So why am I looking up at him in the standings? Head-to-Head is the great equalizer; it's going to make this league more fun, which was the whole point. It's a lot easier to recover from a slow start in HtH, because your bad weeks are "erased" every Monday.

is Kenny Williams in this league?

That depends on whether Coach minds being called Kenny. ;)

My strategy? Detroit Tigers! Of the seven drafted in the league, I picked two, and I grabbed Eric Munson this week. Prepare to witness the unholy power of Mike Maroth, Spicol.

I'm enjoying my first foray into a head-to-head league, but I have to say it'll take some getting used to. In my other rotisserie leagues, I don't worry about what place I'm in after one week. I'm only worried about "structural problems" with my lineup at this point in time.

In this league we have 22 one-week seasons. I was destroying Kent until Saturday (thank you, Greg Maddux) and barely held on Sunday. Every week could be like this.

Except for Jordan, who has been cruising in an airboat through the Everglades all week, but is 6-3-3 anyway.

No, but I did get to watch two episodes of Miami Vice during my week in Florida, which is pretty close. I'll post something on my American visit a little later.

Once he starts managing his team on a daily basis, they'll come back to the pack.

Ironically, I was DFL in my ten-team ESPN roto league last year when I left on my honeymoon. When I came back 2+ weeks later, I was in 2nd place, on my way to a championship season. The lesson, as Homer might say, is: never try.

Apologies to those who sent trade offers during my absence; I've replied to those I know of. I'm about ready to deal from my supply of relievers in exchange for a starter, but I'll refine what I'm looking for and post something on the Yahoo site.

This site is just blowing me away, folks: 43,000+ hits, and many threads well into the 30s. I'll be back in active posting mode once I'm finished clearing out the inbox and getting some paying work done here.

http://economics.about.com

The silicon chip inside her head
Gets switched to overload,
And nobody's gonna go to school today,
She's going to make them stay at home,
And daddy doesn't understand it,
He always said she was as good as gold,
And he can see no reason
Cos there are no reasons
What reason do you need to be shown

Tell me why
I Dont't like Mondays
I want to shoot
The whole day down


Honestly, I'm just happy I'm not in 20th in any category. I'm using this year as a learning experience.. most of you have far more experience and knowledge in this area than I do, so I'm just observing and trying to pick up a few things for next year.

I don't think my team is quite as bad as it looks, just because my "star" players have been horrible. Here's my first four draft picks:

1: Bobby Abreu: .143/.357/.286
2: Derek Jeter: DL
3: Larry Walker: .125/.192/.292
4: Robb Nen: DL

Needless to say given all this I'm thrilled to be in 10th.

M.P.

If it makes you feel any better M.P., Tim Worrell has been fantastic as Nen's replacement.

(Evil laughter)

This is a load of fun. Thanks to my former rival Jonny the K-Town Masher for the Roto stats. A couple of great starts by Rune "Elvis" Hernandez (KC's #1 starter by coin toss) and powerful performances by Soriano and Millar kept my head just above water as Jonny and I swapped leads several times in almost all offensive categories. I've got a couple of stop-gaps in my rotation that are doing well, but I'll need to find some replacements when they get bumped. Bring on the T-Birds!

Feel free to call me Kenny; just remember I can block your IP address. :)

http://economics.about.com
Yeah, Jonny.. that makes me feel much better.

The scary thing is that Larry Walker may now be my most durable high-round draft pick.

*shudders*

MP

Look closely, AGF, and you may have found your trade victim in Baird Brain.

And any complaints about Johnson's poor performance should be offset by Hillenbrand's 15!!!!!! RBIs.

Hey MP, I'll like totally trade you something for Bobby Abreu...

http://economics.about.com
Trading my 1st round pick while his value is at an all-time low probably isn't a good idea, though I do hear Chuck LaMar telling me to ask you if Kevin Stocker is available.

MP

I do hear Chuck LaMar telling me to ask you if Kevin Stocker is available.

LOL. If the chorus of voices in my head ever expands to include Chuck LaMar, y'all have my permission to terminate me with extreme prejudice.

Now I wish I was in the league.

Spicol: Grrr.

I'm actually not all that upset about it. Beltran will eventually come off the DL, and then we'll see. I have a feeling that El Duque's not going to have much of a year, from my perspective it's Beltran for Durham, which I'd do again in a heartbeat.

Looking at the Roto stats, I notice that going up against the no. 1 offense and number 20 pitching staff, I had the number 3 offence and number 18 staff. Talk about your slugfests. What I find aggravating beyond belief is the comparison of overall offensive rankings: Runs: Sub-Urban Shockers 1, Rats 4. AVG: Sub-Urban Shockers 1, Rats 2. OBP: Sub-Urban Shockers 1, Rats 2. SLG...well, do I need to continue? Now I know what the Jays felt like opening against the Yankees.

I'd like to take this opportunity to rant at the Baseball Gods. My NL roto team features an offense with Bob Abreu, Andruw Jones, Ryan Klesko, Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols and Jim Thome - and has started the season in last place in home runs (and last place overall). Arrrrgggggghhhhhhhhhh.

