Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

I know, it was only last Tuesday that I posted a "prospecting" article featuring Aaron Gleeman's list, but it is that time of year, and the gang at Baseball Prospectus have not only weighed in with their Top 40+, but their approach is fascinating.

Steve Z linked to Part One of the BP roundtable in one of his comments on our previous thread, but here it is again. Rany Jazayerli listed his picks, then the other staff writers commented publicly. It's an excellent discussion, not only of the prospects, but of the different weights people give to the variables in compiling such a list. Yesterday, the Prospectus panel continued their friendly argument in Part Two, and Rany adjusted his ratings according to the opinions of his peers. Here's how it looks now:

Baseball Prospectus 2003 - Top 40 Prospects List:

1 Mark Teixeira, 3B, Texas
2 Hideki Matsui, RF, New York (AL)
3 Jose Reyes, SS, New York (NL)
4 Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland
5 Jose Contreras, SP, New York (AL)

6 Brandon Phillips, 2B/SS, Cleveland
7 Hee Seop Choi, 1B, Chicago (NL)
8 Jerome Williams, SP, San Francisco
9 Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
10 Chris Snelling, OF, Seattle

11 Jason Stokes, 1B, Florida
12 Rich Harden, SP, Oakland
13 Jesse Foppert, SP, San Francisco
14 Marlon Byrd, CF, Philadelphia
15 Michael Cuddyer, RF, Minnesota

16 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Seattle
17 Aaron Heilman, SP, New York (NL)
18 Brendan Harris, 3B, Chicago (NL)
19 Kurt Ainsworth, SP, San Francisco
20 Travis Hafner, 1B, Cleveland

21 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Anaheim
22 Joe Borchard, CF, Chicago (AL)
23 Scott Hairston, 2B, Arizona
24 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Florida
25 Jason Arnold, SP, Toronto

26 John Patterson, SP, Arizona
27 Casey Kotchman, 1B, Anaheim
28 Rocco Baldelli, OF, Tampa Bay
29 Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Florida
30 Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota

31 Wilson Betemit, SS, Atlanta
32 Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland
33 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Boston
34 Justin Huber, C, New York (NL)
35 Clint Nageotte, SP, Seattle

36 Juan Rivera, LF, New York (AL)
37 Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego
38 Jayson Werth, OF, Toronto
39 Joey Thurston, 2B, Los Angeles
40 Bobby Jenks, SP, Anaheim

Honorable Mentions

Bobby Basham, SP, Cincinnati
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit
Bozied/Nady/Gautreau, H, San Diego
Kevin Cash, C, Toronto
Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
Gavin Floyd, SP, Philadelphia
Ken Harvey, 1B, Kansas City
Brad Hawpe/Jack Cust, H, Colorado
Brandon Larson, 3B, Cincinnati
Todd Linden, LF, San Francisco
James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles
Miguel Olivo, C, Chicago (AL)
Adam Wainwright, SP, Atlanta
David Wright, 3B, New York (NL)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston

This is heavily weighted in favour of proximity to the big leagues, which makes it very helpful if you include prospects in a fantasy draft, or if you want to start predicting the 2003 Rookie of the Year winners. Many of the guys we've discussed in other threads are near the top -- the three outstanding Giants pitchers are all in the top 20, and unlike Aaron Gleeman's list, "veteran rookies" Matsui and Contreras were considered. That's why Kevin Cash rates an honourable mention, but longer-range potential Jays are absent. If it was a "highest ceiling" list, kids like Joe Mauer would move up even more, while the likes of Juan Rivera and Jayson Werth might not have been included.

Even when a group of experts reaches consensus on the definition of a prospect, the process remains subjective. Rany dropped Bobby Jenks from #31 to #40, but stubbornly refused to exclude him, and even asked why "everybody" hates him. Two words, R.J. -- Steve Dalkowski. The similarities extend from the awesome fastball and complete lack of control to some questionable off-field habits. Sometimes you have to look beyond the radar gun and the K rate. Credit to Rany for admitting that Jenks, Prince Fielder and others are "interesting to write about" (like I just did) -- perhaps being controversial is the overlooked Sixth Tool.

