Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Here’s a neat article, submitted to us by a keen-eyed poster, about one of the Rule 5 picks in the Jays’ camp, Jason Dubois. Plucked from the Cubs’ High-A affiliate in Daytona Beach, Jason drew some notice with a three-run jack against the Reds Wednesday. But he was turning heads already with his outstanding work ethic and good plate mechanics, not to mention his 6’5”, 225-lb frame.

Will Dubois make the team? Hard to say – he put up great numbers in 2002, but the last A-Ball Rule 5er the Jays carried for an entire season was DeWayne Wise, and look how well that turned out. Toronto has three promising Rule 5 picks in camp (Dubois, Aquilino Lopez, and Gary Majewski), and of those three, Lopez would seem to have the inside track on a full season in the majors (he’s old enough that the culture and competition shock shouldn’t be too much for him).

It would be great if the Jays could find a way to keep all three on the roster, but operating with a virtual 22- or 23-man roster is no way to continue the franchise’s development. And though deals have sometimes been worked out with the originating clubs where Rule 5 picks are concerned (it's how the A's got Eric Hinske from the Cubbies), there's no indication the Cubs and White Sox would even want to talk trade on Dubois and Majewski. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Lopez as the only season-long Rule 5 survivor. But JP is a master of the youneverknow.

Posted by Jordan on Friday, March 07 2003 @ 08:57 AM EST.

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Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 09:37 AM EST (#94616) #

http://economics.about.com
Would it really be that harmful to keep all 3 Rule Vers? I know it's unorthodox, but the Jays aren't going to compete for anything this year.

BP predicts Dubois hitting .254/.329/.437 in 187AB with a VORP of exactly 0. That isn't awful for a 5th outfielder. I think he can help the club in a limited role this year, then spend 2004 in Syracuse. Dubois will do a lot more for "the next great Jays team" than guys like Doug Linton ever will (or Kelvim Escobar for that matter).

Mike

_R Billie - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 10:57 AM EST (#94617) #

The odds are against Dubois but he does look like a guy who will hit and hit with power, and any time those guys come along you have to give them a chance. He would probably be Russell Branyan this year in the big leagues which the Jays could probably live with. But the strike against him is he can't play center; he can probably barely play the corners though he showed a very good arm from right field against the Reds.

Dave Till - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:04 AM EST (#94618) #

I haven't studied the evidence, but I would guess that keeping a Rule V player on a major league team for a full year usually stunts his growth. Would DeWayne Wise, Lou Thornton, or Willie Canate have become more productive had they been given a chance to develop?

I seem to recall that Manuel Lee won a batting title in the low minors before being drafted by the Jays. Would he have had a more productive career had he not lost that year of seasoning? And would he actually have fielded that ground ball that went through his legs in that Jays-Tigers game in 1987? :-)

I'd only keep a Rule V player on a major league roster if (a) he could contribute to the major league team right now, even if only in a limited role, and (b) he's clearly able to handle the challenge of being temporarily over his head.

Corey Thurman was an example of a useful Rule V player, and I think Lopez might be one too. Not so sure about someone like Dubois, unless he can be put on the DL with one of those phantom "injuries" that Rule V players always seem to suffer from (ingrown hangnail, bruised uvula, sprained psyche). If he's good enough to keep, he's good enough for the Cubs to want back.

Dave Till - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:06 AM EST (#94619) #

The last sentence should read something like "If he's good enough to draft, he's good enough for the Cubs to want back."

Must proofread posts more closely... :-)

_Jordan - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:20 AM EST (#94620) #

bruised uvula

I saw Bruised Uvula at the Warehouse one night. They totally rocked.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:22 AM EST (#94621) #

http://economics.about.com
The ideal solution would be for J.P. to call up the Cubbies and say,

"Look.. we like this Dubois kid a lot and we're prepared to keep him on the major league roster for the entire season. However, it would be in his best interest and ours if he played in AA/AAA for the season. So we're prepared to pay you $X to allow us to do that. If you don't accept, we'll keep him in the bigs for the season, and you get nothing."

I think the Cubbies would take a reasonable-ish offer, because they don't have anything to lose. It's not like they're competing with the Jays.

RE: The White Sox and Majewski are a different matter, since the Sox and the Jays could conceivably battle for the wild card. So Kenny Williams could turn around and say, "No thanks. Keep Majewski on the 25 roster and use up a spot. It can only help us".

Mike
(Game Theorist to the Stars)

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:42 AM EST (#94622) #

http://economics.about.com
Thanks for the edit!

My comments about a possible trade were snipped off.. maybe J.P. can work a deal with the Cubbies to get Dubois.

How about Escobar for Dubois, Steve Smyth and Todd Wellemeyer.

Or maybe Escobar + cash for Dubois and Bellhorn.

Mike

_Jordan - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:52 AM EST (#94623) #

Sorry, Mike -- I was a little too aggressive with the pruning shears!

