Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The 2003 Toronto Blue Jays are many times deeper, at the big-league level, in AAA and throughout the organization, than they were a year ago. The everyday lineup against RH starters is just about carved in stone, with only the batting order uncertain, and many attractive options there for Carlos Tosca (and us) to ponder.

In 2002, the pitching plan was Carpenter, Halladay and three rainy days. That's also improved. Doc, Cory Lidle and Tanyon Sturtze are set, and there will be a battle royal among many qualified candidates for the other two rotation spots.

I've set my crystal ball a few weeks ahead, but I can't quite make out who that is on the end of the bench in the dugout or the bullpen. Perhaps you can help.


Let's start with pitching. And let's go no further than Mark Hendrickson, for reasons I'm about to explain. It's tempting to hand the giant lefty a rotation spot, and I think he's up to the task. But that would leave Doug Creek as the lone southpaw reliever, so Jason Kershner, Scott Wiggins or a LOOGY to be named later would bump a deserving righty from the bullpen. I'm sure there are supporters within the organization, and among BB-ers, for the idea of using Hendrickson as the (very) long lefty in the 'pen, and going with five RH starters. That's just one of the questions that remain to be answered in Florida.

Doug Linton, Justin Miller and Pete Walker are considered the other candidates to start, and like Hendrickson, are virtually assured of bullpen assignments if they aren't in the rotation. To me, that's the real tussle in camp, and opinion is divided on Miller's readiness or suitability to start, so he faces the most pressure of the three to impress.

Returnees Escobar and Politte and newcomers Creek and Jeff Tam are assured of bullpen jobs, and unless he disappoints, so is Rule 5 draftee Aquilino Lopez, who gets people out. Someone mentioned a preference for an 11-man staff, but especially in April, and considering they have to keep Lopez on the 25-man, I'm sure they will go with 12 pitchers. A figurative cast of thousands will be auditioning for roles that just aren't available -- Corey Thurman, Mike Smith, Josh Towers, Brian Bowles, Scott Cassidy, Bob File, Vinny Chulk, Evan Thomas, Trever Miller, Tim Young, Pasqual Coco, Jason Arnold, Dave Bush and many others will really be trying to establish a next-in-line pecking order. Competition is a wonderful thing, compared to the desperation of last April.

Among position players, the equivalent to Hendrickson as a victim of his own versatility may be Jayson Werth. In the Jays' long-range plans, with Gross in RF, Griffin in LF, Phelps at 1B, Cash at C, Werth may never be more than a valuable utility man. He could begin that role in 2003, or be sent to Syracuse to work on his hitting. I'm confident that Ken Huckaby will be odd man out at C, leaving a Myers-Wilson platoon. Josh Phelps could strap on the tools in an emergency, so Werth's third-catcher status isn't the deciding factor in his immediate future. It's an organizational decision based on what's best for his development.

There are only 13 hitting spots. Bordick and Berg (who can play RF, don't forget) have jobs. If Werth is farmed out, who gets the final spot? Sorry, Dewayne Wise, you're an exciting defensive player, but you hit from the wrong side, and not hard enough or often enough. Howie Clark is a lot like Catalanotto, only not quite as good. I think it's between Werth and Bruce Aven, unless the Jays do well enough in the arbitration wars with Stewart and Escobar to sign another righty-swinging corner OF from the increasingly anxious free agent pool.

Just wondering; is there another MLB team entering spring training with as few, and as relatively insignificant, questions to be answered?
Dunedin Decisions | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_R Billie - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 11:48 AM EST (#98303) #
After going through the numbers, Aven may be a better candidate for making the team than I thought.

His career line reads .273/.343/.432
609 ab, 85 r, 33 doubles, 20 homers, 103 rbi, 57 bb, 135 k

Not bad for sporadic playing time; that's a pretty decent fourth outfielder. Ironically, though he swings from the right side he's done considerably worse versus lefties (.684 ops) than righties (.746 ops) over the past three years. Though it's less than 100 at bats against southpaws in that time, it doesn't convince me that Aven would help the team's potential achilles heel...lefthanded pitching.

