Batter's Box Interactive Magazine: What's Available vs What is Needed

What's Available vs What is Needed

Sunday, November 03 2024 @ 11:29 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

For 2025 the Jays need to figure out where they are weak vs MLB, and where they are strong. What they can improve on and by how much.

So, lets do some basics here... All stats via FanGraphs (FA via BR) with WAR being what they did overall (position is whatever 'primary position' is at FG). Free agent figures via their nice 2025 Free Agent Tracker

C: 2 guys were at the top with 5.4 fWAR - William Contreras & Cal Raleigh (both FA post 2027). Kirk was tied for 8th at C with 2.8. For guys with sub 90 games (thus worthwhile backups) #1 in WAR was Willson Contreras at 2.6 (FA '27), then Iván Herrera at 2.1 (FA post 2030), then Victor Caratini at 1.9. Top free agents are Carson Kelly (1.8), Kyle Higashioka (1.6), Yasmani Grandal (1.4), Danny Jansen (0.5) - not a lot of quality but lots of backups (11 with 0-1.8 fWAR).

1B: Vlad was #1 at 5.5, Bryce Harper #2 5.2, then Freeman at 4 before a big drop to 3.2 (Carlos Santana) and drops. Santana is a FA but had just a 114 wRC+ which isn't what the Jays want (should Vlad move to 3B). Christian Walker is next at 3.0 (119 wRC+), then Pete Alonso and his 122 wRC+ looks good, but his price will be high.

2B: Ketel Marte #1 at 6.3, big drop to Semien at 4.2 for #2. Top Jay was Horwitz at 1.9 (#19), then Wagner at 0.6 (#36) in just 24 games. Horwitz won't be there, but Wagner will most likely. Schneider at 0.4 will probably platoon with Wagner or Jiménez (0.6) will. Can't see the Jays trading or signing anyone here with so many decent looking options - more a battle royale all year to see who gets/keeps it with Orelvis Martinez also in the mix.

3B: José Ramírez #1 6.5, Matt Chapman #2 5.5 (sniff), free agent to be Alex Bregman tied at #3 at 4.1 with Rafael Devers. Clement was at 2.2 (#20) so good enough to be a regular, but not a star, Vlad had 12 games there, Barger a blowout at -0.3 (showed hope at times, and slumped terribly at times), Luis De Los Santos was at -0.1 in his 13 games (probably the most games he'll get in the majors in any one year). Big incentive to put Vlad there or sign Bregman I'd say with Clement a solid, but unspectacular, backup plan, and dreams of Barger and/or Orelvis Martinez becoming a star.

SS: Witt Jr. was #1 with 10.4 fWAR (!), #2 was Henderson at 8.0, then Lindor at 7.8 (Jays were so close to getting him...sigh). Clement had 39 games there, Jimenez 40. Bo Bichette in 81 games just 0.3. Obviously no trades/free agents to improve here as Bo gets a chance to up his value before free agency with Jimenez and Clement both acceptable replacements during any IL time or if he gets traded, but there are rumors of the Jays kicking tires on Willy Adames (4.8) and Ha-Seong Kim (2.6). Kim has played a lot at 3B and 2B with 'WOW' defense, Adames more a power guy (24-32 HR each of the past 4 years) - but odds are if either is signed Bo is traded.

OF: Judge #1 11.2 (not moving), Soto #2 8.1 (Free agent), Duran #3 6.7 (FA after '28). Varsho #23 at 3.3, Springer #72 at 1.2, Lukes #94 at 0.7 in his 22 games. Berroa at 0.4 over 28 G (surprised me, crazy high defense), Schneider (0.4). Roden in AAA had a wRC+ of 140, 133 in AAA - so he has to be on the radar as an injury fill-in for 2025, but can't see him starting opening day. LF will be a big battle with Loperfido in the chase despite a 74 wRC+ in the majors (124 in AAA) this year. Clase also in the chase despite an 87 wRC+ in the majors (26 games) thanks to his crazy speed. I expect Lukes to be the backup, someone to be signed/traded for to be the everyday LF, and the kids to fight for a shot at it (Loperfido/Clase/Roden the starting Buffalo OF with Berroa getting lots of time too). Top free agents we've heard about - Soto (8.1 '24/6.4 proj '25), Profar (4.3/2.3), Hernández (3.5/2.2),Santander (3.3/2.5), Pederson (3.0/1.6), O'Neill (2.5/1.8), Verdugo might be a bargain (0.6/1.6) but you'd have to believe his bat can come back to life.

