As mentioned yesterday, the Blue Jays top 30 prospects returns after a hiatus last season. As you would expect there has been a lot of turnover from the 2019 list. Seven prospects graduated. This includes pitchers Nate Pearson, Alek Manoah, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay. The hitters who graduated are Santiago Espinal, Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire.
Nine prospects are no longer in the organization. Simeon Woods Richardson, Patrick Murphy, Kendall Williams, TJ Zeuch, Yennsy Diaz, Griffin Conine, Riley Adams, Josh Winckowski and Hector Perez. That leaves 14 holdovers, twelve of whom are on this years top 30. The two exceptions are Maximo Castillo and Dasan Brown.
30. Trent Palmer | RHP
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA |
| 2021 |
22 |
DUN |
16 | 16 | 63.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 11.9 | 3.00 |
Trent Palmer was the Blue Jays third round selection in the 2020 draft but obviously didn't make his professional debut until this year. Palmer missed the first month of the season and, when he started pitching, endured a rough June, ending the month with a 7.15 ERA. His main issue that month was walks, he walked twelve in 11.1 innings. The Jays were also being careful with him, limiting him to around two innings per start.
In July they lengthened him to three innings per start, then to four and so on. But at the same time the walks were still an issue. He walked 14 in 13 innings in July, but because he only allowed six hits he was able to keep his ERA to 1.38 for the month.
Palmer improved again in August, walking just 10 in 21.2 innings. He again limited the hits, just nine in those 21 innings. And he threw a no hitter on August 19th, seven innings, ten strikeouts. Palmer was even better in September, just six walks in 17 innings and he threw a second no hitter on September 15th.
Over the course of the season Palmer had a 3.00 ERA and hitters hit just .153 off him. Also, he didn't concede a home run all season. His one area of concern was that he walked a lot of left handed hitters. But he seems to have figured that out midway through the season.
As his walks improved and as he dominated the Southeast League, it was a surprise that he wasn't promoted to Vancouver, but he should expect to start there in 2022.
Palmer is 6'1" and hails from Minnesota. He generally relies on a hard sinker and a plus slider. Some of his walk issues early in the season were attributed to his working on a four seam fastball to complement his sinker. But he couldn't get it to work and abandoned it halfway through the season. He also has a curveball and changeup and when the four seamer didn't work out the Jays wanted Palmer to develop his changeup and throw it a lot in games. Palmer will get back to working on the four seamer in the off-season.
In summary it was a mixed season for Palmer and a surprise that he wasn't promoted. If he can repeat his second half of the season in Vancouver, he could see New Hampshire before the end of 2022.
29. Luis Quiñones | RHP
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA |
| 2021 |
23 |
VAN |
9 | 9 | 39.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 14.8 | 3.00 |
| 2021 |
23 |
NH |
7 | 7 | 36.1 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 12.6 | 5.20 |
Luis Quiñones saw his stock rise considerably with an excellent 2021 campaign. However he did not start the season on the field. Quiñones was given an 80 game suspension in late 2019 after testing positive for nandrolone, a steroid. He returned to the mound on May 27th for the Vancouver Canadians.
Quiñones made nine starts for Vancouver, compiling a 3.00 ERA and striking out 64 in 39 innings. He held hitters to a .190 batting average. However walks were Quiñones' weak spot. In Vancouver he allowed 26 hits in 39 innings but he walked 39, one an inning.
Nevertheless, the Jays promoted him to New Hampshire where he made eight starts with similar results. He struck out 51 in 36.1 innings and he held hitters to a .188 batting average. But again, he walked too many, 26 in 36 innings, an improvement over Vancouver but still too many.
Our own Niall O'Donohoe interviewed Quinones late in the 2019 season and he described his pitches.
“I throw a fastball, slider, curveball, changeup and splitter. I’m a pitcher that likes to throw a lot of fastballs. I like challenging hitters. I think I compete a lot. I never give up. That’s what brought me here because I never gave up. I think that’s one of my best (qualities).”
“For a strikeout pitcher, I would say it is my splitter but like other than my fastball, I would say the curveball is pretty good and the slider.”
“In the college season, I was like 92, 95 or 92 to 94 probably.”
Quiñones potential depends on his ability to limit walks. He can fool hitters but will he be able to fool them at the major league level? I would expect Quiñones to return to New Hampshire to start 2022.
