Batter's Box Interactive Magazine: Looking at Past Projections

Figured as the projection systems start churning out we should see how they did last year with our Jays.

Last year ZIPS had the Jays projected to be 3rd, 87-75 with a high-low of 95 and 78 wins - reality was 74 wins. Sigh.

For players Here are projections for 2022, 2023 and 2024 with range and reality for guys still here are...

		WAR				Avg/OBP/Slg
Who	What	2022	2023	2024	Avg	2022	2023	2024	Beat Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Projection	5.9	3.5	3.0	4.1	303/390/585	284/359/514	278/357/492	1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Reality	3.3	1.3	5.5	3.4	274/339/480	264/345/444	323/396/544	1
Bo Bichette	Projection	4.7	3.9	3.9	4.2	291/341/497	280/327/469	292/333/471	1
Bo Bichette	Reality	4.8	3.9	0.3	3.0	290/333/469	306/339/475	225/277/322	1
George Springer	Projection	3.0	4.2	2.5	3.2	267/352/513	262/345/491	254/328/432	1
George Springer	Reality	4.1	1.8	1.2	2.4	267/342/472	258/327/405	220/303/371	1
Alejandro Kirk	Projection	1.3	3.7	2.9	2.6	252/327/436	267/352/426	263/345/403	1
Alejandro Kirk	Reality	4.3	2.3	2.8	3.1	285/372/415	250/334/358	253/319/359	1
Orelvis Martinez	Projection	0.2	1.4	0.6	0.7	226/275/426	218/280/426	221/289/413	--
Orelvis Martinez	Reality	--	--	-0.1	-0.1	203/286/446*	243/340/496*	267/346/523*	--
Spencer Horwitz	Projection	0.2	0.8	1.6	0.9	246/311/380	242/322/380	255/343/384	1
Spencer Horwitz	Reality	--	0.1	1.9	1.0	246/361/363*	256/341/385	265/357/433	1
Davis Schneider	Projection	--	1.6	2.9	2.3	--	222/303/393	230/333/430	1
Davis Schneider	Reality	--	1.9	0.4	1.2	253/366/457*	276/404/603	191/282/343	1
Daulton Varsho	Projection	1.5	2.6	1.9	2.0	251/319/433	258/325/478	241/304/455	2
Daulton Varsho	Reality	4.4	2.1	3.3	3.3	235/302/443	220/285/389	214/293/407	2
Ernie Clement	Projection	0.1	0.9	1.1	0.7	241/284/328	245/295/328	270/311/390	1
Ernie Clement	Reality	-0.8	0.6	2.2	0.7	184/243/209	380/385/500	263/284/408	1
Teoscar Hernández	Projection	1.8	2.0	1.8	1.9	268/324/505	253/308/462	263/314/472	2
Teoscar Hernández	Reality	2.9	1.9	3.5	2.8	267/316/491	258/305/435	272/339/501	2

A bit different than the hitters as we have 2 who never achieved the projections for them (Francis & Pearson, although Francis did by bWAR both in '23 and '24, but fWAR relies on FIP which thinks pitchers have no control over batted balls that stay in the park).
I listed a few guys no longer here in Garcia, Pearson, Mayza, Romano just so we'd be able to see bullpen projections over 3 years. Kikuchi's projection for 2022 was with Seattle.
Gausman, Kikuchi, and Garcia the only ones to avergage more fWAR than projected over the 3 years combined.
Kikuchi and Gausman both are FIP darlings but ERA laggards - looking at ERA+ you wouldn't expect the WAR totals you see. The Angels are clearly betting on Kikuchi being his FIP self, not his ERA self going forward.

Bottom line from all of this - seems in most cases 1 out of 3 times the player will not meet projections, and 1 out of 3 times they will exceed the projections. Very rare to always be better or always be worse. Can anyone pick up a pattern in who is better/worse to help guess when the ZIPs projections come out for the Jays at some point this winter? It'd be nice to have an idea as to who to expect to outplay expectations, or who will flop. If you can figure it out I'm sure Ross Atkins would like to talk with you.

		WAR				ERA+ IP
Who	What	2022	2023	2024	Avg	2022	2023	2024	Beat Projection
Kevin Gausman	Projection	3.7	3.0	3.6	3.4	125 - 165	117 - 162	124 - 169	2
Kevin Gausman	Reality	5.5	5.1	2.9	4.5	115 - 175	136 - 185	105 - 181	2
José Berríos	Projection	3.5	1.9	2.4	2.6	117 - 185	97 - 166	105 - 170	1
José Berríos	Reality	0.9	2.8	1.0	1.6	74 - 172	117 - 190	112 - 192	1
Alek Manoah	Projection	2.6	3.9	1.3	2.6	127 - 120	124 - 181	96 - 121	1
Alek Manoah	Reality	3.9	-0.5	0.0	1.1	172 - 197	73 - 87	110 - 24	1
Yusei Kikuchi	Projection	1.6	1.0	1.6	1.4	97 - 149	110 - 95	98 - 136	2
Yusei Kikuchi	Reality	-0.9	2.4	3.5	1.7	74 - 101	111 - 168	99 - 176	2
Bowden Francis	Projection	0.8	0.7	1.0	0.8	88 - 125	88 - 102	100 - 88	0
Bowden Francis	Reality	0.0	0.2	1.0	0.4	999 - 1	249 - 36	122 - 104	0
Jordan Romano	Projection	1.0	0.8	1.1	1.0	134 - 56	117 - 59	128 - 59	2
Jordan Romano	Reality	1.5	1.2	-0.3	0.8	183 - 64	149 - 59	63 - 14	2
Tim Mayza	Projection	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	126 - 51	50 - 118	119 - 55	1
Tim Mayza	Reality	0.0	1.3	-0.1	0.4	123 - 49	284 - 53	65 - 43	1
Nate Pearson	Projection	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.5	100 - 60	65 - 97	97 - 57	0
Nate Pearson	Reality	--	-0.1	0.1	0.0	--	89 - 43	90 - 66	0
Yimi García	Projection	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	105 - 53	106 - 56	106 - 57	2
Yimi García	Reality	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.7	125 - 61	105 - 66	116 - 39	2

Looking at Past Projections

Tuesday, November 26 2024 @ 10:14 AM EST