DH: Ohtani 9.1, Alvarez 5.3, Rooker 5.1, Ozuna 4.7. Top Jay was Turner at 1.2. A wide open situation, Horwitz our likely #1 with Vlad getting time here too, and probably Springer in 2025 also. I suspect this'll be kept open unless a big fish falls into the Jays lap.

Free Agent hitters over 3 fWAR: 9 - Soto (OF 8.1/6.4), Adames (SS 4.8/3.4), Profar (OF 4.3/2.3), Bregman (3B 4.1/4.0), Teoscar (OF 3.5/2.2), Santander (OF 3.3/2.5), Santana (1B 3.0/0.9), Walker (1B 3.0/2.5), Pederson (DH 3.0/1.6). These are the big targets this winter. Soto would be an improvement of 7.6 WAR from Lukes (#3 for OF WAR in 2024 for the Jays) so that is by far the biggest impact possible and given he is with the Yankees that would be a double bonus - 14 game shift in the standings - enough to put the Jays in eyeshot of the Yankees before anything else is done. A shame it is very unlikely to happen. Adames would be a big boost at SS if Bo isn't returning (possible) but I don't see a likely path to that happening. Profar would be over a 3 WAR improvement on our current situation in the OF, as would Teoscar and Santander. Any of them would be solid signings. Santana and Walker would be if the Jays decide to put Vlad at 3B for 2025 and beyond (if he can handle a full year there). Catching has the odd guy worth digging into as a backup, (Jacob Stallings from Colorado 118 OPS+ in '24, entering age 35 season, just an 83 OPS+ lifetime)

Trades are tougher - weak teams dumping salary or good teams trading away guys to make room. Checking teams with wins in the 70's or lower, thus likely to be in a rebuild or are just plain old cheap.

Oakland: Rooker (DH/OF, first year of arb), Miguel Andujar (LF/1B, can play 3B/RF) 103 OPS+ (lifetime and 2024) final year of arb, so interesting possibility but not a real target.
Angels: claim to want to contend in 2025 (heh) Taylor Ward is somewhat interesting (LF 111 OPS+/110 lifetime) but that's about it. And no, Trout isn't available nor would the Jays want that massive crazy contract.
Colorado: nothing worth digging into that I see.
White Sox: nothing really catches my eye. At first Benintendi was kind of interesting but he is owed $49.3 mil over the next 3 years and would be a platoon at best guy here.
Miami: Jake Burger is a 1B/3B with a 111 OPS+ lifetime, 103 last year hits around 30 HR a year so could be interesting going into age 29 season, but still pre-arb so Miami probably not wanting to trade. Xavier Edwards would be sweet but again, pre-arb so no way they trade him (SS/2B/CF).
Washington: nothing jumps out at me outside of their kids who won't be available
Reds: Tyler Stephenson C/DH/1B 28, FA post 26, in arb now, 112 OPS+ so a solid hitter would be a nice mix with Kirk. Not much else there that makes me think 'yeah, that'd be an upgrade' outside of Elly De La Cruz who ain't available unless their GM goes insane.
Pittsburgh: backup catcher Joey Bart is solid, in arb years, but given Pittsburgh's limited resources they might want to dump him for a pre-arb guy. Just a lot of nothing there.

Yeah, looking at it all I see is a lot of backups and few regulars that might be available. This winter might be a Soto or bust situation. Santander, Profar, Teoscar all could help, Walker is interesting too. But Soto & Bregman are the only obvious 'wow' additions. Kim would fit the defense first view at 3B but isn't a really good fit as he is more a SS.

Also worth thinking about is starting pitchers (#1 level only - we have 5 solid guys as is), and of course a need for lots of pen (2 high end ideally)

Starters: Corbin Burnes is the big prize (3.7/3.9), then Blake Snell (3.1/3.7), Max Fried (3.4/3.2), Yusei Kikuchi (3.5/2.9), and Jack Flaherty (3.2/2.8) - all with 3+ fWAR last year and projected over 2.5 in 2025. All other starters are 'meh' and we have lots of 'meh' as is.
Pen: Jeff Hoffman the only FA with 2+ fWAR last year 0.9 proj, Also of note: Kirby Yates (1.9/0.4), David Robertson (1.9/0.7), Tanner Scott (1.6/0.9). The only ones with 1.5+ fWAR last year. Projections for relievers are almost pure crapshoots.Yimi García will be out there, along with many others. Ideally the Jays pick one or two they really want, then wait on anyone else to fill in holes. Robertson would be damn tempting due to his experience and results, Hoffman due to his recent success.

So the Soto insanity makes the most sense (hey it ain't my money) - make a crazy offer tomorrow when he is signable and see if he bites. If not, then move on quickly rather than being caught empty handed like last winter. Santander is my top choice for OF/DH after Soto.