Blue Jays Report Card

Monday, September 30 2024 @ 07:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

You were warned.

It's well known that if you bitch and moan about a team that wins 90 games, you deserve a 74-88 team and three months of meaningless baseball.

That's just karma. I don't make the rules.

So we got what we deserved.

This season was generally so devoid of interest that I found my mind wandering. I did the first of these Report Cards back in 2009, which leaves many years of Blue Jays history unexamined. One day I found myself making notes for a 1977 Report Card, a prospect to chill the blood indeed. That way madness lies, let me shun that.

So for now, we're stuck with this. You'll notice that this year I'm somewhat obsessed with the random variations on the Balls In Play.

As always, I beg you to remember that these grades are extracted from somewhere in the vicinity of my nether regions. There is not, there never has been, there never will be, anything even remotely scientific about it. That's just the way it goes. I'm in it for the wisecracks.

Here's what they mean, more or less:

A Outstanding (could be in the Awards discussion)
B Good (might even receive All-Star consideration, who knows)
C Average (generic regular)
D Below Average (replacement level, bench part, something like that)
E Fail (probably belongs in the minors)
F Epic Fail (may need to think about alternative career paths)

The cutoff, as is my custom, was 50 Plate Appearances for the hitters and 50 Batters Faced for the pitchers. So I have nothing to say about Luis De Los Santos, Orelvis Martinez, Mitch White, Pablo Espino, Wes Parsons, Yerry Rodriguez, Brandon Eisert, Jose Cuas, Luis Frias, Jonatan Clase, Dillon Tate, Tyler Heineman, Easton Lucas, Brett de Geus, Nick Robertson. Lucky for them, and lucky for me as well. There are only so many ways one can say "this guy stunk, " which most of them did.

Non-Players

John Schneider D+
I don't think any of this was John Schneider's fault. He didn't do anything to fix it, but I don't know that any of what bedevilled this team was fixable. I think Schneider did a decent job of trying to get something useful out of a season that was lost before the All-Star Break. (Not as good a job as A.J. Hinch did, of course.) This team is loaded with players who started games at different positions - Guerrero, Horwitz, Barger, Schneider - as well as the usual multi-position infielders and outfielders all teams carry. While I'm not sold on the overall wisdom of this approach - I think players play better when they have one job to do and know what it is - in the day of the four man bench, one of whom has to be a catcher, all that versatility is obviously useful. Schneider seemed quite comfortable inventing new lineups with different people in different positions every day. Not all managers can cope with this sort of thing. Schneider was flexible, inventive, and willing to try things out. It's one of the things you can do in a season like this. Cito Gaston would have lost interest and checked out mentally by the All-Star Break.

Ross Atkins D-
Chris Bassitt wondered at one point why fans were letting the players off the hook - "they all want to blame Ross, I don't get it." Well, let me explain. Your modern fan is very well aware that he (or she) can't play the game as well as the pros who do, but quite firmly believes he (or she) is more than capable of Running the Show. (Back in the day, fans were certain they could do a better job than the field manager. We've promoted ourselves to the front office.) So that's why, Chris. When Atkins' boss was discussing the disappointment of 2024 back in August, there were two things he especially singled out. The first thing he mentioned was the bullpen because... DUH. (How could he not?) Atkins, who has successfully managed bullpen patch jobs before, completely failed to address it, for whatever reason. (Sometimes it can't be done, but sometimes it's not worth doing.) The other thing Shapiro mentioned was the gap that emerged between what they expected to get from the players, and what they actually received. It was reasonable to expect George Springer's general decline to continue, but no one expected this kind of season from him. And in no universe could anyone have expected Bo Bichette to play as badly as he did. I don't think those things can be blamed on the GM. Atkins did the responsible thing at the deadline, getting rid of everyone about to hit the market for whatever they could get back. In the final two months the team got a first peek at how lots of people who weren't at all expected to be part of the 2024 team looked in a major league uniform. This was useful, it was the right thing to do, and it was depressing as hell. I absolutely believe this team can be back in the fight in 2025, but Atkins has a fair bit of work to in the meantime. That's if he's still the one doing the work, of course, but I expect he'll be back.

