Obviously a big concern in MLB (especially with guys like Cole going down) is how many starters do you need if you are to contend in 2025? 5? 6? 16? Hard to say. Also how badly does the quality drop after the first 5? Let's do some digging.
Ideally you have 5 getting 32 each with 2 spot starts by someone (or two get 33 starts).
| Big 3 | Top 5 in rotation | |||||||||||||
| Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
| 1977 | 101 | 713.2 | 4.27 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 1977 | 131 | 876.5 | 4.53 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 4.4 | |
| 1978 | 90 | 596.3 | 4.14 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 1978 | 132 | 840.6 | 4.66 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 | |
| 1979 | 83 | 536.2 | 4.36 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 1979 | 117 | 759.5 | 4.42 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | |
| 1980 | 88 | 597.4 | 3.75 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 1980 | 118 | 777.6 | 3.96 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | |
| 1981 | 66 | 413.2 | 3.90 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 1981 | 90 | 562.4 | 3.89 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | |
| 1982 | 116 | 803.5 | 3.62 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 1982 | 147 | 963.7 | 3.89 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | |
| 1983 | 105 | 718.1 | 3.70 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 1983 | 150 | 995.2 | 3.93 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 5.1 | |
| 1984 | 106 | 746.4 | 3.62 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 1984 | 153 | 1044.7 | 3.73 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | |
| 1985 | 104 | 731.3 | 3.00 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 1985 | 141 | 925.6 | 3.31 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | |
| 1986 | 103 | 653.3 | 4.06 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1986 | 140 | 878.4 | 4.17 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 5.3 | |
| 1987 | 104 | 680.3 | 3.41 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1987 | 139 | 854.5 | 3.72 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | |
| 1988 | 96 | 599.3 | 3.92 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1988 | 133 | 810.4 | 4.02 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 5.4 | |
| 1989 | 97 | 623.3 | 3.47 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 1989 | 145 | 902.7 | 3.59 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | |
| 1990 | 93 | 565.4 | 3.80 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 1990 | 141 | 865.6 | 3.82 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | |
| 1991 | 95 | 608.1 | 3.52 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 1991 | 137 | 875.5 | 3.36 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | |
| 1992 | 95 | 636.6 | 3.48 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 1992 | 136 | 888.6 | 3.88 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 5.6 | |
| 1993 | 93 | 600.4 | 4.23 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 1993 | 146 | 914.6 | 4.60 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 5.9 | |
| 1994 | 71 | 454.4 | 4.87 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 1994 | 110 | 693.7 | 4.83 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 7.5 | |
| 1995 | 82 | 518.3 | 4.91 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 1995 | 110 | 709.6 | 4.86 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 6.6 | |
| 1996 | 97 | 666.6 | 3.85 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 1996 | 128 | 828.8 | 4.47 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 6.6 | |
| 1997 | 100 | 722.2 | 3.27 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 1997 | 135 | 924.4 | 3.73 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 7.1 | |
| 1998 | 94 | 620.6 | 3.99 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 1998 | 140 | 917.7 | 4.17 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 7.3 | |
| 1999 | 98 | 598.2 | 5.10 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 1999 | 140 | 852.3 | 4.84 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | |
| 2000 | 86 | 537.6 | 5.21 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 2000 | 124 | 766.6 | 4.73 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 6.3 | |
| 2001 | 86 | 517.5 | 4.87 | 10.9 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 2001 | 123 | 721.9 | 4.76 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 5.5 | |
| 2002 | 79 | 504.4 | 4.19 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 2002 | 111 | 672.5 | 4.55 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 5.8 | |
| 2003 | 97 | 616.3 | 4.61 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 2003 | 134 | 832.5 | 4.49 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 6.0 | |
| 2004 | 84 | 520.1 | 4.40 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 2004 | 121 | 733.4 | 4.42 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | |
| 2005 | 92 | 537.3 | 4.15 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 2005 | 135 | 812.5 | 3.90 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 5.6 | |
| 2006 | 85 | 536.4 | 3.78 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 2006 | 119 | 714.6 | 4.12 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 6.3 | |
