Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Not everything in Blue Jay land is perfect; Doug Creek looks shaky, and I'm not impressed with Jason Dubois' bat speed. But there is plenty of reason for optimism.

Shannon Stewart's bat is electric, he's in midseason form. Eric Hinske's no longer 0-for-Florida; he's going to be just fine with the stick, and might win a few games with -- of all things -- his glove. Tanyon Sturtze is a completely different pitcher than he was in his nightmare 2002 season.

It was an excellent afternoon for the Blue Jays, easy 6-2 winners over Tampa Bay, and I can't express how happy I am to be watching baseball again. J.P Ricciardi joined Rob Faulds and John Cerutti in the booth for a couple of innings, and Sturtze, after three terrific innings of work, was an entertaining TV guest. Paul Godfrey also made an appearance, endorsing his GM as a judge of talent, and talking about the club's aggressive new marketing campaign.

Not much has changed with the Sportsnet crew; Faulds called a pitch "outside, for strike one" and didn't know if Stewart's bases-clearing double was a grand slam, a foul ball or a line drive out. Cerutti was tolerable, asking his usual softball questions and making only the most obvious comments. Nobody expected the Ricciardi interview to be great broadcast journalism.

J.P. believes the Jays have "carried over from the second half," and praised his team's enthusiasm and excellent work ethic. Asked about the difference between now and a year ago, the GM was candid: "We're going forward, instead of trying to survive." He dodged Rule 5 questions with a comment that he intends to "keep stockpiling players," no matter how they are acquired.

Ricciardi also praised the "outstanding" springs of Corey Thurman and Mike Smith, who he envisions as a reliever down the road. Most importantly, he dropped a strong hint that Jayson Werth is the front-runner for an OF job. "We talk about that every day," J.P. admitted. He also acknowledged the difficult early schedule -- "we'll be facing a lot of tough left-handers; Wells, Santana, Fossum..." -- and suggested that the 25-man roster would keep that stretch in mind, then changes may be made.

The 2B and SS of the future, Dominic Rich and Russ Adams, showed their stuff, setting the table for Stewart's fourth RBI of the game and Hinske's first of the spring, on a soft opposite-field flare. They also combined on a nifty defensive play to erase a baserunner on a grounder into the hole.

Other thoughts: Tampa's defence is just horrible. That notoriously aggressive baserunner Carlos Delgado took second when 1B Lee Stevens muffed a cutoff throw, and in a huge play-not-made that will not show on the box score, 3B Jared Sandberg dropped a catchable pop foul that allowed Shannon Stewart to stay alive and deliver his 3-run double.

Cliff Politte looked good. I've always contended he needs regular work to stay sharp, and today he blew the express past the abysmal Greg Vaughn (the 'golden sombrero' -- 4 Ks; Faulds dubbed him "Senor Sitdown") but also fanned Stevens on an off-speed pitch, either a splitter or a new changeup. Jeff Tam was OK, working his way out of an inning after being nearly decapitated by a Carl Crawford liner.

I absolutely love Adams and Rich. They have a similar approach at the plate, and sliced identical opposite-field singles to spark a rally. Rich also drew a walk, and showed his range on a flare to shallow CF. Adams, who has benefitted from being around the classy Mike Bordick, takes a lot of pitches, and you can tell he's a confident two-strike hitter. He spoiled a 3-2 pitch he didn't like, recognized a curve and just missed hitting it hard, fouling it straignt back. Then Tosca showed his confidence in the kid's bat control, sending the plodding Huckaby, and Russ ripped a potential RBI double just a bit foul. He finally lined out to CF, but it was a big-league AB if I ever saw one.

Jason Dubois has a tremendous eye, and no doubt prodigious power, but I saw no evidence of big-league bat speed -- he was late on a lot of pitches all day. Forget the idea of carrying him on the big club; this kid needs lots of AB in the minors. I still hope they can work something out to keep him, but he would be no help this year.