Players

Vladimir Guerrero Jr A
Ecce Homo! I think that this, finally, is the guy he was meant to be (the sub-title of Nietzsche's very strange book is How One Becomes What One Is.) I suspect the 48 HRs back in 2021 led him astray - as I said around this time last year, he's not really a home run hitter. He doesn't have that kind of stroke, and trying to be a home run hitter - which he may have believed his team needed from him - messes up his game. He's a different kind of hitter. He's so strong, and he hits the ball so hard, the home runs are going to happen anyway. There were lots of other things I liked about his season, things I hadn't seen from him before. He's growing from a boy into a man, accepting and embracing the burden of his talent and what he means to the team.

Jose Berrios B

I wrote a bit about Berrios near the end of the season. He was not really at the top of his game this year, despite the 16 Wins (career high) and the 3.60 ERA (only 3.52 in 2021 was better.) In some ways, his work this year resembled his rather ugly 2022 season. But Berrios was very fortunate on what happened to the Balls In Play this year (.258) , which is the exact opposite of what happened two years ago (.329). The two season are almost the exact same distance from his established career mark (.291), just in opposite directions. He actually reminds me of Buehrle sometimes - he does everything a pitcher is supposed to do. He holds runners, he fields his position, he never misses a start. And it remains true that the Toronto Blue Jays have been more successful when Jose Berrios takes the mound than any other long-term (more than three years) starter in franchise history. You have to like that. It's also true that he and his team lost both games as soon as I pointed it out. My bad. Sorry, Jose.

Chad Green B
He was supposed to be a depth reliever behind Romano, Swanson, Garcia, and Mayza, especially after missing six weeks early on. Instead he ended up the last man standing, inherited the job of Closer, and did an outstanding job until the calendar turned to September. In just five games over two weeks, he allowed more runs than he'd allowed all season to that point. It's possible he simply ran out of gas - he hadn't pitched a full season since 2021, and it's not like his manager had a lot of other options. The three Losses and the three Blown Saves still happened, even if the team wasn't playing for anything by then, and he is accordingly being punished here by losing the A grade I had been all set to give him.

Bowden Francis B
Mike Green was always a believer. Me, I jeered and mocked and spoke Francis' name in the same breath as such useless ne'er do wells as Zach Pop. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. (When I say, as I often do, that nobody knows anything I am not excluding myself.) Anyway, Francis' first two starts back in April were so awful that they poisoned his numbers for a long time after. It seems extremely unlikely that he's destined to be the best pitcher in the AL - in his 9 starts over the last two months, the opposition hit .125 on their Balls in Play, and I can guarantee that isn't going to continue. But I'd still rather have him going forward than Kikuchi.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa B

Traded to Pittsburgh. He's always been a solid pro, but the Blue Jays got very lucky with him, as he had never swung the bat anywhere near as well as he did during his four months in Toronto.

Spencer Horwitz B
A weird player. One hates to declare a young player is only fit to be a Designated Hitter, but what are you going to do? You want to get that bat in the lineup. But I don't like him at first base - I noticed numerous plays Guerrero could have made that Horwitz simply couldn't because he's so small. He's also godawful slow, too slow for the outfield, and he doesn't have the arm for third base. He actually started more games at second base than anyone else on the 2024 Jays, but I don't think that's where his future lies, either. But you want to get that bat in the lineup.

Yimi Garcia B-

Was having the best season of his career before a sore elbow shelved him for a month. Traded to Seattle at the deadline, where he pitched well until the elbow began barking at him again, ending his season in mid-August. The Mariners got nine innings out of him, and the Blue Jays will get whatever Jonatan Clase amounts to, if anything.

