Areas of Need

Monday, July 08 2024 @ 11:58 AM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

On a boring 'no game day' and with the season looking like a lost one (odds of playoffs at 2.5% as I type), let's look at what the Jays future needs are and when, with who is next in line for each position.

Trades are likely to happen. All free agent to be's for post 2024 have to be on the market as the Jays try to retool for 2025 - Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Danny Jansen, Trevor Richards, Yimi García (once healthy), Kevin Kiermaier.  But when trading you traditionally go for areas of need (be it immediate or soon) vs the draft/IFA where you take the best available (due to the 5+ year time frame before the player is ready for the majors in most cases, John Olerud an obvious exception).  So it is chart time!

Pos Current 2024 fWAR
2025 fWAR 2026 fWAR FA Post Next in line
C Danny Jansen 1 2 1.9 2024 Alejandro Kirk
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.8 2.9 2.7 2025 Spencer Horwitz
2B Spencer Horwitz 1.2 1.4 1.4 -- Orelvis Martinez
3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2 0.3 0.1 2025 Addison Barger
SS Bo Bichette 0.3 3.8 3.3 2025 Leo Jiménez
LF Daulton Varsho 1.8 2.1 2 2026 Davis Schneider
CF Kevin Kiermaier 0 1.5 1.1 2024 Daulton Varsho
RF George Springer 1.2 1.8 1.2 2026 Addison Barger
DH Justin Turner 0.3 0.7 0.3 2024 ???
UT Alejandro Kirk 0.8 2.9 3 2026
UT Davis Schneider 0.9 3.2 3.5 --
UT Ernie Clement 0.2 1.1 0.8 2028
UT Leo Jiménez 0.1 1.1 1.2 --
PED Orelvis Martinez -0.1 1.2 1.6 --
AAA Addison Barger -0.7 1.2 1.3 --

Minor leaguers to note: Arjun Nimmala SS/IF ETA 2028, Josh Kasevich 3B 2027, Enmanuel Bonilla RF 2029

Pos Current 2024 fWAR 2025 fWAR 2026 fWAR FA Post Next in line
SP Chris Bassitt 1.9 1.9 1.2 2025 Alek Manoah
SP Yusei Kikuchi 1.8 0.9 0.4 2024 Bowden Francis
SP Kevin Gausman 1.5 3.2 2.5 2026 Ricky Tiedemann
SP José Berríos 0.3 2.2 1.9 2026
SP Yariel Rodríguez 0.4 0.3 0.3 2028
CL Jordan Romano -0.3 0.4 0.3 2025
RP Yimi García 0.7 0.1 0.1 2024
RP Trevor Richards 0.4 0.6 0.4 2024
RP Nate Pearson 0.2 0.3 0.3 2026
RP Brendon Little 0 0.1 0.2 --
RP Bowden Francis 0 0.8 1 --
RP Chad Green -0.1 0.5 0.5 2025
RP Génesis Cabrera -0.3 0.3 0.3 2025
RP Zach Pop -0.5 0 0 2027
AAA Erik Swanson 0.4 0.5 0.4 2025
IL Alek Manoah 0 1.3 1.2 2027

Minor leaguers of note: Brandon Barriera ETA 2027, Kendry Rojas 2026, Juaron Watts-Brown 2026, T.J. Brock 2025, Adam Macko 2024

All 'of note' were listed on FanGraphs as 40+ quality, I ignored the rest for this exercise.  Estimated WAR is ZiPS estimates from pre 2024.  The 'next in line' is my guess - for pitchers I went in order of likelihood to be used, not direct replacements as obviously Kikuchi is first to be replaced, not Bassitt (unless a surprise trade happens).  For guys with under 1 years experience I put -- as their expected FA year - it won't be before 2029 for certain (Schneider), and not before 2030 in many cases.

I'm betting many here have strong opinions on who is likely to be next for many positions, what minor leaguers are charging and which are dropping. Who the Jays should trade for, or what they should look for.  My gut is pitching, pitching, pitching. But if quality hitters are there then grab them. This years draft is for guys who will replace Horwitz, Orelvis, Barger, etc. in 5 years, maybe the odd guy who will be ready in 2-3 years but very few get through the system that quickly - July 14th is draft day btw and Cleveland has the first overall pick.

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