Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 2003 predictions from Mr. Gloom and Mr. Happy

2003 predictions from Mr. Gloom and Mr. Happy

I had a little free time today, so I tried figuring out how the Jays' main bats will do this year. Since forecasting is not an exact science, my approach was to compile the Jays' 2003 totals based on a collective worst-case scenario, and then put on my rose-coloured glasses and produce a 2003 best-case scenario. I only did hitting stats, since I'm lazy.

First, the pessimistic view. In Mr. Gloom's universe, Shannon Stewart and Frank Catalanotto go down with injuries, and are replaced by Jayson Werth and DeWayne Wise. Delgado goes into another midsummer funk, but doesn't snap out of it this time. Hudson and Woodward slump, and lose their jobs to Dave Berg and Mike Bordick. Hinske, Phelps and Wells each take a step back. The result is the following set of gloomy 2003 numbers (apologies if they look ugly - I tried to find a fixed font to display in):


Pos Player                       AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   SB  CS 
---+---------------------------+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+
C   Wilson/Myers/Huckaby/Cash    573   41  129  11  1   3   32  24   64  .225  .256  .260   0   0
1B  Delgado                      545   77  135  28  2  29   91  88  136  .247  .352  .466   1   0
2B  Hudson/Berg                  551   52  138  22  6   5   48  19   98  .251  .275  .339   4   4
3B  Hinske                       566   87  147  29  2  17   71  65  122  .259  .336  .408   9   3
SS  Woodward/Bordick             552   45  131  18  1  11   44  33  107  .237  .280  .333   2   2
LF  Stewart/Werth                577   76  158  27  4   6   41  24   60  .273  .302  .366  11   5
CF  Wells                        608   87  155  29  4  17   79  27   85  .255  .287  .400   9   4
RF  Catalanotto/Wise             599   51  158  16  1   8   45  51   57  .264  .322  .334   7   4
DH  Phelps                       565   41  146  24  1  22   58  26   82  .259  .291  .419   0   0

This collection of anemic bats scores a total of 557 runs, which puts them ahead of only Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The pitchers also have a bad year: Halladay is lost for the season early on due to arm problems caused by last year's workload, Lidle struggles, Sturtze is beaten like a drum, and the rest of the starters turn back into pumpkins. The Jays go 55-107. Tosca is fired, Ricciardi is fired, the team institutes cost-cutting measures, and the triumphant cackle of Richard Griffin can be heard throughout the land. Oh, and most of the Middle East is flattened by a war that starts in Iraq and quickly spreads.

Right - enough gloom, already. It's time for Mr. Sunshine. In this scenario, Hinske, Wells, Woodward, Hudson and Phelps all take a step forward, Delgado has his best season since 2000, Catalanotto returns to his pre-injury form, and everybody else contributes a bit. Behold:


Pos Player                       AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG   SB  CS 
---+---------------------------+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+
C   Wilson/Myers/Huckaby/Cash    573   51  154  24  2  11   62  34   64  .269  .310  .375   0   0
1B  Delgado                      545  127  167  44  2  46  131 128  116  .307  .438  .644   1   0
2B  Hudson/Berg                  551   82  169  28  6  11   58  34   98  .301  .347  .439   8   4
3B  Hinske                       566  118  165  41  6  31  101  71  112  .292  .370  .549  12   3
SS  Woodward/Bordick             552   75  153  25  1  17   64  38   95  .277  .324  .418   2   1
LF  Stewart                      577  129  175  38  4  12   41  64   60  .303  .376  .445  25   5
CF  Wells                        608  107  179  39  4  31  118  41   85  .295  .339  .525  15   4
RF  Catalanotto/Wise             599  118  186  31  1  14   85  71   57  .311  .384  .402  13   4
DH  Phelps                       565   99  169  34  1  42  128  41   82  .299  .347  .582   0   0

These Jays, with five .300 hitters and double-digit HR totals from everybody in the lineup, wind up scoring a league-leading 906 runs. Halladay goes 24-3 and wins the Cy, thanks to superior run support. Lidle goes 19-10, Sturtze, Walker and Hendrickson provide league-average pitching, and the bullpen is rock-solid. The Jays go 106-56 and leave the Yankees and the Red Sox in the dust. Ricciardi is named GM of the year, Tosca is named manager of the year, the Dome actually starts to fill up by September, and people forget about the Leafs and the Raptors. Oh, and there's no war, and Saddam Hussein agrees to go into voluntary exile, giving Iraq an opportunity to slowly move towards participatory democracy.