Alejandro Kirk' B-
I'm sure they'll give the Gold Glove to someone else, but the fat kid deserves serious consideration. Kirk nailed 31% of potential base stealers (in a year when the MLB average was 21% and Will Smith of the Dodgers was the only MLB catcher who played as much as Kirk who could top that. Seattle was the only AL team that allowed fewer Wild Pitches and Passed Balls. His bat has failed to develop as people might have hoped, but I warned you about that, didn't I? He's a catcher, they don't develop as hitters, and I think his 2022 season was a bit of a fluke anyway. I would like to see a little bit more power - double digit homers, say - but this is just fine.

Ryan Yarbrough B-
A throwback, a LH finesse pitcher whose fastball doesn't break glass but someone who hits his spots and simply knows what he's doing. (So many of them don't.) He became the guy who provides a couple of innings of relief and keeps you in the game when the team is losing. That was Trevor Richards' old job, and Yarbrough was better than Richards.

Will Wagner B-
We need the numbers. The game is so complicated, the margins are so fine, that we need to count everything that happens and calculate things to multiple decimal points just to begin making distinctions between individuals. Nevertheless, as a wise Yogi once said, you can observe a lot by watching. I believed David Cooper was a better hitting prospect than Travis Snider, a conclusion based entirely on watching the two of them hit. (And I was right, too!) For much the same reason I believe Will Wagner is a major league hitter. I believe in that swing, so short, so quick, so compact. Almost slump-proof. (The first guy I thought of after seeing him hit was Paul Molitor. I do get carried away sometimes.) The numbers do tell us that he's hit everywhere he's gone (the one slight exception was his first full year in pro ball with a wooden bat.) He's probably not going to be a great second baseman, but if you hit enough (and your pitchers strike out enough guys) no one will care.

Nathan Lukes B-

He can hit, but the game simply doesn't have much use for players like this anymore. He's an outfielder who hits for a good average but doesn't do much else. He doesn't have any power and he doesn't have outstanding speed, and these days you need to hit around .320 to get away with that combination. He might make next year's team as the fourth outfielder, but only if: a) no outside upgrades are made, and b) the team decides just one of Clase, Loperfido, Roden et.al is making the 2025 team. Could happen.

Kevin Gausman C+
He was a solid, adequate starting pitcher - it's just that the team needs a little bit more from him. Even so, it's not apparent at first glance what was so different about his work this year. The strikeouts were down quite a bit, but the stuff he actually allowed - the walks, hits, and home runs - were all pretty close to the year before. The biggest difference I can see is in the results when men were on base - in 2023, he was really good (.218/.306/.311). This year he wasn't nearly as sharp (.258/.324//.437). For the most part, Gausman functions a little like Trevor Richards, basically a two pitch guy with that splitter in place of Richards' change-up. The main difference is that Gausman has a genuine elite fastball to go with his off-speed pitch. Still, the recipe can get predictable, and because Gausman like to throw his heater up in the zone, the hitters learn to lay off anything down in the zone, because they can be confident that it's going to break out of the zone. (Greg Maddux once said he couldn't even throw a change-up until he'd established that he could throw a low fastball for a strike.) Gausman understands all this of course, and he's begun trying to move his fastball around a little and mixing in the occasional slider. You never stop learning.

Alek Manoah C
I absolutely believe that the Manoah of 2021-22 is coming back. I don't want to count on it happening next August, though it might. But I am confident. It was his penultimate start of 2024 that sold me. The two preceding starts, in each of which he worked seven innings without allowing a single earned run, were pretty good but anyone can have a good game. Or two. No, it was the six runs he allowed in 4.2 against Detroit on May 24 that convinced me. For me, it was his Roy Halladay Game - that first game back from the minors in 2001, when Doc allowed 6 runs in 2.1, and in the process completely made a believer out of me.

