Contact vs HR in Playoffs

Saturday, October 12 2024 @ 02:47 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Mike Wilner keeps ranting about Atkins saying making contact is more important in the playoffs than home run power. Is that the case? Lets take a look.

I get this from listening to Wilner's Podcast (via the Star) - entertaining to listen to, but geez has he got a hate on for Atkins and Shapiro lately.  He doesn't have that for Schneider, and tends to be a players broadcaster (ie: few players in his doghouse unless they abuse women, then they are total scum which I agree with 100%).  When Atkins said that it was proven high contact in the playoffs is more important than hitting home runs that set him off on a multi-episode rant. So I figured lets dig in a bit.  Using K's as a substitute for contact (seems logical enough) and home runs to show raw power.  Yeah, K% would've been more accurate but for this exercise I figured simple was best - not like we have enough data to get more than broad strokes anyways unless I dug into all of baseball history (sorry, I do have a life).

Bold = best of the playoff teams at it (for hitters most HR, fewest K's, for pitchers the opposite obviously).  Italics indicates worst.  I put the teams in order of winning percentage in the regular season to help a bit in seeing what matters most of batter or pitcher HR or SO. ** = still playing in 2024, *champs* indicates won the World Series that year.

 HitterPitcherPlayoffsSeries
YearTeamHRSOHRSOWLWL
2024 Los Angeles Dodgers **
 233 1336 198 1390 3 2 1 0
2024 Philadelphia Phillies 198 1370 181 1433 1 3 0 1
2024 New York Yankees **
 237 1326 181 1457 3 1 1 0
2024 Milwaukee Brewers 177 1459 196 1373 1 2 0 1
2024 San Diego Padres 190 1077 169 1453 4 3 1 1
2024 Cleveland Guardians **
 185 1196 179 1410 3 2 1 0
2024 Baltimore Orioles 235 1359 175 1380 0 2 0 1
2024 Atlanta Braves 213 1461 150 1553 0 2 0 1
2024 New York Mets **
 207 1382 165 1455 5 2 2 0
2024 Houston Astros 190 1176 183 1479 0 2 0 1
2024 Detroit Tigers 162 1461 159 1354 4 3 1 1
2024 Kansas City Royals 170 1161 146 1339 3 3 1 1
2023 Atlanta Braves 307 1289 187 1516 1 3 0 1
2023 Baltimore Orioles 183 1370 177 1431 1 3 0 1
2023 Los Angeles Dodgers 249 1359 200 1388 0 3 0 1
2023 Tampa Bay Rays 230 1420 177 1507 0 2 0 1
2023 Milwaukee Brewers 165 1412 198 1425 0 2 0 1
2023 Houston Astros 222 1241 201 1460 6 5 1 1
2023 Philadelphia Phillies 220 1481 185 1454 6 5 1 1
2023 Texas Rangers *champs* 233 1416 198 1351 13 4 4 0
2023 Toronto Blue Jays 188 1303 198 1528 0 2 0 1
2023 Minnesota Twins 233 1654 194 1560 3 3 1 1
2023 Arizona Diamondbacks 166 1247 197 1351 10 7 3 1
2023 Miami Marlins 166 1287 191 1490 0 2 0 1
2022 Los Angeles Dodgers 212 1374 152 1465 1 3 0 1
2022 Houston Astros *champs*
 214 1179 134 1524 11 2 3 0
2022 Atlanta Braves 243 1498 148 1554 1 3 0 1
2022 New York Mets 171 1217 169 1565 1 2 0 1
2022 New York Yankees 254 1391 157 1459 3 6 1 1
2022 St. Louis Cardinals 197 1226 146 1177 0 2 0 1
2022 Cleveland Guardians 127 1122 172 1390 4 3 1 1
2022 Toronto Blue Jays 200 1242 180 1390 0 2 0 1
2022 Seattle Mariners 197 1397 186 1391 2 3 1 1
2022 San Diego Padres 153 1327 173 1451 6 6 2 1
2022 Philadelphia Phillies 205 1363 150 1423 11 6 3 1
2022 Tampa Bay Rays 139 1395 172 1384 0 2 0 1

So what do we see? This covers the current playoff system years (2022-2024) with the exception of games yet to be played (if I knew those results I'd be a very wealthy person).
So the best HR hitting teams went 7-10 winning 2 series, losing 2 while still being out there in 2024.  Fewest K's went 14-11 going 3-3 in series. Giving up fewest HR went 12-9 going 3-4 in series with 1 title. Most K's went 4-7 going 1-3 in series.
Hardly enough to say 'yes this works' or 'no that doesn't' when it comes to K's or HR by hitters or given up by pitchers. Slight edge to keeping K's down vs HR's hit, but that could change in the ALCS and WS potentially. Giving up HR or getting K's didn't seem to do much (yeah, 1 title but otherwise flops).

So what did the WS winners do?
So based on what Atkins says at this point the Guardians should be winning on offense, as should the Dodgers. But pitching-wise those 2 might be in trouble as they don't K people (relative to the group). For Wilner it is NYY/LAD for hitting, Mets/Guards for pitching.  Dang, split decision across the board - if they hit HR they also give them up, if they K hitters, they also K themselves.  Weird how that worked out.  If anyone can see what either of those 2 claim is critical in the playoffs let me know below as I can't see a solid pattern for high HR or low K batting being 'the key', or the reverse in pitching being key.  Hard to say what the playoff from here on out really say in regards to the two theories unless you feel it only applies to offense and not pitching (which IMO is weird - either it applies to both or neither).  IMO what matters most is being a good team and getting lucky/hot in the playoffs - how you are good is secondary to just being good.

Now, one could argue both mean during the playoffs but that is hardly something one can predict ahead of time now is it? Suppose your team faces a Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson in the playoffs then your K's go through the roof. Nah, regular season is the best measure of how a team was designed and that is what matters here.  

FYI: Soto, the super-free agent this winter, is a high HR, low K guy - 17.0% K% lifetime, 112 K's per 150 G (low for a slugger).  41 HR this year, 32 per 150 G lifetime.  For comparison Vlad is at 15.6% K%, 101 K/150 G, 29 HR/150 G lifetime. Those 2 are a LOT closer in those figures than I expected to be honest.

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