Hey, Mick. Valdes is indeed a nice signing for the Rangers. I only wish it had been for more than one year.

As for Davis, I wouldn't call him the next Moyer, but he could yet become a serviceable ML pitcher. He's always been (and probably always will be) very hittable, never allowing lower than a .288 average against. For him, it's all a question of homers and walks. If he keeps them down, he can post an ERA in the low-4 range. If not, it's a low-5 ERA and another demotion to the minors, or in the case of 2003, the waiver wire.

Now that notorious Davis-hater Oscar Acosta is gone, he has one last chance to salvage his career as a Ranger. Right now, I'm inclined to believe he'll squeeze on as the fifth starter, as I'm not sure Colby Lewis is ready. Davis is also the only lefty in the rotation battle. The Rangers are looking at Park, Valdes, Thomson, probably Benoit, and Davis or Lewis. Perhaps Drese has a shot (and he's a former Indian, which helps given the current GM).

I didn't know how to evaluate "hard-luck" pitchers, until I found Michael Wolverton's "Support Neutral" stats on Baseball Prospectus. Mick's assertion that Valdes was unlucky is confirmed, though he's only fifth, not first, on the list comparing "Expected Wins" and "Expected Losses" to actual 2002 W-L records.

The dubious honour of being least lucky, with a record 9 games worse than he deserved, went to the O's Jason Johnson. Blue Jay fans, take note -- Tanyon Sturtze, according to Wolverton's calculations, was second-unluckiest; his 4-18 record "should" have been 10-15. Valdes, who went 8-12, actually pitched 6 wins better than that, so Mick is guilty of only slight exaggeration. By the way, there's another chart on the same page, listing "Starters most hurt by their relievers," and atop that list, by a wide margin, is another new Jay, Cory Lidle.

The 20 best MLB pitchers in 2002, ranked by support-neutral wins above what a "replacement level" pitcher would achieve, were as follows:

Pitcher       Team    SNW   SNL  SNPct   W  L    RA    APW  SNVA SNWAR
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Johnson,R      ARI   20.7   6.9  .751   24  5   2.70   6.3   6.7   9.0
Schilling,C    ARI   18.5   8.2  .691   23  7   3.21   4.8   4.9   7.1
Lowe,D         BOS   16.9   6.3  .728   21  8   2.66   5.0   4.9   7.0
Zito,B         OAK   17.2   7.9  .686   23  5   3.10   4.3   4.4   6.5
Martinez,P     BOS   15.8   6.3  .716   20  4   2.80   4.3   4.5   6.4
Halladay,R     TOR   16.7   8.9  .653   19  7   3.50   3.6   3.7   5.8
Maddux,G       ATL   15.2   7.0  .685   16  6   3.03   3.6   3.7   5.8
Hudson,T       OAK   16.4   8.9  .647   15  9   3.29   4.0   3.6   5.6
Oswalt,R       HOU   15.9   8.4  .655   19  9   3.34   3.5   3.4   5.6
Colon,B        C/M   16.2   8.9  .646   20  8   3.28   3.7   3.5   5.5
Buehrle,M      CHW   16.2   9.5  .632   19 12   3.84   2.8   3.2   5.3
Glavine,T      ATL   15.9   9.1  .636   18 11   3.41   3.2   3.3   5.3
Washburn,J     ANA   14.6   7.5  .661   18  6   3.28   3.5   3.3   5.2
Moyer,J        SEA   15.8   9.6  .621   13  8   3.47   2.8   2.9   5.0
Perez,O        LAD   14.5   9.1  .614   15 10   3.08   2.7   2.6   4.5
Millwood,K     ATL   14.3   9.0  .615   17  8   3.46   2.9   2.5   4.4
Mulder,M       OAK   13.9   8.5  .621   19  7   3.82   2.3   2.5   4.4
Wolf,R         PHI   13.8   8.6  .615   11  9   3.29   2.4   2.4   4.3
Byrd,P         KCR   15.1  10.5  .590   17 11   4.38   2.5   2.2   4.2
Burnett,A      FLA   13.3   8.5  .610   12  9   3.53   1.8   2.2   4.0

Note that Arizona, Boston and Oakland each had two of the top 10, and that the addition of Colon gives the White Sox the next best 1-2 punch in the game. "RA" is runs allowed per 9 innings (Roy Halladay's number is high because of a huge total of unearned runs, but Doc still rates as the sixth best starter in the majors) and APW stands for Adjusted Pitcher Wins. SNVA is an expression of how many more games the pitcher would win than an average pitcher on an average team. For definitions of the stats, and links to detailed explanations, visit the site. There's a world of additional information there, including data for all starters, team luck totals, and team bullpen support. And for now, it's free.

Forget the Doug Davis talk, the real news is that Mick Doherty, a self-proclaimed "transplanted Yankees fan," is still jabbering about the Rangers. Take every thing Mick says with your favorite bottle of scotch.

Valdes is one of those strange pitchers in the Mike Morgan mold; their numbers indicate they should have a winning record, then for some reason they end up going 11-15 and finding their name on one of those incomprehensible (and wonderful) Baseball Prospectus lists. I'll grant that one or two of Valdes' losing seasons were due to bad luck, but at what point does "unlucky" turn into ".500 pitcher"?

... at what point does "unlucky" turn into ".500 pitcher"? (asks Gizzi who should, in all fairness, give up to the public his own rooting interests disguised behind 22 years as the A's fantasy correspondent ...)

Well, probably about at the same point that ".500 pitcher" turns into "four years, $27 million" (known in these parts as "The Darren Oliver Standard").