28. Hagen Danner | RHP
Photo from @hagyd
| Year | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA |
| 2021 |
22 |
VAN |
25 | 0 | 35.2 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 10.6 | 2.02 |
After a year with no minor league baseball, one of the biggest surprises at the start of the 2021 season was the conversion of Hagen Danner to a pitcher. Danner had completed three seasons as a catcher without much success, he hit .170 for Lansing in 2019. Danner told Shi Davidi that hitting had lost its fun and he was going to the plate with an anxious mindset.
Before he was drafted Danner was a two way player in high school and pitching was one option for his pro career. After he realised he wasn't going to be able to hit in the major leagues, or even in the minors, pitching was a natural fallback.
Danner worked on his pitching and arm strength during the 2020 lockout and was happy to be assigned to Vancouver to start 2021. Danner had a mid to high nineties fastball and a slider that he thought wasn't very good. But it brought him success in 2021. Danner appeared in 25 games and held hitters to a .171 batting average. He also struck out 42 hitters in 35.2 innings.
As you would expect Danner did get injured in 2021. It is difficult to stay healthy for a full season for any pitcher, more so for someone pitching competitively for the first time in four years. Danner was on the IL from June 4th through July 22nd with a lat strain.
Danner went to the Jays instructional camp in the fall and with the help of video and the Jays pitching lab he worked on his slider. Danner believes it has improved a lot. At instructs Danner was hitting high nineties with his fastball and with the improved slider the Jays were worried they would lose him in the rule 5 draft so they added him to the 40 man roster.
Danner should start 2022 in New Hampshire and if his repertoire is as good as he thinks he could move up and even help the major league team towards the end of 2022.
27. Spencer Horwitz | 1B
Image from MiLB.com.
| Year | Age | Team | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 | 23 | VAN | 389 |
28 | >
1 |
10 |
70 |
66 |
4 |
5 |
.290 |
.401 |
.445 |
| 2021 | 23 | NH | 16 |
2 | >
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
.375 |
.375 |
.875 |
Hitters are going to hit. And that describes Spencer Horwitz. Horwitz hit in Vancouver, he hit in New Hampshire and he hit in the Arizona Fall League. But, and there has to be a but for the number 27 prospect, he is limited defensively, probably a major league first baseman, and he hasn't shown enough power to be a major league first baseman.
Horwitz was drafted in 2019 in the 24th round of the draft. He was one of the key players on the Bluefield side in 2019, hitting .330. After missing 2020 due to the pandemic, Horwitz was assigned to Vancouver to start 2021. Horwitz came out of the gate with the same form as he had in Bluefield, hitting .318 in May. But then he slumped hitting a little over .200 in June and July. But he found his stroke again in August. He hit over .400 from August 8th through September 11th when he was promoted to New Hampshire. During the course of that hot streak Horwitz had a 28-game hitting streak, a record for the Northwest League/High-A West League.
Horwitz told Laura Armstrong in The Star what changed. "He’d make small adjustments — lowering his hands a fraction, giving his bat a little more of a tilt — and get results: “(It) really freed me up and helped a lot.”"
Horwitz got four games in New Hampshire to prepare him for 2022. He just hit .375 in those four games with two home runs. Hitting from the left side should help his prospects generally and help him hit some long balls in New Hampshire.
As you would expect from a good hitter, Horwitz has an excellent eye at the plate, walking more than he struck out in 2021 (70 vs 68).
As mentioned at the start Horwitz fell short in the power department this season but there is a reason for optimism. Along with his improved hitting in the second half of the season, his power was better too. Nine of his 12 home runs came after August 12th.
26. Chavez Young | OF
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 |
23 |
NH |
279 |
15 |
2 |
7 |
35 |
81 |
20 |
3 |
.265 |
.350 |
.409 |
2021 was a mixed bag of a season for Chavez Young. He missed three weeks to injury from May 23 to mid June. He hit .250 in May before the injury and .270 in June after the injury but with no extra base hits. But then he started to get going. He hit .270 again in July but added the extra base hits to get his OPS up to .776. Then in August he hit .302 with an .860 OPS. The Fisher Cats had a disrupted September with numerous cancelled games due to weather and COVID. Chavez tailed off in September but we can discount that month.
So the question is, can Chavez replicate that July and especially August in AAA next season? Chavez is already an excellent outfielder and Baseball America rated his arm as the best outfield arm in the system.
Chavez does have a couple of areas of concern. He is a switch hitter and did have much better numbers facing right handed pitchers. Against the righties he had a .820 OPS whereas it was just .600 against lefties. Another area of concern is his 25% strikeout rate.
