Blue Jays 2023 Top Prospects: 30 - 21

Tuesday, January 09 2024 @ 07:00 AM EST

Welcome to the Blue Jays top 30 list for another year. It was a quiet year on the farm which is not always a good thing. Among the prospects, just one member of last year's top 30 was traded, that being Sem Robberse. Just one graduated, Davis Schneider. That leaves 28 players from last year's list and 18 of them are repeating on this list, which leaves room for twelve new prospects. As usual, there is always significant debate around the names on this list. While most of the top 20 would be on every top 30 list, there are a host of candidates for the bottom part of the list. Some are hanging on based on draft positioning or hopes of finding again the spark that made them stand out a few years ago. Then, on the other hand, are those who have had a good year in the lower minors where there are questions regarding their ability to repeat that at higher levels. Speaking of looking at previous years performances....

30. Adrian Pinto | 2B

Photo from @DunedinBlueJays

Adrian Pinto joined the Jays from Colorado in the Randal Grichuk trade. Pinto had an excellent 2021 season in the DSL for Colorado at age 18 which is presumably why the Jays picked him up in the trade. For 2022 Pinto, at age 19, was assigned to Dunedin where his performance was not as good as it had been in Colorado. The Jays sent Pinto back to Dunedin to start 2023.

Pinto has been injury-prone. In 2022 he only played in 47 games for Dunedin. In 2023, he played just 35 games, went on the IL in May, returned in late June, played seven games over 25 days, and then went back on the IL through the end of the season.

Comparing his time in Dunedin in 2023 to 2022, Pinto improved his batting average a little, from .242 to .260. He was up to .270 a few games before he went on the IL. He maintained a good eye, walking 23 times versus 25 strikeouts. Pinto is listed at 5'6" and 156 lbs. He doesn't show much power, he did have two home runs in 2022 but none in 2023.

Defensively Pinto primarily played at second base with a few games at shortstop and in centre field. Scouts believe he belongs at second base or in centre field. He is speedy as you would expect for someone who can play in centre field. He stole 12 bases this year in 35 games. He was caught four times.

Pinto could return to Dunedin in 2024 or possibly be sent to Vancouver. Hopefully we will see a stronger Pinto who can avoid injury. Pinto should still display his good eye at the plate but hopefully he will make harder contact to bump up his average and power.

29. Michael Dominguez | RHP

Photo from csplusbaseball.ca

The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Michael Dominguez in the 15th round of the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft on the recommendation of scout Brandon Bishoff and received a $197,500 signing bonus.

Born in Newport Beach, Virginia, Dominguez was drafted out of Jefferson High School in Tampa, Florida where he helped the Dragons win the state title in 2018. He then posted a 0.73 earned run average and struck out 88 batters in 44 innings.

Dominguez got his feet wet with the Gulf Coast League Blue Jays in 2019 and posted a 1.13 ERA in 24 innings with a 29-10 strikeout-walk total. After the 2020 minor league season was cancelled due to COVID, a UCL injury in his right elbow delayed his return to the mound until July of 2021. He was eventually promoted to Dunedin from the GCL and recorded a 3.34 ERA with a 31-12 K/BB total in 29-2/3 innings. He got even more work in the Arizona Fall League where he logged 21-2/3 innings and an ERA two points shy of 5.00.

The 2022 season was Dominguez's first full campaign which began in Dunedin. He struck out 66 batters against 19 walks over 51 innings but had an ERA of 5.82 at the time of his late July promotion to Vancouver. He rounded into form by yielding just four runs in his last three starts covering 15-2/3 innings and won Northwest League Pitcher of the Week honours with six shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Eugene Emeralds on the night of September 7, getting the win that clinched a playoff spot for the Canadians. Dominguez also held the host Emeralds to one run over five innings despite five walks as he struck out nine in Game 2 of the Northwest League final. He had a 3.64 ERA with a 38-12 K/BB total over 29-2/3 innings.

In 2023, Dominguez returned to YVR and it was a rough ride for him at first as his ERA was 20 points shy of 20.00 in April. He found his form in May with a 4.37 ERA and was even better in June and July with ERAs of 0.46 and 1.86 respectively.

On August 1, Dominguez got promoted to New Hampshire and turned in a solid first month in Double-A with a 3.27 ERA after giving up just four runs over 15-2/3 innings covering three starts. The month of September was not as kind as he had a 5.93 ERA over his final three starts.

A four-seam fastball in the mid-90 mile per hour range, a slider and a changeup is the pitch mix Dominguez works with. He told C's Plus Baseball in 2022 that Blue Jays pitching development coordinator pitcher Cory Popham showed him a grip to have better success with his breaking pitch. He also added the changeup is something he is still trying to improve.

