To begin by restating the obvious: the Toronto Blue Jays need pitching. Outside of Roy Halladay and Cliff Politte, there are very few locks for the 2003 pitching staff, so shoring up the hurlers -- both for the short-term and the long run –- is a Ricciardi priority. Most of the off-season will be bent towards this priority (though we also hope the team can somehow acquire control of the Skydome -– I’ll have a whole lot to say about that in a future entry).
In the first few days of the free-agent signing period, therefore, it wasn’t surprising to see the Blue Jays active in this market. But the first three names they brought in probably won’t overwhelm the season-ticket phone lines. So who are these guys, and will they help next year? Let’s take a look.
Doug Creek
2002: Tampa Bay & Seattle
3-2, 5.82 ERA, 52 G, 0 GS 55 IP, 57 H, 10 HRs, 35 BB, 56 K
2001: Tampa Bay
2-5, 4.31 ERA, 66 G, 0 GS, 62 IP, 51 H, 7 HR, 49 BB, 66 K
Well, let’s start with the positives: any pitcher would get progressively worse after three seasons with the Devil Rays. Creek averages more than a strikeout an inning, and has fewer hits than IP over his career. He’s left-handed. Umm, he’s 32. He looks good with a beard.
The downside? He has little control. Eighty-four walks in his last 117 innings is not what you want from a reliever who’s probably entering the game to get a key out and then hit the showers. But more importantly, his speciality –- retiring lefty hitters –- is something he’s becoming less specialized at.
I don’t normally copy-and-paste wholesale, but this observation, made by a poster named Displaced at Baseball Prospectus’s Transaction Oracle (entry #4) , says exactly what I would have said, only better:
[Quoting Ricciardi]
"He's a guy that can give us two innings out of the bullpen. He's good against left-handers, but he's just as good against right-handers. It helps our bullpen. We're just happy to have it done."
2002---BA/OBP/SLG
vs. L: .239/.333/.432
vs. R: .277/.409/.492
2001
vs. L: .198/.327/.291
vs. R: .250/.402/.426
2000
vs. L: .170/.303/.250
vs. R: .260/.370/.527
Doug Creek is better against lefties, but his effectiveness is waning. Moreover, he is most demonstrably not “just as good against right-handers.” Right-handers light him up like the White House Christmas Tree. Further moreover, there is no indication he can give the team more than one inning out of the pen: 55 innings in 52 appearances last year, 62 innings in 66 games in 2001. Only in 2000 did he deliver more than a handful of multiple-inning appearances. In short, I have no idea who JP’s referring to, but I don’t think it’s Doug Creek.
Most problematically of all, Creek is signed to a guaranteed major-league contract, $700,000 with an $800,000 club option for ’04. Now, 700 K is a whole lot better than giving, say, Rheal Cormier any amount of money ending in “illion.” We're pretty low on the risk totem here. But from this admittedly distant vantage point, I don’t see why Creek couldn’t have been given a minor-league contract with a spring training invite, which is the sensible thing to do with players who have no leverage when negotiating deals. Creek is a reasonable flyer: he’s a lefty who strikes guys out, and that’s two excellent points in his favour. But his record demonstrates no ability to succeed consistently the last few years, even after a mid-season deal to a contender playing in the best pitcher’s park in the majors. Colour me baffled on this one.
Doug Linton
Let’s put the 1992 World Series team in perspective. On Doug Linton’s first tour of duty with Toronto ten years ago, his mound mates included:
David Cone
Jack Morris
Dave Stieb
Jimmy Key
Al Leiter
Pat Hentgen
David Wells
Todd Stottlemyre
Juan Guzman
Tom Henke
Duane Ward
Mike Timlin
David Weathers
Mark Eichhorn
That, my friends, was a pitching staff.
Anyway, speaking of intriguing staffs, here’s a couple of stat lines from the 2001 Norfolk Tides:
13-4, 2.99 ERA, 26 G, 23 GS, 168 IP, 145 H, 46 BB, 106 K
7-3, 3.21 ERA, 12 G, 10 GS, 75 IP, 74 H, 10 BB, 67 K
You think the 2002 Mets could’ve used a pair of guys like this? Well, the Metropolitans gave up on the first guy and cut him loose early last season. JP picked him up, dusted him off, gave him a uniform named “Walker” and set him to work. Thanks again, Steve Phillips!
Steverino also cut the other guy loose after 2001, and he ended up with the Richmond Braves. All he did for Atlanta’s top farm team in 2002 was this:
9-11, 2.53 ERA, 28 G, 28 GS, 174 IP, 167 H, 26 BB, 160 K
That BB/K ratio is not a typo: he struck out almost a batter an inning, and walked someone about every seven IP. Meet Doug Linton, 38-year-old journeyman hurler who, maybe just maybe, finally learned how to pitch in Virginia in 2001, and is now a leading contender for a starting slot in Toronto next year.
