When James took a ride in my DeLorean in late '83 he told me this stuff was gold and would make him famous. It was his idea to pretend he didn't know about Wade's switch to leadoff and fudge the R and RBI data. Bill turns out to be a good Commissioner, too.

Wow! This is truly remarkable. First of all, how did BJ predict Boggs' longevity? To "miss" by a mere 7 games and 23 hits in a career of that magnitude is astounding. It took a lot of courage to trust his projections and publish them; I mean, how often does the data predict a .345 AVG? When you consider Boggs walked 151 times more than James thought he would, his actual OBP was within about .010 of expectations.

How is Bill with his stock predictions?

There are a few other predictions in the book, which appear to be based on an early version of the "Brock2" system that James published in the '85 Abstract.

I haven't checked the other predictions yet. Some of them look pretty good.

Overall, based players for whom James predicted career numbers in the Abstract, how many were within the range of statistical probability? The Brock 2 System was highly statistically accurate for Boggs. It would be interesting to know, if the system was able to predict other players' actual production, with the same level of accuracy.

Predicting player performance is an inexact science, to the point of becoming cliched. To accurately predict an entire career, is indeed an act of prognostication, worthy of the Delphi Oracle.

Lucky guess.

John, it was indeed a lucky guess. Had to be. But remarkably lucky. Of course, it was mostly the spreadsheet's guess, although I'd be willing to bet that James did tweak the results a bit.

Brock2 tends to work best for the best players, and not so good for players who are just average, and worst of all for players who are below average.

"Sabremetrics." Bah! The Red Sox didn't miss a beat when Boggs left because they had carefully developed future All-Star 3B Scott Cooper to replace him, and I bet this James fellow never predicted the great career that Coop had. So there.

Another James comment I remember, from the '95 Player Ratings Book:

"Carlos Delgado / Toronto Blue Jays / Catcher

If he'd been a veteran, no one would have thought anything of his slump. His average went down to .215; it would have come back. If the Blue Jays had been winning, no one would have paid any attention to him... he'll be back, and he'll be great. I have no doubt that Delgado is going to be an MVP candidate in the year 2000."

Coincidentally, I actually reread the '84 Abstract a couple of weeks ago.

I hadn't read it. I've read '82, '83, and '85 to '88, but not the early ones or '84. This is a treat. The only two I own are '87 and '88... they are such fun books.

Craig, I was kidding (Internet misunderstanding).

That is staggering how accurate that is.

What's even more amazing to me is that after Boggs's first breakout season or two, some people were predicting far greater results than what he would eventually produce. No one at that time could have predicted the whole Margo Adams fiasco and the detrimental impqct on his career. The scandal broke in 1988 and was resolved by court settlement in '89. Here are Boggs's career BAs and OBPs:

82 349/406
83 361/444
84 325/407
85 368/450
86 357/453
87 363/461
88 366/476
89 330/430
90 302/386
91 332/421
92 259/353
93 302/378
94 342/433
95 324/412
96 311/389
97 292/373
98 280/348
99 301/377

Up to Margo, his career numbers were .355/.442; he finished at .328/.415. Mind you, he also turned 30 in 1988, and line-drive singles hitters with little speed and athleticism don't tend to age well. But if you'd told someone in '87 that Boggs would finish a lifetime .325 hitter, you'd have been ridiculed. James was off on the average, but everything else is pretty much dead on the money.

I alwasy liked Boggs the player (if not Boggs the person), and it's a shame he couldn't sustain his production. Those Red Sox teams were fun to watch: Marty Barrett, Wade Boggs, Jim Rice, Tony Armas, Mike Easler, Dwight Evans and Rich Gedman were, for a few years there, a true lumber company.

I found all the old abstracts about a year ago at an estate sale buried amongst piles of philosophy and history books. Paid $5 for the stack, and they are still great reading...he's really an amzing writer, very modernist style. his essay on objective analysis (something relating to the "forest for the trees" metaphor) shouldbe required reading for all social scientists.

dp, what a find! If you ever tire of them, auction them on BB.

Jordan, Boggs made some unfortunate choices and his image certainly paid the price, but I like him. On the same day that Paul O'Neill dismissed my five-year-old son's autograph request in the Yankee clubhouse with a rude two-word phrase, Boggs posed for pictures with us, signed autographs and talked hitting, more than making up for his teammate's lack of class. An absolutely superb hitter, and for a "bad guy", not a bad guy at all. (Matt and I also spent plenty of time with Steve Howe and his son, and really enjoyed their company, so maybe I'm just a poor judge of "character.")