Tampa Bay at Toronto, September 29-October 1

Friday, September 29 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Do I really want to talk about the Tampa Bay Rays? Especially when the Jays probably have to play them again in a couple of days?

No I don't. Let's talk about the offensive production of the various AL teams. Let's look at multiple columns of densely packed numbers, many of them running to multiple decimal points. We're baseball fans! This is what we do!

It's Data Table Time! This is through Thursday's games:

HITTING      PA    AB    R    H    2B   3B   HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
                                                                    
Houston      3130  2789  451  750  138  10  128  441  53  20  270  630  .269  .340  .463    .803
Baltimore    3212  2877  445  745  172  14   97  431  59  13  277  735  .259  .326  .430    .756
Tampa Bay    3059  2749  418  722  130  11  118  403  69  22  243  680  .263  .329  .447    .776
Texas        3066  2733  390  702  156  12   88  369  40  10  279  687  .257  .329  .419    .748
Toronto      3202  2875  404  757  152  11  103  378  45  18  275  669  .263  .334  .431    .766
Seattle      3214  2844  401  707  147   7  117  386  71  18  288  824  .249  .328  .429    .756
Minnesota    3058  2710  363  639  113   8  108  347  46   8  284  806  .236  .317  .403    .720
Los Angeles  3161  2819  375  718  131  12  107  363  30  21  259  756  .255  .325  .424    .748
Boston       2960  2671  353  642  152   5   91  342  50  13  232  700  .240  .307  .403    .710
Cleveland    3015  2734  346  687  137  14   67  325  74  13  226  560  .251  .312  .385    .697
New York     2932  2604  333  595  107   8   95  317  47  12  276  725  .229  .307  .385    .692
Chicago      3028  2789  333  658  137   9   88  321  52   9  189  730  .236  .290  .386    .676
Detroit      3060  2769  330  635  123  14   87  319  48  16  247  751  .229  .296  .378    .674
Oakland      2886  2582  302  599  113   7   89  289  64  13  228  707  .232  .304  .385    .689
Kansas City  2891  2647  283  600  122  21   74  271  84  25  182  774  .227  .283  .373    .655

I would have ranked the teams by Runs Scored, seeing as how that's why teams send players up to hit in the first place. But not everyone has played the same number of games, so I did an off-camera calculation of the runs scored per game and.... wait a gosh darn minute! How are the Blue Jays in fifth place? Those aren't the Blue Jays we've been watching all year! What is this sorcery? What have you done? What are you leaving out?

I'm leaving out everybody's home games, naturally. It turns out that when you get everyone on neutral ground, the Blue Jays offense isn't chopped liver after all. Even with all the double plays, and the issues with runners in scoring positions, it's one of the league's better offenses. They're in a tight little knot with Seattle and Texas, not as potent as the league's three offensive powerhouses - Houston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay - but right behind them.

But then everybody goes home, and the story changes. Considerably.

HITTING        PA    AB   R    H    2B  3B   HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
                                                                    
Texas        3096  2737  483  749  168   5  143  468  39   9  303  683  .274  .349  .495   .844
Tampa Bay    2975  2644  419  673  142  13  107  402  89  19  261  716  .255  .332  .440   .771
Boston       3068  2756  408  769  184  13   90  384  53  12  244  630  .279  .344  .453   .797
Minnesota    2988  2632  391  658  146  15  118  377  40  10  289  808  .250  .333  .451   .784
Kansas City  2910  2611  371  677  130  21   82  358  75  19  219  578  .259  .322  .419   .741
Baltimore    2786  2502  354  638  132  14   85  342  53  11  227  598  .255  .320  .421   .741
Houston      3016  2678  365  668  137  10   92  349  52  12  274  584  .249  .325  .411   .736
Los Angeles  2875  2576  349  606  114  14  119  333  41  10  248  746  .235  .308  .429   .737
Seattle      2851  2531  344  600  133   5   88  329  46  12  251  743  .237  .317  .398   .715
Toronto      2847  2534  312  618  131   6   77  301  52  16  261  600  .244  .319  .392   .711
New York     2891  2581  328  578  106   6  123  321  51  18  271  662  .224  .301  .413   .714
Detroit      2825  2542  298  609  113  10   71  283  33   7  236  690  .240  .309  .376   .684
Chicago      2806  2578  301  626  125   4   78  289  33  13  178  651  .243  .296  .385   .681
Cleveland    2965  2674  307  666  151  15   54  289  72  22  235  559  .249  .315  .377   .692
Oakland      2935  2600  270  562  109  14   78  262  83  18  256  755  .216  .294  .359   .653

Scoring 4.99 runs per game on the road and just 4.05 at home? That's one large Home-Road split.

