Our link to Blue Jay Way has been re-directed, and I finally got around to reading Matthew Elmslie's latest column, entitled Sabremancy. It's a good introduction to some Bill James principles for predicting team success; highly recommended if you just said, "Bill who?"
Matt correctly points out that Toronto's AAA farm team was a disappointing 64-80 last year, a negative indicator. But the outlook has changed dramatically for 2003 -- in addition to some excellent talent on the way up from lower levels, the thorough Mr. Ricciardi has added several very capable players who will strengthen the Syracuse roster, if they don't make the big club's bench in spring training. Last year's inexperienced SkyChiefs (Mike Smith, Scott Cassidy, Justin Miller...) spent plenty of time in limos, being shuttled to and from Toronto, but now veterans like Bruce Aven, Howie Clark, Doug Linton and Josh Towers are in the mix. I'm confident that a year from now, this rule of thumb will predict a successful 2004 campaign for the Blue Jays.
Matt correctly points out that Toronto's AAA farm team was a disappointing 64-80 last year, a negative indicator. But the outlook has changed dramatically for 2003 -- in addition to some excellent talent on the way up from lower levels, the thorough Mr. Ricciardi has added several very capable players who will strengthen the Syracuse roster, if they don't make the big club's bench in spring training. Last year's inexperienced SkyChiefs (Mike Smith, Scott Cassidy, Justin Miller...) spent plenty of time in limos, being shuttled to and from Toronto, but now veterans like Bruce Aven, Howie Clark, Doug Linton and Josh Towers are in the mix. I'm confident that a year from now, this rule of thumb will predict a successful 2004 campaign for the Blue Jays.