Of three LH relievers on the day, Doug Creek looked the worst. Sturtze, who joined the telecast for an inning after his fine performance, praised Creek's slider and said he's "really tough on lefthanded batters," but a 2-out wild pitch was typical -- against RH hitters, Creek was all over the place. Tim Young, who may not even be as tall as Politte, fooled uber-prospect Josh Hamilton and got out of his inning with a DP grounder, but I liked Trever Miller best. He's taller, can get RH batters out, and challenges hitters.

I have about a thousand other observations, including a dissertation on Hinske's fielding -- he was sensational today -- but I'll shut up for now.
Lots To Like | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pepper Moffatt - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 03:40 PM EST (#94396) #
http://economics.about.com
I've been listening to the game over the net (I'm in Rochester, so no Canadian TV for me). It sounds like Stewart had a terrific game. Doug Creek is scaring me, tho.
_steve - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 03:46 PM EST (#94397) #
Something not to like: Vernon (305) Wells' last two AB's --> 2 K's on 6 pitches!!
Pepper Moffatt - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 04:06 PM EST (#94398) #
http://economics.about.com
Err.. what does (305) stand for?

A good game to listen to. It's put me in the baseball mood.

I don't know if anyone else is in the Rochester area, but the Rochester Sports Garden just opened up two of their batting cages. They're token machines, 14 pitches for a buck ($1.50 Cdn). I have a feeling my wallet is going to be pretty light tonight.

I'll have to get some hitting tips from Coach next time I'm in T.O.

Mike
_Eric C - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 04:44 PM EST (#94399) #
http://www.bluejayway.ca
Vernon's 305 OBP.

I agree those strikeouts were disgusting.
Coach - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 04:51 PM EST (#94400) #
Mike, I charge by the hour, payable in beer, for hitting instruction.

I forgot to mention Tanyon Sturtze. He was superb, with a new lower arm angle he credits to pitching coach Gil Patterson, and a new approach -- using his off-speed pitches earlier in the count. That 75-mph split-finger and accurate slider are better than his somewhat straight fastball. He looked like he was ready to go six innings, and that Tampa lineup wasn't going to beat him. He was also good company when he put on a headset and joined the broadcast.

And Hinske? No Gold Glove votes from me for a guy who double clutches before every throw, but I guess they call it a timing mechanism, and it's working. He made a fantastic play, cutting in front of the SS to get the speedy Crawford, and almost turned a 5-3 double play, but the ump didn't agree he had tagged the lead runner.

Tom Wilson, who looks fitter this year, had another base hit, and word is, he might even be tried as an OF. Chris Woodward, in his first spring AB, ripped a hard liner to left for a single, and showed no sign of his groin or hamstring problem. I can't stop smiling; this was an excellent fix for my baseball habit.
_DS - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 04:59 PM EST (#94401) #
Russ Adams looked mighty impressive, working the count and playing heads-up defense. I would not be surprised given his work ethic and obvious baseball smarts that he'll be in AAA by the end of the year, with perhaps even a September callup.

I was kind of surprised by Dominic Rich. I was expecting a wiry type like Woodward more than the stocky build that he possesses.

Sturtze looks like he could be better than expected, almost back to his 2001 form. But of course, he was up against the likes of Greg Vaughn and Rey Ordonez (who I can't believe is batting second), neither of which is a ML calibre hitter.

Creek was awful, and guaranteed contract or not, he won't last April if he keeps pitching like that. The Jays have too many other quality options, and Creek doesn't make enough to lose sleep over. Seeing the other options the Jays have, I'm surprised he got the deal he did. But since Creek was signed so early, I don't think JP anticipated he would be able to get as many good lefty arms in to camp as he did.

I really hope Werth is sent down, just so he plays everyday. He doesn't need to be in a platoon situation, he needs the at-bats.
_Spicol - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 05:02 PM EST (#94402) #
LOOGY's never look good in the spring because they face RH and LH batters since they're just getting work in. They don't get used as they would during the season. As much as I don't think he should make this team, we can't take Creek's performance at face value...if Tosca uses him correctly during the season, he will be serviceable.
robertdudek - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 05:16 PM EST (#94403) #
Coach,

I also noticed that Dubois was late. I'm wondering, though, if it could be a pitch recognition thing. Perhaps he's more of a guess hitter and can get away with it in A ball because pitchers don't have the command to throw breaking stuff on the paint consistently (so he just looks fast ball).