Linton’s downside? Obviously, 38 is a little late for any pitcher to start a career renaissance, unless he intends to someday be portrayed by Randy Quaid. And Linton’s raw stuff has never been a problem: several major-league teams have tried him out, and the result has been a 17-20, 5.86 major-league line. But I have a feeling there’s some magic there: consecutive good and outstanding minor-league seasons in one’s late 30s come along very rarely. I’m glad JP has decided to try catching aging lightning in a bottle.
Trever Miller
2002: Louisville
9-5, 3.18 ERA, 65 G, 0 GS, 82 IP, 76 H, 23 BB, 80 K
2001: Pawtucket
3-11, 5.20 ERA, 33 G, 15 GS, 116 IP, 142 H, 34 BB, 93 K
Unlike Doug Linton, one could hardly blame the Red Sox for jettisoning travellin’ lefty Trever Miller after that ugly 2001 season in Rhode Island. But if the Sox had looked closely, they would’ve seen a very attractive 34/93 BB/K ratio in the midst of the debris. I don’t have a detailed breakdown of Miller’s 2001 stats, so I don’t know how much of his pummelling came during his 15 starts. But Miller hasn’t started a major-league game since 1998, and there may be an excellent reason for that.
Anyway, the Reds evidently understood this, since they sent him to Louisville and kept him in the pen. The results were far more impressive, but again, the BB/K ratio remained virtually unchanged, and he’s now K’ing more than one per inning while allowing fewer than one hit per frame. If you want to get JP Ricciardi’s attention, post two excellent BB/K ratios in consecutive years. Miller did that, and now he’s a Blue Jay.
Caution all around with both Linton and Miller: these guys have no records of major-league success, and the chances that they’ve both suddenly discovered how to pitch at this stage of their careers are fairly slim. There is a huge gap between AAA and the majors, and many excellent players simply can’t make the leap. But the Pete Walkers of the world demonstrate that there are reclamation projects to be found anywhere, if you know what to look for. Both Linton and Miller have found success: nothing but credit to Ricciardi for noticing this, giving them a chance, and maybe striking gold once again.
To quote the great, great Jim Steinman, “two out of three ain’t bad.” A very nice start to the Blue Jay front office’s first full off-season. Keep it going, ladies and gentlemen.
In the first few days of the free-agent signing period, therefore, it wasn’t surprising to see the Blue Jays active in this market. But the first three names they brought in probably won’t overwhelm the season-ticket phone lines. So who are these guys, and will they help next year? Let’s take a look.
Doug Creek
2002: Tampa Bay & Seattle
3-2, 5.82 ERA, 52 G, 0 GS 55 IP, 57 H, 10 HRs, 35 BB, 56 K
2001: Tampa Bay
2-5, 4.31 ERA, 66 G, 0 GS, 62 IP, 51 H, 7 HR, 49 BB, 66 K
Well, let’s start with the positives: any pitcher would get progressively worse after three seasons with the Devil Rays. Creek averages more than a strikeout an inning, and has fewer hits than IP over his career. He’s left-handed. Umm, he’s 32. He looks good with a beard.
The downside? He has little control. Eighty-four walks in his last 117 innings is not what you want from a reliever who’s probably entering the game to get a key out and then hit the showers. But more importantly, his speciality –- retiring lefty hitters –- is something he’s becoming less specialized at.
I don’t normally copy-and-paste wholesale, but this observation, made by a poster named Displaced at Baseball Prospectus’s Transaction Oracle (entry #4) , says exactly what I would have said, only better:
[Quoting Ricciardi]
"He's a guy that can give us two innings out of the bullpen. He's good against left-handers, but he's just as good against right-handers. It helps our bullpen. We're just happy to have it done."
2002---BA/OBP/SLG
vs. L: .239/.333/.432
vs. R: .277/.409/.492
2001
vs. L: .198/.327/.291
vs. R: .250/.402/.426
2000
vs. L: .170/.303/.250
vs. R: .260/.370/.527
Doug Creek is better against lefties, but his effectiveness is waning. Moreover, he is most demonstrably not “just as good against right-handers.” Right-handers light him up like the White House Christmas Tree. Further moreover, there is no indication he can give the team more than one inning out of the pen: 55 innings in 52 appearances last year, 62 innings in 66 games in 2001. Only in 2000 did he deliver more than a handful of multiple-inning appearances. In short, I have no idea who JP’s referring to, but I don’t think it’s Doug Creek.