Ryan Burr C

I assume he has at least earned a chance to compete for a job in the actual major league bullpen this team hopes to assemble for 2025. He hadn't struck out hitters this often since he was a wee tyke at Arizona State, and he also began to get the bases on balls under control.

Chris Bassitt C
He's still the same guy he's always been. He still gets his strikeouts, he still keeps the ball in the yard. The bases on balls were up quite a bit but his biggest problem was the opposition hitting an unsightly .335 on their Balls In Play - the previous high figure since he became a rotation starter was .282 with the 2022 Mets. So I suspect it's probably just random Bad Luck, unless the defense behind him isn't quite as elite as everyone believes it to be.

Ernie Clement C
He was the nearest thing this team had to a regular third baseman, which doesn't seem ideal to me. He's certainly a useful guy to have around - he's got some speed, he can competently handle several infield spots, and he can chip in with the bat. He did seem to have an unfortunate knack for messing up - an untimely error, a base running blunder - at the most inconvenient times, but that's probably just my very unscientific and very subjective impression. But here's an objective truth - it's really hard to be a positive offensive contributor when you hit into a double play as often as you draw a walk

Daulton Varsho C

A wonderful outfielder, of course. He's always going to struggle to stay above the Mendoza Line, for the same reasons it was a struggle for Cavan Biggio - he strikes out a lot, and he hits everything in the air. But Varsho doesn't strike out quite as often as Biggio and he gets a few more balls on the ground, where they have a chance to find a hole. Best of all, he hits a few more home runs.

Brendon Little C

You can certainly do worse, as the Blue Jays proved over and over this past season - I think he was better than Cabrera (not to mention Mayza,) That's a pretty low bar, but he did clear it. Still, you need to do better and the fact that Burr and Little were among the team's better relief options by the end of 2024 confuses and frightens me.

Yusei Kikuchi C
Traded to Houston. A weird pitcher. No Jays starter struck out hitters more frequently and only Bowden Francis walked them less often. But Kikuchi gave up 130 Hits in just 115.2 IP, and the opposition was often able to bunch them in to productive groups. I'm sure some of it was the random ill luck of the Balls In Play finding holes, but I never found it possible to trust him for a single moment. He's really fun, really likeable, and I wish him well wherever he ends up. But I hope it's not here.

Genesis Cabrera C

He led the team in relief appearances and innings, and there was little to like about it - too many hits, too many homers, too many walks, not many strikeouts. His success, such as it was, was mostly done with mirrors.

Justin Turner C-
Traded to Seattle, and he hit quite a bit better for the Mariners than he did here. Can't play the field anymore, and while he can still hit a little - and that little would actually be quite splendid if he played a key defensive position - one really wants more offense from a guy who provides nothing else.

Trevor Richards C-
He actually pitched very well for the Blue Jays for three months, and he was only here for four. He was probably overworked, what with the rest of the bullpen crumbling around him, and he lost the plot sometime in July. Traded to Minnesota, but had some control issues there and was DFA'd after 10 appearances. He accepted his minor league assignment, ended the season on the temporarily inactive list, and will probably have to settle for a minor league deal next spring. I've always liked him, but I think I'll pass. As we all know by now, Richards is a one-trick pony. Granted, destroying the hitter's timing is one of the game's best, most fundamental tricks. But he's basically a con man, and no con man can keep working in the same town very long. My uncle, who was an actual honest-to-goodness con artist, explained that "you leave your face everywhere you go." I think AL hitters have seen this face often enough that they're wise to the con.

Danny Jansen D+
Traded to Boston, where he made a little history and may have generated the weirdest Game Log bb-ref.com has ever had to produce. (And that suspended game produced plenty of weird Game Logs, with guys listed as being traded to the Jays for a day, traded back to their original team, and then traded to the Jays for keeps later on.) Anyway, I think everyone assumes that the Red Sox will try to keep him, and everyone assumes that Jansen must enjoy aiming at that Green Monster. Maybe they will, and maybe he does - but he's actually never hit very well in Fenway Park (he likes Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards much better), and the Red Sox already have an established number one catcher. I assume he'll be looking for his best chance to be someone's number one catcher - there's bound to be someone, surely - but that wouldn't be either Boston or Toronto. And you probably shouldn't hit .205/.309/.349 when you're heading into free agency.