| 2007 | 83 | 559.5 | 3.84 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 2007 | 128 | 812.7 | 3.85 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 6.7 | |
| 2008 | 95 | 636.3 | 3.42 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 7.5 | 2008 | 139 | 898.5 | 3.54 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 7.4 | |
| 2009 | 86 | 556.2 | 3.93 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 2009 | 127 | 780.4 | 4.38 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 7.3 | |
| 2010 | 91 | 577.3 | 3.85 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 2010 | 129 | 785.6 | 4.07 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 7.9 | |
| 2011 | 82 | 527.3 | 3.96 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 2011 | 116 | 709.5 | 4.36 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 7.4 | |
| 2012 | 84 | 492.3 | 4.72 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 2012 | 116 | 670.3 | 4.70 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 5.9 | |
| 2013 | 87 | 533.6 | 4.33 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 2013 | 121 | 706.9 | 4.58 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 7.1 | |
| 2014 | 98 | 601.4 | 3.85 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 2014 | 144 | 874.5 | 3.82 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 7.3 | |
| 2015 | 93 | 582.4 | 3.69 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 2015 | 132 | 804.5 | 3.89 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 6.2 | |
| 2016 | 94 | 591 | 3.53 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 2016 | 152 | 936.1 | 3.69 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 7.5 | |
| 2017 | 91 | 532.1 | 3.87 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.2 | 2017 | 127 | 702.3 | 4.34 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 8.0 | |
| 2018 | 72 | 376.3 | 5.14 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 7.9 | 2018 | 111 | 583.4 | 5.17 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 7.6 | |
| 2019 | 73 | 375.5 | 4.67 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 2019 | 100 | 464.7 | 4.55 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 8.1 | |
| 2020 | 30 | 140.3 | 4.68 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 2020 | 42 | 194.6 | 4.25 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 8.7 | |
| 2021 | 92 | 512.3 | 3.64 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 2021 | 131 | 709.6 | 3.70 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 9.5 | |
| 2022 | 94 | 542.4 | 3.55 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 2022 | 138 | 747.6 | 3.64 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 8.7 | |
| 2023 | 97 | 556.4 | 3.70 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 8.9 | 2023 | 147 | 828.5 | 3.81 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 9.4 | |
| 2024 | 94 | 544.1 | 3.85 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2024 | 137 | 745.5 | 4.07 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 8.4 | |
| #6-16 in rotation | |
#9+ in Rotation (desperation guys) | ||||||||||||||
| Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | How Many | Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | How Many | |
| 1977 | 30 | 167.3 | 5.49 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6 | 1977 | 5 | 22.1 | 6.92 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3 | |
| 1978 | 29 | 171.4 | 4.36 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3 | 1978 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1979 | 45 | 256.7 | 6.17 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8 | 1979 | 14 | 71.3 | 6.56 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 5 | |
| 1980 | 44 | 198.4 | 6.12 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 6 | 1980 | 12 | 45.2 | 7.17 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3 | |
| 1981 | 16 | 88.4 | 4.79 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3 | 1981 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1982 | 15 | 70.3 | 6.15 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4 | 1982 | 2 | 7 | 9.00 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1 | |
| 1983 | 12 | 43.2 | 9.17 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3 | 1983 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1984 | 10 | 47.3 | 5.52 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 3 | 1984 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1985 | 20 | 87.4 | 3.60 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 5 | 1985 | 2 | 9 | 2.00 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2 | |
| 1986 | 23 | 121.4 | 4.15 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4 | 1986 | 1 | 1 | 27.00 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 1 | |
| 1987 | 23 | 112.5 | 5.28 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 6 | 1987 | 4 | 10.3 | 13.11 | 20.1 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3 | |
| 1988 | 29 | 156.2 | 3.46 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3 | 1988 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1989 | 17 | 78.4 | 4.48 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 7 | 1989 | 7 | 28.3 | 4.45 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4 | |
| 1990 | 21 | 99.7 | 5.06 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 6 | 1990 | 6 | 29.6 | 4.86 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3 | |
