Last years team vs past Jays

Saturday, January 04 2025 @ 09:27 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

Figured I had to come up with a new topic as the old one is getting pretty full, so why not compare last years offense to all Jays teams from 1977 to now while we wait to see where Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, and other top free agents sign (such as Jack FlahertyPete AlonsoJeff Hoffman who wants to be a starter again, and others) sadly, they probably all sign outside of Toronto given how this winter has gone.

Over 48 seasons (* by 2020 [60 games], 1981 [106], 1994 [115], and 1995 [144].  Vs all others with 162) stats via FanGraphs...

Category Score Rank Just behind Just Ahead of Notes
Defense  21.1 4 2004 2013 Never thought of 2004 as being good on defense, #1 was 1985.
HBP  78 5 1998 1999 Well, even bad offenses need to be good at something I guess
fWAR  22.7 18 1986 1998 Defense really lifted this
BB%  8.4% 18 1990 2008 Hey, something they were in the upper half of all Jay teams ever!
wRC+  101 23 1989/1998  2009/2000 The PED era really screws around with 2000's figures
Offense  3 26 2013 1991 Dang, was sure this would be a LOT worse
2B  280 26 1985 1987 Surprised by the company being kept here
3B  26 29 2006 2007/13/14
SB  72 32 2005 2002
HR  156 32 1988 1997 1997 should be embarassed, that was in the midst of the PED era
ISO  .148 35 1995 1984 Kind of surprised '84 is this low (Barfield & Bell regulars that year)
BABIP  .283 37 1982 2011
OBA  .313 38 1982 2017
Runs scored  671 38 1991 1997
K%  20.3% 41 2022 2012
Slg%  .389 42 1997 1982
wOBA  .307 44 1997 1977
BsR  12.7 44 2017 1978 Ouch - the baserunning was that bad? Yikes.
Avg  241 45 1997 2017 Was expecting this to be at the bottom, but 1981 (226) will probably hold this title forever

Kind of interesting to put a historical perspective on the offense which was really annoying fans and media alike.  It was bad, 1997 bad, not 1981 bad.  1998 saw the teams offense skyrocket to 816 R (#8 all time), but that '98 team really sacrificed defense to do it (José Canseco in the OF often, Shawn Green in CF 32 times, a 36 year old Tony Fernández flip flopping 2B/3B, Carlos Delgado at 1B (think Vlad but no fun acrobatics), etc.  Basically they did anything they could to get offense added in that year.  Yet despite that Roger Clemens still won the pitchers triple crown with a 174 ERA+ (imagine if he had a good defense behind him).  So yes, the offense could jump next year.  Anthony Santander could be the Canseco for 2025. The big shifts were Orlando Merced replaced by Shawn Green, Joe Carter by Canseco, and Otis Nixon by Shannon Stewart.  Not to mention Mariano Duncan replaced by Fernandez.  The manager was changed from Cito Gaston to Tim Johnson (if only they hired Davy Johnson instead who publicly said he wanted to come here).

Basically what this shows is 2024 sucked, but 1997 shows how fast it can change if you mix in kids and 1 key free agent.  But ideally you don't write off defense like Ash did between those 2 years.

What about pitching?  Glad you asked.  Split into starting and relieving...
Starting First (begin with the good news)...
Category Score Rank Just behind Just Ahead of Notes
Fastball V 94.2 1 -- 2023 Just 18 years of data, but still suprisingly good
WP 9 2 2020 2021 Wow, guess Kirk is damn good at blocking
K% 22.4% 4 2022 2020 A function of era (top 5 all in the 2020's)
K/BB 2.95 4 2023 2008 Top 4 are the 4 more recent seasons
WHIP 1.23 4 1985 1991 Wow, impressive.
LOB% 73.6% 5 2016 1991 Guess the starters were good at this
K/9 8.48 5 2022 2017
IBB 3 7 2000 2014/2019 Guess the Jays don't like to give up free baserunners
ERA 3.95 12 1990 2014
BB/9 2.87 15 1986 2006
BB% 7.6% 16 2006 2013
BABIP .283 18 1990 1980
FIP 4.15 19 2023 1997
fWAR 10.6 33 2017 1994 1994 was a 2/3 season, 1977 was next
HR/9 1.21 36 2009 1996
W 51 36 2011 1980
L 61 36 2011 1997
HR/9 1.21 36 2009 1996
QS 68 39 2021 1980/2013
IP 861.2 41 2017 2018
HBP 47 45 2001 2005/2008 Poor opponents getting beaned a lot

Now the ugly - the pen.
Category Score Rank Just behind Just Ahead of Notes
Fastball V 94.1 5 2021 2019 Only 18 years of data
Holds 83 5 2018 2017 Only for past 23 years
IP 565.2 6 2021 2023
BABIP .276 7 1991 2015 Suggests the pen could've been worse if not for the defense
K/9 7.99 14 2014 1987 Very poor figure for a modern pen
K/BB 2.2 15 1997 2014
K% 20.7% 16 2014 2008
BlSv 23 18 2015 2022 Only for past 23 years
WHIP 1.34 20 1992 2006 Wow, comparable to the Henke/Ward WS pen?
W 23 21 2016 1984
BB/9 3.63 22 2010 1985
BB% 9.4% 22 2006 1992 Huh, the amazing Henke/Ward pen wasn't better at avoiding walks
Saves 36 27 2004 1996
IBB 22 28 1996 1983 Guess Schneider had a LOT less confidence in his pen
WP 22 30 2016 1994 Wow, Kirk kept the starters under control with this, but not the pen
HBP 24 35 1999 2003
L 27 40 2022 1984
FIP 4.84 45 2019 2003
ERA 4.82 45 2020 1979
LOB% 69.0% 46 1979 2000 2020 was the worst pen for allowing runners to score
fWAR -2.5 48 1984 -- Other negative years were 1977 & 1979
HR/9 1.46 48 2019 -- Ugh
ERA- 121 48 1978 -- Worst ever by a lot, '78 was 112

Scary how bad they were - worst Jays pen ever for HR/9, ERA-, fWAR, and close to worst in many other categories.  Yet 5th in BABIP so it could've easily been even worse.

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