_Richard - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:53 AM EST (#94624) #

I'm with Mike on this one.I'm taking a step back from the exuberance of spring,and for me the upside of these guys warrant retaining their rights.

It would mean a 4 man bench for the short term.I think a rule 5 player must put in some MLB time before being put on the D.L.,does anybody know how this works?

As for Wise,Thorton,Will Canate looking back all these guys were classic "tool " players.I never really understood why the Jays(read Gord Ash) thought so highly of Wise.As a 21 year old A level player he hit .253 with only 42 bb's,lots of steals (35)and 13 triples.Obviously drafted for his speed and arm.I contend this type of player will never develop ,even if detoured for 1 year to the major's.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:53 AM EST (#94625) #

http://economics.about.com
No problem Jordan.. I was surprised how quickly you responded.

I'd just like to say again that you, Coach, Gideon et. al. are doing a great job! I think I spend more time on this site than I do on my own. :)

Mike

Craig B - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:10 PM EST (#94626) #

I contend this type of player will never develop

I just picked the first one I could think of...

As a 21-year old player in A ball in 1988, Kenny Lofton hit .214 in 186 at-bats, with 19 walks and 51 strikeouts and no power at all (6 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer).

robertdudek - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:26 PM EST (#94627) #

Geworge Bell seemed to develop quite nicely.

Coach - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:29 PM EST (#94628) #

So Kenny Williams could turn around and say, "No thanks. Keep Majewski on the 25 roster and use up a spot. It can only help us".

If Chicago doesn't want him back, I believe that means the end of Rule 5 restrictions, and he can go to Syracuse. My fingers are crossed. I painted the Dubois (training myself to pronounce it du-BOYZ is very difficult) scenario a while ago, but it requires going with 11 pitchers, and while I know many of you think that's unneccessary, it's what I'm pretty sure J.P. has in mind.

Jason's a lot more accomplished banger than that skinny Rule 5 kid the Jays stole from Philly and had to carry in 1981 -- what was his name again? He wasn't very useful; .233/.256/.350, 5 HR in 163 AB, and it took him two full years in the minors after that before he became a big-league regular. Now I remember, it was George Bell.

Coach - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:30 PM EST (#94629) #

Robert beat me to the punch on Geworge, who I think was called Jorge back then.

_Richard - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:42 PM EST (#94630) #

I'd still take my chances on a Dubuois,Cattlatanno,Hinske,Jay Gibbon's type rule 5 player vs. the Lofton/Wise/Thorton equivalent.

Wasn't aware that Hinske was a rule 5 pickup.Very interesting.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:52 PM EST (#94631) #

http://economics.about.com
Ooops.. I guess I wasn't clear on what I was getting at.

Let's try this again:

So Kenny Williams could turn around and say, "No thanks. Keep Majewski on the 25 roster and use up a spot. It can only help us. But if you try to send him down, we'll snap him back up".

The idea being that Kenny Williams can put JP between a rock and a hard place. The Cubbies on the other hand shouldn't really care how many wins the Jays get (because they're not directly competing), so a deal to help the Jays out would be more likely.

Cheers,

Mike

robertdudek - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 12:59 PM EST (#94632) #

Willie Upshaw and Kelly Gruber were Rule 5'ers. The Jays have had more Rule 5 success than any other organisation - by a colossal margin.

_Jordan - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 01:04 PM EST (#94633) #

Wasn't aware that Hinske was a rule 5 pickup. Very interesting.

Sorry, Richard, I should clarify my original phrasing --- the Cubs selected Scott Chaisson from Oakland in the 2000 Rule 5 Draft, and when they decided they wanted to keep him, they dealt Hinske to the A's as compensation. So Hinske ended up in Oakland not via a Rule 5 pick, but as a trade commodity to keep one. Think the Cubbies could use Eric at the hot corner these days?

robertdudek - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 01:10 PM EST (#94634) #

BTW,

I don't see why a team like the Orioles wouldn't pick up 5 guys every Rule 5 draft, evaluate them in camp, keep one, offer the other 4 back and with luck 2 of them will not be reclaimed and will get to go to double or triple A. Do this for 3 years and you can restock your farm system, in addition to your draft picks.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 01:13 PM EST (#94635) #

http://economics.about.com
Well, if the Orioles were a forward thinking organization they wouldn't be.. well.. the Orioles.

I guess the idea being that if a team is clever enough to try something like that, they're probably clever enough not to get themselves into such a deep hole like the Orioles currently are.

Mike

Gitz - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 01:23 PM EST (#94636) #

Can anyone name someone besides Gibbons who was a Rule 5 pick and has worked out in recent history? My mind always fill with Kimera Bartee when I hear Rule 5. Kimera Barteeeeeee, Kimera Barteeeeeee, Kimera Barteeeeeee. Try it. It's fun!