| 1991 | 25 | 136.6 | 4.35 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 6 | 1991 | 5 | 22.2 | 4.05 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3 | |
| 1992 | 26 | 147.2 | 5.44 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 4 | 1992 | 2 | 8 | 5.63 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 16 | 83.1 | 5.09 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 3 | 1993 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1994 | 5 | 19 | 9.47 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 2 | 1994 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1995 | 34 | 200.1 | 5.76 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 1995 | 8 | 40.1 | 4.71 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 34 | 174.7 | 6.23 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6 | 1996 | 7 | 28.4 | 10.46 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 3 | |
| 1997 | 27 | 128.2 | 5.90 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 5 | 1997 | 3 | 14 | 9.00 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 23 | 143.2 | 4.02 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 4 | 1998 | 2 | 14 | 1.93 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 22 | 112.2 | 7.46 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3 | 1999 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2000 | 38 | 189.2 | 7.28 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 7 | 2000 | 8 | 33 | 7.64 | 13.9 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4 | |
| 2001 | 39 | 238.1 | 3.33 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 7.3 | 4 | 2001 | 1 | 4.1 | 6.59 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 51 | 263.5 | 6.22 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 8 | 2002 | 16 | 74.3 | 7.03 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5 | |
| 2003 | 28 | 141.6 | 5.97 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5 | 2003 | 5 | 12.2 | 15.49 | 22.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2 | |
| 2004 | 40 | 196.4 | 6.51 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6 | 2004 | 6 | 30.2 | 4.77 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3 | |
| 2005 | 27 | 133.4 | 6.07 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 4 | 2005 | 3 | 10.1 | 12.48 | 21.4 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 43 | 181.7 | 6.59 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 7 | 2006 | 10 | 29.2 | 7.71 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4 | |
| 2007 | 34 | 183.4 | 6.04 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 6 | 2007 | 4 | 15.2 | 11.84 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 23 | 122 | 5.09 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 3 | 2008 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2009 | 35 | 181.5 | 5.90 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 7 | 2009 | 10 | 46.4 | 8.34 | 12.2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 4 | |
| 2010 | 33 | 169.8 | 5.46 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 6 | 2010 | 10 | 52.3 | 4.13 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 3 | |
| 2011 | 46 | 251.9 | 5.14 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7 | 2011 | 15 | 69.7 | 6.86 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 4 | |
| 2012 | 46 | 242.9 | 5.22 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 7 | 2012 | 13 | 63.7 | 5.95 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 8.9 | 4 | |
| 2013 | 41 | 188.7 | 5.77 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 8 | 2013 | 11 | 38.7 | 7.01 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5 | |
| 2014 | 18 | 82.3 | 5.58 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4 | 2014 | 1 | 3.0 | 5.81 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 30 | 158.5 | 4.37 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 7 | 2015 | 10 | 42.3 | 7.64 | 14.9 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 4 | |
| 2016 | 10 | 58.3 | 2.93 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 2 | 2016 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2017 | 35 | 163.7 | 5.61 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 9 | 2017 | 15 | 69.3 | 6.48 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6 | |
| 2018 | 51 | 253.0 | 5.12 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 9 | 2018 | 14 | 61.7 | 6.00 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 6 | |
| 2019 | 62 | 242.3 | 6.69 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 16 | 2019 | 33 | 114.0 | 6.01 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 13 | |
| 2020 | 18 | 57.7 | 5.77 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 7 | 2020 | 7 | 19.3 | 3.73 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 4 | |
| 2021 | 31 | 123.7 | 4.37 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 11 | 2021 | 11 | 22.7 | 6.40 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8 | |
| 2022 | 24 | 77.7 | 7.43 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 8 | 2022 | 6 | 13.3 | 11.42 | 16.8 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 5 | |
| 2023 | 15 | 65.0 | 4.43 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 7.6 | 3 | 2023 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2024 | 25 | 114.3 | 3.23 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 5 | 2024 | 3 | 8.1 | 4.44 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 2 | |
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