Baseball America's Geoff Pontes says his top two pitches are his heater and breaker.

"His slider and four-seam do a great job of generating bad contact. Dominguez's slider has a .258 expected WOBA against it last year and drove similar results in season."

When runners do get on base, Dominguez moves to a deceptive delivery in which he raises his left leg and brings the glove behind his right hip before putting the leg down again, keeping his right leg fixed to the pitching rubber. He then raises his left leg and goes to the plate. Former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman would also attempt a smilier type of deception and Dominguez says Stroman is someone he would like to emulate.

The big focus for the 5-foot-10, 175-pound righthander is to limit the amount of walks. His walk rate percentage with Vancouver went up over seven percent from 2022 and it only dipped to just over 15 percent with New Hampshire. His strikeout rate was n the 28-30 percent range over 2022 and 2023.

The 2024 address for Dominguez figures to be a return to Manchester, New Hampshire before a possible trip to Triple-A Buffalo later in the year. He turns 24 on August 17.

28. Lazaro Estrada | RHP

Photo from @leam2626 Instagram

Lazaro Estrada is a 24-year-old Cuban. He was signed at age 18 and has pitched in the Blue Jays system since 2018. Estrada was a starting pitcher in 2018 and 2019 but he was injured in both 2021 and 2022, pitching around 20 innings in each of those seasons. Likely because of the injuries Estrada pitched out of the bullpen in Dunedin from April through June. He moved into a starting role on July 4th and stayed as a starter through the rest of the season.

As a reliever, Estrada threw 39 innings with a 1.19 WHIP and 58 K's for a 13.3 K/9. As a starter, he threw 37 innings with a 0.92 WHIP and 45 strikeouts for a 10.9 K/9. Estrada's breaking ball has a high spin rate which is a predictor of its ability to be successful at the major league level. However, the breaking ball spin rate was down in 2023 from over 3000 in 2022 to 2700 in 2023.

Estrada's fastball averages 93 mph and he can touch 94. He mainly throws the fastball and the slider with an occasional changeup thrown in. The two-pitch profile suggests a future bullpen role unless he can refine the change-up and use it more. FanGraphs believes the slider wasn't as good in 2023 compared to 2022 but the numbers on the field were still excellent.

Estrada's move through the system has been delayed by injuries. However, he will be 25 in 2024 and should be Rule 5 eligible. Estrada should be in Vancouver's starting rotation and the Jays could push him to New Hampshire during the season to see if he deserves a 40-man roster spot.

27. Tucker Toman | 3B

Photo from @DunedinBlueJays

Tucker Toman was drafted in the second supplemental round of the 2022 draft. He was pick number 77 taken out of a high school in South Carolina. Toman's father is a college baseball coach so Toman "knows the game". Toman is listed as 5'11" and 190 pounds and is a switch-hitter.

When drafted Toman was described as a bat-first prospect. Unfortunately, Toman's bat has not lived up to his draft position. In the field he was drafted as a shortstop and played short and third in his first season. In 2023 he played most often at third base with more than double the amount of time he spent at shortstop.

Toman hit well for an 18-year-old in his first season in the FCL. He had a .289 average and a .759 OPS. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin for 2023. Toman got off to a reasonable start, hitting .250 in April. But it was all downhill from there, leading to him hitting under .200 in both August and September. Toman struck out at a high clip throughout the season. There was very little to pick out as a positive in his 2023 season, perhaps his walk rate. Toman hit marginally better from the right side, but even that wasn't enough to get excited about. So why is he still a prospect? There is his draft position which does count for something. There is also his age, he played 2023 as a 19-year-old. Young players can get into a rut that is very difficult to get out of without a break. The off-season is now that break to see if he can reset himself. 2024 is a make-or-break year for Toman.

Toman will likely return to Dunedin to start 2024. He will need to hit the ground running or risk losing playing time to more promising prospects.

26. Dasan Brown | CF

Photo from csplusbaseball.ca

Dasan Brown had an uneven 2023 playing in his first full season on Canadian soil. The Blue Jays third-round pick in 2019 out of Abbey Park High School finished the 2022 season strong with the Vancouver Canadians after being promoted from Dunedin in late July. His first home run in Vancouver against Eugene in September helped the C's clinch a second-half playoff berth. He added three more homers in the postseason in Eugene's three-game sweep of the Northwest League final.