Young will be in his age 24 season in 2022. Starting in Buffalo he will have his chance to show he is a potential major leaguer. Improving his hitting against lefties and being a more consistent hitter will get him on the major league radar. Another option would be to drop the switch hitting and just hit from the left side.
25. Eric Pardinho | RHP
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA |
| 2021 |
20 |
FCL |
2 | 2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.00 |
Eric Pardinho pitched in just two games in 2021, on July 2nd and July 8th. He pitched well in those two games, three innings, one baserunner and four strikeouts.
Pardinho had arm trouble in 2019 but it didn't get better and he had Tommy John surgery in early 2020. Pardinho was expected back in May 2021 but had some issues and his return was delayed until July. However after those two starts he experienced more elbow soreness and did not pitch again in 2021.
It is hard to know where Pardinho goes from here. Was his elbow soreness just lingering effects from the surgery and with time he should be back to normal? Or is it a sign of problems with the surgery and recovery that will always be an issue for him? We will not know until the rosters are set for 2022.
Pardinho is still just 20 years old and so he has time to get back on track.
Before his injury Pardinho had success in Bluefield and Lansing. In 2019 at Lansing, Pardinho had an ERA of 2.67 in seven starts, impressive for an 18 year old. Pardinho at the time threw a mid-nineties fastball as part of a four-pitch mix. It remains to be seen what two-and-a-half years off has done to his repertoire.
Depending on how he feels in 2022 you could see Pardinho start in Dunedin to be close to the medical staff or Vancouver if the reins are loose.
24. Joey Murray | RHP
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA |
| 2021 |
24 |
FCL |
1 | 0 | 0.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 27.0 | 13.5 | 27.00 |
Joey Murray pitched two-thirds of an inning this season, during which he gave up a two-run home run and that was it. He also pitched in two Grapefruit League games.
Therefore we have to rely on scouting reports from the 2019 version we saw move through three levels of the system. As a reminder Murray is noted because of the elite level spin he puts on his average fastball. During spring training Murray was saying the had added a little speed to his fastball, taking it from the 89 range to the 91-93 range. And that is about all we know right now. So here is a reprise of some of the 2019 scouting report on Murray.
A 2018 eighth-round draft pick who signed for a $169,600 bonus, Murray rung up an impressive 141 batters in 95-1/3 innings in his final season at Kent State. The 2017 and 2018 Mid-Atlantic Conference Pitcher of the Year has been able to continue piling up the K’s in his two-year pro career. He has rung up 11.5 batters every nine innings despite not having an overpowering fastball. His so-called “invisi-ball" clocks in from 87-92 (now reportedly 91-93) miles per hour but its high-spin rate has generated lots of swings and misses. Dunedin pitching coach Jim Czajkowski-who also coached Murray in Vancouver-told MiLB.com that the invisi-ball has made hitters look foolish.
The way that he strikes people out, sometimes with the 89-mph fastball right at their belt, it's kind of embarrassing to swing through. But it happens, it's funny. Yeah, I thought he did very well. ... He competes extremely well for us.
A deceptive delivery is cited as another key to Murray’s success. According to 2080Baseball.com, the deception is created by “a three-quarters arm slot due to a long arm-path and explosive lower body sequence" also helps Murray’s fastball play up. The fastball is part of the standard four-pitch mix that includes an average slider and curveball and a below-average changeup that did show signs of progress according to Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler.
If we assume Murray is good to go for 2022 he would likely start in New Hampshire, given the amount of time he missed this year and progress from there.
23. Josh Palacios | OF
Photo from @p_lo_numero1
| Year | Age | Team | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 | 25 | BUF | 54 |
2 | >
0 |
0 |
5 |
16 |
1 |
2 |
.241 |
.349 |
.278 |
| 2021 | 25 | TOR | 35 |
0 | >
0 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
.200 |
.293 |
.200 |
| 2021 | 25 | FCL | 4 |
1 | >
0 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
.500 |
.750 |
.750 |
| 2021 | 25 | DUN | 2 |
0 | >
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
2021 was an unusual season for Josh Palacios. He had just 95 at-bats for the season but 35 of those were in the major leagues. Palacios made his major league debut on April 9th after Teoscar Hernandez was placed on the COVID IL. In ten games Palacios hit .250 with a .603 OPS.
