Past Drafts vs What Could Be

Friday, July 07 2023 @ 12:04 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Thought I'd dig into what has happened with past drafts vs the Jays picks this year. Just to help limit expectations of the Jays getting a Mike Trout (inner circle HOF) or John Olerud (immediate help) in it.

Lets see what the best cases ever are for the Jays top few picks and how the Jays have done when they had that pick before...

The 20th overall pick has produced 2 HOF level talents in Mike Mussina and CCSabathia (both 60+ WAR). Near HOF in Torii Hunter (50's WAR), and strong All-Stars in Bob Welch and Rick Rhoden (30+ WAR). The Jays only #20 pick was Chad Jenkins (1.4 WAR, drafted in 2009 by JPR), the Jays also lost a #20 pick for signing Dennis Lamp (used by White Sox on Tony Menendez -0.3 WAR lifetime). 62% of players drafted in this slot have reached the majors.
Pick #89 isn't as good but there is promise as the best there is Randy Johnson (over 100 WAR) but he didn't sign (Giants drafted him, later was drafted/signed by the Expos). Justin Morneau is the only other one over 20 WAR, with 2 in the 10's as well. The Jays twice drafted here getting Jeff Hearron (-0.2 WAR) and Billy Brown (didn't reach). Only 32% of players drafted in this slot have reached the majors.
Pick #121 John Valentin is the only guy over 4 WAR here (32.5) out of 58 players, just 31% reached.
Pick #157 Tom Gordon had 35 WAR, Larry Andersen 13.9, Brandon Guyer 5.8, rest under 1. 29% got a cup of coffee at least.

That covers round 1-5, Jays pick every 30 after that (#187, #217, etc.). From pick #121 (4th round) on it is a pure crapshoot it seems - a 1 in 50 shot at best each time at getting a useful player.

What are the Jays best by round?

Round 1: Roy Halladay (duh) with 64.2 WAR, Green & Carpenter both in the 30's, then 6 guys in the 20's.
Round 2: David Wells with 53.4 WAR, then Bo at 16.3 so far, with Derek Bell the only other 10+ guy.
Round 3: John Olerud 58.2 WAR, Jimmy Key 48.9, then a big drop to the 10-14 range for Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, etc.
Round 4: Casey Janssen 7.4 WAR - this is a slot that a new record could be set in you'd think, but the last to reach was Kevin Smith (-0.3 WAR) and sadly the best prospect is Nick Frasso (sent to LAD for Mitch White)
Round 5: Dave Stieb 56.4 WAR, Pat Hentgen 32.6, Michael Young 24.7 (curse you Gord Ash), Mike Timlin 19.0, Cavan Biggio 5.8 - yes he is the 5th best 5th rounder for the Jays ever, tied with Lane Thomas (137 OPS+_for Washington right now - Jays traded him for International Bonus Slot money in 2017)

So you get the idea, in 46 drafts the Jays have seen a few really good players drafted in the first 5 rounds, a HOF'er and a couple of near HOF'ers. But to do so you need luck and good scouting.

So how has our current GM done?

2016: Bo, Biggio, 8 others reached who did little (1.5 WAR for Zach Jackson, the rest are 0.4 or less each). Signed everyone in the first 12 rounds, 29 of 41 overall.
2017: Ryan Noda at 1.6 is the best so far, with Riley Adams at 1.1. The rest are 0.1 or less. Signed the first 16 picks, 30 of 40 overall.
2018: Vinny Capra at 0.1 is #1 in WAR so far, just 4 have reached but Adam Kloffenstein is very promising this year. Addison Barger has shown signs he could be good in spring training but has been hurt this year. Signed everyone in the first 20 rounds, 32 of 40 overall.
2019: Alek Manoah #1 easily at 7.8, only Spencer Horwitz has also reached (0.0 WAR). Signed the first 18 rounds, 30 of 40 overall.
2020: Just 5 picks, none have reached, all signed, Austin Martin got us Berrios and now has a 330 OPS in AAA (16 PA). Frasso used to get us White (crap).
2021: 20 picks, 18 of 20 signed (all top 15 picks did), none reached yet. Ricky Tiedemann is a solid prospect though if he can stay healthy. Top pick Gunnar Hogland was part of the trade to get Matt Chapman.
2022: 22 picks, signed the first 17 (15 rounds plus 2 bonus) 19 of 22 signed overall.

Our prospect watchers will know who in each year is really promising, but I tried to list the key guys like Tiedemann. No major missed signings yet. 2017 looks like a flop, but 2018 has potential to be a good one if Barger and Kloffenstein can come through. It seems clear our current GM often sees picks as trade chips though, not hesitating to trade even guys he sees as top prospects like Martin to improve the ML team.

So for the draft keep expectations of the Jays drafting 3 or 4 HOF'ers to a minimum, for every Jeff Kent picked in the 20th round there are many, many, many guys picked who never reach. Even in round 1 we have had 1 HOF'er picked, and 3 top 3 picks that never reached (the infamous Augie Schmidt over Dwight Gooden being the most painful one). The most recent first rounder to be a lock not to ever make it is Jon Harris (2015) who pitched in an indy league last year at age 28. Max Pentecost from 2014 fully retired from pro-ball a few years ago.

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