The one Blue Jay who does seem to be able to hit lefties is Tom Wilson (.337/.412/.512 in 83 at bats)...and that alone may buy him a roster spot not only as a catcher but a guy who can spell at first base and provide insurance at first base should anything (heaven forbid) happen to Josh Phelps. He was pretty helpless against righties though (.628 ops).

Dubois seems sure to return to the Cubs or a PTBNL may head Chicago's way to get the big guy's bat in New Haven along with Gross, Griffin, Rios, Rich, and potentially Adams and Perry later in the year. David Bush probably joins the pen there and lefty Justin Maureau has a chance to make that team as well after toying with the NYP league. A number of other pitchers from the 2001 and 2002 drafts could make New Haven either out of spring or sometime this season. AA and Dunedin have the potential to be very special for the Jays this year.

Hendrickson is almost sure to make the Jays in one role or another...to me it doesn't matter which. A second lefty for the pen isn't likely to be a big deal to find so if Stretch can handle starting, that may be what he should do. Miller is almost sure to make the team because I think he's out of options. In the perfect scenario, I think the Jays see Hendrickson and Miller taking the 4th and 5th spots by force in the spring.

I agree with the 13/12 batter/pitcher split that Coach suggests.

Infield: Delgado, Hudson, Woodward, Hinske, Berg, Bordick
Outfield: Stewart, Wells, Catalanatto, Aven
Catcher: Myers, Wilson
DH: Phelps

Starters: Halladay, Lidle, Sturtze, Miller, Walker
Pen: Escobar, Politte, Tam, Creek, Hendrickson, Lopez, Majewski/Linton/Thomas

Hendrickson could start which would mean a righty would be turfed in favour of Wiggins or Kershner.
Mike D - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 12:05 PM EST (#98304) #
My understanding is that the Jays feel that Hendrickson and Miller are both more effective when rested, which is why Pete Walker and his more rubbery arm should probably fill the long relief role. Hendrickson, in particular, would probably require an adjustment period to get used to the high appearances/constant heating in the pen routine. Stretch isn't really a power-pitching Embree type, anyway, to bring out of the pen in the LOOGY role.
_Gwyn - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 12:32 PM EST (#98305) #
Just wondering; is there another MLB team entering spring training with as few, and as relatively insignificant, questions to be answered?


I think that is the real story here. It is obviously a little early to be able to make anything more than guesses at the final few places on the roster as I am sure spring training performance will have at least a little impact. It is a fun exercise on a cold winter day though :-)

I think Hendrickson has a head start on a rotation spot after his good september.

I would be surprised to see Werth make it to Toronto out of camp, I figure they will want him to get the regular at-bats in AAA.
Coach - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 12:37 PM EST (#98306) #
If Hendrickson and Miller both start, either Walker or Linton will be caught in the numbers game to make room for a lefty in the 'pen. So Linton, under the right circumstances, could be in the Toronto rotation, or he could end up as an elder statesman in the minors.

That's where there will be some real spring battles. With the experience of Linton and the other FA pickups, like still-young MLB veteran Towers, plus the talented kids on the way up, the Syracuse rotation is going to be much better. Vinny Chulk will apparently be moved to the bullpen, and Jason Arnold may begin in New Haven, because there's so many qualified AAA arms.

BB received about 2,350 hits this week since the counter flipped to 10 K at noon last Friday. Even if that's two visits a day, 7 days a week, by a couple of hundred regulars, it's impressive. Thanks to an e-mail suggestion from Brad in California, we are going to launch a newsletter, and I have a growing mailing list. If you've "signed" previous comments with an e-mail address, you'll be included. If not, and you want to be added to the list, let me know in this thread or by private message. Thank you all for making BB such fun, and I hope you'll forward the first newsletter to your friends.
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 01:17 PM EST (#98307) #
http://economics.about.com
At the very least, we should get a good Rochester-Syracuse rivalry the likes of which we haven't seen in years. I'm really looking forward to the International League season, as I'm out here in Rochester. Syracuse starts at home on the 3rd of April against the Wings, with the Wings home opener on the 5th against Syracuse. Should be fun!

Oh.. I'd like to sign up for the newsletter as well.