The only conclusion I can draw from this echoes the words of wisdom once uttered by that well-known philosopher and pitcher, Joaquin Andujar: In baseball, youneverknow.

Posted by Dave Till on Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 01:32 AM EST.

2003 predictions from Mr. Gloom and Mr. Happy | 15 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_EddieZosky - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 01:38 PM EST (#97969) #

Close that tag!!

_EddieZosky - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 01:39 PM EST (#97970) #

Thanks.

Dave Till - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 01:40 PM EST (#97971) #

Should be fixed now.

Coach - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 02:15 PM EST (#97972) #

Dave, we were editing at the same time. You (and all the other guys) now have "rebuild" rights.

Your "gloom" scenario is the second time you've channelled Griffin; I'm getting worried. Obviously, some of those things could go wrong, but I'd say the odds of all of them happening are longer than the Tigers' shot of winning the pennant.

On the rose-coloured view, the pitching "predictions" are wildly optimistic, but most of the hitting numbers actually look attainable! Part of the reason I'm so excited about the attack is the absence of black holes. Every hitter will be presented with more RBI chances than last year, and nobody can be pitched around. Carlos will see more strikes, and the bottom of the order will contribute. Without Lopez, Cruz, Mondesi, Lawrence and Huckaby, I think there will be fewer 2-out, nobody on AB and way more 2-on, nobody out opportunities for big innings.

Over a full season, O-Dog should do even better in triples; he hits the gaps and is all hustle. I don't expect Stewart (or anyone) to get 25 green lights, but I like the SB projection for Delgado (presumably the back end of a double steal) and think Phelps could notch a couple the same way. Josh, Wells and the catchers might rack up a few more strikeouts than Mr. Happy forecasts, but 906 runs is a lot closer to reality than 557. (They scored 813 last year.) No matter how you slice it -- and this was fun -- there's a lot of reasons for Jays fans to be excited.

_R Billie - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 02:20 PM EST (#97973) #

I guess my predicted range of between 75-90 wins needs to be widened a bit. =)

Gitz - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 02:26 PM EST (#97974) #

So it's true, then. Drugs ARE better in Canada ...

Dave Till - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 02:30 PM EST (#97975) #

Nah, we don't have better drugs - this cold snap has driven us all a bit stir-crazy. (Now would probably not be the best time for legislative bodies to introduce laws to combat global warming. Right now, global warming seems like a pretty good idea.)

_Shant Admit My - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 02:44 PM EST (#97976) #

Uh, down here below the Ontario/Detroit border, we have a very different connotation of "Mr. Happy."

Not to take on the persona of Mr. Gloom, of course, or to, ah, toss the projections into a cold shower, as it were, but in the best of all projections involving Mr. Happy, doesn't he get ... well, screwed?

_Richard - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 02:53 PM EST (#97977) #

Actually optimism regarding the Jays offence is well founded.The Jays were second in the A.L. after the all-star break in runs scored,a mere 4 runs behind Texas which plays in a hitter's ballpark.(Mind you the Jays second half schedule appears much easier than that of the first half)

We've upgraded in R.F,behind the plate and on the bench in the off-season so any decrease in production (i.e. will Phelps come back to earth?) may well be off-set by these additions.

Now the pitching.......this is the wild card!

_Jordan - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 03:12 PM EST (#97978) #

I quite like Dave's projections, and while agreeing that neither Mr. Gloom or Mr. Happy is likely to score 100% on his predictions, the latter scenario seems more plausible, at least from the hitters' point of view. For my money, Wells and Hinske improve slightly, Phelps and Hudson regress slightly, and Carlos comes back big. I'm not nearly so confident regarding the pitching: it'll be better than last year, but it's still one ace and four jacks (or many more jacks, depending on how tater-rrific this staff turns out to be).