In modern baseball, distance hitting is almost directly proportional to bat speed, and Dubois has shown he can hit the ball a long way. It might be that he's using a bat that's a bit too heavy. As I said, perhaps poor pitch recognition means he's starting his swing late and therefore he's behind on everything.

I was also impressed with Fagan's power, and given that he draws a ton of walks, he could be a useful chip down the road.
Coach - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 05:40 PM EST (#94404) #
Robert, to me it looks like Dubois is just a bit slow getting that big body in gear. He recognizes pitches just fine, in fact, he's got a very good eye. He didn't swing at one bad pitch, took some close ones, and jumped on everything he liked -- it's just that he consistently didn't get it around quick enough, by 1/10 of a second or so. It did look like a kid using a bat that was too heavy, and I'm not saying the timing will never come, but I was a bit disappointed. Jason does not need to be a bench player right now, he needs AB somewhere.

I missed Fagan's hit while opening another Sleeman's; too bad he got erased by a baserunning blunder, but sure, he's another long-range possibility. J.P.'s "stockpile" is getting pretty deep.

Spicol, I agree that Creek is strictly a LOOGY; he's so cautious with RH batters it's like he fears the worst. Sturtze stifled a laugh talking about Creek last year vs. righties. But it's quite possible DS is right, and Doug's a rare J.P. mistake. At least those don't cost millions of dollars over several years, like a certain former GM's foolishness did.
robertdudek - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 06:00 PM EST (#94405) #
I agree that Dubois needs to go to AA
_Chuck Van Den C - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 07:12 PM EST (#94406) #
It was refreshing to hear Ricciardi talk about players like Wells and Hudson needing to learn to be more selective. While I had no doubt that he thought this, it was still comforting to hear him say it. If he's saying it to the public, you know he's telling these guys directly (now getting them to work on this is something else entirely, but at least they've heard the message).

Today's game featured such a contrast in management quality, didn't it? I can't imagine any of the three-headed LaMar/Bonifay/Thrift beast uttering such obvious remarks about the need for free swingers to learn to draw walks. Their ilk would prefer to talk about Rey Ordonez's veteran leadership and the need to manufacture runs and Piniella's intentions to teach the young players how to win, yada yada yada.

Does anyone else find it odd that Wells is batting third on the watch of a GM who is obviously very hands on with respect to the day-to-day operation of the team? Is this a bone that he's throwing Tosca (i.e., letting Tosca decide on the batting order) or do people think that batting Wells third is his idea as well? If people around here are squawking about the batting order, you know Keith Law is all the moreso.
Gitz - Saturday, March 08 2003 @ 09:01 PM EST (#94407) #
Is it me or is Hinske a natural fit in the three-hole? I know you run into problems having back-to-back-to-back LH hitters at 2-3-4, but it seems a waste of Eric's extra-base ability to have him hit second or even sixth, after Delgado and crew have cleaned up. Even if batting order is useless except for that first inning, Wells does not seem a good fit for that three-slot; give me those three OBP guys -- Stewart, Cat, Hinske -- in front of Delgado, and I'll give you a team that is often ahead 2-0 after the first inning.

By the way, we got our first taste of spring ball here in the Pacific northwest. The Mariners/Royals game was on, and I share Coach's joy in seeing baseball again. Here's all you need to know about the Royals: Michael Tucker hit lead-off.

Recently I read somewhere in BP (sorry, not sure where) that no team should ever spend more than $2 million on a first baseman. Mike Sweeney is hauling in $11 million per. Sweeney is a wonderful hitter -- the ball jumps off his bat, and he's got moderate power and patience -- but he'll be 30-years-old this year, he's never hit 30 home runs (to be fair, he's hit 29 twice), and he has a career .880 OPS. If Carlos Delgado (.944 career OPS), who is only a year older than Sweeney, isn't worth $17 million, adjusted economics or not, is Sweeney worth his salary? Just raising the question, that's all.