Cheers,

Mike Moffatt
About.Com Guide to Economics
http://economics.about.com
_Ian Gray - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 02:49 PM EST (#98308) #
I'm excited about the coming seasons. I think the Jays are going to set the baseball world on its ear in the coming year, though anything north of ninety wins would be pushing it.

Coach, I'd like to be on the mailing list if at all possible. This place is now well up on my list of sites to check, and it's a credit to all of the authors that the level of discourse is so consistently high and entertaining.
_Shane - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 03:15 PM EST (#98309) #
The only comment I would make on Mark Hendrickson is, though his age (29 in July) is not that of rookie, everyone knows, his baseball development is. As long as Jays management is evaluating him as a starter, he'll have to be starting somewhere, he's lost years of devlopmental time and going to the bullpen isn't going to benefit him for that purpose. If he's in the bullpen, he's probably staying there.

Same thing with Corey Thurman, who is also going to be pitching as a starter somewhere in '03. I doubt we'll be seeing him in the Jays bullpen in '03. Justin Miller would seem another that needs a lot of innings. Between his head, his change back to throwing at a 3/4 arm slot, and whatever else, he needs the opportunity to find himself and home plate. Starting, rather than bullpening it, might be best. Of his 25 appearances in Toronto last year, 18 of them were as a strating pitcher.

Perhaps, of the remaining young AAA prospect types, the Vinny Chulks, etc. Mike Smith might be a guy more likely to make the 25 man roster in the spring. If only because Ricciardi's has already stated he thinks he's probably best suited for a bullpen role. Earlier in '02 he stated the same for Brandon Lyon's future.
_Shane - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 03:17 PM EST (#98310) #
Too much catching flexibility??

Especially when there is the possibilty of another year beginning with a 12 man staff, flexibility is an interesting question in wondering how GM Ricciardi see's his roster.

The signing of a lefthanded hitting catcher, Greg Myers, would seem to signal a demotion/release/trade for either Tom Wilson or Ken Huckaby before April, yes? However, perhaps GM Ricciardi is planning on carrying all three. Doesn't sound likely? Three catchers is overkill?

In '02, to my surprise some what, GM Ricciardi did place a pretty high value on having a defensive minded catcher, so it would seem Huckaby stays for now, thus making a strictly offensive platoon of Wilson/Myers not likely.

How about Huckaby/Myers? I, personally don't feel he'd give away/not keep Tom Wilson at this point. If you look at all three catchers offensively they would rate from first to last: Wilson, Myers, Huckaby, right? So if Huckaby remains the defensive place holder of the three, and a lefthanded Myers was brought in for some added left handed sock, wouldn't it be counter productive to force out the better hitter of the trinity just because he's neither lefthanded or defensive minded? When the philosohy is to have offence at every position, this would have become subtraction by addition.

As well, if you discounnt any games Kevin Cash might catch post-All Star break, a 162 game season is too many games to be made up of from a platoon of Huckaby/Myers. Myers, 37 in April, only had 144 AB's in 65 games in '02. That's a lot of pinch hitting. And Huckaby though appreciated for what he is, would be a total sink hole if playing 100 plus games, and slapping occasional RF singles as he does. That in it self would seem to suggest that in '03, these three thirtysomethings will be a Tony LaRussa dream come true.

It might seem unlikey, but the way it's layed out, I'd be suprised if all three don't make the 25 man opening day roster.

If I'm wrong by April 1st, anyone, and everyone feel welcome to tell me 'I told you so'.
_dp - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 08:48 PM EST (#98311) #
re: too much depth

I'll go aginst the grain here with the realization that I could be proven totally wrong by some unexpected performances this year, but I think there are some problems created by the addition of so many mediocrities during the off-season. The Sturtze and Creek deals were mistakes IMO b/c they crowd players with more upside out of the equation or into lesser roles. Hendrickson and Miller proved they should at least get the jobs to lose last season, while Walker pitched well enough to be handed a 5 starter spot on a team with 12 pitchers (usually pitches pretty short stints). Creek takes a job from one of the other equally capable lefties, and if either of these guys means stalled development for the young starters, then there's a problem. Young staffs tend to develop slowly (insert Piazza joke), but they don't develop without experience. On their own, bringing in either Creek or Sturtze wouldn't have been bad, but together they clog the roster unnecessarily- if Thurman or someone is dominating AAA, and the 4-5 starters are doing well, you can't bump Strutze even though he'll probably be picthing like sh*t.