Jason Arnold inched up a few spots, not because of overwhelming support, but because a few others got downgraded; he's the sixth best SP prospect and 25th overall. Nate Silver was outvoted, but gave a nod to Jason Perry, one of the phenomenal 2002 Jays draft class. Now I don't want to steal Jordan's thunder before the next farm report, but this guy is certainly worth watching:

 AVG   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF HP  BB IB  SO  SB CS DP   SLG   OBP  
.425  30 106  25  45  85  6  2 10  36  0  0  6  12  2  19   0  2  3  .802  .508

That's what Perry did in Rookie-league Medicine Hat, earning a late-season promotion not to one of the short-season or "low A" clubs, but all the way up to the Florida State League. In other words, he started at a lower level than #1 pick Russ Adams, but vaulted into similar company in his first (partial) pro season. The former Georgia Tech star should get a full year in Dunedin next, and is chasing a lot of other promising lefty-swinging OF/1B/DH types in the system, but adds to the organizational depth that has been constantly upgraded since J.P. and his staff took over.

BTW, if you want to check out 2002 minor-league stats, there's no better place than the Baseball America Player Finder. It's where I learned that another of the Jays recent collegiate picks, Brad Hassey, the former Arizona Wildcat SS, was rewarded for a promising NY/Penn League season with a late callup to Syracuse. So he's another who has impressed the brass.

Speaking of Nate Silver, remember PECOTA? It's his new statistical tool to help predict breakout seasons and collapses. He applied it to a bunch of hitters on a Peter Gammons list, and we discussed the results on BB a while back. In case you care, and haven't seen it yet, here is the followup piece on the pitchers PG mentioned. The stuff about Jake Peavy (PECOTA says beware) is worth reading if you are interested in the development of young pitchers.

Posted by Coach on Saturday, February 01 2003 @ 01:18 AM EST.

Prospect-us | 13 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_dp - Saturday, February 01 2003 @ 05:53 PM EST (#97528) #

One player they ranked way too high (initially, they lowered him later but still I don't think he's Top 40) IMO is Jason Werth. If he were still behind the plate, I'd agree with the ranking, but I don't think as an OF he rates above Cash. Syracuse has the same dimensions as the Skydome, and Werth only slugged .445 there. Balanced against a .354 OB%, that's not enough for a RF. I'm not saying he won't improve on that, but at this point, especially given his high K rate, he'd probably get chewed up by ML pitchers.

Craig B - Saturday, February 01 2003 @ 08:05 PM EST (#97529) #

dp, I couldn't agree more on Jayson Werth. He had an excellent 2001 at AA, and that may be driving the rankings a little bit, but in my opinion even if you took 2001 heavily into account he's fifty spots too high. There are hundreds of players in the minors who can legitimately be called prospects... I don't see what separates Werth from 40 other guys who had a decent year at AA in the last couple of years, unless you think his offense will get a boost now that he is no longer catching.

I don't want to bash the list, since Primer/Prospectus have already had one ridiculous catfight about prospect lists. I think ranking the "top whatever" prospects from 1 to X is a ridiculous thing anyway, akin in stupidity to the college football polls. But even as lists go, this is an unusual one, especially with no real discussion going on (just a Babel of cut-and-pasted e-mails) to back it up. Putting Nady, Bozied, and Gautreau together (as well as Cust and Hawpe) is one of the strangest things I've seen in a prospect list.

Generally, though, if Prospectus has something to say about players, it's worth taking very seriously.

Gitz - Saturday, February 01 2003 @ 08:23 PM EST (#97530) #

I wonder how the list will appear in the book. Supposedly (hopefully!) it was shipped today (Feb. 1).

_Jonny German - Saturday, February 01 2003 @ 08:43 PM EST (#97531) #

I had a look into the crystal ball, and it turns out Toronto becomes the all-J Jays in 2005. (Okay, this turned out to be a big stretch, but it was fun anyway...)

1B Josh Phelps
2B Joe Lawrence
SS Jerson Perez
3B Josh Klimek
C Jose Umbria
LF John-Ford Griffin
CF Jason Perry
RF Jayson Werth
DH Jossephang Bernhardt
SP Jason Arnold
RP Jason Kershner

The general manager remains J.P. Ricciardi, who chooses to hire a complete unknown to replace Carlos Tosca as field manager, one Jonny German.

