Jays Payroll for 2022 Set

Tuesday, March 22 2022 @ 10:19 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Well, it seems the Jays have settled everything on the payroll front...for now with all arbitration eligible players settled.

Figures via Roster Resource at FanGraphs

Teoscar Hernandez: $10.65 mil his 2nd year of arbitration
Vladimir Guerrero: $7.9 mil for his first arbitration year
Matt Chapman: 2 year deal $25 mil - $1 mil signing bonus, $12 mil in 2022, $12 mil in 2023 covering his arbitration years
Ross Stripling: $3.79 mil in his final year of arbitration
Danny Jansen: $1.95 mil in his first year of arbitration
Adam Cimber: $1.575 mil in his second year of arbitration
Trevor Richards: $1 mil in his first year of arbitration
Ryan Borucki: $825k in his first year of arbitration
Cavan Biggio: $2.123 mil in his first year of arbitration
Tim Mayza: $1.25 mil in his first year of arbitration
Trent Thornton: $850k in his first year of arbitration

Pre-Arbitration guys like Bo Bichette generally get the minimum or just a bit over ($700k for 2022)

Non-arbitration or pre-arb contracts (mostly free agent ones) are...

George Springer: $29,666,667 (drops to $24,166,667 in 2023 and stays there through 2026)
Kevin Gausman: $21 mil (increases by $1 mil in 2024, and another $1 mil in 2025, ends after 2026)
Hyun Jin Ryu: $20 mil ($20 again in 2023 then a free agent)
José Berríos: $10,714,286 (signed through 2028 but an opt out after 2026, increases every year to $24,714,286 in each of the last 2 years)
Yusei Kikuchi: $16 mil ($10 mil in each of 2023, 2024)
Randal Grichuk: $10,333,333 (same in 2023 then a free agent)
Yimi García: $4.5 mil ($5.5 next year, $5 mil in 2024 as a team option)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: $4,928,571 (up to $5,828,571 next year then a free agent)

So pre-signed guys = $117,142,857 (8 players)
Arbitration players = $45,412,500 (11 players including Chapman's signing bonus of $1 mil)
Pre-Arbitration players = $4,900,000 (7 players at ML minimum)
Extra if Phelps makes the team = $1,050,000 (contract is $1.75 mil if he makes the team, so $1.05 mil more than the minimum)

Total = $162,560,257 - Roster Resource adds another $9.1 mil for the rest of the 40 man roster I'm guessing (13 x $700k = $9.1 mil). For Luxury Tax purposes you need to add an extra $20 mil roughly (benefits, the Jays portion of the pre-arb bonus pool, etc.) putting the net total at a Jays record smashing $191,236,310 (previous highest is $167,138,865 in 2018 via Cot's Contracts at Baseball Prospectus).

For the Jays future there is lots of room going forward as the 'already settled' deals go down by $5 mil next year (not factoring in that Chapman's moves to settled) without losing a single player, then down to $78,880,953 in 2024 as Ryu, Grichuk, and Gurriel come off the books. 2025/2026 sees it drop to $65,880,953 as Kikuchi's deal runs out. 2027/28 are just $24,714,286 for Berrios if he doesn't opt out. Of course, each year also sees some jumps.

Arbitration eligibility - note: if sent to the minors then some guys could see this shifted back a year.
2023: Year 1 arbitration: Bo Bichette, Jordan Romano; Year 2 arbitration: Danny Jansen, Trevor Richards, Ryan Borucki, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Trent Thornton; Year 3 arbitration: Teoscar Hernández, Adam Cimber. Chapman already signed for this year at $12 mil.
2024: Year 1: Julian Merryweather, Alejandro Kirk, Santiago Espinal; Year 2 and beyond match above except Teoscar Hernández who ages out and becomes a free agent as does Chapman.
2025: Year 1: Alek Manoah, Andrew Vasquez, rest as in 2024 but up another year as Danny Jansen, Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards, and Ryan Borucki all hit free agency
2026: Year 1: unknown (rookies from this year), rest as 2025 but up another year as the nuclear winter hits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Jordan Romano, and Tim Mayza become free agents (as well as Trent Thornton if he gets that much service time and isn't released by then).

The 2025/6 offseason will be a scary one if the Jays can't get Vlad/Bo signed long term before then, not to mention Romano, Biggio, and Mayza - all key pieces too. Hopefully guys signed as IFA's the last couple of years will be ready to take over by then if needed. I suspect if Rogers wants to keep this team together we'll see $200+ mil in 2023 and for years afterwards though. I suspect we'll start to see guys moved out next winter to make way for kids (such as Gabriel Moreno who is almost ready to catch, displacing Jansen most likely, Jordan Groshans also ready for next year at 2B moving Biggio to the OF, and Orelvis Martinez taking over 3B in 2024 after Chapman becomes a free agent, or even mid 2023 so the Jays can trade Chapman for something). Lots of others will be charging up the system by 2024 (hopefully) to allow the Jays to let Grichuk/Hernandez/Gurriel to walk away and start getting ready for Bo or Vlad leaving after 2025 (lets hope not, but it certainly is more likely than not). With Gausman, Berrios, and Manoah all under team control through 2026 the starting staff is in very good shape, so the pen (always rotating) and lineup will be the big issues going forward.

FYI: new rule change - 28 man roster for April. So add 2 more minimum salary guys.

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