I know I've said that spring stats are useless, but seeing Edgar Martinez play today reminded me again of my first year (1994) in Arizona. The Peoria complex is really tremendous, and I spent a lot of time there; the M's share it with the Padres, so I got a variety of teams. Anyway, Edgar was in the middle of an insane 17-25 streak or something or other, with his usual walks along with it, and even when he made outs they were simply rockets. I don't think he swung and missed, or even fouled a ball off, or swung at a bad pitch. They say pitchers are ahead of the hitters at this point? Somebody forgot to tell Edgar that. And to repeat: get to Florida. Soon.
_Jonny German - Sunday, March 09 2003 @ 12:58 AM EST (#94408) #
My question is, is Stewart stuck on being leadoff and leadoff only, or is he just against hitting number 3? Because I like the looks of this:

Cat
Stewart
Hinske
Delgado
Phelps
Wells
Woodward
Myers/Wilson
Hudson

Maybe Keith Law doesn't care about the batting order... The research says it doesn't actually make much difference, and the Jays aren't planning on anything more than 3rd place this year.

Here are Creek's splits from last year:


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 130 37 36 13 0 5 23 25 31 .277 .409 .492 .901
vs. Left 88 0 21 2 0 5 18 10 25 .239 .330 .432 .762

If I was JP, my game plan would go like this: If I'm confident somebody else will pick him up (i.e. I won't have to eat the contract), I release Doug... send him up the Creek if you will. If not, I hang on to him for at least April. His numbers above indicate that he might be fine if used properly as a LOOGY.

Incidentally, what is the signifigance of R vs. Right? Is that R scored by RH runners (meaningless), or R scored with RH batters at the plate (redundant with RBI)?

Hey Coach, that unformatted text is coming out awfully small.
Coach - Sunday, March 09 2003 @ 10:03 AM EST (#94409) #
Jonny's right about preformatted text being too small, so I took the liberty of editing his comment (something I never do to anyone's but my own) and now everyone should be able to see Creek's splits.

There have been no complaints about -- and considerable praise for -- the smaller font in articles since we moved to the new server, but it has made stats harder to read. On the other hand, if you don't use the "pre" command, tables are nearly impossible to line up. It's a quirk of Greymatter, our blog software.

In archived entries and comments, you can always select View/Text Size/Larger from the IE menu (View/Text Zoom/Larger in Netscape) but that makes everything huge. Here's a workaround for posting legible tables in the future. Use a text editor like Notepad, select Courier font, and be sure no tabs are involved -- line up the data using the space bar. Copy and paste the finished, unformatted table between HTML "pre" tags. Use the following code, but substitute angle brackets for the square ones in the example:

[font size="+0"][pre]
one   two   three
4 5 6
7 8 9
10 11 12

[/pre][font size="-1"]

That makes it bigger, displays the table properly, then restores the default BB font. I don't know why vertical spacing is off, but we're getting close. If anyone has a suggestion to improve this process, please e-mail me, or post it here.
_Spicol - Sunday, March 09 2003 @ 10:03 AM EST (#94410) #
Incidentally, what is the signifigance of R vs. Right? Is that R scored by RH runners (meaningless), or R scored with RH batters at the plate (redundant with RBI)?

Since what you are seeing is the Batting Line Against, for want of a better phrase, it doesn't make sense to break down runs into splits (ie. so what if 42 left handed batters scored against him, you're right, it's meaningless) and isn't tracked down to that level anyway. So, to answer your Q, there is no significance and they always stick all of the runs scored in the RHB split.