After slashing .283/.383/.420 between the Florida Complex League, Dunedin and Vancouver, the right-handed-hitting Brown did not come close to approaching those numbers in 2023. Before returning to Vancouver, he represented his country at the World Baseball Classic in which he appeared in two games and went 0-for-1 and scored a run. Brown endured a miserable April by hitting .138 and a .233 May only brought his overall BA to .196. His bat heated up in June by slashing .282/.352/.474 but he cooled off to a .241 July, a .203 August and a .105 September.

Brown's walk rate was nearly nine percent, just slightly down from 2022 but he still struck out 25 percent of the time though that was a slight improvement from his 28 percent whiff rate from 2022.

The BABIP gods were not in his favour in 2023 with a .286 mark after extremely high marks of .385 with Dunedin and .430 with Vancouver. His stolen base success rate checked in at just over 70 percent after going 11-for-14 in that department with the C's in 2022.

Though he hit just .100 in the postseason, he did post an OBP of. 400 as the C's defeated Everett to the Northwest League championship.

Brown would earn another championship ring as he played for the Surprise Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League. He slashed .274/.342/.397 with four stolen bases in five attempts. He had four doubles, one triple and one homer but over 30 percent of his at-bats ended with strike three.

The 5-foot-11, 185-pound Brown continues to show his defensive chops in center field thanks to his elite speed which is considered plus-plus if not top-of-the-scale with Baseball America listing him as the best athlete in the Blue Jays system.

BA's Geoff Pontes had this to say about Brown in a recent team prospects chat.

"He needs to hit. Really any type of offensive consistency would make him a prospect. The defense is great and he has so many tools. I just don't think he's going to hit."

Brown will more than likely head up to Double-A New Hampshire to begin 2024. He will celebrate his 23rd birthday on September 25.

25. CJ Van Eyk | RHP

Photo from @MLB.com

CJ Van Eyk was a second-round pick in 2020 and had an up-and-down 2021 pitching for Vancouver. With inconsistencies in his delivery, he varied from outstanding to bad. In one game he would strike out a lot of hitters and in the next, he would walk too many hitters. With his lengthy absence from the mound, and with the pitching lab in Dunedin, he has had time to work on his delivery.

Van Eyk had Tommy John surgery in September 2021 and missed all of 2022 and significant parts of 2023. He was on rehab until August. He did make two rehab appearances for Dunedin in May but then didn't appear again for almost a month. He pitched once in June then went back on rehab for another seven weeks. He obviously had a tough time trying to get back to feeling comfortable on the mound. Starting July 29th Van Eyk made two starts in the FCL followed by three for Dunedin before being formally activated at the end of August and making four starts in New Hampshire. He then went to the fall league where he pitched well and pitched in both the All-Star Game and the AFL final.

Van Eyk throws a four-seam fastball along with a curveball, a changeup and a slider. At the end of the season, and in the AFL, Van Eyk started throwing a sinker which is another pitch he can use, mainly against righties. Since he was drafted, Van Eyk's downfall has been the consistency of his delivery leading to too many walks. In 2021 he walked almost 4.5 hitters per nine. In total, Van Eyk improved his control in 2023 but in a small sample in NH, we walked six in 12 innings. He also walked too many hitters in the Arizona Fall League. But offsetting the walks is Van Eyk's ability to get a strikeout when he needs it. To do it, his big weapon is his curveball which is his plus pitch.

Van Eyk's 2023 was an incomplete season, most of which was him trying to feel right on the mound. Van Eyk will return to New Hampshire in 2024. He needs to find consistency in his delivery to cut down on the walks, but, if he can't, he could be a good relief pitcher candidate who can rely on his plus off-speed pitches to get batters out in short stints.

24. Alex De Jesús | SS/3B

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Alex De Jesús was a free-agent signing of the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 3, 2018 and received a $500,000 signing bonus. He started his pro career in the Dominican Summer League and batted .296 in 13 games before getting promoted to the Arizona League. A .276/.326/.374 batting line with 11 extra-base hits and 25 runs batted in over 44 games led to Baseball America rating him as the Arizona League's 11th-best prospect.

After the 2020 season was cancelled due to COVID, De Jesús began 2021 with the Rancho Cucamonga Earthquakes. According to Baseball America, he "got into bad swing habits during the coronavirus shutdown and hit .210 with a 38% strikeout rate the first two months of the 2021 season at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga, but after he made adjustments to get back to his former swing, he hit .314/.440/.490 the rest of the year." De Jesús rebounded to hit .268/.386/.447 with 38 extra-base knocks and 73 RBI in 97 games.

In 2022, De Jesús returned to the Ranch before an OPS of .881 in 37 games led to a promotion to Great Lakes. The highlight of his season was hitting for the cycle and had a .282/.376/.421 line with 17 extra-base hits in 50 games with the Loons. Another change of address came on August 2 when the Los Angeles Dodgers traded De Jesús and pitcher Mitch White to the Toronto Blue Jays for pitchers Nick Frasso and lefthander Moises Brito.

