Neat article -- it provides a very useful update on the major prospects in the Toronto system. In fact, it might make my planned overview of Toronto's minor leaguers redundant. So I'll just offer a few thoughts on some of the players on this list.

I'm rather surprised to see McGowan head the Top Ten, since he had carried the reputation of a "thrower" rather than a pitcher up to this point. But it's hard to argue with the numbers, especially the late-season improvement. And at only 20, he's hardly going to be a polished product. He really is Toronto's only true power arm in the system right now, and you need at least one or two heaters in the rotation to provide contrast to the four-pitch tossers the organization is currently collecting. I look forward to watching McGowan's progress over the next few years.

Rosario's surgery is cause for concern, of course, but nobody seems to be terribly upset. I suppose people are thinking "Billy Koch" and reasoning that this isn't the career-killing injury it used to be. Certainly, if they're projecting a mid-'03 return for Rosario, it can't be that bad. I presume that Toronto will take their sweet time getting him back to health. But it does kind of underline the old BP axiom: "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Gather as many good arms as you can, because the law of attrition dictates you'll lose some of them every year.

David Bush strikes me as somewhat anomalous: sabrmetric types aren't big on minor-league closers, since they usually end up at the back of a big-league bullpen or drawing Blue Cross benefits back home in Mobile. But you've got to go with what you have, and if Bush has exactly two outstanding pitches he can throw for strikes, why mess with that? Gregg Olson fashioned a nice little career out of a great fastball and a killer curve, and Bush may be of that lineage. Sidebar: you know, I was always a little disappointed that the Blue Jays made Koch a closer. He was a starter in college and through much of his minor-league career; he was shifted to closer when the Jays were absolutely desperate for someone to nail down wins. I don't know if it was a post-surgery concern for his arm strength that precipitated the move as well. But Koch has shown himself capable of multi-inning performance, and one of the knocks against him is that he tries to throw one of his four or five pitches instead of dominating with his fastball. Is it just me, or do all signs point to a Derek Lowe situation here? Were I Billy Beane, I'd try moving Koch back to the rotation at some point. End of sidebar.

I'm quite surprised to see Alexis Rios on this list at all, let alone in fourth place. Contending for the batting title in the FSL impresses me about as much as vying for the CFL punt return crown. Of his 139 hits, 106 were singles; he still strikes out twice as much as he walks (and 27 BB in 456 AB is dreadful); and at 6'5", he's got a huge strike zone to learn in the next couple of seasons. I'll need a lot more evidence of high-level performance before I become a Rios believer.

Steady as she goes for Russ Adams. I like the Knoblauch comparison, a lot more than the Walt Weiss comparison Ricciardi hung on Adams on Draft Day. It's easy to forget that before going Whitson in New York, Knoblauch was dynamite in the leadoff role: an OBP in the .380-.420 range, extra-base power, 50 steals and an above-average glove. Adams may not run as much, but everything else is looking very promising.

Gabe Gross has got to be top of mind for JP Ricciardi when it comes to his prospects. Everyone agreed he was a steal in the draft, and he ripped the cover off the ball in his pro debut. But then came that horrible slump (probably the first of his career), the injuries and the struggles all year long. I understand he's also struggling in the AFL right now (along with most of the Jays prospects on the Grand Canyon Rafters). No one, I'm sure, has changed his mind about Gross's upside or the certainty that he'll reach it, but the timetable has got to be under review. Ricciardi might reasonably have believed 18 months ago that Gross would be ready for a September promotion in '03. Right now, his ETA can't realistically be any earlier than late 2004, and that will undoubtedly affect JP's long-term planning.

Outside of Cash and Werth, nobody on this list is likely to see any time in Toronto next season (though if Vinny Chulk continues to improve, they may give him a look-see). But by 2004 or '05, these names should have figured prominently in the construction of what ought to be a solidly contending Blue Jays squad. That is, if their pitchers would stop going under the knife every two months.

Jordan: Goldstein's list doesn't make yours redundant; if anything, it makes me more eager to see what you come up with using ML equivalents and other research tools.

Going by the seat of my pants -- a broad approach, I admit -- I view the kid from Hawaii optimistically. In terms of experience at the highest amateur levels, he started behind the best high school kids from more traditional baseball states, but is progressing just fine as a pro. He'll get a chance in New Haven. Do we know who's managing there?

Gross has been compared (if only because of his football prowess) to Adam Dunn or Todd Helton, but -- more like the Yankees' Drew Henson --he has yet to translate his gridiron talents to the diamond. Gabe needs to show more power and vastly improved plate discipline in AAA before he gets anything but a September invitation. He's actually coming around in Arizona, now .282 through 20 games, with a .342 OBP (6 BB/19K)for Grand Canyon. With a strong second half in Syracuse this year and a great spring in 2004, he could make the big club, but I'm not holding my breath.

Chulk, if he outpitches Mike Smith and Corey Thurman and the rest of the Syracuse rotation, could be rewarded at some point with a start in one of those doubleheader situations, but why rush him? That's why Linton and Walker and Creek and Tam and other 30-somethings yet to be acquired will be so beneficial; J.P. has bought his kids some time.

http://www.theprospectreport.com
Hey guys, I found this while looking at the stats for my site.

I think Rios is going to surprise a lot of people this year. The wrist injury snapped all the power from his swing. I'm not saying he's going to content for a HR crown over, but he's big and his swing is quick with great extension, and really should be a 15-20 HR guy.

I agree that League has that best chance to be special, but word is while he hits the highest numbers on the gun, it's straight as an arrow -- not good.

As far as Bush goes, I am a sabremetrician, but I'm really NOT a fan of what statheads in general have done with minor leauges. I subscribe to almost none of their minor league theories and think there's a TON to be said for scouting that they don't give credit too. The further down you go, (mlb, aaa, aa, a, r) the less stats are capable of telling you.

Hey Kevin, thanks for dropping by. I hadn't come across your site before Kent linked to it, but I think it's very good. I'll agree that where scouts tend to focus too much on the tools and the radar guns, sabrmaticians can be guilty of focusing too much on the numbers alone. That will get you in trouble in the lower minors, where playing and travelling conditions will inevitably interfere with a clear analysis, and where the players are still developing physically and mentally. A mix of the two methods seems the most sensible route. I'm curious; what approach do you take to your ranking and analyses of the lower-level players?

I hope you're right and I'm wrong about Rios. It would be nice to get something useful out of the two Belgian first-rounders, seeing as how Josephang Bernhardt has apparently disappeared off the radar. I'll bookmark your site for future reference.

"Gabe needs to show more power and vastly improved plate discipline in AAA before he gets anything but a September invitation."

53 BB in about 400 AB is pretty good. That's actually the only positive part about his season- even when he was slumping terribly, he was at least drawing walks. I think that's a positive indicator, more than if he was not walking and popping an occasional homer (like Drew Henson).

Great site though. I like it.

Kevin, great site. Whatever your ranking methods, they are more scientific than mine. I follow the Yogi axiom, "you can observe a lot by watching," and until I've seen a player, I'm just guessing. I knew Cleveland was loaded, and your list makes it clear. That's a mighty impressive 2005 lineup. Do you have a "Top 10" ranking of organizations?

dp, thanks. I didn't mean to imply that Gross was as disappointing as Henson, just that he's a work in progress. You never know who's going to be the next Bo Jackson and who's going to follow Chris Weinke.