Thank you.

My team has me a little worried- I drafted with the idea of position scarcity in mind, thinking there'd be cheap hitting around in the lte rounds, and wound up with too many mediocre guys in the OF (underestimated the savy of you guys, I guess). Plus, the Pirates aren't playing Craig Wilson, who I thought would be a sure thing for 20 HR. Don Baylor and Shish-K-Bob Brenly are frustrating me by playing Karros and Grace often ahead of Choi and Overbay. I'm relying too much on injury prone guys as well- JD Drew and AJ Burnett are dl'd. Against my better judgement, and the arguments I made for keeping F-Lo on this board, I took Woodward, figuring him for some decent OPS numbers, but so far he's looked clueless.

With Appier on board, I now have a surplus of SP, provided he, Radke and Dessens aren't all horrible this year. Appier was my reward for missing all the good waiver claims from the day before (I could've used one of the hitters that went- Tex, Ken Harvey, ect).

It is only the first week though, and hasty decisions will hurt you in a league where talent is spread so thin. The 10 team leagues I've been in have all-star players hit the waiver wire after a bad week, and this leads to horrid, short-sighted decisions a patient manager can profit from....

Out of curiosity, did anybody purchase the Stat-Tracker feature? I didn't realize how great it is to have until today.

Greets from the bottom of the heap - being a rookie in a league of savvy veterans, I certainly wasn't expecting to dominate, but heck, being on the bottom? The baseball gods certainly are fickle - most of my hitters well, sucked this week (only Bonds and Catalanotto were excellent) and my deep starting pitching was rocked pretty heavily also.

Looking back at the draft I can see some clear rookie mistakes that I hopefully won't make next year - don't punt two categories (saves, SB), don't take a lot of risky picks who might not end up on the big league roster, especially if that player is with a stupid organization (Cust, Kim) - playing time is very important! Also do get a good diversity of positional players - getting stuck short in the OF for a week is tough especially on counting stats.

Overall, I'm having a lot of fun, even if I am getting my butt kicked. HTH rankings can certainly change quickly - I was winning for a large portion of the week, only to drop quickly over the weekend. DP - Lopez hasn't hit either, and he's not getting playing time - yet.

My team has me a little worried- I drafted with the idea of position scarcity in mind

This is kind of a hot topic. Personally, I take the best available player for the first 8 rounds or so with very little regard to position. I fill in where I need after that. Other guys go even longer than I do, picking the best available for as many as 50% of the rounds before filling in their empty spots.

As a rookie who didn't know any better, I put a pretty high value on positional scarcity too. I wouldn't say I regret it... with my infield rock-solid at three thin positions (Tejada, Vidro, Hinske), I'm free to dabble in the likes of Rocco Baldelli and Gene Kingsdale rather than the likes of Neifi Perez and Alex Gonzalezes (don't try to tell me there's a right one and a wrong one). There's just a lot more potential to find outfielders with upside in the late rounds / free agent pool. Most Major League teams would rather keep a veteran defensive stalwart in place in the infield than give a shot to a kid who might hit more. As for pitchers... I think I drafted them high enough, I'm just not convinced I drafted the right ones. I blame that on poor scourting rather than poor strategy.

I hear you on the Stat Tracker thing Justin. Yesterday I thought Yahoo was just having technical problems when it wasn't giving me live stats. I think I'll buy it, the price is not unreasonable ($7.95).

I'm with you, Spicol. When I was handed the opportunity to get both Giambi and Delgado, whatever plan I started with went out the window. I still think getting two of the best 1B in a 20-team league was miraculous, but I paid the price in the outfield, where the Walrus is anemic except for Garret Anderson. I frequently punt SB or SV, but wound up looking for cheap speed in my OF, as the multi-category guys were snapped up while "best available" spelled pitching to me in 7 of the next 9 rounds, and to my utter astonishment, I ended up with three closers.

The first pick I made with a position in mind is the one I regret most -- in the 13th, I reached for Brandon Larson as my (eventual) 3B. Every draft is unique, and my only consistent strategy is to react to what I perceive to be happening, but I usually ignore positions until the middle rounds. On the other hand, I rank A-Rod, Piazza and Soriano quite a bit higher than I would if they were OF or 1B, so if they're the best available on my turn, I'm delighted. I do think it's a mistake to overvalue the 10th-best guy at those scarce positions, when the 20th isn't much worse.

As a rookie who didn't know any better, I put a pretty high value on positional scarcity too. I wouldn't say I regret it... with my infield rock-solid at three thin positions (Tejada, Vidro, Hinske), I'm free to dabble in the likes of Rocco Baldelli and Gene Kingsdale rather than the likes of Neifi Perez and Alex Gonzalezes

I'm not trying to knock your strategy, because everyone has a different way of skinning a cat and there aren't hard and fast rules, but I'll use your draft to exemplify why the best available player strategy is pretty effective.