A check-in at Dunedin was De Jesús' first order of business as he played two games at the Florida Complex League, hitting his first home run with his new organization versus the FCL Phillies on August 8. He was promoted to Vancouver where he hit just .211 in two dozen games with Vancouver. He had a much better postseason with a .364 BA against Eugene in the Northwest League final with a hit in all three games, including two hits and two RBI in Game 3.

In 2023, De Jesús returned to Vancouver and batted just .180 in April but he ended the month in style with a two-run, 10th-inning home run to walk off Eugene on April 30. After hitting .180 in April and .238 in May, De Jesús turned in a scorching month of June with a 316/.421/.582 line. His best game was in Hillsboro on July 4 when he hit for the cycle for the second time in his career. Unfortunately, De Jesús was placed on the injured list after being under the weather in late July and early September, causing him to miss a good part of August and after a brief return, he missed the rest of the regular season and the playoffs. It was hoped he would be able to return for the postseason but he was limited to the role of spectator for the celebration of Vancouver's Northwest League championship at Nat Bailey Stadium.

The power in De Jesús' righthanded bat emerged in 2023 with an isolated slugging mark of .218, well past his High-A marks in a similar number of plate appearances between Great Lakes and Vancouver in 2022. He still strikes out a lot as he whiffed 26.5 percent of the time but that was down from his 2022 rate of nearly 30 percent at the High-A level. His walk rate of 11.6 percent remained fairly steady from 2022.

De Jesús' batting average on balls in play was a career-low .313 and his line drive rate was just below 20 percent for the first time in his career according to FanGraphs, a decrease from the low-to-mid 20s rate in 2022.

In an interview with C's Plus Baseball last summer, De Jesús said he does not get bogged down in the details in his approach at the plate.

"I try to keep it as simple as possible. Simple is better for me. Whenever I'm up there, I'm just trying to see the ball and hit the ball."

The 6-foot-1, 170-pound De Jesús can play short and third base but it was the hot corner where he made 42 of his 79 defensive starts. He showcases a plus arm but he committed 20 errors last season, 10 at each position.

Had De Jesús remained healthy, he may have ended 2023 at Double-A New Hampshire. Manchester should be where he ends up to begin 2024. He will be 22 years old on March 22.

23. TJ Brock | RHP

Photo from csplusbaseball.ca

TJ Brock was the Blue Jays sixth-round selection in the 2022 draft although he signed an under-slot deal. A right-hander with a big arm. Brock was a reliever, and a closer, in college and has stayed as a reliever with the Blue Jays. The short version of this report is that Brock has a 100mph fastball and a slider and strikes out a lot of hitters. He throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball. Brock's father was a minor leaguer too, playing in the Mariners system.

After being drafted Brock threw 12 innings in 2022, mostly in Vancouver. He returned to Vancouver to start 2023 and pitched in 15 games there. His 1.77 ERA and his 13.7 K/9 earned him a promotion to New Hampshire. He threw 32 innings there and struck out 56 hitters for a K/9 of 15.6. His K/9 for the season put him behind just two Blue Jay pitchers, Ricky Tiedemann and Connor Cooke. Brock was number one in another stat, swinging strike percentage. Brock's 21.9% swinging strike percentage was way ahead of the second place Cooke (16.8%) among full-season players. So the numbers show that Brock has swing-and-miss stuff.

Now for the not-so-good part. Brock's walk rate per nine is just under 4, not great. It was a bit better than 2022 which is encouraging but he needs to get it down a bit further. Brock also allowed 10.6 hits per nine innings in NH. That is another number that is too high. Major league hitters can hit a 100 mph fastball if it is not in the right spot. AA hitters can do that too. Brock needs to work on his command of his pitches to get ready to succeed at the major league level.

There was one weird stat for Brock. In 32 appearances for NH, he allowed 24 earned runs. In his first appearance of the month in June, July and August, Brock gave up 11 earned runs. In days that were not his first appearance of the month, Brock gave up 13 runs. So 11 runs in 3 appearances, 13 runs in 29 appearances. I am sure it's just a coincidence.

The AAA bullpen could be crowded so Brock could return to NH to start 2024. If the Buffalo bullpen is not full Brock should get a shot at AAA. Every reliever in the Buffalo pen would have a shot at being called up in 2024.

22. Jace Bohrofen | LF

Photo from Instagram @jacebohrofen

Jace Bohrofen was selected in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. He spent a week in the FCL before being promoted to Dunedin on August 9th.