It's not just the Jays, of course. Baltimore loses almost the same amount of offense at Camden Yards (5.49 to 4.60), and we're all quite familiar with how the changes at Camden Yards have made that a much tougher home run park these last few years. And no team's hitting seems to suffer more than the Astros when they play at Enron Memorial - their Runs/Game practically plummets, from 5.78 per game to 4.51. Which is still pretty decent.

It's Texas and Kansas City (!) who've been getting the huge boost from their home parks, at least in 2023.

Well, these are likely just Park Effect, right? We know about Park Effects. So maybe the newly renovated Rogers Centre actually suppresses offense, or at least it has in 2023. Good to know.

And when we look at the pitching, we'll surely find that the Jays have reduced the opposition's scoring to a similar degree. We'll probably find that the pitching staffs in Houston and Baltimore are doing likewise. After all - if the home field suppresses offense, the team should be allowing fewer runs as well. That's just logic, which was allegedly invented by the Greeks thousands of years ago.

Ah, if only life were so simple! For one thing, a single season's games (or two seasons, in the case of Camden Yards) give us much too small a sample to provide a reliable sense of a ballpark's impact on scoring. I can say with confidence that the original Yankee Stadium of Ruth, DiMaggio, and Mantle was one of the toughest places to score runs in the history of the game. There's 50 years and almost 4,000 games that say so. But in just 81 games, weird things can happen. And probably have.

So let's see how the various AL teams have done at preventing the opposition from scoring in neutral parks

PITCHING        W    L    ERA      IP       H    R    ER   HR   BB   SO   BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
                                                            
Tampa Bay      44   34    3.86    678     605   310  291   78  218  677   .236  .302  .381  .684
Minnesota      38   40    3.91    679     611   312  295   92  207  724   .238  .302  .396  .697
Houston        48   30    3.74    683.1   592   315  284   99  263  672   .234  .310  .404  .714
Detroit        41   40    4.00    701.1   642   335  312   88  220  684   .241  .304  .395  .698
New York       39   38    3.91    667.2   568   320  290   78  255  657   .227  .306  .380  .686
Texas          39   38    4.04    668.2   616   320  300   80  230  610   .245  .313  .391  .703
Toronto        46   35    3.90    706.2   687   341  306   99  219  736   .252  .312  .415  .728
Baltimore      52   29    3.98    718.2   652   346  318   91  246  732   .240  .311  .404  .715
Seattle        43   38    4.07    705.1   687   346  319   91  197  658   .253  .309  .415  .724
Cleveland      33   45    4.25    675     656   345  319   96  252  591   .253  .323  .419  .742
Boston         37   40    4.43    666     644   354  328  108  213  668   .251  .317  .436  .753
Chicago        30   51    5.06    689.2   669   415  388  106  321  678   .252  .340  .439  .779
Los Angeles    35   46    4.83    692.2   681   417  372  106  322  671   .254  .341  .439  .780
Kansas City    23   56    5.32    658     660   413  389  105  241  591   .261  .329  .444  .773
Oakland        22   55    6.22    642.2   718   466  444  111  331  583   .282  .372  .489  .861

.
And here's what happens when they go home

PITCHING        W    L    ERA      IP      H     R   ER    HR   BB   SO   BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
                                                            
Seattle        42   35    3.50    708     595   305  275   91  207  755   .225  .286  .377  .663
Toronto        41   36    3.60    708     595   307  283   94  258  755   .227  .302  .386  .688
Tampa Bay      53   28    3.80    737     618   331  311   94  209  806   .223  .284  .384  .668
Cleveland      42   39    3.67    744     665   334  303   74  268  705   .238  .308  .378  .686
Minnesota      47   33    3.83    735     651   330  313   93  224  785   .235  .298  .398  .696
Baltimore      47   30    3.95    699     656   321  307   85  217  657   .247  .307  .392  .699
New York       42   39    3.92    739     654   353  322  108  243  747   .235  .305  .400  .705
Houston        39   42    4.25    735     705   381  347  102  261  770   .251  .322  .419  .741
Texas          50   31    4.54    734     689   383  370  113  252  705   .248  .315  .423  .738
Boston         39   42    4.73    730     756   414  384   99  276  718   .265  .337  .440  .777
Los Angeles    36   42    4.49    712     691   401  355  100  303  752   .252  .334  .408  .742
Detroit        33   43    4.63    696     642   393  358   95  244  648   .242  .309  .407  .716
Kansas City    31   47    5.00    708     724   419  393   97  292  635   .264  .341  .440  .781
Chicago        30   47    4.83    704     675   414  378  108  313  755   .249  .335  .416  .751
Oakland        26   55    4.92    743     720   442  406   97  346  688   .254  .340  .424  .764

On the one hand, the Jays run prevention certainly does improve at the Rogers Centre - seventh best in the league is kind of middle of the pack, but second best is pretty good. And yet... while 3.99 runs per game is certainly better than 4.21, it obviously doesn't match the impact the home field appears to have on the team's hitters. Something is out of kilter. Gone askew on the treadle, perhaps.