Now, as for Creek, go to 3-year splits instead of just 1-year and you'll see quite a useful LOOGY. The walks are still a concern but he's not that bad if used properly. He really supresses EBH against lefties.

vs. Right: 262/393/481 (874 OPS for those bad in math) in 397 AB
vs. Left: 202/319/324 (643 OPS) in 262 AB

What concerns me is that I don't know if JP realizes the splits. He said when Creek was signed and on more than one occasion since, that Creek is a guy who can "give us an inning or even two".
_Chuck Van Den C - Sunday, March 09 2003 @ 11:15 AM EST (#94411) #
What concerns me is that I don't know if JP realizes the splits. He said when Creek was signed and on more than one occasion since, that Creek is a guy who can "give us an inning or even two".

I admire and respect JP Ricciardi immensely. That said, I cannot fathom the Creek signing.

Creek's last good season was 5 years ago in Japan. In the majors, he has never had a good season. While his career K rate is terrific (263 in 253 IP), his BB and HR rates have been absolutely horrible.

I'm no fan of spending a roster spot on a 40-inning LOOGY, but it's not like Creek's 762 OPS vs LHB screams LOOGY anyway. A true LOOGY will absolutely own LHB's. 762 <> Own.

I can't believe that Creek will be any better than any of the waiver wire southpaws Ricciardi could have picked up for free during the spring. Creek has no business wasting a spot on the 40-man roster or deserving a guaranteed, non-minimum contract.

I would love to know what about Creek piqued Ricciardi's interest. I see nothing in Creek's record to warrant the signing.
_Jordan - Monday, March 10 2003 @ 11:07 AM EST (#94412) #
Does anyone else find it odd that Wells is batting third on the watch of a GM who is obviously very hands on with respect to the day-to-day operation of the team? Is this a bone that he's throwing Tosca (i.e., letting Tosca decide on the batting order) or do people think that batting Wells third is his idea as well?

Chuck, I've wondered about this, too. The only sensible advantage of Wells in the 3-hole is the R-L-R-L order at the top of the lineup. That certainly would be a good thing, though I'm not sure it justifies a .300 OBP in the third position. From what I've seen this spring, Vernon is not getting any more patient or selective at the plate: a lot of first-pitch groundouts, too many three-pitch Ks. He's a smart guy and a hard-working guy, and I'm sure he's doing his best, but he's a hacker at heart and it's going to take more than one spring training to fix that. Putting him in the three-hole, a high-pressure role that encourages RBI-thinking, will not help him at all. Unless this is indeed a bone thrown to Tosca, I don't see the point.

I say Stewart-Catalanotto-Hinske-Delgado-Phelps-Wells-Woodward-Catcher-Hudson (I don't see Shannon going into the #2 slot in his walk year) until such time as Vernon shows he's become a better judge of the strike zone. The long-term development of these core players is more important, to my mind, than whether opposing managers can inflict their LOOGYs on the top of the Jays lineup.
_Spicol - Monday, March 10 2003 @ 12:26 PM EST (#94413) #
I say Stewart-Catalanotto-Hinske-Delgado-Phelps-Wells-Woodward-Catcher-Hudson (snip). The long-term development of these core players is more important, to my mind, than whether opposing managers can inflict their LOOGYs on the top of the Jays lineup.

Absolutely. I like this lineup. Besides, if it is late enough in the game that a LOOGY is brought in to pitch, Cat could be pinch hit for, neutralizing the 3 LHB-in-a-row argument. It's not as if Cat's defense is stellar enough that Tosca would be apt to leave him in for a possible contribution in the field.

That said, is it really so terrible that those 3 batters hit against LHP? We don't really know what Cat can do against them since Texas used him pretty much strictly vs. RHP (only 91 AB against southpaws in the last 3 yrs) with ok results. Also, you want Hinske to develop that aspect of his game...he needs to learn to hit lefties sometime and it's clearly better to do so this year, when wins don't mean as much as say 2004, when the Jays are looking to contend. Lastly, Delgado probably isn't as bad vs. LHP as last year would lead us to believe (685 OPS). His 2001 (771 OPS), 2000 (959 OPS) and 1999 (1021 OPS) numbers lead me to believe he's capable of much more and even an 800 OPS against lefties is far better than what most Jays can muster.
Lots To Like | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.