Bohrofen attended college at Arkansas, a major conference team. The pre-draft report from Baseball America noted that Bohrofen had struggled in 2022 with contact issues and a high strikeout rate. He hit the ground running in 2023. He started the college season red-hot but cooled a little as the season progressed. The report also noted that Bohrofen had a pull-oriented approach that left him vulnerable to breaking balls and changeups. Basically they felt he was a dead-pull fastball hitter.

Bohrofen hit .267 in his short time in the FCL but as a player from a major US conference, his assignment should be to Dunedin. After a brief acclimation period in the FCL he was indeed promoted to Dunedin. He homered in his first game, in his second game, and his third. He didn't homer in game four but hit two in game five. Five games, five home runs. But word gets out quickly. He probably didn't see many inside fastballs for the rest of the season and he hit just one home run in his remaining 12 games.

So let's compare the pre-draft report on Jace to his start with the Jays. Pull-oriented fastball hitter, looks like it, his 0.4 GB/FB ratio was one of the lowest in the Jays system. Contact issues, yes, a 23% strikeout rate in Dunedin. On the positive side he walked a lot, 15 walks vs 18 K's in Dunedin.

Bohrofen obviously can hit dingers. But he also could be vulnerable to better pitchers. How will he and the Jays work together to adjust his swing and approach to make him able to be successful against better pitchers?

Bohrofen probably should go to Vancouver to start 2024, as college players have done before him. He could stay in Dunedin if the Jays are adjusting his swing to be near the hitting lab.

21. Dahian Santos | RHP

Photo from csplusbaseball.ca

Dahian Santos did not quite have the breakthrough season that prospect observers expected in 2023. The Venezuelan—who signed with Toronto as a 16-year-old on July 2, 2019, for $150,000—had decent stats on the surface in his return engagement with Vancouver.

Santos had to wait until 2021 to make his professional debut which came on July 1 when he pitched five shutout innings of two-hit ball and struck out six for the Florida Complex League Blue Jays against the FCL Tigers West. Santos posted a 4.58 ERA over 35-1/3 innings with a 35-12 strikeout-walk ratio.

After making a cameo appearance with Dunedin in 2021, he was back with the D-Jays in 2022 and really made his mark in May by winning the Florida State League Pitcher of the Month award with a 2-1 record with a 0.83 ERA and struck out 43 batters against 11 free passes in 21-2/3 innings.

Santos was promoted to Vancouver after going 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA with Dunedin in August. He overcame two rough starts with two better ones in Vancouver and finished with a K rate of nearly 15 batters per nine innings.

Rated as having the best slider in the Blue Jays after the season by Baseball America, Santos returned to Vancouver for 2023. He finished April with a 5.56 ERA but had a much better May with a 2.65 mark, punctuated by winning Northwest League Pitcher of the Week honours in the latter part of May thanks to five shutout innings at Spokane on May 27.

Santos talked to C's Plus Baseball and credited his slider for that good performance.

"What I like to do is focus on my slider and how it works. The Blue Jays switched some things on the grip before spring training in 2022. I got used to that and got comfortable using that. It started feeling better and I have been continuing using that, trying that. It works better, it looks better. It has been my best pitch since."

The month of June saw Santos post a 4.20 ERA in June but he ended the month with four shutout innings at Eugene on June 24. He was in line for the win but was pulled after 65 pitches. Santos won on Canada Day for the second time in his career but this time it was in Canada as he gave up just an unearned run and struck out five against Spokane at Nat Bailey Stadium. That was the last time Santos would climb the hill as he was sidelined with a forearm injury.

Though he continued to average over a strikeout an inning in 2023, Santos did not pile up the same rate of whiffs in Dunedin the year before. His ERA was solid but if you go by FIP and xFIP, his marks of 4.78 and 5.03 suggest he was a little lucky along with a career-low BABIP of 2.23.

Along with the aforementioned slider, Santos broke down his pitch mix with C's Plus Baseball.

"The fastball, I grip it like a four-seam fastball. I also throw a little bit like a sinker. My changeup, I like to throw it a little bit slower. It's a little bit different. The changeup goes down and it goes sideways like another sinker."

Employing a low-slot arm delivery, Santos' fastball is in the low-90s range, touching 94 miles per hour and is said to be about average or 50 on the 20-80 scouting scale with a below-average to fringe-average changeup.

If Santos can sharpen up his pitches and add weight to his 5-foot-11, 160-pound frame, he may find his way into a major league rotation. His 2024 starting point may be Double-A New Hampshire but he could be back with Vancouver. He will celebrate his 21st birthday on February 26.

Join us tomorrow for more of the Blue Jays Top 30 prospects.

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