Prospects - How valuable are they really?

Lets start with the best of the best...

Jays in the top 10 Baseball America list ever.  Years are the upcoming season (named in the offseason)

#1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the only one here in 2019

#2: No Jay ever ranked here

#3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2018, John Olerud 1990

#4: Carlos Delgado 1993, Alex Gonzalez 1994, Vernon Wells 2000

#5: Delgado1994

#6: Shawn Green 1995, Alex Rios 2004, Travis Snider 2009 (oops)

#7-10: Nate Pearson 2020, Alex Gonzalez 1995, Bo Bichette 2018/2019, and Jose Silva 1994

Vlad, Olerud, Delgado, Wells, and Alex Gonzalez #1) with only Alex Gonzalez was a non-star (11.2 WAR 8 years as an everyday player plus 5 more with part time play or injuries)

#6-10 was still dang good but not a lock 4 stars/regulars (Green, Rios, Alex Gonzalez, Bo) plus 1 total flop (Silva had negative WAR for his career), 1 failure (Snider - 4.3), and 1 TBD (Pearson with negative WAR so far in his career but still too soon to write him off).

So top 10 overall was a safe bet as a rule to at least play everyday and all of them made the majors. Jose Silva reached with Pittsburgh but was part of a package that got Carlos Garcia, Orlando Merced and Dan Plesac (geez was Gord Ash a terrible GM).

What about the rest of the top 100?

#11-25 includes...

Big success: Wells, Halladay (twice), Derek Bell, Vlad

Made it: Travis d'Arnaud, Daniel Norris, Mark Whiten

Fails: Snider, Dustin McGowan, Eddie Zosky, Anthony Alford (technically could still become something good but very unlikely)

26-50 includes...

So by the bottom 50 you get lots of fails while the big successes often were ranked here early and climbed up higher before reaching and staring. Lots of 'made it' which I see as never being a real star but was a solid producer for awhile or a reliever. One can argue about exactly where to put guys but flops are 'best is Travis Snider', for made it best is Aaron Sanchez types (very good but uneven will always be someone you go 'what if' with), Big success = thank goodness we didn't trade him or 'curse you Gord Ash'

What about the Jays top 10-30 every year?  Let's look.  Using Baseball America as they have done this the longest and are well regarded.

So the #1's have... (WAR in brackets), SS=Silver Slugger, GG=Gold Glove, AS=All-Star

Big Success:  Wells (twice 28.6, 3 GG 3 AS, SS), Rios (27.3 2 AS), Vlad (3 times, 9.4 AS and probably SS this year too)

Did OK:  League (2.7 - AS reliever), Lind (12.7, SS), d'Arnaud (4.4, SS), Sanchez (twice 9.5 AS), Norris (5.4)

Flop: McGowan (twice 1.6), Snider (twice 4.3), Stewart (-1.7), Drabek(-0.1), Alford (0.0), Phelps (3.2)

TBD: Pearson (twice -0.1)

Ugh, not as good as I hoped - 6 flops (not really regulars, platoon at best or meh start/relief) covering 7 seasons out of 22 (roughly 1 in 3 seasons).  For a prospect to be worth holding you want a guy getting 5+ WAR lifetime or doing something of note (AS, regular for a long time, whatever)

113 unique players in the #2-10, by my rough count 12 made All-Star teams (easily could've missed some) - Aaron Hill; Aaron Sanchez; Alex Rios; Bo Bichette; Brandon League; Brett Cecil; Henderson Alvarez; Marcus Stroman; Michael Young; Noah Syndergaard; Orlando Hudson; Vladimir Guerrero

So a fair amount of success there.  Suggests a 1 in 10 chance roughly of a guy in the top 10 being a future All-Star (although a few were of the reliever type where one lucky first half could sneak you in).  A lot of 'never were' guys there too plus one who became a damn fine manager in Kevin Cash.  I'm sure if we check the #11-20 and 21-30 we'd see less success (logically). but this gives you an idea of what quality you get from a top 10 prospect.  Some years were better than others obviously (the mid 00's were a nightmare as one can see).

So if the Jays give up one of their top 10 prospects we are looking at a 1 in 10 chance of them being really good.   1 in 3 for the #1 guy of being worth holding.

Current top 10 via MLB.com in order...

Gabriel Moreno, Orelvis Martinez, Jordan Groshans, Gunnar Hoglund, Otto Lopez, Miguel Hiraldo, Adam Kloffenstein, Estiven Machado, Kevin Smith, Manuel Beltre - 6 are listed as SS (plus 3B 3 times, 2B once), Lopez as INF/OF, 2 pitchers, plus a catcher in Moreno.  History suggests a majority won't make it as a regular, that Moreno has only a 1 in 3 chance of being a very solid guy (10+ WAR or All-Star).

So how much do you risk if you trade, say, Martinez and Groshans and Kirk (lets imagine him as a top 10 prospect still)?  All 3 would be top 100 guys, but not top 10.  Lets be generous and say they are all top 50's.  11-50 had 26% shot at stardom (Green), 44% at 'meh' (JPA), 29% at 'crap' (Snider).  If you get a star for those 3 you are giving up roughly an 80% chance of having 1+ star out of them for super cheap, a near lock that at least one would be 'meh', and an 88% chance of one failing.  This isn't a perfect evaluation but it does give a strong idea of what kind of risk the Jays would take if they sent 3 top prospects to get 1 all-star.  If they sent 2 of them then the odds of losing a star drops to 54%, of having one of the 2 flopping 59%.  Both flopping = 8.5%, both stars = 7.2%.  However, the other end is you need stars NOW (possible for Kirk or Groshans), not 3-5 years from now (Martinez likely window).  If they are top 10 in MLB then the risk goes through the roof of giving up a star for short term gain.  The latest rumors suggest the Jays want Ramirez &  Bieber &/or Clase (odds are Cleveland will be rebuilding until those guys are near FA again).  Might mean a 2013 type trade where a lot of kid talent goes away but it might also push the Jays deep into the playoffs in 2022 and 2023.  I doubt it happens but boy would it be nuts if it did.

What will the Jays do?  I suspect it depends on budget.  Given we suspect it is high I expect them to be aggressive in free agency for 3B (try to get a guy to convert from SS) while living with Biggio/Espinal at 2B or vice versa.  Groshans will have a chance to play in AAA as will Lopez (sharing SS/2B/3B with Smith) creating a logjam which will be used to acquire more pitching most likely.  I expect when they do give in and make a trade they will accept that one of the guys lost will be painful in a few years but reaching the playoffs would cut that pain a lot.  I know in the 90's it hurt to see Kent be a 50+ WAR guy in exchange for a few months of David Cone but that 1992 WS banner will hang forever.