_Cristian Coucho - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 01:29 PM EST (#94637) #

I finally got my shiny new copy of BP2003. It took three weeks to get to me but all was forgiven when I opened the cardboard and discovered Josh Phelps on the cover. In their write-up on Dubois they mention that he missed two months last year with a broken wrist so it's possible he'll start the season on the roster and then disappear on the DL.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 01:29 PM EST (#94638) #

http://economics.about.com
There were some pretty good players taken in '99, including Johan Santana:

http://www.geocities.com/gyoung858/TPAlert/rule-v.htm

_dp - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 02:43 PM EST (#94639) #

I think the rule is that a team pays $50,000 for the rule V draftee, and if they demote him, the original club can pay $25,000 to get him back. Unless they work out a deal, the question for the Sox would be: do they want $50,000 or Majewski plus $25,000? If it was my club, I'd take the player and the cash, b/c the player can be worth a lot more than an extra $25k.

Dave Till - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 04:14 PM EST (#94640) #

I freely concede that the Jays made out like bandits in the Rule V draft in the 1980's. Besides Upshaw, Bell and Gruber, they also picked up Jim Gott and Jim Acker (don't laugh - he was useful once upon a time).

But this was all back when teams usually carried 10 pitchers, and sometimes only carried nine. If a team has 15 position players, they can afford to use up a spot on the 25-man roster. (And they only kept Gruber because Cleveland agreed to let the Jays send him down.)

And I don't recall other teams having the same level of success with the Rule V as the Jays.

I also think the average level of GM intelligence has gone up in the last few years, so there aren't that many obvious gems lying around any more. (Discuss.)

_Mick - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 04:54 PM EST (#94641) #

As I recall -- I was living in Ohio at the time -- the decision to let Gruber go was rather controversial but the loudmouth fans and the leering press were assuaged by the fact that the team had a couple of future Hall of Famers manning the proverbial hot corner ...

Brook Jacoby and Cory Snyder.

Don't laugh too hard; at the age of 24, the player most similar to Snyder, according to the inimitable Baseball-Reference.com was one Michael Jack Schmidt. Jacoby has no such historial precedent, but that same year, at the age of 27, his most similar player was Dave Nilsson, who was a legitimate All-Star at one point.

_Spicol - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 04:58 PM EST (#94642) #

I also think the average level of GM intelligence has gone up in the last few years, so there aren't that many obvious gems lying around any more. (Discuss.)

I don't know if the average level of intelligence has improved but the tools they use definitely have. Email, the Internet, cell phones and lap tops have made getting and getting scouting information that much easier, not to mention the work publications like Baseball America are doing that used to have to be done by the organizations themselves.

JP has admitted that no scout from the Jays ever scouted Corey Thurman before he was selected. Keith Law was poring over some minor league stats and elbowed his boss hard enough that he took notice. That would have been much harder to do in the 80's.

The Jays have had success utilizing the Rule V draft, no doubt about it, but I thought I'd bring up some of whom they lost via the draft as well...Mike Morgan, Geronimo Berroa, Xavier Hernandez, Graeme Lloyd and Jay Gibbons. Nobody earth shattering but neither was Manny Lee.

Craig B - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 05:14 PM EST (#94643) #

I don't see why a team like the Orioles wouldn't pick up 5 guys every Rule 5 draft, evaluate them in camp, keep one, offer the other 4 back and with luck 2 of them will not be reclaimed and will get to go to double or triple A.

Well for one, the draft is only three rounds long. :)

Seriously, though, a lot of teams don't draft Rule 5 picks because in order to get them, you have to cut your own roster down to have the room to take them. A lot of teams like the guys on their own 40-man more than the guys not on someone else's. I know that the Orioles really shouldn't... but there it is.

It also costs $50,000 to make the pick, so even players who go back put you $25,000 in the hole.

_jason - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 06:00 PM EST (#94644) #

Speaking of OFs, does anybody know who has the inside track on being the Jays 4th outfielder? I heard that they are leaning to sending Werth to AAA to work on his swing.

As for keeping Dubois, it doesn't seem like a desperate situation as the Jays seem to have an ever building supply of good young outfielders. (Cross, Ford-Griffin, Werth) It seems to be more important for the Jays to keep their pitchers from the Rule 5 so they can use them to bolster their much thinner minor-league pitching.

From the sounds of it, it's surprising to me that the Cubs wouldn't protect a player like Dubois, given they don't seem to have a lot of outfield depth. Although, I speak from a positon of ignorance when it comes to the Cubs minor-league situation.

robertdudek - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 06:05 PM EST (#94645) #

Craig,

I knew about the 3 rounds - just trying to exaggerate to make my point I guess.

I think the Rule 5 is a potentially valuable tool for teams that don't have a lot of prospects and therefore should have plenty of room on their 40 man roster. How much is 25 000/50 000 these days to a baseball team?

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