Having both of these guys also means that you have to go with 12 pitchers, which seems a little excessive. And if you have 13 position players, one of whom is a full-time DH, and 3 catchers, then your bench is going to be strapped- less ability to use maximize different hitters' strengths by using them where they're suited, except at catcher. Agin, depth problems created by JP- he's got 3 catchers who are older, thus not really reliable, but one of them is a defensive whiz and the other 2 aren't but can hit OK. You've got a lineup that can score runs. You've got a stud prospect in AAA, and 2 studs only a year removed from playing the position. So I guess I wonder why the need for Myers. It seems like if they wanted an offense/defense combo, they could've stuck with a Huckaby/Wilson tandem and given Werth a start back there every now and then, rotating him around between RF, C and DH. He's probably not going to hit enough to be an everyday RF, but I think he'd be valuable as a spare OF/backup catcher, so why not see if he's ready for that job from now?

The other issue I have with the bench is Tosca- he seems to have a huge prefernce for older players, and I'm really worried we're going to see a lineup more than once of Huckaby at C, Wilson as DH, Bordick as the SS, and Berg at either 2B, 3B, or RF. As a manager, your GM should always ensure that Greg Meyrs never has to get 1 AB as a DH or that Dave Berg, except in emergencies like last year, never sets foot in RF. It is the manager's job to use the bodies provided for him properly, and I'm not confident of Tosca's ability to do so.

I'm not deluding myself again this year- I think the Jays have one more year of development before they start winning big. And as such, I'd rather see them do it with youth than age, regardless of the pay. I think JP has gotten a free pass (here and at Primer) on a couple of moves other GMs would've gotten criticized for.
_R Billie - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 11:10 PM EST (#98312) #
On their own, bringing in either Creek or Sturtze wouldn't have been bad, but together they clog the roster unnecessarily- if Thurman or someone is dominating AAA, and the 4-5 starters are doing well, you can't bump Strutze even though he'll probably be picthing like sh*t.

I disagree...since Sturtze is only making a million and is only on a one year deal, I see no reason whatsover that he wouldn't be displaced if he was pitching like crap. If Thurman or Arnold proved themselves ready they could come up sometime in the second half and displace whoever needed displacing...be that Sturtze or anyone else.

Sturtze was horrible last year...there's no way to sugar coat that. But he also had a support neutral win % of .562 in over 175 innings in 2001. It's impossible to say if last year was a permenant downturn in performance or if it was just a bad bad year. I'm not expecting great things but if he can be Loaiza or Parris for this year then I don't think one can complain.

Creek I didn't like. But they had to have some lefty depth in the pen; Mike Venafro was probably the only other pitcher in the Jays' price range and he wasn't exactly a world beater either. Again, Creek's contract isn't so prohibitive that he can't be easily traded for futures, demoted, or released with little fanfare. Heck the Jays were able to get futures for Pedro Borbon. I think one of Wiggins or Kershner, or both, will get some significant innings this year.

Having both of these guys also means that you have to go with 12 pitchers, which seems a little excessive.

I think 12 pitchers would have been used anyway. The Jays will carry at least one Rule V pitcher and their will be a lot of middle innings to eat this year as whichever two young pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots struggle from time to time.

I'm not deluding myself again this year- I think the Jays have one more year of development before they start winning big. And as such, I'd rather see them do it with youth than age, regardless of the pay. I think JP has gotten a free pass (here and at Primer) on a couple of moves other GMs would've gotten criticized for.

I wouldn't have made every move JP made. Heck if it were up to me, Escobar would still be a starter and a cheap signing like Ligtenberg would battle Politte for the closer role. I have a feeling that experience and "veteran presence" are being considered heavily for the makeup of this year's team. It's fine to try and shoehorn all young players with high ceilings into most roster spots but what if a couple of key injuries hit? Do we really want another April/May like last year?