And because it's just one season and the sample is so very small, there are even stranger things than the 2023 Blue Jays to contemplate. You remember how no team loses more scoring when they go home than the Houston Astros, who score 5.78 runs per game on the road but just 4.51 runs at home? The Astros pitchers have not had that type of success in keeping the other team from scoring - Houston gives up quite a few more runs at home (4.70) than they do on the road (4.04), which makes no sense whatsoever.

Similarly, Detroit's hitters have done just a little bit better on the road. Their pitchers, however, have been much more effective when they get away from Comerica, where they have generally been beaten senseless. Only Kansas City and Oakland give up more runs at home. Just as no team's offense has a bigger Home/Road split than the Astros, no team's defense has a bigger split than the Tigers.

If it can't be explained by a Park Effect having a clear and obvious impact on both sides of the ball, we'd better get into the weeds and look at the individuals. So let's begin with the pitching this time, the better to see that for most of them it hasn't made very much difference whether they're at home or not:

                W    L    ERA     IP       H     R    ER   HR    BB   SO    BAVG    OBP    SLG     OPS
                                                            
Mayza           2    1    1.24    29      27     5     4    1    8    28    .252   .304   .327    .631
Romano          3    4    3.30    30      26    12    11    2   12    39    .230   .315   .327    .642
Swanson         1    1    2.84    31.2    29    10    10    4    8    36    .244   .291   .387    .678
Gausman         7    5    3.27    85.1    79    35    31    9   23   106    .239   .290   .393    .683
Manoah          3    4    4.33    52      45    29    25    6   26    48    .227   .329   .369    .698
Ryu             1    1    3.47    23.1    20    11     9    5    8    19    .222   .293   .411    .704
Berrios         5    6    3.97    99.2    91    46    44   13   29    91    .243   .306   .404    .709
Richards        1    1    6.12    32.1    30    23    22    6   18    45    .238   .336   .429    .764
Kikuchi         5    3    3.77    88.1    98    41    37   13   21    94    .281   .325   .444    .769
Garcia          3    1    5.63    32      40    22    20    5    5    37    .301   .345   .474    .819
Bassitt         8    4    4.50    90     100    53    45   19   26    81    .277   .327   .507    .834
Pearson         3    2    7.64    17.2    23    16    15    3    7    17    .311   .369   .487    .856

And here's what's happened at Dome Sweet Dome.

                W    L    ERA     IP       H     R    ER   HR   BB    SO    BAVG    OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                            
Bassitt         7    4    3.08   102.1    71    35    35    9   32    93    .197   .279   .314    .593
Swanson         3    1    3.27    33      21    12    12    4   12    38    .184   .262   .333    .595
Pearson         2    0    2.88    25      13     9     8    4   11    26    .153   .265   .341    .607
Mayza           1    0    1.61    22.1    20     4     4    0    7    22    .241   .297   .313    .610
Garcia          0    3    2.84    31.2    27    13    10    3   10    40    .231   .300   .350    .650
Romano          2    3    2.57    28      21     8     8    4   12    33    .204   .287   .369    .656
Gausman         5    4    3.07    99.2    84    37    34   10   32   131    .228   .292   .366    .658
Berrios         6    6    3.30    90      82    36    33   12   23    93    .239   .294   .391    .685
Kikuchi         5    3    3.87    74.1    62    34    32   13   25    83    .222   .291   .394    .685
Richards        1    0    3.58    37.2    30    15    15    6   16    58    .216   .299   .396    .695
Ryu             2    2    3.16    25.2    26    12     9    4    6    18    .260   .299   .460    .759
Manoah          0    5    8.15    35.1    48    32    32    9   33    31    .324   .460   .581   1.041

The relievers have generally worked so few innings that one lousy game can have a pretty big impact. Richards, Garcia, and Pearson all have much better numbers at home, but I wouldn't want to read too much into it. And that impact is pretty much cancelled out by the work of Alek Manoah, who was mediocre on the road but fifty shades of awful at home. It's the four men who have been in the rotation all season - Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Kikuchi - that I would prefer to focus on. And three of them - Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi - have hardly any Home/Road split at all. Chris Bassitt is the exception - it seems that he absolutely loves pitching in the Rogers Centre. (As all these numbers are through Wednesday's games, it doesn't even include his work against the Yankees last night (which left him with a home record of 8-4, 2.86). The difference between Bassitt's home and road performance, by itself, pretty much accounts for the difference in the Jays pitching splits.