Yariel Rodriguez D+

You can certainly see what they like about him - and they've certainly made a real commitment - but this was very much a Year of Adjustment, a period of transition. They clearly expect him to be a starting pitcher, but... nibble, nibble, nibble. He could still end up in next year's bullpen, if the other four hold up and Manoah comes back strong. He may have to end up there - at the moment it simply takes him too many pitches to get through his innings. Throw strikes - Babe Ruth is still dead.

George Springer D+
Since 2016, Springer had played at least 100 games in eight seasons. Here's his BABiP in those eight seasons: .342, .317, .297, .303, .305, .285, .291, .244. Yeah, I think what happened to his balls in play this year was just plain weird. Springer came into this season with a career mark of exactly .300, and if his batted ball luck comes back to something reasonably close to normal - and it should - he'll be just fine. He still runs well, he still has some pop, he still takes a walk. I expect him to bounce back with something like his 2018 season in Houston: .265/.346/.434. That's not a great player, but we weren't expecting that in his age 35 season.

Tommy Nance D+

An enormous RH who's always had trouble with the walks at the major league level. Made some progress on that front while he was here, but stopped striking people out.

Bo Bichette D

Of course he seemed miserable. He was having a terrible year and he kept getting hurt. You'd be miserable too. Bichette is one of those quiet, intense types who takes his troubles to heart. He knew he was letting himself down, and letting his team down, and the pressure he puts on himself only made matters worse. He's always better off when he relaxes and trusts his talent.

Leo Jimenez D
He's a whole year and change younger than Vlad, and we haven't seen enough yet to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools. (Get ready to hear that sentence again.) Jimenez was the best of the ones we don't really know about yet. He's got some promise - he can hit a little, he can play some middle infield defense - but there's a problem. Unless Bichette is traded (this is not the best time, surely), or Clement ends up the incumbent at third base (not my first choice) I don't know what they're going to do with him. He's still young enough to make something of himself, but I'm pretty sure he's also out of options. Well, they've got a long Canadian winter to sort it all out. As you probably noticed, Jimenez was hit by 16 pitches in just 179 Plate Appearances, or once every 11.2 PApps, which is simply ridiculous. Ron Hunt was only hit once every 12.6 PApps when he was hit 50 times in 1971 to set the modern record. While Jimenez, like Hunt, has always been hit by a lot of pitches, this season was almost certainly just One of Those Things that happens from time to time (as was Hunt's 1971 season.) It did give him a pretty nifty OnBase for a .229 hitter, but don't count on it ever happening again.

Joey Loperfido D
He's two months younger than Vlad and we haven't seen enough yet to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools. Loperfido started his Blue Jay career by going 4-36, which didn't exactly make a winning first impression. He was better after that (.228/.281/.406 from August 13 through the end) and showed a bit of pop, a bit of speed, and some good play in the outfield. I suppose, for the moment, he is the incumbent left fielder. Not wild about that. Loperfido might be a player. He might be the new Billy McKinney. We just don't know.

Addison Barger D
He's eight months younger than Vlad and we haven't seen enough yet to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools. Barger didn't make a great first impression either, going 1-18 during his first call-up, and he didn't exactly take the league by storm when he came back to stay in mid-June (.211/.267/.379) He's got a big arm and decent enough range, but he may be a little too error-prone for third base. At the plate, he definitely has some pop and his minor league history suggests he's quite willing to take a walk. He didn't walk much at all at the major league level but that's probably because major league pitchers are generally willing to challenge everybody until they're given an actual reason to proceed with a bit more caution. Barger didn't give them enough reason. Maybe he will, but he probably needs a little more seasoning.