Anyway...this is JP's first complete off-season with the team. This is year two of building. In 1999 the A's won 87 games with such stars as Gil Heredia, Jimmy Haynes, and Mike Oquist in the rotation...and obviously they replaced them in subsequent years as the young guys proved themselves ready. The Jays may not win 87 games but I think they're about at the same point in their development.
Coach - Saturday, January 25 2003 @ 09:21 AM EST (#98313) #
dp is never shy about going against the grain, which is fine with me. He says mediocrities, I say role players. I agree that at first glance, Creek doesn't inspire confidence. If J.P. traded for him, or gave him a multi-year deal, I'd be questioning the move. But the Jays haven't invested a lot of money (about double the minimum wage) or time, and I can't ignore the fact that a guy as sharp as Pat Gillick did trade for him. That's two GMs, smarter than me, who like him, so he deserves a chance to prove himself.

On the C issue, dp leaps to the assumption that there will be three. Not that anyone ever listens to my ramblings, but I've already said that the Myers signing spells the end of Huck's ML career. Wilson's bat should make him the placeholder until Cash is ready. If three receivers come north from Dunedin, I will print and eat these words and publish the digital photo. You're imagining that depth problem, and Myers isn't as bad back there as you seem to think. As far as Wilson's glove goes, did I mention how well he hits lefties?

we're going to see a lineup more than once of Huckaby at C, Wilson as DH, Bordick as the SS, and Berg at either 2B, 3B, or RF

Almost true. Except for the part about Huckaby. And it will be Tosca doing his job, which includes getting your bench players enough innings to feel useful and stay sharp. You've described the lineup against a lefty starter, which in the AL is no more than about 20% of the time. Wilson will start, Myers will sit. It would not surprise me at all if Bordick played a couple of games at 3B in place of Hinske. (Or Woody shifts a few steps to his right and Errorless Mike plays SS, or O-Dog plays 3B, which he can.) Unless they sign another OF, or Werth sticks, Berg is indeed the platoon RF with Cat. And as anyone can see, it won't be as awesome an offensive force as Tosca trots out there most days to face RH pitching. In other words, this team isn't championship-calibre. Yet. But it's a much deeper club than last year, and infinitely better-structured than two years ago, so J.P. can continue to build on these improvements. Everyone's entitled to rant here, but they Jays won't need us to tell them which of the one-year rentals helped, and which ones didn't work out. There will be plenty of fine catches in the FA waters next winter, and some great kids are on the way. And dp, I'm not suggesting the Little General is perfect, but he has better buttons to push this season, so I'm reserving criticism until he actually starts pushing the "wrong" ones.

if it were up to me, Escobar would still be a starter

R B, if it were up to me, his new team could do whatever they wanted with the space cadet. Showcasing him as a Proven Closer is the best way to get maximum value [crosses fingers] in return. I think 87 wins in 2003 is quite reasonable, so when you allow for luck, injuries, etc. -- say, plus or minus five games -- it means 92 is just as likely as 82. Doubters, repeat after me: "12 games over .500 for Tosca. 12 games over..."
_Steve Z - Saturday, January 25 2003 @ 08:37 PM EST (#98314) #
Some of the aforementioned critiques (of questionable signings) are reflected in Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis from Basbeball Prospectus:

...Why pay Mike Bordick seven figures? It doesn't matter if he's going to be your utility infielder or your primary insurance for Chris Woodward, he's not a great bet to be worth the money on either level. Either way, he's an expensive mediocrity. Tanyon Sturtze? Again, they're buying late, and at a million-plus, too much for what he has to offer. It's not really that much money, but it's buying a modest amount of cost certainty and an even more modest amount of remaining ability. Doug Creek for significantly more than minimum? A punch-drunk, smacked, and ed Jeff Tam? There's a good chance several of these guys could end up being cut in-season, and not just because of the talent down on the farm pushing its way up.
_dp - Monday, January 27 2003 @ 09:42 AM EST (#98315) #
Preach on, Brother Kahrl...
Dunedin Decisions | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.