The Greatest Living Baseball Player

It's been much more confusing in the past, of course. I know, for example, that the greatest major leaguers before 1947 were Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, and Walter Johnson. Almost certainly in that order. But I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, how we can compare that trio to Josh Gibson, Oscar Charleston, and Satchel Paige. But 1947, thankfully, was a long time ago.The playing field is now open.

The greatest living baseball player in 1947 was Babe Ruth, of course. Before that, it's hard to be sure. Ruth was born in 1895, and one could make a technical argument that Ruth was the greatest living baseball player from that date forward until the day he died. But that would be silly. The greatest living baseball player from 1900 until some time in the 1920s was probably Honus Wagner. Ruth takes the crown away from him in the 1920s and - probably - wears it for the rest of his life. I say "probably" because it's hard to know just how great Josh Gibson - who was kind of a combination of Johnny Bench and Ruth himself - actually was. But Gibson died in January 1947, and Ruth is alone on the summit for the last year of his life. After Ruth was gone, Wagner briefly gets his title back. Wagner died in 1955, and at that moment the greatest living player was probably Ty Cobb. After Cobb's death in 1961, I nominate an active player, Mickey Mantle. Willie Mays overtakes Mantle in the 1960s, and holds the honour of Greatest Living Player for the next 60 years. Until today. Who is it now?

I posed this conundrum to Eephus, who instantly texted back a single name: "Shohei." 

Which is both tempting and intriguing. Shohei Ohtani is not just a great player - he is one of the most remarkable players in the history of the game, a true unicorn. We have never seen the like. In some ways, what he did from 2021 through 2023 (and, hopefully, may yet do again) is more impressive than anything Babe Ruth ever did. For three years, Ohtani took both his regular turn in the rotation and a regular turn in the batting order when he wasn't pitching. Ruth never did that. During the two seasons (1918-19) when Ruth was both a hitter and a pitcher he was more of a part time player at both jobs.

Of course, Ohtani hasn't had a season yet when he was the best pitcher in the league; he certainly never had a year when he made 40 starts and worked 323 IP with an ERA of 1.75 and an ERA+ of 158 (both figures leading the league.) He didn't set a World Series pitching record (consecutive scoreless innings) that lasted longer than his famous home run records.

Barry Bonds      162.8
Roger Clemens    139.2
Alex Rodriguez   117.6
Rickey Henderson 111.1
Mike Schmidt     106.9

Greg Maddux      106.6
Albert Pujols    101.4
Randy Johnson    101.1
Carl Yastrzemski  96.5
Cal Ripken        95.9

Bert Blyleven     94.5
Adrian Beltre     93.5
Wade Boggs        91.4
Steve Carlton     90.2
George Brett      88.6

No matter. I wish I could say the greatest living player is Adrian Beltre. Hey, who was more fun? But, like it or not, the greatest living baseball player for now has to be Barry Bonds. 

Bonds arrived as a great player at age 25, and from ages 26 to 34 he did his level best to match Lou Gehrig's production. Let me expound a little on what that means. Lou Gehrig in his far too brief time on earth may never have been the world's greatest living player (Ruth, Wagner, etc.) - nevertheless, more than 80 years after his death, Gehrig still has an excellent case as the greatest first baseman who ever lived. I reckon that if it hadn't been for ALS, Gehrig would have finished up with about 650 HRs and more than 3700 Hits. He also would have had more RBIs and more Runs Scored than anyone in the history of the game.

That's who Barry Bonds was doing a decent job of keeping up with in the first part of his career, before he grew all those muscles. He's not quite matching Gehrig's level of performance, but just being as close as he was is pretty remarkable.

I even made a chart back in the day that shows just how closely Bonds and Gehrig tracked each other during their careers, which I provide here for your amusement.

          G    PA    AB    R      H    2B   3B   HR   RBI   SB   CS    BB    SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+    TB  GDP  HBP 
Mays    2005  8641  7594  1497  2381  375  118  505  1402  276   86   949   893  .314  .389  .594  .982  163   4507  174   27 
Bonds   2000  8534  6976  1455  2010  423   65  445  1299  460  132  1430  1112  .288  .410  .559  .968  163   3898  116   53 

It doesn't get much closer than that. (Strictly as a hitter, Bonds is much, much closer to Mays than he was to Gehrig) Pretty well all the other elements of the game favour Willie, of course, but we don't seriously expect anyone to be a better all-around player than Willie Mays, do we? Bonds' only weakness as a player was a comparatively mediocre throwing arm, which is why he ended up in left field.

Mike Trout is the Wild Card. Through 2023, his age 31 season, Trout ranks ahead of both Mays and Bonds at the same age as hitters, and just behind Mays and just ahead of Bonds in overall value. Through his age 31 season, Trout's OPS+ was 173; Bonds was 161; Mays was 159. In overall value through age 31, Mays had 87.4 WAR; Trout had 85.2; Bonds had  83.6.  Trout hasn't provided as much value because he simply hasn't been able to stay on the field these last few years. If he somehow discovers the Secret of Good Health, and is able to start playing - oh, let's not get too carried away, let's settle for 140 games a season - he very clearly has a place in this argument.

Incidentally all three - Trout, Mays, Bonds - are significantly behind Mickey Mantle at the same age. The Mick did not age very well, but I think there was definitely a moment, for the first time since Babe Ruth was in his prime, when the world's greatest living ball player was an active player. Only to be overtaken by another active player.

Pitchers are a different breed, of course. I'm pretty comfortable with Walter Johnson as the greatest living pitcher from about 1915 until his death in 1946. This is partially because it's so difficult to know how Satchel Paige would have done had the playing field been level, although we can be certain it would have been pretty damn good. After Johnson was gone, Lefty Grove seems the obvious successor until his death in 1975. After Grove? Well, it's probably Tom Seaver, who's only been gone these last few years. So I think the argument now, for greatest living pitcher, comes down to a couple of very different right-handers from Texas, and Nolan Ryan definitely isn't one of them. I'm thinking, of course, of Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux.

Pitchers' careers generally don't unfold in as predictable a fashion as those of hitters. But Roger Clemens posted the best ERA+ of his career at age 42, which seems a tad unusual. You may be aware that Warren Spahn went 23-7, 2.60 in 1963 when he was 42, but Spahn's work in 1963 was nowhere near the level of his best seasons. And Spahn had roughly ten other seasons - most of them in his dotage as a player - that were more or less interchangeable with what he did when he was 42.

Through age 33, Clemens was 192-111, 3.06 in 382 starts, ERA+ of 144. Maddux was 221-126, 2.81 in 432 starts, ERA+ of - wait for it - 144.

The totality of Clemens' career clearly surpasses Maddux, but that's entirely because of the difference in their performance after age 34. Pitchers do age in different and unpredictable ways. But there's just something slightly fishy about Clemens in Toronto, and something very fishy about Clemens in Houston. If the greatest living baseball player isn't Barry Bonds, I want to say it's Greg Maddux.

But it's probably Barry.