After returning to Buffalo Palacios suffered a hand injury in his sixth game back that led him to miss three months. He returned on a rehab assignment on August 5th and finally made it back to Buffalo on August 13th. After seven games in Buffalo, Palacios was recalled to the Jays on August 27th. Palacios had not hit well in his return to Buffalo and so his recall was unexpected. It can be difficult to come back from a hand injury, they take time to heal properly. Palacios unsurprisingly went 0-7 in Toronto before being sent back down again.
When you look back at Palacios' 2021 season it was sort of a lost season even though he made his major league debut. As mentioned he had under 100 at-bats and many of those were returning from a hand injury. Palacios did have a good spring training and knows more about what he needs to do in the major leagues. But he didn't have time to work on those things.
Palacios is 26 now and time is running short. With a fully recovered hand Palacios needs to hit the ground running in 2022 and get another shot at the big leagues.
Through 2019 Palacios looked like a decent player but one that seemed just short of what it takes to be a major leaguer. His batting average was good, generally around the .280 mark in most of his minor league stops. He had a decent eye and some pop as well as speed. But to be a consistent major leaguer he needed to take an extra step up. His 2021 spring showed that he might have been taking that step but then came his derailed 2021.
Palacios should be back in Buffalo to start 2022, the Jays have a crowded outfield. He needs to show some more development in 2022 to get a longer look in the majors. Palacios is still on the Jays 40-man roster so he should be first in line for a promotion.
22. Tanner Morris | 2B/SS
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 |
23 |
VAN |
397 |
19 |
3 |
7 |
58 |
90 |
4 |
1 |
.285 |
.381 |
.401 |
Which Blue Jay swung and missed at the fewest strikes? Tanner Morris at 5.5%
Who had a higher OBP than Otto Lopez? Tanner Morris (and others).
Who ranked fifth among Blue Jay hitters in line drive percentage? Tanner Morris (just behind Kevin Smith)
Morris is a bit of a sleeper within the Jays system. He was a fifth round pick in 2019 out of Virginia. He played most of the season as a 23 year old. Morris has only played for Vancouver as a Blue Jay, 64 games in 2019 when Vancouver was a short season team and 103 games this year. Morris played around the infield in 2021, accruing time at second, third and shortstop.
Morris hit .250 and .265 in May and June before improving to .326 in July and .299 in August. He also has a good eye at the plate, walking in 12% of his at-bats. He struck out in 19% of his PA's but as a left-handed hitter he struck out over 30% of the time against left handed pitchers. However, being better against right-handed pitchers is an advantage in the majors where there are more right-handed pitchers than left.
The weakness in Morris' game is his power. He hit just seven home runs along with 19 doubles.
If Morris could get stronger and add some more clout to his game he could be a sleeper second base candidate in a couple of years. Morris will start 2022 in New Hampshire.
21. Chad Dallas | RHP
Photo from MiLB.com
| Year | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA |
| 2021 |
21 |
N/A |
0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
Chad Dallas is another 2021 draftee who did not play in a Blue Jay game. Dallas was drafted in the 4th round by the Jays and signed for $500,000. When drafted Dallas had already thrown 103 innings for Tennessee and the Jays decided that was enough. Like many of the other 2021 draftees we haven't seen Dallas pitch and we rely on his scouting reports from when he was drafted.
A transfer from Panola (Texas) JC, Dallas led Tennessee with 21.1 innings in the shortened 2020 season and posted a 2.53 ERA in the process. While he didn’t quite hold opposing teams to that sterling mark this spring, Dallas did impress over 15 starts and 90.2 innings, with a 4.27 ERA and standout strikeout and walk numbers. He struck out 106 batters (10.5 K/9) and walked 19 (1.9 BB/9) and had the fourth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among SEC pitchers who started 10 or more games. He’s been mostly a three-pitch arm this spring, with an average fastball that sits in the 91-93 mph range but has been up to 97, with both a curveball and a slider—pitches he improved over the offseason. The curve is a hard downer in the 79-81 mph range that is effective against righties and lefties, while the slider sits in the mid 80s with late and hard bite that makes it an effective swing-and-miss offering inside and out of the zone. Dallas has flashed a mid-80s changeup as well, but he rarely uses it and it’s a distinct fourth pitch at the moment. Dallas’ arm action gets a bit lengthy in the back with some plunging action, but he’s been a strong strike-thrower for two years now and scouts have confidence he can start at the next level, with the sort of breaking stuff that should be able to miss pro bats.
Join us tomorrow for more of the Blue Jays top 30 prospects.
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