Perhaps the most important thing is that no one -- including players, brass, fans and BB devotees -- gets too worried if, on April 22, this team is 5-15. Their first 20 opponents:

New York
New York
New York
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Boston
Boston
Boston
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
New York
New York
New York
New York
Boston
Boston
Boston
Boston

It's a long season, and still a long road back for this franchise. When Justin Miller is facing Mike Mussina and Mark Hendrickson is matched up with Derek Lowe, we'll all be reminded of that. I think it will be a fine season for the Blue Jays and an improvement on 2002, but it might not necessarily start out that way. As Dan Rather would say: Courage!

Dave Till - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 03:45 PM EST (#97979) #

My own prediction is somewhere halfway between Gloom and Sunshine. I think one or two of the younger players will step back; for some reason, I think that Woodward hit over his head in 2002, and I believe that Hudson will have some growing pains. I think J.P.'s worried about this too, which is why Bordick, Cat and Berg were signed as insurance. (Woody will still be better than Gonzo, and Hudson will eventually come around. They're great at turning the DP, which should buy them some time if their bats die.)

The top end of the order - Stewart/Cat/Hinske/Delgado/Phelps - should be potent (and fun to watch), and for some reason I think that Wells is going to take another step forward. Runs shouldn't be a problem.

I think the team will win somewhere between 85 and 90 games, which won't be enough, alas. (If the Jays get close to either the Yanks or the Sox, these teams will haul out wheelbarrows of cash to make new trades, possibly acquiring the last remnants of what will eventually be the Greater Virginia Expos.)

That's one ugly first 20 games, Jordan. When, O when, is the American League going to adjust its schedule? Last year, the Jays didn't play Baltimore - a divisional rival - until something like August, and then played them over and over and over again, pounding the O's into the dust and inflating their own second-half record.

I'd comment on what Richard Griffin would say if the Jays went 5-15 to start '03, but I've already channelled him too much lately. (As a precaution, I've placed several cloves of garlic and a small positive-ion-generating pyramid near my computer in an attempt to ward off evil.)

Coach - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 03:53 PM EST (#97980) #

This just in -- Jose Cruz to San Fran at $2.8 MM for one year. Good for him! I was going to post a new thread but I think Gideon's beat me to it.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 04:53 PM EST (#97981) #

While the Jays have a tough start to the season, and a tough first half, the September schedule only has the AL's worst teams on it. So if they're close on Sept 1 things could get interesting.

I'll take 857 runs.

Coach - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 05:13 PM EST (#97982) #

Last year, the Jays started 9-20, and apart from a home-and-home with the Rangers and three games in Tampa, faced nothing but playoff contenders for the first 44 games. We know they can score, they won't have a 6.69 team ERA in April again, and if they get through that 20-game opening test 8-12, it gets a lot easier -- 18 of the next 24 are against K.C., Tampa and Texas. The interleague schedule isn't too bad; Cinci, Pittsburgh and the Cubbies are winnable series, and of course, there will be six all-Canadian games, with June 29 the sad, historic finale.

If they are around .500 at the break, compared to 34-52 in 2002, anything's possible. With the exception of a brutal 14-game stretch against the A's and M's in August, there is a great chance for another fast finish.

_R Billie - Tuesday, January 28 2003 @ 08:43 PM EST (#97983) #

If the Jays can get through the first month anywhere near .500, it will be good reason to smile. Reinforcements could arrive for another relatively easy second half in the form of Werth, Cash, Arnold, Thurman, and maybe even someone like David Bush. And if any kind of constructive pitching related maneouvers can be made mid-season involving Escobar and/or Stewart then all the better.

Of course folks will point once more to the Jays only playing well "once the pressure is off" without respect to the level of competition. But as long as people continue to take the team lightly in that manner it will be all the sweeter as the improvement continues in the following years.

2003 predictions from Mr. Gloom and Mr. Happy | 15 comments | Create New Account

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