Coach - Sunday, February 02 2003 @ 12:23 PM EST (#97532) #

That's a very interesting list, Jonny. I get my crystal ball tuned up at a little place on Queen West; yours seems a bit fuzzy. Maybe you took it to the head shop next door?

The real '05 lineup features CF Vernon Wells and 3B Eric Hinske, although Wells will be traded that year if he still hasn't got the hang of the plate discipline thing. Joe Lawrence will be in the Canadian Baseball League, as a player-coach; Russ Adams is leading off and at 2B. Kershner, dizzy from the LOOGY revolving door, could be anywhere; Dave Bush has become the "relief ace" in a closerless bullpen. RF Gabe Gross hits behind Phelps. The rotation includes Halladay, Arnold, one of the other kids drafted in 2002, and (this is not too clear) two guys they got in the Hudson, Rios and Rich trades. Phelps is still the DH, as Perry and Griffin are more nimble in LF and at 1B. Kevin Cash does most of the catching, and Jayson Werth fills in almost everywhere. I still can't make out who that is at short, but (sorry, Jonny) it's definitely Tosca in the dugout.

I put my every-other-week ESPN column up yesterday, with "news" already discussed on BB in infinitely more detail. It's for people who are preparing for their drafts, and don't know the Jays as well as we do. You are welcome to argue about it here, though. So far, most of the negative feedback I'm getting concerns my apparently naive, optimistic assumption that Greg Myers is going to get more AB than he has in years, and be well worth a late pick or a small auction bid.

Well, I'm allowed to be wrong once or twice a year -- sorry about touting Lopez and Cruz in 2002 -- but I stand by this prediction. OK, it may not be a strict platoon; Wilson might start against some RH pitchers if Greg's old body needs a day off. But Huckaby and Cash will not be in the mix, unless Wilson slumps and Cash is killing AAA pitching, and even then not before July. Myers will be worth more to fantasy owners than he's been since 1996, will have a typical .320 to .350 OBP, and will break his career high of 11 HR, set two years ago in just 161 AB. Wilson's also worth a couple of bucks or a late round selection.

I continue to be bullish on Halladay, Delgado, Politte and Catalanotto; if Phelps is eligible as a C in your league, he soars in value. Hinske and Wells are fine picks. Hendrickson is worth a flyer, and so are Woodward and Hudson. Stewart and Escobar top the most-likely-to-be-dealt-midseason list, so they are draftable in a MLB universe, but I downgrade them slightly in an AL loop, as the odds of changing leagues in a trade are 16-13. I'm avoiding Cory Lidle's first half; if he is inexpensive, stash him on your bench, or let someone else draft him and trade for him later.

Having given all this free advice, I expect everyone in the Batter's Box league on Yahoo will be trying to beat me with it, so my team in that league may end up Jays-free, while I stock up on NL bargains, White Sox and Royals.

_DS - Sunday, February 02 2003 @ 01:28 PM EST (#97533) #

Coach,

You can't honestly think that JP would trade Wells even if his OBP stays a moderate range, say .320? To get a CF of his calibre, for the same cost, is remote at best. Even if he maintined the status quo for the rest of his career, I don't think too many people would have a problem with his production. A "small market" team such as Toronto, can't afford to always punt players just because he's not the ideal CF. I loved watching Devo play CF, and although he wasn't an ideal CF, the problem with him was not so much the offense, but the fact he was leading off. Cost wise, I can't think of a CF that is more valuable than Wells right now. It's not like he's Terrence Long or something.

Coach - Sunday, February 02 2003 @ 03:19 PM EST (#97534) #

DS: I don't think Wells, or Hudson for that matter, will ever be traded in one of those one-sided "dumps" (Fullmer, Mondesi...) but neither player fits the Ricciardi blueprint just yet. Hudson's game is better suited for a run-and-gun NL-style team, and there are a lot of 2B options on the horizon. Vernon has a better chance than O-Dog of making the necessary changes, improving his ratio of walks to whiffs, and becoming a long-term cornerstone, but if he can't adjust, J.P. might consider dealing him -- for equivalent talent -- before he gets as costly as a Torii Hunter. The absence of a reasonable CF alternative in the system, and his bargain salary, make's V's job secure for the next couple of years, and I remain a huge fan who is optimistic he'll improve. It was just a throwaway line, as "forecasting" the '05 lineup is not exactly a science anyway. Lawrence might not be in the CBL, either; he could be in another independent league or coaching in his home town.