So we really need to look at the hitters. In neutral parks, this is what happens:

               G     PA    AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR   RBI  SB  CS   BB   SO    BAVG    OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                                        
Schneider     16     68    54   10   15    3   1    4    11   0   0   11   21    .278   .427   .593   1.019
Belt          48    198   166   29   41   10   0   11    26   0   0   31   72    .247   .364   .506    .870
Bichette      66    302   289   41   94   15   2   11    39   3   2   11   60    .325   .354   .505    .860
Guerrero      77    346   308   39   89   15   0   16    48   2   1   30   44    .289   .364   .494    .858
Chapman       74    314   276   39   70   21   1    9    29   3   2   33   93    .254   .344   .435    .779
Kiermaier     68    220   206   33   59   12   2    5    23   6   1   12   36    .286   .327   .437    .764
Varsho        80    308   279   36   71   14   2   12    38  10   3   24   70    .255   .313   .448    .761
Merrifield    75    311   288   33   83   16   0    7    40  11   6   19   56    .288   .331   .417    .748
Springer      75    341   308   51   82   14   1   10    39   8   3   28   59    .266   .329   .416    .745
Jansen        47    159   145   18   31    9   0    9    27   0   0   10   38    .214   .283   .462    .745
Biggio        59    183   160   28   34    7   0    5    16   2   0   19   49    .213   .312   .350    .662
Espinal       44    109    97   14   22    6   0    1     9   0   0    9   19    .227   .306   .320    .625
Kirk          63    215   186   15   40    8   0    1    18   0   0   25   21    .215   .321   .274    .595

And then they come home.

               G     PA    AB   R    H    2B  3B   HR  RBI   SB  CS   BB   SO    BAVG    OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                                        
Schneider     17     67    57   11   15    7   0    4    9    1   0    9   20    .263   .373   .597   .970
Jansen        39    142   123   20   30    6   0    8    26   0   0   13   24    .244   .345   .488   .833
Belt          51    191   159   21   41   13   0    5    12   0   0   30   64    .258   .377   .434   .811
Kirk          57    193   172   17   48    8   0    6    22   0   0   17   24    .279   .347   .430   .777
Biggio        48    136   115   21   28    5   0    4    20   3   2   17   37    .244   .346   .391   .737
Bichette      65    280   265   23   73   13   0    9    32   1   1   14   52    .276   .311   .426   .737
Kiermaier     58    175   153   24   36    8   4    3    12   7   0   16   47    .235   .316   .399   .715
Springer      76    327   291   35   71    9   0   11    32  12   2   31   63    .244   .322   .388   .710
Guerrero      76    321   281   36   66   13   0   10    46   3   2   35   51    .235   .321   .388   .709
Chapman       63    254   221   25   49   18   1    6    23   1   0   28   70    .222   .315   .394   .709
Espinal       46    140   128   15   34    8   0    1    16   2   1    9   15    .266   .317   .352   .668
Merrifield    68    273   251   32   66   11   0    4    27  15   4   17   44    .263   .311   .355   .666
Varsho        74    255   231   26   41    9   1    6    18   6   4   20   61    .178   .252   .303   .555

Yeah, that's not great. Just four of the thirteen most used hitters have been better at home and none of them, alas, are full time players. It's the two catchers, Biggio and Espinal. Meanwhile five of the six players with the most Plate Appearances at the Dome - Guerrero, Bichette, Merrifield, Chapman, Varsho - are also, by unhappy coincidence the five players whose production has fallen off the most at home. Springer is the exception, although even he - along with Belt and Kiermaier - has been better away from home.

I can't explain it. I don't think it's a Park Effect (although it will be years before we can know for sure!) - I think it's mostly just One of Those Things that happens. But while Varsho has no history here beyond his abysmal performance hitting at home this season, the other four do. And Guerrero and Bichette have both hit better in road games than in Toronto over their careers. Chapman and Merrifield, both unlikely to be around past this season, have both hit better elsewhere as well.

Well, baseball tonight.

Fri 29 Sep - Civale ()7-4, 3.43 vs Kikuchi (10-6, 3.82)

Sat 30 Sep - Littell (3-6, 3.68) vs Ryu (3-3, 3.31)

Sun 1 Oct - Bradley (5-8, 5.52) vs Gausman (12-9, 3.16)

We are, of course, hoping Gausman won't be needed on Sunday. But until we know for sure...

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