Most problematically of all, Creek is signed to a guaranteed major-league contract, $700,000 with an $800,000 club option for ’04. Now, 700 K is a whole lot better than giving, say, Rheal Cormier any amount of money ending in “illion.” We're pretty low on the risk totem here. But from this admittedly distant vantage point, I don’t see why Creek couldn’t have been given a minor-league contract with a spring training invite, which is the sensible thing to do with players who have no leverage when negotiating deals. Creek is a reasonable flyer: he’s a lefty who strikes guys out, and that’s two excellent points in his favour. But his record demonstrates no ability to succeed consistently the last few years, even after a mid-season deal to a contender playing in the best pitcher’s park in the majors. Colour me baffled on this one.
Doug Linton
Let’s put the 1992 World Series team in perspective. On Doug Linton’s first tour of duty with Toronto ten years ago, his mound mates included:
David Cone
Jack Morris
Dave Stieb
Jimmy Key
Al Leiter
Pat Hentgen
David Wells
Todd Stottlemyre
Juan Guzman
Tom Henke
Duane Ward
Mike Timlin
David Weathers
Mark Eichhorn
That, my friends, was a pitching staff.
Anyway, speaking of intriguing staffs, here’s a couple of stat lines from the 2001 Norfolk Tides:
13-4, 2.99 ERA, 26 G, 23 GS, 168 IP, 145 H, 46 BB, 106 K
7-3, 3.21 ERA, 12 G, 10 GS, 75 IP, 74 H, 10 BB, 67 K
You think the 2002 Mets could’ve used a pair of guys like this? Well, the Metropolitans gave up on the first guy and cut him loose early last season. JP picked him up, dusted him off, gave him a uniform named “Walker” and set him to work. Thanks again, Steve Phillips!
Steverino also cut the other guy loose after 2001, and he ended up with the Richmond Braves. All he did for Atlanta’s top farm team in 2002 was this:
9-11, 2.53 ERA, 28 G, 28 GS, 174 IP, 167 H, 26 BB, 160 K
That BB/K ratio is not a typo: he struck out almost a batter an inning, and walked someone about every seven IP. Meet Doug Linton, 38-year-old journeyman hurler who, maybe just maybe, finally learned how to pitch in Virginia in 2001, and is now a leading contender for a starting slot in Toronto next year.
Linton’s downside? Obviously, 38 is a little late for any pitcher to start a career renaissance, unless he intends to someday be portrayed by Randy Quaid. And Linton’s raw stuff has never been a problem: several major-league teams have tried him out, and the result has been a 17-20, 5.86 major-league line. But I have a feeling there’s some magic there: consecutive good and outstanding minor-league seasons in one’s late 30s come along very rarely. I’m glad JP has decided to try catching aging lightning in a bottle.
Trever Miller
2002: Louisville
9-5, 3.18 ERA, 65 G, 0 GS, 82 IP, 76 H, 23 BB, 80 K
2001: Pawtucket
3-11, 5.20 ERA, 33 G, 15 GS, 116 IP, 142 H, 34 BB, 93 K
Unlike Doug Linton, one could hardly blame the Red Sox for jettisoning travellin’ lefty Trever Miller after that ugly 2001 season in Rhode Island. But if the Sox had looked closely, they would’ve seen a very attractive 34/93 BB/K ratio in the midst of the debris. I don’t have a detailed breakdown of Miller’s 2001 stats, so I don’t know how much of his pummelling came during his 15 starts. But Miller hasn’t started a major-league game since 1998, and there may be an excellent reason for that.
Anyway, the Reds evidently understood this, since they sent him to Louisville and kept him in the pen. The results were far more impressive, but again, the BB/K ratio remained virtually unchanged, and he’s now K’ing more than one per inning while allowing fewer than one hit per frame. If you want to get JP Ricciardi’s attention, post two excellent BB/K ratios in consecutive years. Miller did that, and now he’s a Blue Jay.
Caution all around with both Linton and Miller: these guys have no records of major-league success, and the chances that they’ve both suddenly discovered how to pitch at this stage of their careers are fairly slim. There is a huge gap between AAA and the majors, and many excellent players simply can’t make the leap. But the Pete Walkers of the world demonstrate that there are reclamation projects to be found anywhere, if you know what to look for. Both Linton and Miller have found success: nothing but credit to Ricciardi for noticing this, giving them a chance, and maybe striking gold once again.
To quote the great, great Jim Steinman, “two out of three ain’t bad.” A very nice start to the Blue Jay front office’s first full off-season. Keep it going, ladies and gentlemen.
