Now that Jim Thome has finally made his choice of employer for the rest of his career, we can officially drop the green flag on this year's free-agent season. And not a moment too soon: not only were front-office executives throughout the game getting antsy, with the arbitration deadline of Dec. 7 and the Winter Meetings (Dec. 13-15) looming, but us kibbitzers in the underground baseball press have had almost nothing to talk about. :-)
The Thome signing should get the ball rolling on two fronts, as the remaining Name Players on the market now have (or will soon have) a standard upon which to base their offers. On the hitters' side, there's Cliff Floyd and Jeff Kent, who should both figure on seeing more than a little time at first base next season. They can now set their prices based directly on Thome's jackpot, prices that will probably be too high for most teams. Floyd has an injury history and Kent is a malcontent, and while they'll have their suitors, neither should expect to start a bidding war in this new fiscal era. A notch below them are Ray Durham and Fred McGriff, who may also get less than they would like: Durham as the consolation prize for the team that doesn't get Kent, and McGriff as the aging first baseman only Peter Angelos would overpay for.
On the pitching side, Thome's decision will accelerate the timetable of Tom Glavine, they guy upon whom his fellow hurlers have been impatiently waiting. The Phillies want Glavine to complete their free-agent troika, and Tom's smart enough to see which way the wind is blowing in this division. Moreover, if he does return to Atlanta, it won't be because the Braves were too clingy, begging him to come back. Once Glavine accepts the Phillies' millions, then his comrade Greg Maddux, the Rocket, and lesser lights Jamie Moyer and Paul Byrd can get their travelling roadshows in gear too.
Will it be business as usual, though? I don't think so. For one thing, as has been pointed out before, this is not a terribly strong free-agent class: once you get past the Thomes and Glavines, you're not too far from potential spring-training invitees. For another, of course, there's the new financial structure taking shape: teams have been busy trying to dump payroll, not add it. And for a third, there really aren't that many teams that think they're just one player away from contending, especially with players of this calibre.
This makes me think that the smart agents will be the ones who get their clients' names on a good contract offer at the first opportunity, with no time wasted playing auction games. Put simply, the market isn't going to work itself into a hand-biting frenzy this year. Once the Grade A and B+ free agents are signed, I think GMs are going to stash their chequebooks, put their feet up on the desk and wait for the phone to ring in January. Come April, the Phillies may look back on these free-agent acquisitions and feel like the rotohead who bid $51 for Barry Bonds in the first round and then watched as Austin Kearns, Jermaine Dye and Preston Wilson went for $17 each later on.
In fact, I'm seeing reports from numerous teams indicating that they plan to "wait out" the remaining free agents over Christmas in hopes of snagging 2003's Kenny Lofton come spring training. It's a great idea -- but then, so is leaving for the cottage at 5:30 Saturday morning, so long as no one else decides to do the same thing. If they do, then the northbound highway becomes one big vertical parking lot. In truth, unlimited patience will not be a virtue this off-season for agents or for GMs. Players who wait too long for offers to increase could find themselves facing STIs come March; GMs who wait too long for prices to sink could find themselves unexpectedly crowded out at the bargain bin.
The winners this off-season will be those parties who understand the new marketplace, who know exactly what their needs are and what their bottom line is, and who are quick and agile enough to grab the brass ring on its first, and maybe only, go-round. This bodes well for the Blue Jays, whose GM is confident, direct and crystal-clear about what he wants. He may not be active on the free-agent market, but he knows that other teams are, and he'll know what buttons to push when it comes time to talk trade. And if the right free agent is there at the right price, he may yet surprise us all. While this may not be the busiest off-season ever, it's nonetheless shaping up as one of the most interesting and instructive in recent memory.
The Thome signing should get the ball rolling on two fronts, as the remaining Name Players on the market now have (or will soon have) a standard upon which to base their offers. On the hitters' side, there's Cliff Floyd and Jeff Kent, who should both figure on seeing more than a little time at first base next season. They can now set their prices based directly on Thome's jackpot, prices that will probably be too high for most teams. Floyd has an injury history and Kent is a malcontent, and while they'll have their suitors, neither should expect to start a bidding war in this new fiscal era. A notch below them are Ray Durham and Fred McGriff, who may also get less than they would like: Durham as the consolation prize for the team that doesn't get Kent, and McGriff as the aging first baseman only Peter Angelos would overpay for.
On the pitching side, Thome's decision will accelerate the timetable of Tom Glavine, they guy upon whom his fellow hurlers have been impatiently waiting. The Phillies want Glavine to complete their free-agent troika, and Tom's smart enough to see which way the wind is blowing in this division. Moreover, if he does return to Atlanta, it won't be because the Braves were too clingy, begging him to come back. Once Glavine accepts the Phillies' millions, then his comrade Greg Maddux, the Rocket, and lesser lights Jamie Moyer and Paul Byrd can get their travelling roadshows in gear too.
Will it be business as usual, though? I don't think so. For one thing, as has been pointed out before, this is not a terribly strong free-agent class: once you get past the Thomes and Glavines, you're not too far from potential spring-training invitees. For another, of course, there's the new financial structure taking shape: teams have been busy trying to dump payroll, not add it. And for a third, there really aren't that many teams that think they're just one player away from contending, especially with players of this calibre.
This makes me think that the smart agents will be the ones who get their clients' names on a good contract offer at the first opportunity, with no time wasted playing auction games. Put simply, the market isn't going to work itself into a hand-biting frenzy this year. Once the Grade A and B+ free agents are signed, I think GMs are going to stash their chequebooks, put their feet up on the desk and wait for the phone to ring in January. Come April, the Phillies may look back on these free-agent acquisitions and feel like the rotohead who bid $51 for Barry Bonds in the first round and then watched as Austin Kearns, Jermaine Dye and Preston Wilson went for $17 each later on.
In fact, I'm seeing reports from numerous teams indicating that they plan to "wait out" the remaining free agents over Christmas in hopes of snagging 2003's Kenny Lofton come spring training. It's a great idea -- but then, so is leaving for the cottage at 5:30 Saturday morning, so long as no one else decides to do the same thing. If they do, then the northbound highway becomes one big vertical parking lot. In truth, unlimited patience will not be a virtue this off-season for agents or for GMs. Players who wait too long for offers to increase could find themselves facing STIs come March; GMs who wait too long for prices to sink could find themselves unexpectedly crowded out at the bargain bin.
The winners this off-season will be those parties who understand the new marketplace, who know exactly what their needs are and what their bottom line is, and who are quick and agile enough to grab the brass ring on its first, and maybe only, go-round. This bodes well for the Blue Jays, whose GM is confident, direct and crystal-clear about what he wants. He may not be active on the free-agent market, but he knows that other teams are, and he'll know what buttons to push when it comes time to talk trade. And if the right free agent is there at the right price, he may yet surprise us all. While this may not be the busiest off-season ever, it's nonetheless shaping up as one of the most interesting and instructive in recent memory.