_Jonny German - Sunday, February 02 2003 @ 10:35 PM EST (#97535) #

Actually Coach I'm out in Kitchener, good crystal ball tuners are impossible to find here.

I'm sad to see Woodward & Hudson aren't in your 2005 middle-infield picture, for non-scientific reasons. I'm one of the many who over-value the O-Dog for his energy, his charisma, his "JP the pimp" line, his great nickname. Woodward I like as a feel good story of the guy who went from aspiring utility infielder to everyday shortstop, displacing the "can't miss" prospect. And I was at the game where he launched 3 bombs, so I'm convinced he can mash.

I don't like the thought of Phelps as lifetime DH just on principle. I'm also not convinced that John-Ford's going to be a star, so I say trade the good Griff for pitching, Phelps on first, and Rent-a-Stick for the DH. Are you sure Tosca will still be around? I was of the impression that they see him as a developmental type manager, good with the kids but not suited to piloting a pennant drive.

Pistol - Monday, February 03 2003 @ 09:08 AM EST (#97536) #

FWIW - Here are Sickel's rating of the Jays:

24) Jason Arnold RHP Toronto Blue Jays
40) John-Ford Griffin OF Toronto Blue Jays
74) Jayson Werth OF Toronto Blue Jays
89) Dustin McGowan RHP Toronto Blue Jays
100) Kevin Cash C Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays, Russ Adams, SS, University of North Carolina
North Carolina infielder Russ Adams wouldn't have been a first-round pick most seasons, but the thin nature of the college hitting crop boosted his stock in comparison to his peers. Again, some teams felt the Blue Jays overdrafted Adams, but it doesn't look that way after his initial pro exposure. He hit .354 in the New York-Penn League in 113 at-bats, with 24 walks and 13 steals. Promoted to the Florida State League, he hit just .231, but continued to control the strike zone, drawing 18 walks. Adams doesn't have much power, but he is a fine leadoff man given his speed and patience. Second base is his destination, and the Blue Jays are very high on him. I want to see what he does in Double-A before going overboard, but he looks good so far. Grade B.

_steve - Monday, February 03 2003 @ 10:29 PM EST (#97537) #

Pistol, are you getting Sickels' rankings from his 2003 Handbook or have they been posted somewhere on the web (that I can't find)? Either way, thanks for the info!

_Eric C - Monday, February 03 2003 @ 10:42 PM EST (#97538) #

Coach, I'll think if Adams and Perry produces in Dunedin, they'll move to New Haven by season's end. JP isn't known for rushing his minor leaguers, but those two are collegians who are fairly polished. Mark my words: Two of Adams, Maureau, Peterson, Pleiness, or Perry will be in New Haven by season's end.

One little thing that's a little offtopic, does anyone know a good source for pre-2002 minor league stats? Thanks.

Pistol - Tuesday, February 04 2003 @ 08:24 AM EST (#97539) #

Steve - I ordered Sickel's prospect book and he sent an e-mail of his top 100 prospects, and a summary of each player taken in round 1 of last year's draft since the book has not been finished yet (he wanted to provide the info to people that have early fantasy drafts). The list isn't 'final' but I doubt anyone would change drastically.

Coach - Tuesday, February 04 2003 @ 09:16 AM EST (#97540) #

Eric, those are the guys a lot of us are excited about, and AA will be a milestone for their future acceleration. Adams is a very smart player, which is something the organization values, and I think he was just a bit tired last year by the time he got to Dunedin. If he's putting up his typical numbers early, he should get a quick promotion. Like Sickels, I'm wondering how long he'll remain a SS. Maybe until they decide what to do with Rich...

Pistol, thanks for sharing. And Jonny, I hope Woodward becomes a star this year; I just traded for him (with Craig) in the TRHL. Tosca will have a job as long as he's getting results and on the same page as the front office. He's been in some pennant races; developmental skills don't preclude managing a contender.

Prospect-us | 13 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.