2022 Jays lineup vs 2021

Thursday, March 17 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

So how will our lineup do this year vs last? Lets dig into ZiPS (publicly available) projections to get an idea.

The player changes are fairly simple - 3B will be Chapman, 2B lost Semien, old 3B moves back to 2B (Biggio/Espinal), hopefully a full year of Springer, no Tellez, hopefully Kirk/Jansen will be healthy so we don't see McGuire as the regular again (he had the most playing time at catcher in 2021 despite being removed from the 40 man pre-season).

So a straight compare of 2021 real wRC+ vs 2022 expected wRC+ for each position (2021/2022)

So what does that work out to? By position with 2021 actual stats vs projected 2022 starters (Biggio/Espinal I'm splitting 3-2 due to how LH vs RH plate appearances tend to go, for catcher I'm going 6-4 Jansen/Kirk but keep in mind Moreno is projected with a 100 but if he forces his way up odds are he'll be a LOT better) So an improvement at 5 positions, drop at 2, unknown for DH but net effect will be a drop (more playing time for Grichuk or other backups)

A challenge to say for sure what will happen, especially with the Jays still looking for an improvement or two. Rumors of Ramirez for 2B (137/142), Votto for DH (140/116), and lord knows what else is out there for rumors - 99% of them are crap, but fun to imagine. It is nuts right now. You'd think no one trusts Atkins when he says things are pretty much set. Jays payroll currently projected for a record $181 mil for 2022. Like most here I expect one more hitter to be brought in, although they could be fine as is. I have 11 guys listed there for 2022, 2 more are needed. 3 man catching crew is possible, Otto Lopez and Josh Palacios are both on the 40 man and will try to make it but I doubt either will, and Leo Jimenez is on the 40 man but is far too low in the minors to get a call up. A few NRI's have shots - Mallex Smith is a speed demon but not much else, Nathan Lukes is a decent LH hitter in AAA, Gosuke Katoh is another AAAA guy (infielder) who hit well in AAA last year. Greg Bird a 1B who is destined for AAA. Jordan Groshans & Orelvis Martinez are prospects but not up unless there is an injury or they tears apart the minors to a crazy degree. The 3 catchers (Chris Bec, Kellin Deglan, Tyler Heineman) are fighting for backup to Moreno in AAA and possible callup if someone gets hurt in the majors. IMO the Jays will get a decent backup guy before opening day, but lord knows who - if he has a good bat he'll get a lot of DH time, if he is a top fielder then not much hitting time, but lots of 9th innings to give an OF or IF time off. So unless it is a big bat I don't see him affecting the offensive much.

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