Steward Berroa D

He's three months younger than Vlad and we haven't seen enough to know if there's a ballplayer to go along with the tools. I think Berroa's got a chance to be a useful leadoff type hitter - he only needs to hit about .260 to pull it off - but I'm certain no one's going to give him a chance to do just that. Game done changed. He was born about 40 years too late.

Kevin Kiermaier D-
Traded to Los Angeles (Dodgers), having already indicated he planned to retire at season's end. Still a wonderful outfielder, but he can't hit at all anymore. Not even a teeny, tiny little bit. Still, what a great run he had. Tampa Bay drafted him in the 31st round back in 2010. He was the 941st player chosen. Nobody knows anything.

Nate Pearson D-
Traded to Chicago (Cubs,) and pitched just great for them for a little while. But he had his good spells here as well. Pearson's got a big arm, but major league hitters sure don't seem to have much trouble squaring up his fastball, and his command of the rest of his repertoire comes and goes. Doesn't really know how to pitch yet, but why would he? He's barely cleared 400 pro innings.

Erik Swanson D-
I'll give him a mulligan for 2024 and so should you. There is no way, no way on earth he could give the game his whole focus this year. And at this level the margins are so fine that that's all it takes for things to go completely sideways. The team gave him almost two months at AAA to do a kind of reboot on his season, and he was just fine upon his return.

Jordan Romano D-
On the one hand, he was getting his job done as well as ever - 8 Saves in 9 opportunities is all you can ask for. On the other hand, he wasn't pitching very well at all (he was actually scored upon in four of those Saves) and elbow miseries ended his season before the end of May.

Davis Schneider D-
Played very well indeed for about six weeks - but he was so irredeemably awful for the next four months as to put his very viability as a major league player into question. From May 12 through September 11 he hit .159/.248/.274 in 90 games. Lord, he was useless. He woke from his coma in mid-September to suddenly rap out seven hits and three homers in three games, then promptly went 1-28 to finish his season. As best as I can figure, the only reason he survived this long stretch of awfulness was the simple fact that all the other unproven hitters the team was looking at - Horwitz, Barger, Loperfido, Wagner, Lukes - happen to hit left-handed.

Cavan Biggio D-
Traded to Los Angeles (Dodgers), who released him soon enough. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants, but he didn't play very well in Sacramento either. The injury-ravaged Braves took a flyer on him anyway. He got into a couple of games, but finished the year in AAA. I always liked him, but I'm not going to be stubborn about it. All the strikeouts have simply swallowed up his offense. He'll be looking for a minor league deal somewhere (what, the Braves are going to offer him arbitration?) if he wants to keep his career alive.

Brian Serven E
Obviously not a major league hitter - the guy couldn't hit in Colorado - and while he has a good defensive reputation his work behind the plate didn't impress me all that much. He ended up being DFA'd when the Jays claimed old acquaintance Tyler Heineman on waivers. I should think that finding someone to partner with Kirk behind the dish has to be an off-season priority.

Zach Pop E
I suppose there's enough in Pop's pitching toolbox - he's got a breaking ball, he can throw hard - to make one think that maybe he'll find a way be useful someday, somehow. But it hasn't happened. He doesn't seem to have a clue how to make use of the tools he has to get hitters out. Not the foggiest, and no one else seems to have any idea either. By the time September came around, I was convinced that Pop's appearance in a game meant John Schneider's focus had shifted to improving the team's draft position. Begone! Avaunt, and quit my sight!

Tim Mayza F
Released and signed to a minor league deal by the Yankees. After a month in AAA, rediscovering his game, he was back in the majors, pitching more or less like the Mayza we've always known - lots of hits, not so many walks or homers. He was doing this for the Damn Yankees. In the post-season.

Daniel Vogelbach F

Released and presumably looking for a minor league deal somewhere. I'll be extremely surprised if he finds one.

117 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20240923130010877