Trade Deadline Reflections
Tuesday, August 06 2024 @ 01:04 PM EDT
Contributed by: John Northey
Back from a week+ away - did anything interesting happen? Oh, it did.
Numbers via FanGraphs (tend to be the easiest to use)
Old guys who are gone:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa - we barely knew ya. 2.0 fWAR while here, projected 0.3 to 0.5 the rest of 2024. 2025 projection was just 0.3 fWAR so not much lost most likely unless he keeps going like he has here (116 wRC+, next best in his career is a 91 in 2020, 86 in a full year-2022)
- Danny Jansen - was the longest Jay for a brief period. 0.6 fWAR while here, 9.6 lifetime pre-trade. Projection was nice for 2024 rest of season at 0.5-0.8 fWAR, then a free agent with 2.0 and 1.9 fWAR projections the next 2 years. Hopefully he comes back this winter.
- Justin Turner - another we barely knew. 0.4 while here, 0.1-0.4 projected ROS. Then a free agent, with 2025/26 projected at 0.7 and 0.3 fWAR each.
- Kevin Kiermaier - fun guy, but his time was up. 0.3 while here, 0.1-0.5 ROS. Then retires so any projection for 2025 is irrelevant. His interview on the Deep Left Field podcast was nice to listen to - it was from just before he was traded. He seems to have loved his time here and will always wonder 'what if' he had played on grass instead of turf his whole career.
- Yusei Kikuchi - from disaster to wow to 'what will we get today'. 2.3 fWAR this year, projected at 0.6-0.8 for ROS, then a free agent. 2025/26 projected at 0.9 and 0.4 fWAR (ick). Still, would be nice to get him back this winter if he seems likely to do more like 2024 than his projections say.
- Yimi García - always a good reliever, having a great year when healthy - 0.8 here, 0.1-0.3 projected ROS then a free agent. 0.1 each of the next 2 years projected. Relievers are such a crap shoot.
- Trevor Richards - Seemed a nice guy, but never felt safe with him. 0.1 here, 0-0.1 projected ROS then a free agent, 0.6 and 0.4 projected next 2 years
- Nate Pearson - Always a prospect. Sigh. 0.0 here, -0.3 as a Jay lifetime. 0-0.1 ROS. 2025/26 projected at 0.3 each.
Phew. Lots gone. But just projected as a group to be worth, at best, 3.5 fWAR this year, with 2025 IKF 0.3, and 2025/26 Pearson 0.6 (given his variability could be negative, could be 5 fWAR, neither would shock me). So based on projections the Jays lost 4.4 fWAR in these deals, and maybe a draft pick (compensation for losing Kikuchi as a free agent), maybe.
Lets make a chart to review all the new players (so many)...
| For |
Player |
Age |
Current Level |
B/T |
Prime Pos |
Sec Pos |
Slash line
2024 |
Draft/
IFA |
FG Score |
MLB Jays |
Notes |
| Pearson |
Yohendrick Pinango |
22 |
AA |
L/L |
LF |
RF/CF |
261/364/433 |
IFA 2018 |
35+ |
26 |
$400k bonus |
| Pearson |
Josh Rivera |
23 |
AA |
R/R |
SS |
3B/2B |
171/277/259 |
22nd 2019 |
35+ |
30 |
|
| Garcia |
Jacob Sharp |
22 |
A+ |
R/R |
C |
RF/LF |
259/346/460 |
17th 2023 |
-- |
-- |
|
| Garcia |
Jonatan Clase |
22 |
AAA |
S/R |
CF |
LF/RF |
268/366/467 |
IFA 2018 |
40 |
7 |
$35k bonus, 213-45 SB-CS career |
| Richards |
Jay Harry |
21 |
A+ |
L/R |
2B |
SS/3B/OF |
211/302/353 |
6th 2023 |
-- |
-- |
|
| Kikuchi |
Will Wagner |
25 |
AAA |
L/R |
2B |
3B/1B/
SS |
320/436/456 |
18th 2021 |
35+ |
21 |
|
| Kikuchi |
Joey Loperfido |
25 |
ML |
L/R |
CF |
1B/2B/
LF/RF |
272/365/568 |
7th 2021 |
45 |
-- |
84 OPS+ ML |
| Kikuchi |
Jake Bloss |
23 |
AAA |
R/R |
SP |
-- |
1.64 ERA AAA |
3rd 2023 |
50 |
3 |
60 ERA+ ML |
| IKF |
Charles McAdoo |
22 |
AA |
R/R |
2B |
3B/RF/
LF/1B |
306/388/522 |
13th 2023 |
-- |
13 |
|
| Turner |
RJ Schreck |
23 |
AA |
L/R |
LF |
RF/CF |
254/394/448 |
9th 2023 |
-- |
29 |
|
| Jansen |
Gilberto Batista |
19 |
Rk |
R/R |
SP |
-- |
3.92 ERA |
IFA 2022 |
-- |
-- |
$10k bonus |
| Jansen |
Cutter Coffey |
20 |
A+ |
R/R |
3B |
SS/2B |
234/317/448 |
2nd 2022 |
40 |
28 |
|
| Jansen |
Eddinson Paulino |
21 |
AA |
L/R |
SS |
3B/2B/CF |
263/349/391 |
IFA 2018 |
40 |
20 |
$205k bonus |
| Kiermaier |
Ryan Yarbrough |
32 |
ML |
R/L |
RP |
SP |
106 ERA+ |
4th 2014 |
NA |
NA |
free agent post 2024 |
The Jays pre-2024 had 31 35+ prospects, just 2 50+ guys (Tiedemann & Orelvis Martinez). Now they have another 50 in Bloss, plus 7 more 35+ guys totaling 39 35+'s from the pre-2024 evaluations. Obviously some guys will have climbed up and others down while some will graduate off it (Loperfido obviously, Bloss might too, while longer time Jays Barger & Jimenez will graduate also, while others are gone like
Yosver Zulueta).
Not a full analysis but a quick and dirty look as a summary of what happened. Overall I like it. Just need any one of these guys to develop into something half decent for it to be a net positive for the club, and quite frankly Pearson is the only one who could make any of this look bad - if by some miracle he becomes what we've always dreamed he'd become, just in time to become a free agent.
Just for a laugh - what did the guys we lost cost the Jays originally? Free Agents: Turner, IKF, Kikuchi, Kiermaier, Garcia. Richards was a trade (for
Rowdy Tellez, we also got
Bowden Francis in that deal). Pearson was a 1st round pick (#28 -
Brendon Little picked just before him). Jansen was a 16th round pick in 2013. So for Rowdy Tellez, a late 1st round pick, and a 16th round pick (none of the free agents cost the Jays a draft pick) I'd say that is a decent return. Shows the value of doing decently in free agency. Atkins has done well in free agency overall (both value ones and expensive), now if the Jays could just develop guys a bit better I'd be a lot happier as would we all.
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