You picked Tejada at 1, Vidro at 2 and Hinske at 5. Arguably and for the sake of simplification, Tejada and Hinske were the best available players when you picked them so let's pick on Vidro, who clearly wasn't the best hitter available when you chose him and was your best example of a positional scarcity pick. The drafter choosing the best available player might have chosen Mike Sweeney or Pat Burrell for their number 2 pick and then waited for a 2B, perhaps Mark Ellis in Round 16. That late round is right around the time you were trying to shore up your outfield and took Jay Gibbons. I ask, who's better?

Mike Sweeney and Mark Ellis
OR
Jose Vidro and Jay Gibbons

Sweeney and Ellis conservatively give you about 180 Runs, 170 RBI, 12 Steals and about 300/380/480. Vidro and Gibbons give you 180 Runs, 170 RBI, 3 Steals and 280/350/480 at best. The difference isn't huge but neither is the difference between 1st place and 5th place.

There's a big gap between the premier hitters (like Sweeney) and the good hitters at scarce positions (Vidro, Posada etc). The gap is almost non-existent between the late round middle infielder who plays full time than that late round OF who plays full time and that's the kind of thing that makes the best available player strategy works so well. You just have to make the right late round choices.

Geoff-
I've noted F-Lo's lack of PT and hitting, but that still doesn't easy my concerns about Woodward. When I saw he was there and I needed a SS, all the Batter's Boxers' voices (ok, not really voices cause I've never spoken to any of you) popped in my head about how Wood was a 20 HR SS who could post an OPS comparable to Jeter. Not that it won't happen, but I have more doubts than those voices I listened to...

In his attempt to stake a definitive claim to being "the good Alex Gonzalez," AG's hitting over .500 after a 3/3 afternoon. He's at 15/28 with 8 doubles and 5 BB, good for a 1.427 OPS. I've pretty much given up on him being a star (the same way I did with Chris Carpenter after drafting him every year), but he could actually fill some of that promise he showed eons ago.

re: position scarcity
I guess I got accustomed to playing in those all-star leagues for too long, where drafting an elite C, SS or 2B was usually a good idea because of the volume of good hitters available for free. The difference between Piazza and Damain Miller is bigger than the difference between Shawn Green and Brad Wilkerson, plus there's always a shocker season from an OF or 1B, whereas a Paul Loduca isn't that common.

That said, in an OPS league, a hacking mass type at any position hurts you more, so ideally you want someone that won't kill your averages while racking up counting stats. That's why I made sure to get an all-star catcher and better than average middle infielders. The problem is that while I have no one that hurts my averages, I also have no one to really boost them either. I also drafted too much starting pitching on the idea that bad pitching will hurt you more than good hitting will help. But my good pitching was bad the first week, so that hasn't worked out...

As an aside- the dumbest stat I've every seen used in fantasy ball- in one of the league's I'm in this year, they're counting holds...not as bad as counting errors or balks or menacing stare: deer in headlight ratio, but still pretty useless.

Oh boy (rubs hands together)... the only thing I like better than a good ol' argument is a good ol' argument with lots of numbers involved. Upfront disclaimer: this was my virgin draft and I'm under no illusions that I got it right or even close to right. My point in carrying on this discussion is not to try and prove I'm right, because I'm not convinced that I am, but rather to further my knowledge and increase my chances of kicking butt next year.

Predictions are of course very difficult, but that's what this is all about. Let's defer to a reputable source, Baseball Prospectus 2003 and the PECOTA system. It doesn't cover R or RBI, but as you say those are close for the players in question. I'll also concede the edge in SB, and note that since none of these players are huge threats that edge is not significant.

The following table shows the PECOTA predictions for each of the 4 players and the combined numbers for each pair. Note that the combined numbers here are weighted by the predicted at-bats. (Taking straight averages actually makes my players look better).

						
	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG
Sweeney	509	0.314	0.390	0.527			
Ellis	381	0.254	0.328	0.373	0.288	0.363	0.461
-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Vidro	555	0.306	0.367	0.486			
Gibbons	467	0.262	0.330	0.481	0.286	0.350	0.484

These numbers are very close. Since my players are both performing at an above-average hitting level, my significant edge in ABs is important - the extra at-bats help my team in the rate stats and not just the counting stats.

But you're giving me too much credit, I took Gibbons in the 14th and Ellis wasn't taken until the 16th. So let's run the numbers again with the second baseman that was taken in the 14th, Eric Young, in place of Ellis.

						
	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	AVG	OBP	SLG
Sweeney	509	0.314	0.390	0.527			
Young	373	0.276	0.335	0.371	0.298	0.367	0.461
-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Vidro	555	0.306	0.367	0.486			
Gibbons	467	0.262	0.330	0.481	0.286	0.350	0.484

Now the "best available player" strategy definitely looks better, but not every-week-of-the-season better. Again the extra at-bats are helping my team, and more importantly to my mind is what I mentioned earlier about freely available talent.